NOUS41 KWBC 221725 CCA PNSWSH PUBLIC INFO. STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-25 CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 120 PM EDT MON APR 22 2002 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES FROM: JAMES E. LEE CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH SUBJECT: CORRECTION - NEW NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE...EFFECTIVE MAY 1 2002 ...CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIERS FOR NEW PRODUCTS...NOTED BELOW... ON MAY 1 2002...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN DISTRIBUTING A NEW PRODUCT...THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX. THE NEW PRODUCT SUITE WILL INCLUDE A SET OF GRAPHICS DEPICTING THE PROBABILITY OF THE AVERAGE DAILY HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING SELECTED THRESHOLDS FOR THE CONTINENTAL U.S. A COMPANION TEXT PRODUCT WILL ALSO BE ISSUED WITH THE SAME DATA IN TABULAR FORM. THE FORECASTS WILL BE PREPARED AT THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ AND WILL BE ISSUED DAILY AROUND 3 PM EDT. THE PRODUCTS WILL COVER THE PERIOD FROM THREE TO SEVEN DAYS AHEAD. THESE PRODUCTS WILL REPLACE THREE TO SEVEN DAY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX PRODUCTS PRODUCED BY NCEP'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/. THE NEW PRODUCT SUITE IS INTENDED TO GIVE CUSTOMERS AN EARLY INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. THE HEAT INDEX IS CALCULATED BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE HUMIDITY AND IS A MORE ACCURATE INDICATOR OF DISCOMFORT THAN THE TEMPERATURE ALONE. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR DANGER DUE TO HEAT RELATED STRESS IS AN AVERAGE DAILY HEAT INDEX OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE HEAT INDEX IS CALCULATED FOR EACH LOCATION BASED ON HPC FORECASTS. THEY ARE CONVERTED TO PROBABILISTIC VALUES BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE HPC HEAT INDEX FORECAST AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION AND FORECAST DAY. THE GRAPHICS WILL DISPLAY THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN AND WILL INCLUDE CHARTS FOR THE 85...90...AND 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD. PROBABILITIES OF 10...40... 70 PERCENT WILL BE CONTOURED ON EACH MAP. THE TEXT PRODUCT WILL INCLUDE THE DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX FORECAST VALUE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 70/ 75/ 80/ 85/ 90/ 95/ 100/ AND 105 DEGREES. THE FOLLOWING WMO HEADINGS/AWIPS IDS ARE FOR GRAPHICS COVERING THE CONUS. DAY HI WMO HEADING AWIPS ID 3 85 PTNK98 KWNH RBG385 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 3 90 PTNK98 KWNH RBG390 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 3 95 PTNK98 KWNH RBG395 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 4 85 PTNM98 KWNH RBG485 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 4 90 PTNM98 KWNH RBG490 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 4 95 PTNM98 KWNH RBG495 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 5 85 PTNO98 KWNH RBG585 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 5 90 PTNO98 KWNH RBG590 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 5 95 PTNO98 KWNH RBG595 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 6 85 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG685 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 6 90 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG690 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 6 95 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG695 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 7 85 PTNS98 KWNH RBG785 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 7 90 PTNS98 KWNH RBG790 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID 7 95 PTNS98 KWNH RBG795 < CORRECTED AWIPS ID THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST TEXT BULLETIN IS SENT IN TWO PARTS/EAST AND WEST/: AREA WMO HEADING AWIPS ID EAST FMUS23 KWNH PRBEHI < CORRECTED AWIPS ID WEST FMUS24 KWNH PRBWHI < CORRECTED AWIPS ID IN ADDITION...HPC DISSEMINATES THESE PRODUCTS AND RELATED INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET. THE URL ADDRESS AVAILABLE MAY 1 IS /USE LOWER CASE/: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index/ THE FOLLOWING 3- TO 7-DAY CPC HEAT FORECASTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED BY THE REVISED DAY-TO-DAY FORMAT /FOR DAYS 3 TO 7/ FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...BEGINNING MAY 1 2002. ...DISCONTINUED... AVG. HEAT INDEX WMO HEADER AWIPS ID CRITERIA A PTAM90 KWNC RBGHI1 /85F+ FOR 3+DAYS/ CRITERIA B PTAM95 KWNC RBGHI2 /90F+ FOR 2+DAYS/ CRITERIA C PTAM00 KWNC RBGHI3 /95F+ FOR 1+DAY/ STATION PLOT PTNK98 KWNC RBGHX3 /MAX HEAT INDEX/ ...DISCONTINUED... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT ANY OF THESE CHANGES...YOU CAN CONTACT: KEVIN MCCARTHY...DEPUTY DIRECTOR NCEP HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER PHONE: 301-763-8000 X 7304 EMAIL: KEVIN.MCCARTHY@NOAA.GOV OR DAVID REYNOLDS...CHIEF NCEP/HPC FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH PHONE: 301-763-8000 X 7317 EMAIL: DAVID.REYNOLDS@NOAA.GOV THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE ON THE INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm END NNNN