AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
848 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
THE CURRENT RUC RUN SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MAKE IT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GROUP AND
REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING.
SCOTT
FXUS62 KEYW 140034 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
88D KMLB CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SPACE
COAST FROM SATELLITE BEACH TO PALM BAY MOVING NORTHWEST. LATEST RUC
SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT IN PART IS SUPPORTING CURRENT
ACTVTY. LATEST MAPS SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX DIV SHOWS DIVERGENCE MAX
OVER THE STORMS OFFSHORE AND A CONVERGENCE MAX OVER OSCEOLA
COUNTY...WHICH SEEMS RIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY AT A SLOWER RATE THAN YESTERDAY WITH WINDS JUST
ABV THE SFC OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. CAPE SOUNDING
SUGGESTS A MORE ENE STORM MOTIONAT THE LOW LEVELS. NO UPDATED
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...E SWELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT OFFSHORE BUOYS AND HAVE
SEPERATED WIND WAVE FM SWELL. NO OTHER CHGS MADE.
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KTBW 131406 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
...GLOBALLY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN REORGANIZES FROM A 4 TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 5 WAVE PATTERN. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA AND PULL POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. ENERGY FROM YESTERDAYS ALEUTIAN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROF ENERGY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ON WATER VAPOR
APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AROUND THEMSELVES (FUJIWARA?). JET ENERGY
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS WILL FINISH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROF
AROUND 48N/150W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS NEXT COMING WEEKEND
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC STRENGTHENS ALLOWING
100+ KNOT JET ENERGY TO BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK WITH
DEAMPLIFICATION BY THE JUNE 20-22 TIME PERIOD.
THE NET RESULT IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEING DOMINANT. AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS COMING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH
NORMAL 7-9 DAYS FROM NOW.
...LOCALLY...
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AROUND
KMCI MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI WHICH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DSM ALONG WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET...SHEAR ZONE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND APPROACHING COLD POOL AT 500 MB. A MUCH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SETTING OFF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/SC ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS CELLUAR INDICATING THIS IS DIURNAL IN NATURE.
THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SAID SHORTWAVES ARE ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA SLOWLY MOVING ENE. DVN 88D IS PICKING UP MAINLY CLOUDS JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ANY SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES THEN MAINLY
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT ALL WERE NOT RESOLVING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE RUC HINTS AT THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE ETA CATCHES THIS SHORTWAVE BUT LOOSES IT BY 18Z.
THE AVN IS MORE CORRECT IN THE PLACING OF THE NOW COLD FRONT ACROSS
ILLINOIS AT 18Z WHILE THE ETA/NGM ARE CATCHING THE TROF/DEW POINT
FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. 18Z MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SHARP GRADIENT WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 50S AT KALO TO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHEAR ZONE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT WHILE LAPSE
RATES SLOWLY STEEPEN ACROSS IOWA. WITH SHRA/TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING
WILL GO LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. MONDAY PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS AROUND AND FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC SO DIURNAL CU/SC
SHOULD DEVELOP.
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
MOST AREAS BEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE
IN. MODELS INDICATE RESONABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP AND WILL
INTRODUCE LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FWC/FAN NUMBERS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
...EXTENDED...
THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S. LINGERING RAIN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY WITH A HINT OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND SPI.
.DVN...NONE.
NC
FXUS63 KDMX 131917 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
ANALYSIS SHOWS FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE UNDERWAY IN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
SUPPORTED BY DIVING JET INTO DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG
HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM. ALL THIS SUGGESTS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
FORECAST AREA SHOULD AND IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 8 TO 12 HOURS
AS A SHORT WAVE LOCATED AT 06Z OVER SE KANSAS IS HELPING TO CREATE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL UPGLIDE WHICH WILL END NW TO SE BY
LATE PM. LATEST POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AT 06Z WAS LOCATED ALONG
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BURLINGTON IOWA THEN TO WEAK SURFACE LOW SE OF
KANSAS CITY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MOVING SE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
PROFILERS SUPPORT SFC ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WITH
BACKING OF WINDS. AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF CWA..THE CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIP FROM CONVECTION WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST RISK STILL FAR SE ZONES
WHICH LEANING TOWARD CANCELING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY BUT
WILL MONITOR TIL ISSUANCE TIME FOR ANY LAST MINUTE CHANGES IN ONGOING
PRECIP.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING DISSIPATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ALONG WITH TERMINATION OF CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MODELS HANDLE TERMINATION/MOVEMENT OF PRECIP DIFFERENT WITH ETA
WEAKEST AND NGM AND AVN SLOWER AND HEAVIER WITH 06Z RUC UNUSUALLY
HEAVY OF PRECIP AND APPEARS UNRELIABLE THROUGH NOON FOR SE ZONES.
ALL BRING COOLER AIR AND DRIER AIR IN BY EVENING BEHIND FRONT WITH
CLEARING ALL SUGGESTED BY MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LOWER HUMIDITIES AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER DAYTIME CUMULUS FOR MONDAY.
AVN AND NGM SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION FROM WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ENERGY BUT LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION AS CURRENT PRECIP FIELDS ALONG
WITH SATELLITE AND WIND PROFILER FIELDS MATCH BEST WITH ETA VERSUS
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS THOUGH ETA STILL TOO COOL AND GO WITH
FWC/FAN BLEND EXCEPT TODAY WHICH WILL LOWER PARTS OF FORECAST AREA
SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP.
TODAY PARTS OF ZONES WILL SPLIT TODAY TO HANDLE ENDING PRECIP WITH
HIGHEST POPS AND CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST. MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FAR NW WHICH WILL USE PARTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TONIGHT GO
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AS LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAY MINIMUMS. AGAIN...MONDAY LOOKS
NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NGM AS
APPEARS TOO SLOW ON COOL AIR ARRIVING DESPITE SUNSHINE AND ALSO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH DIURNAL MIXING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WILL OPT FOR LESS THAN QUARTER INCH IN SOUTHEAST 5
COUNTIES AND NEAR TRACE BASIN AVERAGES ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
DRY TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED PERIODS ALL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED MAJOR SHIFT IN JET PATTERN
AS UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST WITH CANADIAN
HIGH MOVING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW STRONG SHORT
WAVE WITH HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AS DID EARLIER MRF BUT LATEST MRF/AVN
RUN SUPPORTS WEAKER SOLUTION FOR SHORT WAVE. AGREE WITH MRF/AVN AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CYCLOGENESIS BUT STILL OPT FOR
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WORDING.
COORDINATION...LOT.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDVN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
CID BB 077/056 072/049 064 162-0
MLI MB 078/057 075/052 068 16510
DBQ MB 075/054 071/048 067 162-0
BRL WB 078/059 078/054 071 16730
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
NICHOLS
ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
949 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK BAROTROPIC OCEAN LOW WELL E OF THE LOWER
DELMARVA PENINSULA ATTM MOVING SLOWLY N MIDWAY BTWN THE E OF FALSE
CAPE BUOY AND THE 009 BUOY AT ARND 1013 MB. THIS TRACK IS WELL E OF
THE ERLR FCST TRACKS GOING BACK A FEW MODEL GUIDNC PKGS. IN HIND SIGHT
GUIDNC CONTINUALLY HAD PROBLEMS FCSTG THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE UPR
LOW PRIMARILY FROM THE CST W AND N ALONG THE FCST TRACK. EVEN AT THIS
LATE HR THE 09Z RUC WILL NOT LKLY VERIFY.
IN ANY EVENT TDA WILL BE A MOSTLY CLDY DAY ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA AS
FEATURES ADVECT FROM ENE TO WSW. MC SINCE THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME. LTST RADAR DEPICTS A COUPLE AREAS OF SCT LT
SHWRS VCNTY OF THE XTRM NRN SHENANDOAH VLY N ARS THE MRB/HGR AREAS AND
ANOTHER E TO W AREA OF SCT LT ACTVTY FROM THE CNTRL BAY ACRS THE TIDAL
POTOMAC BLO COLONIAL BEACH TO W OF THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA. ELSW SOME
ISOLD SHWRS. ABV WILL LKLY BE THE STORY FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY.
WHATEVER ACTVTY OCCURS WILL BE MORE OF A MINOR INCONVENIENCE THAN NOT.
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.
.LWX...NONE.
PAP
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1055 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS ARE ENDING SHRA AND CLOUD COVER.
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL FA DURING THE EVENING ALONG
BOUNDARIES. FIRST SHRA DEVELOPED ALONG LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS BOUNDARY THEN INTERACTED WITH COLD FRONT THAT HAD
INTERSECTED LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD
FRONT ATTM LIKELY RUNNING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MUNISING TO EAST OF
KIMT TO SW WI AS WINDS SHIFT NOTICEABLY TO THE NW TO THE WEST OF
THAT LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES ATTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE INTO WI FROM IA. THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS ONTARIO AIDING
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN NE WI/FAR S FA THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...IR IMAGES SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
LAST VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD UPSTREAM
IN NE MN/SW ONTARIO IN A REGION OF STRONG 850MB CAA. MARINE OBS ON W
LK SUPERIOR HAVE SHIFTED FROM SW TO NW IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND THIS LIKELY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE STRONGER CAA.
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WI AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC...WILL NEED TO
CARRY SHRA FOR FAR S/SE COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FRONT
EXITING FA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENHANCING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS
YET. OTHERWISE...STRONG CAA GETS UNDERWAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
6-8C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. 0C LINE REACHES NW LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z.
SCT-BKN STATOCU FIELD ACCOMPANYING CAA WILL OVERSPREAD FA DURING THE
NIGHT...AND CURRENT FA COVERS THIS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD ALREADY OVER FA...WILL JUST GO WITH SIMPLE MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME UNDER CAA REGIME.
RUC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY 12Z RANGE FROM 15 KNTS S TO 25 KNTS N.
THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z FWC GUIDANCE AND 02Z LAMP GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FCST ALSO HANDLES THIS WELL.
CURRENT FCST LOWS ARE ON TARGET BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND
LATEST GUIDANCE. A MUCH COOLER DAY ON THE WAY MON WITH TEMPS 15 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KAPX 140203 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT APX 88D SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE INTO LAKE
HURON... WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.
00Z RUC SHOWING WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVING SLOWLY OVER
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AND PROGGED TO EXIT INTO LAKE
HURON AFTER 12Z MONDAY. RUC ALSO SHOWING AREA 850/700 QVECTOR FORCING
AND EASTWARD ADVANCING 500 MB VORT LOBE... TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FORCING SUPPLIED BY THESE FEATURES WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH 850/500 MB AROUND 80 PERCENT... FOR LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT APX 88D RADAR TRENDS...WILL DROP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED WORDING NORTH CENTRAL LOWER AND LIKELY NORTHEAST LOWER.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KDTX 140202 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1002 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SVR THREAT ONLY MATERIALIZED IN THE FAR SOUTH TDY...WHERE MUCH
SUNSHINE WAS SEEN. THIS AREA HAS BEEN MORE THAN WORKED OVER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVNG...SO SVR THREAT FOR REST OF NIGHT IS MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES IN OUR VERY MOIST
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LVL FORCING INCREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE...AND THE MODELS LOOK TO BE OF LTL
HELP. NONE THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE 18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC...
CAPTURED THE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE LK
MI....JUST NNW OF BEH.
THIS SFC LOW IS A REFLECTION OF A SLOW MOVG S/WAVE...PROGGED TO MOVE
NE TOWARD SAG BAY AND THE THUMB BY MRNG. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT A SIMILAR MOVEMENT FOR THE SFC LOW...WITH MAX FALLS
OCCURRING ALONG BIV/GRR/AMN AXIS. THUS...WL FAVOR A SOLN IN LINE
WITH THE SFC LOW CROSSING THE NRN PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...
INSTEAD OF THE ERN PART LIKE THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE.
ANOTHER ARGUMENT SUPPORTING THIS SOLN IS THE INCREASE IN PCPN AREAL
COVERAGE DURG THE PAST HOUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM BIV TO MBS.
THUS EXPECT WMFNT...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE SFC LOW ROUGHLY
ALONG THE 2ND TIER OF MI COUNTIES...TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS SE LWR MI
DURG THE NIGHT. AS CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS...LOW LVL INFLOW...
CURRENTLY WEAK...WL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS
SHUD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HEAVIEST RAIN WL FALL NORTH OF BNDRY...SO METRO DETROIT SHUD BE
SPARED THE WORST. THIS IS A VERY GOOD THING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT FELL THERE YDAY. THE HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT SHUD BE NORTH OF
I-69...IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN QUITE AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
EXCEPTION IS MIDLAND COUNTY...WHICH GOT QUITE A DOUSING THU AND FRI.
MOST OF THE DANGER AREA IS RURAL AND FLAT...NOT PRONE TO FLOODING.
SO...I WL CERTAINLY CONTINUE THE HVY RAIN WORDING ALL ZONES.
HOWEVER...WL PLAY UP THE HVY RAIN IN THE NORTH...AND PLAY IT DOWN
JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTH. NO FFA. WL ALSO PLAY DOWN TSRA A BIT. TEMPS
WL BE BOOSTED A BIT MOST AREAS SINCE COOL SECTOR WL NOT SURGE IN
UNTIL EXTREMELY LATE TONIGHT OR MON MRNG.
.DTX...NONE.
ZOLTOWSKI
FXUS63 KGRR 132225 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE...
...BREAK OUT FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST COUNTIES FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
...LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WHERE CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
VIS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST LOWER. BEST BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER. SO...WILL OPT FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. MODIFIED MORNING
SOUNDING /TEMPS INTO MID 80S-TDS UPPER 60S/ YIELDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10.
DETERMINING FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC...LOTS OF CHOICES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT PENETRATE
AS FAR INLAND. RAINFALL YESTERDAY WAS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LEAVING WESTERN PORTIONS DRY.
THEREFORE...A BOUNDARY EXISTS BETWEEN THE WETTER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND DRIER WESTERN PORTION. FINALLY...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...FURTHER ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY MIX. SO...REGARDING
LOCATION...BELIEVE ANY AREA IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN COULD HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AGAIN TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DRY
INTRUSION AT MID LEVELS FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION YESTERDAY FIRED
ALONG THIS LINE AS IT MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER. NOTE 12Z
BUF SOUNDING 660 MB TD DEPRESSION OF 38C. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR HAVING DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING WEST. RUC SUGGESTS
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO BE LIMITED TODAY.
HOWEVER TRACK RECORD OF MODELS HANDLING THESE WESTWARD MOVING
SYSTEMS...SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ADEQUATE. CONVECTION BREAKING OUT SO
FAR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IS WELL BEHAVED WITH STORMS SHOWING
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOR
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...EVEN
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAN PRODUCE A BUSY DAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 INCHES. WAVE LOCATED OVER IL PROGGED TO
MOVE TO OH BY LATE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS HISTORY OVER WI/IL OF
PRODUCING COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND LIKE SCENARIO POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER. FLOOD THREAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION AT PRESENT.
.DTX...NONE.
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KMQT 131539 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
...UPDATE FOCUSES ON -RA THREAT IN SE CWA...AND CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...
QUASI-STATIONARY BDRY/TROF OVER E CWA THIS MORNING WITH WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING NE ALONG BDRY. 12Z RUC PROGS 500MB VORT MAX TO
MV NE TO GRB BY 18Z AND EXIT INTO E LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SHORTWAVE
QUITE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OVER E
WI. SFC WAVE ALSO INDICATED BY SFC OBS/MSAS ANALYSIS OVER NE IL AT
15Z. 12Z RUC MAINTAINS QV-CONV OVR E CWA THROUGH 00Z. SFC OBS
INDICATED -RA/RA SHIELD OVR E WI SPREADDING N OF 12ZRUC FCST. PER
COORD WITH APX...WILL INCREASE POPS OVER E COUNTIES FM CHANCE TO
CATEGORICAL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS PRECIP SHIELD OVRSPREADS N LK
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO ADJUST MAX TMPS
DOWNWARD IN THIS AREA.
TO WEST...VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING COLD FRNT FROM DLH-MSP AT
15Z. PROG FRONT TO ENTER SW CWA AT 19Z...WITH WND SHFT TO NW. FRONT
SHOULD REACH MQT-IMT BY 23-00Z...WITH CLEARING BEHIND.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KAPX 131443 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
KAPX 88D LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCT SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER CELLS AROUND GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES.
LATEST IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADAR KGRB SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
MODERATE ISOLD HEAVY RAIN CREEPING NE OUT OF SE WI THROUGH CENTRAL
LAKE MI TOWARD NW LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DPVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPART JET MAX. LATEST RUC
POINTS TOWARD DPVA INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ERN UPR AND
NW LOWER MI ZONES NW OF A LINE FROM HTL TO PRESQUE ISLE. ALTHOUGH...
CURRENT NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS FARTHER N THAN THE POSITION
SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUC. WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI ZONES AS OUTLINED ABOVE.
VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF
500 TO 600...LI'S OF -2 WITH SFC DWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SOLAR HEATING
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE EVEN IN SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL DROP POPS TO MORE OF THE SCT/LIKELY
CATEGORY AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY NW OF THAT AREA.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWNWARD FOR ERN UPR AND
FAR NRN LOWER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.
.APX...NONE.
EME
FXUS63 KDTX 131336 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING CLOUD DECK SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BREAKS EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT
MORE SOLID OVERCAST...JUST WORKING ITS WAY ONTO MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH INDICATING MID LEVEL DRYING TO
BE SLOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE... HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN FORECAST TO INDICATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
WSR-88D INDICATING SHOWERS...ALBEIT LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...BREAKING
OUT ACROSS CWA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED /MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON/
PHRASE FROM FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING...STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...EVENING.
.DTX...NONE
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KGRR 131042 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER IL WILL LIFT INTO SW LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TO CATEGORICAL FOR MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ALSO WILL ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING AS WELL.
.GRR...NONE.
MJS
FXUS63 KMQT 130833 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SPRINKLES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT
MAX OVER SD. 300 MB JET MAX REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SD. THE VORT MAX AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SO
THE THREAT WILL BE EARLY ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. WILL ADJUST THE WORDING A LITTLE.
NEXT FEATURE TO KEY ON IS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND 80KT 300 MB JET
MAX THAT PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. RUC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WITH STRONG 700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY STREAMING SE ACROSS ND AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE NW CWA TONIGHT BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
THE POPS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER SEEING 12Z MODEL
RUNS. 500 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW -20 DEG C OVER ND AND THIS COLD TROF
IS HEADED SE.
.MSP...NONE.
HILTBRAND
FXUS63 KMPX 131531 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
AS PER THE LAST FEW SHIFTS...CURRNT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND TSRA
MOVING ACROSS CWA. FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTED
INTO IA. NOW...TSRA CONTINUE TO GENERATE IN SE NEB ALONG NOSE OF
NEXT SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WV SAT. THE RUC SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THESE
FEATURES THE BEST THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS LAST WV MOVES THRU...GOOD
DRYING BEHIND IT. WILL HAVE PRECIP ENDING TONITE GOING FROM NW ZONES
EARLY TO SE LATE. SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...BUT THINK WITH
ENOUGH DRYING AND NORTH WINDS 5-10 THAT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION NOW.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ON MON AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SKIES STILL
MOSTLY CLEAR THRU MON NITE. NEXT WX MAKER IS WITH LEE LOW IN SE
COLORADO MON NITE. MCS SHUD FORM MON NITE OUT WEST WITH THIS. GOOD
WAA GETTING INTO NW MO BY LATE TUES AFTERNOON ALONG SFC FRONT. WILL
ADD POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. THE BEST CHCS OF PRECIP WILL BE
FOR TUES NITE. MAYBE SOME LINGERING ON WED...BUT THEN ENDING AS WAVE
EJECTS IN NW FLOW.
WILL FOLLOW WARMER FWC FOR TEMPS...BUT ALL MODELS SHOW BIG COOLDOWN
IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
LVQ
FXUS73 KLSX 131033 mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...NO UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. LOOKING AT OBSERVED
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THUS AFTER 00Z
ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING BY 00Z COULD
GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG OR STRATUS IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA WHERE
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT
NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE IN
FORECAST. BORSUM.
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023
FXUS65 KBYZ 131516 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED. LOOKING AT
OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
THUS AFTER 00Z ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING
BY 00Z COULD GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG
OR STRATUS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA
WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST
BUT NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE
IN FORECAST. BORSUM.
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023
FXUS65 KTFX 130924 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES IN UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHC FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS TO CWFA PRBLY INTO START OF AFTN. LEAD UPPER CIRCULATION
PROFILERS INDICATE OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB AND SW IA DURG MRNG AS IT LIFTS OUT ENEWD.
RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING RH FIELD OF THIS FEATURE BEST WHICH WAS
LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FM COMPLEX THAT FORMED FRI NITE OVER WRN HI
PLNS AND THEN MOVED ENEWD ACROSS PLNS SAT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INDICATE HVY RAIN OCCURING IN LOCATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS OR FFS AS CONDTIONS WARRANT.
UPSTREAM SHORT/WV CAUSING SHWRS/TSTMS CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. PER
06Z RUC...ALTHO SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO LKLY
BRING A CHC FOR SHWRS AND FEW TSTMS WITH ITS PASSAGE THRU START OF
AFTN. CLDS TO DECREASE LTR THIS AFTN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU WITH
CLEAR TO PC CONDS LKLY TNGT. MON APPEARS DRY IN CWFA WITH MAIN RISK FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS WRM AREAS OF NEB WITH WAA AND DESTABILIZATION AS LEE LOW
FORMS. WILL PRBLY NEED TO ADD MISSING MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO EXTENDED
FCST TO ADD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS UVV AND DESTABILIZATION SPREAD EWD.
.OMA...NONE
WIESE
ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM SUN JUN 13 1999
CRRNT TREND SHOWS LOW LVL MSTR INCREASING ACRS NYS. RUC ANALYSIS ON
MSTR LOOP SHOWS LOW AND MID LVL RH INCRSG PAST 12 HRS AND RUC FCST
IS FOR TREND TO CONT. MSTR IS DEEPER THAN PREV DAY SO WILL NOT MIX
OUT AS READILY THEREFORE WILL CONT WITH MSTLY CLDY FCST FROM PREV
PCKG. ACRS CNTRL ZNS SOME CU DVLPG AND BREAKS IN CLDS WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HTG WHICH IS MAKING A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH CLD CVR WILL
AFFECT TEMPS. WITH THE INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR THINK THERE WILL BE MORE
CLDS THAN SUN SO WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS BUT GIVE A LARGER RANGE. ACRS
FAR WRN AND NRNN ZNS HTG HAS CAUSED CU FIELD TO DVLP WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE. SYR ALREADY 77 AND PEO, UCA AT 75 AND CLIMBING FAST.
HWVR FEEL THAT INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR WILL CAUSE CU TO FILL IN AND KEEP
TEMPS FM REACHING YESETERDAY'S LVLS. ACRS THE S A FEW SPRINKLES
FALLING OVR ERN PA AND SERN NY BUT NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY. CRRNT 30
PCNT POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THERE.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS71 KBUF 131409 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY PER 00Z
ANALYSIS...W/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. SCT WRAP-
AROUND CLOUDS SKIRTING ILM/S NC ZONES...WHILE WIDELY SCT SHRA N OF
THE AREA QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING W/ LOSS OF HEATING. RUC
PROGS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NNEWD AS IT OPENS UP OVER THE NEXT
12H...MEANING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE WHAT LIMITED INFLUENCE IT
HAS HAD ON THIS PART OF THE CAROLINAS. THE RUC/S SOLUTION IS IN
LINE W/ THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND EARLIER THINKING. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...THOUGH MAY BE A CATEGORY COOLER PEE DEE GIVEN LOWER DWPTS
THERE AND SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. REST OF FORECAST ON TARGET AS
WELL.
CWF: WEAK GRADIENT REFLECTED IN LATEST MARINE WIND OBS...THOUGH 3
FT SWELL PERSISTS. TREND IN CURRENT CWF LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.
.ILM...NONE.
PFAFF
FXUS72 KRAH 140038 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
836 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
LOW NEAR DELMARVA COAST BEHAVING AS EXPECTED. LAST H5 VORT HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND WITH SUNSET SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED.
WILL TAKE POPS OUT OF FIRST PERIOD FOR ALL ZONES. SHOWERS OVR OUTER
BANKS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY ZONE ISSUANCE. WITH RESPECT TO CLOUDS
TNT BOTH MESOETA AND RUC BRING SFC WINDS TO THE SW WITH H7 WINDS OUT
OF THE W. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
FORM HWVR WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW
RAIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN ZONES AS ANY FOG
WILL BE EXTREMELY PATCHY. WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC SOLN OF LOWER MEAN RH
TNT AND GO PARTLY CLOUDY VS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. WED WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG THE BEACHES...PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR A
CHC OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELS STALL A FRONT NEAR THE NC
COAST.
CWF: S WINDS WILL BECMG MORE SW TOWARD MORNING AS LOW OFF DELMARVA
COAST LIFTS N AND FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO ANOTHER LOW AND SFC FRONT
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. WILL ALSO ADJUST CWF A LITTLE FOR WINDS
ON MON. PRES GRAD WILL NOT TIGHTEN UNTIL LATE MON AFTN SO WILL
REFLECT THIS IN WORDING WITH 15 TO 20 KT LATE.
.MHX...NONE.
ORROCK
FXUS62 KILM 131824 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
RUC BRINGS LOW JUST TO NORTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH...AND THAT IS
CURRENTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED JUST OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTION. FAY REPORTED 3/4 MILE
IN HEAVY RAIN LAST HOUR WITH 0.08 IN THE BUCKET.
STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIS IN -1 TO -3 RANGE. BUT AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AND AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY...LIGHTNING STRIKES CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF
LOW. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED.
KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. DO EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY PRESENT...EXPECT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH 2/3RDS OF FORECAST
AREA. INVERSION AROUND 650 MB SHOULD PUT A LID ON THINGS.
CWF...NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
OF 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR.
.ILM...NONE.
DIGIORGI
FXUS62 KMHX 131352 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
IT IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT OUR PRESENT SFC
LOW...MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT 13Z...WILL GIVE ERN NC SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN. GIVEN A MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AND LI'S OF
-4 OFF THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
IN FOR THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY GIVEN BREAKS SHOWING UP ON VIS
SATPIX AND CONTINUED DRYING DEPICTED BY LATEST RUC MODEL. STILL AM
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR MUCH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN
POPPING THRU...WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS UPWARD A BIT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
NEAR OUR AREA IN THE TUES/WEDS TIME FRAME WITH A GOOD CHC FOR SOME
SOAKING RAINS. WE'RE KEEPING OUR FINGERS CROSSED.
COASTAL...ALL THE MARINE OBS SHOWING LGT NW WINDS CURRENTLY. WILL
INTIALIZE WITH NW BECOMING S LATE. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS NEEDED.
.MHX...NONE.
COLLINS
nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT 88D INDICATES CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NW PORTION OF
FA IN AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT SFC RUC DATA INDICATES WRN
TWO-THIRDS OF FA UNSTABLE...WITH HIGHEST CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
ACROSS EXTREME EASTRN IN. THIS INSTABILITY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
YET POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SVR ACROSS FA.
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NGM COMING MORE
AROUND WITH THE ETA. AFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NW OF FA...WILL BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...AS ENTRANCE
REGION OF 25H JET REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN GRT LKS.
85H CONVERGENCE SETS UP ACROSS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH APPROACH OF 85H
FRONT. THIS ZONE OF LLVL FORCING MOVES INTO OUR FA FOR MONDAY. AT
THE SFC...EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ILN FA ON MONDAY. ETA HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTANT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. DRIER
NW FLOW SHOULD MOVE INTO FA FROM THE NW ON MONDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS W...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. WILL GO WIDELY SCT ACROSS SE SECTION.
FOR MONDAY...FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH LIKELY/CATAGORICAL POPS ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLD COVER IS...WILL DIRECTLY
AFFECT TEMPS. WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. WILL CONSIDER THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED.
MISILN OUT SHORTLY.
.ILN...NONE.
DISTEFANO
FXUS71 KRLX 131440 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SOME DRIER AIR...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN
PORTION OF OUR FA. MOISTURE GRADIENT OBSERVED ACROSS CTRL PORTION OF
FA AS NOTED WITH SFC RUC DWPT AND THTA-E FIELDS. WK SFC TROUGH
INDICATED AS WELL EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SW PORTION OF FA...WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE PATTERN. BEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME
SET UP N/S ACROSS WRN PORTIO OF FA.
FEEL BEST CHC OF PRECIP TDY ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. WILL THUS KEEP
POPS AS IS. WILL AGAIN MONITOR WATER VAPOR DEFORMATION ZONE
CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS FA FOR POSSIBLE INDICATOR OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WBZ SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...NEAR 9 KFT. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY AS WELL...WITH DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E BETWEEN 25 AND 30. THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SVR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. POSSIBLE FLOODING INDICATED AS WELL WITH
SLOW MVMNT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS
RECEIVING RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
WILL ADJUST TEMPS A BIT.
MISILN OUT IN A FEW.
.ILN...NONE.
DISTEFANO
FXUS71 KCLE 131345 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF AREA. DESPITE FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-1800J...BOUYANCY CANNOT
OVERCOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW. WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER RUC BUT FLOW WEAK AND
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION.
MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LATER TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE MENTION IN ZONES. MOST CHANGES THIS UPDATE WILL BE COSMETIC.
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS72 KCAE 131430 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
819 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SCT EVE SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING MAINLY SE BETWEEN I-29 AND THE
JAMES RIVER IN SE SD. PCPN AIDED BY UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVING THOURGH
NOR SD ATTM AS SEEN BY THE 21Z RUC AND VERIFIED WELL ON THE WATER
VAPOR. 500-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY THE RUC IN NORTN
PTNS OF THE CWA TIL 03Z...THEN SUBSIDENCE RETURNS. EARLIER FCST OF
20/30 POPS VERIFYING WELL. DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST FOR
PCPN COVERAGE EARLIER THIS EVE ALONG WITH A FEW NOWCASTS.
WL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 00Z MDLS WHEN THEY COME IN FOR ANY NEED OF
CHGS IN THE FCST. ATTM THOUGH ANTICIPATE ANY FUTHER UPDATES TO BE
MINOR.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KUNR 132105 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO MAINLY ADJUST WORDING TO A THICKER CLD
COVER...AND HIT PCPN A LITTLE HARDER IN THE NWRN PTN OF CWA. MID LVL
SHRTWV PASSING OVR AREA TDAY. BOTH NLG AND WDL PROFILERS SHOW
BACKING WINDS BLO 700MB. BASICALLY...HIGH PRES WL KEEP NRLY LLVL
FLOW THRU THE AFTN...AND RUC CORRECTLY SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
FM THE SFC THRU 850 MB...AS DEW PTS CONT TO DROP. CRNTLY...LAPS SFC
BASED LI'S MAINLY SHOW THE CWA AT OR ABV ZERO...WITH THE RUC
PROGGING ONLY A SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION THRU THE AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO
SOME MID LVL COOLING. CRNT CAPES AND ETA CAPE PROGS ARE ARND 500 IS
ALL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND COOL AIR
ALOFT TO PRBLY MAINTAIN SHWRS THAT ARE CRNLY IN NWRN CWA...MOVG
SLIGHTLY EWRD. BUT LITTLE ELSE SHOULD HAPPEN.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 131519 sd
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE THINGS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
STABLE NOW, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH GPS DERIVED
SOUNDING PW OF AOA 2" THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CONTINUED ON-
SHORE FLOW/SEABREEZE ENHANCED PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND A
COOL FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NC TX. LATEST RUC HAS THE COOL FRONT ALL
THE WAY TO CLL BY LATE THIS AFTN AND GIVEN 12Z UA DATA (INDICATING
NOT ALL THAT BAD HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE FRONT), AM NOT WILLING TO
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH SELY FLOW ALREADY RETURNING TO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA (AND PC SKIES THERE ALREADY)...WILL BREAK THESE
ZONES OUT AND PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE. OTRWS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
GOING PACKAGE. 41/45
.KHGX...NONE.
PRELIMS...
CLL EE 087/071 090/068 087 633
IAH TT 087/072 089/069 087 534
GLS TT 087/079 089/075 087 544
FXUS64 KSJT 131441 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
AFTER VIEWING LATEST KSJT 88D TRENDS AND THE 12Z RUC...LOOKS LIKE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY HOLD OFF OUT WEST. CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CWA HAS DECREASED AND WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHES THE CONCHO
VALLEY...PARTLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING EAST AHEAD OF IT...AND
PARTLY DUE TO THE BEST FOCUS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
STAYING OUT WEST. RUC MODEL NAILS THIS FEATURE. SOME WEAK CONVECTION
HAS FIRED OVER STERLING COUNTY...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. GOES
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPE OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...JUST HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PUT A HARD TO FIND WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH OF KSPS TO NORTH
OF KSJT TO THE BIG BEND...AND AGREE WITH MORNING SHIFT THAT PRECIP
BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT AS LIKELY AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL...EITHER OVER THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...OR EVEN OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY COULD QUICKLY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...SO WILL KEEP A SHARP EYE
OUT FOR CONVECTION.
GOING FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY MIGHT BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...AND WOULD LIKE TO TWEAK BACK POPS
A CATEGORY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK FINE.
20
FXUS74 KFWD 131441 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
DSCN: SUB-TROPICAL LOW OVR DELMARVA BCMG RATHER DIFFUSE...BUT
SOMEWHERE BTWN CAMBRIDGE MD...SBY...AND GED AT 00Z. LOW WAS TRACKING
NNWD UP THE BAY...BUT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A SWING NNEWD IN RESPONSE
TO APPCHG SYSTEM. RUC/MESOETA IN GENL AGRMNT WITH THIS MOTION AS
REFLECTED IN 500H PROGS. HVST SHWR ACTIVITY STILL IN SRN SECTOR.
HVYR SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING NERN NC CST ATTM...SHUD BE ABLE TO LEAVE
OUT MNTN OF POPS EVERYWHERE XCPT PORTIONS OF DLMRVA...AS SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NE. FOG IS THE REMAINING QUESTION OF THE NGT...SKIES
BCMG P CLDY MOST PLACES BHND EXITING LOW...AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE MOST RAINFALL WL GET SOME PATCHY FOG. RIC/TRI CITIES AREA AND
EWD TO DLMRVA MOST FAVORABLE...ALTHO NERN NC HAD A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS OF HVYR RAIN. RDR INDICATING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OF STRM TOTAL
PCPN...IN A FEW LOCNS FM CAROLINE CNTY TO TAPPAHANNOCK...TO
CRISFIELD MD.
MON FCST STILL LUKS ON TRACK FOR P SUNNY SKIES AND INCRG LLVL FLOW
FM THE SSW AS MID AND UPR LVL FLOW BCMS WLY. ENUF SUN TO POP PLENTY
OF CU AND SLGT CHC OF AFTN SHRA/TSTM...SPCLY WRN AREAS.
CSTL WTRS...SCA RMN UP FOR NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO HIGH SEAS.
.AKQ...SCA FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
13
FXUS61 KAKQ 131922 va
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
235 AM MDT MON JUN 14 1999
...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE SE CO PLAINS
TUESDAY...
TODAY/TONIGHT: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION... ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS WHICH RECEIVED A REINFORCING LOW
LEVEL SURGE OF COOL AIR YESTERDAY. THE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY (11 U
-3.9 U) REVEALED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE REGION AS OF 0800
UTC. THUS...THE AIRMASS IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP AT LEAST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WAS MEANDERING INTO WY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE 0600 UTC
RUC PROJECTING THIS FEATURE INTO SE WY BY 1800 UTC. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAK
REGION WEST INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND LEADVILLE
AREAS...WHICH COULD EVEN GET GOING BY LATE MORNING WITH A LITTLE
HELP FROM THE SHORT WAVE. THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 WILL HAVE TOO
MUCH OF A CAP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE
SHORT WAVE CLIPS BY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND PEAK SURFACE HEATING
TIME. MODEL PROJECTIONS AND MODIFICATION OF CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE MIDDLE ARKANSAS VALLEY
...WITH ABOUT 0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THUS... THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE RESPECTABLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT SEVERE APART FROM LOCALIZED
SEVERE HAIL. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. CONVECTION SHOULD
END OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL LIKELY LINGER WHEREVER IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE SE
PLAINS.
TUESDAY: ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL MOIST AIR WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO ERN CO TUESDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT NW FLOW ALOFT
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SUPERCELLS ON THE SE PLAINS. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. IN ANY EVENT...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE
CO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THE COOL
SURGE ON THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY: THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY COOL...MOIST
AIRMASS...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WLY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER E. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING FOR THE ERN PLAINS AS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES. HOWEVER...
FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL TEND TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE SAN JUANS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WETTER.
.PUB...NONE.
HAYNES
FXUS65 KBOU 132048 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TEMPS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER.
CURRENT MID/UPR LVL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RDG OVER WRN CANADA
AND DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. WV/IR
LOOP INDICATED SHRTWV OVER WI MOVING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROF.
ASSOCIATED 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING LINGERING
BATCH OF -RA OVER FAR SE UPR MI AND NRN LAKE MI AT 0730Z. SFC OBS AT
MNM...ESC...ISQ AND ERY WERE NOT INDICATING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE
PCPN WITH GENERALLY ONLY MID CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SPRINKLES BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN AFT 09Z. HIGH CLOUDS
OVER CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO EXIT BY 12Z AS SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.
COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL UPR MI AT 07Z WL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AREA
TODAY WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE AT CMX AND MQT. H85
TEMPS FCST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY 18Z PER 00Z ETA AND
06Z RUC IN LINE WITH 00Z CWPL H85 TEMP AROUND -3C. THIS SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR BKN-OVC STCU DEVELOPMENT NORTH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
STILL FROM 3-5C DESPITE DRY ADVECTION. WITH STRONG CAA TEMPS
GENERALLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE NORTH. LATER ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR OVER SOUTH WILL ALLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND.
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG QVECTOR DIV FROM CAA AND
DNVA EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT INLAND. ALTHOUGH FWC/FAN FCST OF
33/29 SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT...SEVERAL FACTORS UNFAVORABLE
FOR TEMPS THAT COLD. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH NW BNDRY LYR WINDS
IN 10-20 KNOT RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING.
WITH LAKE WATER TEMPS CLOSE TO SOUTH END OF LAKE IN THE 6-10C
RANGE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS WITH DLT/T TO AROUND
-12C. AREAS JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE SHOULD ALSO SEE MORE MODIFIED AIR
AND STRONGER WINDS. SO...GREATEST FROST THREAT...WOULD BE INLAND
NEAR WI BORDER. WINDS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN NRN UPR
MI...SHOULD ALSO HELP MITIGATE TEMP DROP OVER SOUTH.
MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EFFECTS OF SHRTWV EMERGING FROM
NRN PLAINS REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF UPR MI ON TUESDAY. WITH SFC RDG OVER
AREA GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WITH SOME SUNSHINE EARLY.
AGAIN...EXPECT MIDDAY SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH LINGERING COLD H85 TEMPS
AROUND 0C.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 140815 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1055 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS ARE ENDING SHRA AND CLOUD COVER.
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL FA DURING THE EVENING ALONG
BOUNDARIES. FIRST SHRA DEVELOPED ALONG LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS BOUNDARY THEN INTERACTED WITH COLD FRONT THAT HAD
INTERSECTED LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD
FRONT ATTM LIKELY RUNNING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MUNISING TO EAST OF
KIMT TO SW WI AS WINDS SHIFT NOTICEABLY TO THE NW TO THE WEST OF
THAT LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES ATTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE INTO WI FROM IA. THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS ONTARIO AIDING
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN NE WI/FAR S FA THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...IR IMAGES SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF
WI AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
LAST VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD UPSTREAM
IN NE MN/SW ONTARIO IN A REGION OF STRONG 850MB CAA. MARINE OBS ON W
LK SUPERIOR HAVE SHIFTED FROM SW TO NW IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND THIS LIKELY SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE STRONGER CAA.
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WI AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC...WILL NEED TO
CARRY SHRA FOR FAR S/SE COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FRONT
EXITING FA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENHANCING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS
YET. OTHERWISE...STRONG CAA GETS UNDERWAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
6-8C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. 0C LINE REACHES NW LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z.
SCT-BKN STATOCU FIELD ACCOMPANYING CAA WILL OVERSPREAD FA DURING THE
NIGHT...AND CURRENT FA COVERS THIS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD ALREADY OVER FA...WILL JUST GO WITH SIMPLE MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME UNDER CAA REGIME.
RUC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY 12Z RANGE FROM 15 KNTS S TO 25 KNTS N.
THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z FWC GUIDANCE AND 02Z LAMP GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FCST ALSO HANDLES THIS WELL.
CURRENT FCST LOWS ARE ON TARGET BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND
LATEST GUIDANCE. A MUCH COOLER DAY ON THE WAY MON WITH TEMPS 15 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KAPX 140203 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT 88D INDICATES CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NW PORTION OF
FA IN AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT SFC RUC DATA INDICATES WRN
TWO-THIRDS OF FA UNSTABLE...WITH HIGHEST CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
ACROSS EXTREME EASTRN IN. THIS INSTABILITY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
YET POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SVR ACROSS FA.
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NGM COMING MORE
AROUND WITH THE ETA. AFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NW OF FA...WILL BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...AS ENTRANCE
REGION OF 25H JET REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN GRT LKS.
85H CONVERGENCE SETS UP ACROSS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH APPROACH OF 85H
FRONT. THIS ZONE OF LLVL FORCING MOVES INTO OUR FA FOR MONDAY. AT
THE SFC...EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ILN FA ON MONDAY. ETA HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTANT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. DRIER
NW FLOW SHOULD MOVE INTO FA FROM THE NW ON MONDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS W...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. WILL GO WIDELY SCT ACROSS SE SECTION.
FOR MONDAY...FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH LIKELY/CATAGORICAL POPS ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLD COVER IS...WILL DIRECTLY
AFFECT TEMPS. WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. WILL CONSIDER THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED.
MISILN OUT SHORTLY.
.ILN...NONE.
DISTEFANO
FXUS71 KRLX 131440 oh
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EST MON JUN 14 1999
FCST FOCUS SHIFTS THIS CYCLE FROM ENDING OF PCPN THIS MORNING AND
CLRG TODAY TO TEMPS IN ALL 3 FCST PDS. KIND RADAR STILL SHOWING SCT
SHRA OVR E INDIANA AT 07Z WHILE KLOT RADAR SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF
SHRA OVR N IL...WHICH HAVE BEEN DSIPTG. SATL DEPICTS CLRG LN NR A
KMSN-KUIN LINE AT 07Z. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS CDFNT NR A
KLAN-KGUS-KEVV LINE.
ETA MODEL HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST TO CLR PCPN/CLOUDS THIS RUN AND
NOW APPEARS TOO FAST BASED ON SATL/RADAR. NGM/AVN A BIT SLOWER ON
MORE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS. 00Z NGM AGREES WELL WITH 03Z
RUC WITH VORT MAX OVR IA WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH SATL WATER VAPOR
LOOP. ALSO...ETA APPEARS TO OVERDO VORT MAX/MOISTURE MOVG OUT OF NRN
PLNS STATES AT 48 HRS. THUS...PREFER THE NGM THIS RUN WITH AVN A
CLOSE 2ND.
RADAR TIMING HAS SHRA OVR NRN IL MOVG ACROSS NRN IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORT SATL LOOP TIMING OF CLRG
LINE REACHING NW INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE NOON. MUCH DRIER MOVG IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WL FCST CHC/SCT SHRA
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DCRSG CLOUDINESS. DRY AIR MASS WL
GIVE CLR SKIES TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVG
IN DURG THE DAY AND SOME SCT CU. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE-850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE AROUND 15C MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WITH PREFERENCE FOR THE NGM/AVN MODELS...WL ALSO TEND TWD A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE NGM/AVN MOS FOR TEMPS. THIS SUPPORTED BY NGM FCST
SOUNDINGS. ETA SFC TEMPS APPEAR TOO COOL GIVEN STRONG JUNE SUN. HAVE
TENDED TO WARM SIDE OF THE SPLIT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO RMN
AROUND 10 KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
.IND...NONE.
ZIMMERMAN
FXUS63 KIWX 140320 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 AM MON JUN 14 1999
LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ASSOCD WITH FNTL BNDRY APPROACHG BUF AND
REMIANS FAIRLY INTACT EXTENDING BACK TO CLE. EXPECT PCPN TO REACH
WRN CWA ARND 18Z...INTO CNTRL CWA ARND 20Z...AND FAR ERN CA TOWARDS
00Z. WITH ECHOS ON KBUF RADAR FAIRLY CONTINUOUS WILL BUMP UP POPS
TO CAT OVER ENTIRE CWA. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHD OF FNT WHICH IS
CUTTING DOWN ON HTG AND LESSENING SVR WX THREAT. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TDY ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON AMNT OF LOW CLDS AND FCST SFC
TEMPS FM LATEST RUC. MODIFYING RUC SOUNDING DOES SHOW LI OF -5 AND
CAPE OF 2000 J/KG GIVEN TEMP/DWPT OF 81/66 WHICH IS WORSE CASE
SCENARIO SO TSTMS STILL A GOOD BET. MAIN SVR WX THREAT WOULD BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE AS HELICITY VALS QUITE LOW
(ARND 150) HWVR ETA AND MESO-ETA SHWS BEST HELICITY VALS (200-230)
WILL BE OVR FAR ERN CWA TOWARDS 00Z-03Z SO BASED ON TIMING OF FNT
AND BEST HELICITY VALS BEST SVR WX THREAT OVR ERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTN. IF LOW CLDS MAGICALLY CLR OUT (DOUBTFUL) THE SVR WX TREAT
WILL BE INCRSD BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL THREAT. WRKZNS
OUT. ZFP OUT SHRTLY.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS71 KOKX 141401 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRNT ACROSS WEST SLOPES OF
APPALCAHIANS SLOWLY MOVG E. MORNING SNDINGS INDICATE PWS CONTINUING
TO RISE ACROSS FA. THERE4...WILL SEE CU POP UP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...NVA ALOFT PER LATEST RUC MODEL WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION. WILL WORD PTLY OR MSTLY SUNNY WHERE APPROPRIATE WITH NO
POPS.
TEMPS...CURRNT FCST TEMPS LUK AOK...MAY SEE SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS
INLAND TODAY AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SW.
CWF...CURRNT FCST ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. WILL
GROUP ALL ZNS INTO 1.
.ILM...NONE.
DCH
FXUS72 KRAH 140714 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1000 AM MDT MON JUN 14 1999
CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING INCLUDE FINE TUNING THE WIND
DIRECTION AND LOWER HIGHS IN THE NW...AND UPPING THE HIGHS IN THE SE.
OTHERWISE CURRENT THINKING IS ON TRACK. 15Z SURFACE MAP IS SHOWING
THE CWA IN TRANSITION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A RIDGE IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
OVER NEVADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MT WHICH THE RUC AND ETA PICK UP ON IN THE 12Z FORECAST
DATA THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH
SHOULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO START FORMING. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MT...WITH MID CLOUDS IN NW SD. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS WE HAVE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER NE SD AND THERE IS ALSO GOOD 850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE SW CORNER. LIMITING FACTORS
WILL BE THE MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND UP INTO EASTERN MT. WE NEED TO
INCREASE DEWPOINTS STILL IN ORDER TO GET THE CAPE OF 1000 J/KG.
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AND WITH ALL THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HOLDING
BACK ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHER TEMPS I WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ISOLATED ONES WILL ALWAYS NIP YOU IN
THE BUD LATER.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL AND WET. IS THIS REALLY JUNE? BY 18Z
TUESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN MT WILL BE IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND IS INTENSIFIED AS IT ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF.
ANOTHER JET STREAK STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO NE WY BY 00Z WED.
.UNR...NONE.
FRANSEN
FXUS63 KABR 141526 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS... WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS... EXTENDED ACROSS
MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL AND MS. 12Z BNA... 09Z RUC AND 03Z MESO-
ETA SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE CAPES ABOUT 2000 J/KG TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONT FROM SDF-MEM.
THIS ALL SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST
WITH WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 13K FEET... AND LITTLE SHEAR WITH WSW
FLOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY UP.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN... WILL LOWER TEMPS IN A FEW OF THE ZONES
BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY.
RBP
FXUS74 KMEG 140743 tn
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
956 AM CDT MON JUN 14 1999
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS H85 FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
SOUTH OF METROPLEX. MORNING RUC AND VAPOR CHANNEL DO SHOW SOME PVA
TO SWING ACROSS N TEXAS TODAY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF H85 FRONT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. WILL NEED TO LOWER
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOK TOO WEAK
FOR 15 TO 25 MPH (KFWD VAD ONLY HAS 15KTS IN SECOND GATE). 10 TO 20
MPH LOOKS CLOSER WITH LIGHTER WINDS SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME. (80)
FTW...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 141450 tx
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT MON JUN 14 1999
SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPAWNED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING. THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE STAYED CLEAR
HAVE BEEN SOUTHEAST UTAH EASTWARD TO DURANGO. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT REGIONS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER 20Z LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS.
18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A MINOR DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT REGION THIS EVENING. MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND LITTLE RAIN VARIETY.. BUT THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS NEAR THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY.
DEFORMATION AXIS AT 700 MB GETS ESTABLISHED ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT. EXPECT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES RISING. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECT THIS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE MID 40S.. NOT EXACTLY HUMID BUT
HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER TO LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR WILL AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY.. MOISTURE DECREASES AS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.. BUT MODELS STILL
INDICATE A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD PROVIDING SOME UPWARDS MOTION.
WILL INDICATE A DECREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALL AREAS.
EXTENDED.. MRF SHIFTS STRONG RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. APPEARS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.. BUT SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FRISBIE
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KBOU 142033 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
240 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
ALL MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVG FNT S OF AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RUC PUSHES
THE FNT TO DCA BY 03Z WHILE ETA EVEN APPEARS FASTER. ONCE FNT PASSES
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLR AND PRECIP IS OVER. DEVELOPING MORE SHWRS
AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FNT NOW ESPECIALLY OVR THE NW PART FA.
HOWEVER NONE ARE DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY INDICATING THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED LIFTING THE ATMOS IS WORKING ON. WILL GO CHC
POPS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS ENDING BY MIDN W AND ALL NIGHT SE.
FNT STALLS S OF FA. THE NGM AND AVN ARE FARTHER S WITH THE FNT THEN
THE ETA BUT EVEN ON THE ETA POSITION NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY
SHOWERS TO GET BACK INTO THE SE PART FA ON TUE. WL JUST GO WITH A
LINGERING MRNG SHWR SE THEN MSTLY CLDY. FARTHER N WL BE PARTLY SUNNY
WITH NW MSTLY SUNNY.
SEVERAL WVS PASS ALONG FNT TO S WITH STRONGEST COMING FOR THU. WL
ALLOW A FEW MORE CLDS N ON WED AS FLOW BACKS SOME BUT STILL NO
PRECIP.
ON TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS WHICH ARE WARMER THEN FAN
NUMBERS.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 141334 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
945 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINT GET CAPES ARND 2K WITH -4 LI
AND RUC MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS.
SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS AND WITH W WIND AND 85H TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS SHD HEAT NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
RUC MODEL ALSO PICKS UP ON THIS INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN. RUC SHOWS
A WEAK SW COMING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FNT AND MOVES THIS ACRS THE FA
DURG THE AFTN GENERATING BEST LIFT ACRS THE N PART FA. ALSO LOOKED
AT BEST INSTABILITY THERE AS WELL. RAMS MODEL PICKS OUT AN AREA OF
CONG ACRS THE N AS WELL THIS AFTN. ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
TSTMS DEVELOPING DURG THE LATE AFTN ACRS THE N PART FA WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN FNT TO THE W. BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF TSTMS WL PUSH INTO THE FA
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN FNT.
LOOKING AT WIND PROFILES AND NOT GREAT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THIS
AFTN DO NOT SEE ANY SEVERE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH PRECIP WATERS
OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE SHD BE HEAVY RAINERS.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 140642 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
ATMOS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. 12Z UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW MOISTURE
MINIMUM ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF
SFC FNT AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON SAT PIX. 09Z RUC AND 03Z
ETA BOTH CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST OF BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST TODAY. CURRENT FCST OF HIER POPS IN THE WEST AND NO POP IN NC
PIEDMONT AND WRN SC COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS IN LINE BUT WILL
CHECK LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS72 KCAE 141254 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 14 1999
SCT SHRA/TSRA ONGOING S WHERE SHRTWV ENERGY/LOW LEVEL MSTR
CONVERGENCE CONCENTRATED. 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH PW'S S AND
WEAK FLOW S SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER LIFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER OMEGA DIMINISHES AS DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 3H
JETLET LESSENS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL S
WITH REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN STILL REPORTED BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES.
DESPITE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL GO WITH FFA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENSION.
GPM
FXUS64 KAMA 141616 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
105 PM MDT MON JUN 14 1999
S/W MOVG SE NR A KBIL TO KBPI LINE AT 18Z. CLD CANOPY OVR NE HALF OF
STATE RETREATING WITH CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON CLD/CLR BOUNDARY.
-SHRA AND VIRGA MOISTENED MID LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE EARLIER TDA. AS
THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS E INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVE...TS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. BEST INSTABILITY OVR E ZNS BUT
TIMING CRITICAL TO GET MAX HTG GOING BEFOREHAND. 15Z RUC FCST
SOUNDING HAS -6 LI/S AND NEARLY 1600 J/KG CAPES OVR CPR AT 00Z WITH
LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. VORT MAX PROGGED BY ETA TO
DIVE INTO NE WY AT 00Z AND THEN OUT INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AT 15/06Z.
THUS EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR E CEN WY BTWN 00Z AND 03Z WITH
INSTABILITY/PVA/AND DYNAMIC LIFTING.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND W ACRS E OF DIVIDE TGT BEHIND S/W
WITH A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR S/W ON ITS HEELS IN NW FLOW. LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING LOW CLDS AND FOG UP INTO CPR LATE TGT
ESPECIALLY IF PREDICTED PCPN OCCURS THIS EVE. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST
UP TO 700 MB BEHIND FRONT THRU TUE FOR LOTS OF CLDS AND COOLER TEMPS
IN CEN AND E. WAA ABV 5H AND COOL POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SETTLING IN
BELOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS STABLE TUE OVR CEN AND E. SOME INSTABILITY
OVR FAR WEST TUE AFTN WITH LI/S -2 AND CAPES 400 TO 500 J/KG SO WILL
MTN ISOLD THERE.
LOW CLDS AND FOG TO BE A CONCERN ARND CPR AGAIN TUE NGT. AVN RUN
SHOWS RDG AXIS SHIFTING E TO W BRDR ON WED WITH FRONT ALONG EAST
SLOPES RETREATING AND AIRMASS DRYING FROM W. HIGHER RH VALUES REMAIN
FROM SE WY UP THRU CPR FOR ISOLD LATE DAY STORMS. EXTENDED ON TRACK
WITH MRF SHOWING S/W MOVG ACRS N THU FOR SCT POPS NORTH ZNS THEN
CLOSED HIGH NR FOUR CRNRS BUILDS NWD INTO FA FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND
ISOLD MTN STORMS FRI AND SAT.
AEM
.RIW...NONE
FXUS65 KCYS 140933 COR wy