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National Situation Update: Saturday, December 31, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: 

Friday and Saturday morning heavy rain and wind will increasingly focus on northern and central California plus southwest Oregon. Later Saturday, the rain will shift southward toward the counties north of Los Angeles. Precipitation will be lightening up over the Pacific Northwest tonight and Saturday, but locally heavy snow will shift eastward into eastern Washington, Idaho and the northern Rockies. On Sunday, a new storm will bring additional rain to Oregon and California. Late Sunday, the rain will expand southward toward Los Angeles. On Monday, rain will continue over California.

The counties north of Los Angeles could pick up as much as 7 inches early in the week, causing mudslides and flooding in the burn areas.

Winds will gust as high as 40 to 50 mph from San Francisco into the Central Valley early Saturday. Winds will be strong across western portions of Oregon and Washington.

Midwest:

By late Saturday snow over Michigan will be in the 3-to-8-inch range. A new storm will take shape Sunday with snow and wintry mix developing across the Dakotas, Nebraska and Minnesota while rain increases around the southern Great Lakes. On Monday, snow will be confined to Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin and Minnesota with some sleet mixed with the lingering rain over Iowa and the mid-Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms could sweep eastward across the Ohio Valley with rain over the remainder of the Great Lakes' region. On Tuesday, yet another emerging storm could bring snow and mixed snow and rain to the northern Plains. (Source: NOAA/NWS and various media outlets)

California Severe Storms and Flooding

The 2005-06 Winter Storms are a series of large warm winter storms with the possibility of 1” to 6” of precipitation over most of northern California.  This series of storms dangerous is because they follow a wet pattern of weather that has left the region’s soil saturated.  Conditions are consistent with the possibility of flooding, landslides, and possible levee failures.

The San Francisco Bay area and counties farther north bore the brunt of the storms Friday and will again on Sunday. The National Weather Service is warning that significant flooding was possible on Russian River at Guerneville in Sonoma County by Saturday afternoon. Major flooding is expected on the Susan River in Susanville and Johnstonville areas. Coastal areas such as Santa Cruz and Sonoma were especially at risk of mudslides and flooding. The snow level in the Sierra Nevada range was expected to drop to 7,000 feet, which would help water managers as snow would stay in the mountains and not add to the rainfall totals.

The Flood statement issued by NWS for northwest California includes reports of river levels at or near monitor stage on the Russian River, Cosumnes River, Smith River, Trinity River, Navarro River, Klamath River, Redwood Creek, Mad River, Van Duzen River, Susan River, and Eel River.  For southern California, a Flash Flood watch has been posted for the burn areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties for Saturday and a Flood Watch has been posted for the San Joaquin Valley and the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. 

In the Delta on Saturday 20-30 mph winds gusting to 40 mph are forecast, and a significant high tide period and a low pressure front are also predicted. The combined effects of these three conditions coupled with high run-off flows could produce wave wash erosion on Sacramento delta levees.

Five minor incidents have been reported to date and are being handled by the local maintaining agencies: levee erosion at Middle Creek in Lake County; flood debris stuck in train trestle on Susan River in Lassen County; bank erosion on the Georgiana Slough in Sacramento County; sinkhole and two-inch cracks in toe levee on the Georgiana Slough in Sacramento County; and seepage at RD 150-Merritt Island on the Sacramento River in Yolo County. Major road closures include U.S. 101 in Mendocino County due to a major slide.  Slides are also reported on Hwy 96, north of the Hoopa Reservation and on Hwy 1, north of Jenner in Sonoma County.

California Office of Emergency Services activated the state, coastal, and inland EOCs at 0700 (1000 EST) Friday.  Locally, the Del Norte and Humboldt County EOCs remain activated and Sonoma County will activate their EOC today.  Emergency proclamations have been issued by Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.  Siskiyou County has declared a local emergency.  All other state operational areas are monitoring the situation.

There are no reports of evacuations currently underway.  Evacuations that have taken place follow:

• Mendocino is sheltering 17 evacuees at local motels in Fort Bragg along with two pets (ARC in charge)
• Humboldt is sheltering 8 evacuees at local motels in the Meyer's flat area, Unknown amount in the Rio Dell area at this time (ARC in charge)
• Del Norte is sheltering 22 evacuees at local motels and 17 pets (ARC in charge).

The Red Cross has 7 shelters on pr?epared and on standby.  None are currently occupied.  The shelters are located in Humboldt, Del Norte, Napa, Siskiyou, and Sonoma counties.  Two additional shelters are planned in Shasta County

The Coastal Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC), Inland Regional Emergency Operations Center, and State Operations Center (SOC) were activated and staffed beginning at 0700 Friday on a 24-hour basis. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local level. No request for State or Federal assistance has been received.  A FEMA Liaison reported to the state EOC for coordination purposes Friday. (Region IX)

Texas Wildfires

Since December 4, 2005, the State of Texas has experienced approximately 114 fires in 39 counties burning over 13,000 acres.  There were reports of 15 wildfires throughout Texas Friday. It remains the intent of the State of Texas to attack all fires with all available resources to reduce the ability for that fire to reach catastrophic conditions.

Elevated fire danger risks will continue through early next week. On Saturday, strengthening southwest winds will combine with a dropping relative humidity to briefly approach Red Flag criteria. Extreme fire weather conditions will likely be met on Sunday, as west winds gusting over 40 mph combine with humidity values approaching 10 percent.

Preliminary reports indicate that there are four fatalities in the State of Texas as a result of wildfires (unofficial).  Statewide 250 homes are reported destroyed.

The State of Texas continues to build fire response resource capability and capacity to meet the increasing wildfire threat. Within the last 24 hour period additional rotary wing and fixed wing aircraft and ground response assets have been pre-positioned. The use of rotary wing aircraft during high-wind conditions will be limited. Local fire response organizations are being warned to make every preparation for ground response. Immediate reporting and response to all fires is key and essential.

The SOC increased activation from Level II (Escalated Response Conditions) to Level I (Emergency Conditions) to coordinate response to the increased threat of wildfires in the state. Coordination conference calls are being conducted with responding agencies and organizations.

The American Red Cross (ARC) has opened shelters and respite centers for victims of wildfires in Brown County, Hood County, Callahan County, and Cooke County. (Region VI and State of Texas)

Oklahoma Wildfires

The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) remains activated to support local fire departments and other first responders who have been battling wildfires statewide.

More than 25,000 acres have burned across the state since wildfires broke out on Tuesday.

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) has received reports of wildfires occurring in the following 23 counties – Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw, Cotton, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Hughes, Johnston, Love, McCurtain, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Oklahoma, Okmulgee, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole and Tulsa. The largest ongoing fires are in Bryan and Okfuskee counties.

One fatality and four injuries (two involving firefighters) have been reported. Nearly 100 homes and businesses have been destroyed and many more have sustained damage due to the wildfires. Another 50 outbuildings have been destroyed across the state.

To bolster Oklahoma’s firefighting efforts the Governor authorized the State Agriculture Secretary to request 14 firefighting teams from other southern states.  Teams from Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and North Carolina responded immediately and were en route to Oklahoma yesterday. In addition to the firefighting teams from other states, the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the U.S. Forest Service will base four air tankers in Ada and Ft. Smith, Ark. A State Incident Command Post (ICP) is being established at the Shawnee Expo Center as a base for the firefighting teams and to provide a central location for requests for assistance from state fire departments.

The NWS forecast for the state remains dry for the next seven days. As a result, there will be no real improvement to the fire weather conditions. Increased winds and a dry line associated with these low pressure systems will result in extreme fire danger on Sunday and likely again Tuesday in much of Oklahoma.  A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday in Oklahoma in all but the extreme southeast and the northwest sections. Easy fire ignition and rapid fire spread is expected as the humidity falls below 20 percent, with winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph. (Region VI, State of Oklahoma)

Mount St. Helens Lava Movement

Roughly every three seconds, the equivalent of a large dump truck load of lava -- 10 cubic yards -- oozes into the crater of Mount St. Helens, and with the molten rock comes a steady drumfire of small earthquakes. The unremitting pace, going on for 15 months now, is uncommon. Experts say it is unclear what the activity signifies or how much longer it will continue.

It's not entirely clear where the lava is coming from. If it were being generated by the mountain, scientists would expect to see changes in the mountain's shape, its sides compressing as lava is spewed out. That suggests resupply from greater depths, which normally would generate certain gases and deep earthquakes. Neither is being detected.

Scientists -- keenly aware of the potential damage that silica-laced ash can pose to jet engines -- monitor St. Helens closely for plumes of smoke and ash. Some have gone as high as 30,000 feet. The Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2). This alert level is declared by USGS-CVO when monitoring and evaluation indicate that processes are underway that have significant likelihood of culminating in hazardous volcanic activity but when the evidence does not indicate that a life- or property-threatening event is imminent.

Tropical Activity

Tropical Storm Zeta is about 1,000 miles southwest of the Azores and poses no threat to land. A weakening trend is expected today and Zeta is forecast to decrease to Tropical Depression strength on Sunday.

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)