FXUS63 KICT 232018
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FCST NUMBERS BELOW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME 
COOLER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL(LATE NEXT WEEK).

TNGHT
MODIFIED SNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. SFC-850MB THETA E AXIS IS 
SITUATED FROM ARK CITY NORTHWARD TO KSLN. THE COMBINATION OF 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING REACHED ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC 
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO STORMS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS ALONG WEST OF THIS 
THETA E AXIS. THE IN-HOUSE ETA MODEL SHOWS SOME ISOLD CONVECTION 
TRYING TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EVENING 
HRS. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

SUN-MON
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THETA E AXIS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY 
WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY...HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A RENEGADE STORM 
OR TWO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE WILL KEEP DRY FCST 
IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA AND SHOULD 
REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

TUES
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRNT STALLING OUT IN NEBR WAS MENTIONED 
YESTERDAY AND IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SO WILL INCH TEMPS UP A BIT 
THIS PERIOD AND KEEP THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT GOING.   

EXTENDED: WED-SAT
WHEN WILL THE COOLER AIR FINALLY REACH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS THE 
BIG QUESTION...AS UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS STRANGLE HOLD OVER THE 
CENTRL PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRNT TOO FAR 
SOUTH AND ONCE AGAIN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS SOUTHWARD FRNTL 
ADVANCE. WILL REVERT BACK TO WARMER SIDE OF FENCE AND RAISE TEMPS UP 
SOME FOR WED/THUR. THESE VALUES COULD BE RAISED EVEN MORE BY LATER 
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY IF FRNT REMAINS NORTH OF CWA WHICH APPEARS TO BE 
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD 
PUSH THIS FRNT INTO AND POSSIBLY THRU OUR CWA WOULD BE IF WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRNT IN NEBR. IF THAT CONVECTION 
DOESNT PANOUT THEN ITS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE TRIPLE DIGIT STREAK 
COULD CONTINUE WITH SFC FRNT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FINALLY MAKE A MAJOR 
CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD DISLODGE THE STRANGLE HOLD OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE GULF OF 
ALASKA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THUS FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. THEN TAKE 
UP RESIDENCE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE US IN 
A NW FLOW REGIME ALOFT COME THUR NGHT...WHICH COULD FINALLY PUSH A 
FRNT SOUTHWARD LATE THURS INTO FRI. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR THAT TIME 
FRAME AS WELL. 


FCSTID = 15/JAKUB
ICT   74 103  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
HUT   74 104  73 105 /  20  10  10   5
EWK   73 104  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
EQA   73 103  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
WLD   74 103  75 104 /  20  10  10   5
RSL   73 104  71 105 /  10   5   5   5
GBD   74 104  72 105 /  10   5   5   5
SLN   74 106  74 107 /  10  10  10   5
MPR   73 104  74 104 /  20  10  10   5
CFV   73 103  75 102 /  10   5   5   5
CNU   72 103  73 102 /  10   5   5   5
K88   72 103  73 102 /  10   5   5   5
.ICT...
KS...NONE.

$$