FXUS66 KSGX 071658
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SUN NOV 7 2004

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO 
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO 
MONDAY...THEN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE NEXT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST MOSTLY COSMETIC WORDING FOR THE RAIN 
CHANCES SNOW LEVELS. THE FIRST OUTER BAND OF RAIN HAS LOTS OF GOOD 
RAIN AND SOME TSTORMS IN IT AND WAS TOYING WITH US JUST OFF THE 
COAST. NOW THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ASHORE IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO 
COUNTY. AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND THIS MORNING...EXPECT MORE THIS 
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH MORE 
CONVECTION AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO 
SPIN OFFSHORE CENTERED AROUND 30N AND 120W...ABOUT 300 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. IT IS MOVING EAST. MODELS FORECAST IT TO 
MOVE NORTHEAST MORE INTO SOCAL...BUT OUR NORTHERN AREAS MAY ESCAPE 
TOO MUCH RAIN IF IT STAYS SOUTH. NOT MUCH WIND OR SNOW 
EXPECTED...THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL GET THE MOST OF BOTH SINCE SNOW 
LEVELS WILL BE ABOUT 6000 FEET. OVERNIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE 
BUT THE CHANCES IN THE DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY GO UP. THE LOW HEADS 
TOWARD NEVADA MON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END NEAR THE COAST AND DESERTS 
IN THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MTNS DURING THE DAY. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BENEFICIAL STORM NOT THREATENING US WITH LOTS 
OF PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING...SNOWFALL OR WIND. ONLY TSTORMS IF THEY 
LAST VERY LONG COULD CAUSE A LOCAL PROBLEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS 
THAN 0.5 INCH NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH IN THE MTNS. 
A TRANSITORY RIDGE BETWEEN CUTOFF LOWS WILL BRING DRY FAIR WEATHER 
TUE THROUGH THU...MAYBE. THE NEXT CUTOFF LOW IS ANOTHER PUZZLE...NOW 
FORECAST BY MODELS TO ARRIVE IN SOCAL WED NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE 
OF RAIN THU AND FRI. THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO DO A NUMBER OF THINGS 
DIFFERENTLY BEFORE THEN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSGX.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

$$

MM