WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED BY NOON.
AIR MASS DRY PER MORNING SOUNDING AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE RAIN FROM
THESE STORMS EXPECTED.. MAINLY GUSTY WIND VARIETY. MINOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. LIFTED INDICES REMAIN BELOW
ZERO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.. BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
DISTURBANCES TO ENHANCE LIFT. WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEARING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS CAUGHT
UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND BROAD EASTERN CANADA TROUGH.
WHILE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYS OVER MONTANA AND
WYOMING.. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.. SO
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED.. AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH MRF
SHOWING STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. MRF
AS BEEN LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST WEEK.. BUT RIDGE
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERHAPS INCREASING AT 700 MB BY WEDNESDAY.. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN UTAH. NO CHANGES TO
WESTERN COLORADO WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING.
FRISBIE
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KPUB 122000 co
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
200 PM MDT SATURDAY JUNE 12 1999
OVERALL APRS PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GOOD CHC OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TODAY TSTMS FIRING
QUICKLY AS MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT FM SHT WAVE
NOW OVR WRN CO PER RUC AND WTR VPR IMAGERY MOVING EAST...WHILE
FARTHER E ERN CO STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF EXITING WAVE NOW IN WRN
KS. MEANWHILE FRONT MOVING S INTO WY AS HI PRES BUILDS BHND GUD
SHORT WV MOVING ACRS ERN MT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOC UPR LVL FORCING
WITH WAVE AND UPR LVL JET STREAK BRINGS A GOOD DEAL OF FORCING INTO
WRN NEB LATER TONIGHT SO WUD XPCT THERE SHD BE AREA OF TSTMS
THERE...THIS SHD HELP PUSH SURGE INTO NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MIGHT KEEP SHWRS/TSTMS GOING ALL NIGHT OVER PTNS OF THE ERN
PLAINS...AS WELL AS LEADING TO LOTS OF LOW CLDNS SUNDAY MORNING. SO
XPCT SUNDAY TO HAVE COPIOUS LO LVL MSTR WITH ELY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AND
PERHAPS MORE UPR LVL FLOW FM THE NW AS THE JET STREAK WILL BE CLOSER
TO FCST AREA...THO STILL FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT AMNT OF FLOW OVER
AREA IS STILL TRICKY. WILL NEED TO UP POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN
PASSAGE OF FRONT WITH INCRSD UPSLP.
FOR MONDAY...THOUGHT YSTDY THAT IT MIGHT BE THE DRIER DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER UPSLOPE FM THE N FOR TUE AND BYND. TODAY
THO LUKS LIKE THERE SHD CONT TO BE PLENTY OF LO LVL MSTR ARND AND
WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS PROB NO SHORTAGE OF AFTN TSTMS AGAIN...WILL GO
ORDER OF 40 PCNT CHC OR SO. LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGRMNT
AND HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON STRENGTH OF HI ENTERING OUR AREA...BUT
STILL PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH ANOTHER SURGE XPCTD LATE
MONDAY OR ERLY TUE...LEADING TO RENEWED UPSLOPE CONDS. GRADUALLY
FLOW WILL COME ARND WITH TIME TO MORE SELY WITH SOME TEMP
RECOVERY...WILL BROAD BRUSH IN STATE AND PUT ANY SUCH DETAILS IN
ZONE EXTENDED PERIOD. LIKELY AN ACTIVE 5 DAYS AHEAD. SZOKE
.DEN...NONE.
FXUS65 KBOU 120901 co
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF FA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RUC MODEL INDICATES BEST SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR OF FA...AROUND
LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AVN MODEL
PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON FA.
SUN...ETA SHOWS E-W AXIS OF DRYING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL FL IN RESPONCE
TO SHARPENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF MID ATLC COAST CUTOFF.
WHILE PARTIAL DRYING EXPECTED FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY IT WIL ONLY
SLOW DEVELOPENT OF CONVECTION AND ACTVTY WILL FIRE WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISION AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ESPECIALLY N OF THE CAPE.
SUN NT AND MON...WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN LONG WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE
UPPER MID W AND GREAT LKS. BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE
A BIT MORE S AND ALLOW FLOW TO VEER. ONLY THE ETA INDICATES DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN FM THE S OVER THE TOP OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ALL
MDLS INDICATE PCP WATER VALUES MORE THEN ENOUGH FOR MORE TS ACTVTY.
MAY TEND TO HAVE HIER POPS IN THE S.
TUE AND WED...AS SHRT WV MOVES WELL N OF AREA FLOW CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SW AND WILL FOCUS ACTVTY CLOSER TO THE E COAST. FIRST N OF
THE CAPE ON TUE AND ALL AREAS BY MID WEEK.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
DAB BB 072/087 071/087 070 05343
MCO TT 070/088 072/089 070 05443
MLB BB 073/086 073/088 072 05343
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KTAE 121833 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH ROTATION AROUND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE HANGING
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SE
AL. BACK DOOR FRONT MADE SOME SWWD PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM SAVANNAH NW ACROSS CENTRAL GA SO OUR
AIRMASS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
JUICED AND UNSTABLE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS BIG BEND ZONES THIS MORNING AND TEMPS
RUNNING BEHIND GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH IN
SPOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND AND QUICKLY BOOSTING US UNDER STRONG
JUNE SUN UP TO GUIDANCE MAXT/S WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL LATELY.
BOTH FWC/FAN SHOW 88 FOR TLH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
INTRODUCE A RANGE TO AFTERNOON MAXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND OTHER AREAS THAT BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER
THAN TLH...85 TO 90 WILL BE THE CALL. WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS
WILL WORD SKY CONDITION AS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DELAY LIKELY POPS TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
MAW
FXUS62 KJAX 121443 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED
OVER EXTREME NE FL AND SE GA HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO
CHANGE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MAJORITY OF CWA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ZONES APPEAR FINE AND NO
UPDATES PLANNED.
RUC MODEL SHOWS HIGH MEAN RH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG
A NW-SE AXIS TODAY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SW. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATES PW NEAR 1.8 BUT WET BULB ZERO IS ABV 12 KFT. THEREFORE...
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY BUT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TS APPEARS
RATHER LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER THE NE CORNER OF CWF AREA.
LATEST BUOY REPORT FROM 41008 IS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. SUGGEST
RAISING WINDS AND SEAS IN CWF.
ARS
FXUS62 KMLB 121423 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON LAMP ANALYSIS THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF SC AND WESTERN NC. DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE
AROUND UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF NC COAST. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO CNTRL/S GA FRI...HAS
DRIFTED WNW INTO AL. RUC MODEL SHOWS MAX VORTICITY CENTER ALIGNED
ALONG TLH...MGM...MEI LINE...WITH ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA EARLY IN W/SW GA HAVE ALL DISSIPATED WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EVIDENT ON FFC/JGX WSR-88D.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY FOR GA WITH VERY LITTLE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. MUCH OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LOW OFF NC COAST AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND FILLS NEXT
48 HOURS. THE ONLY AREA APPEARING TO HAVE ANY THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL BE THE EXTREME SW CORNER...NEAREST THE SYSTEM
IN AL. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
N/CNTRL/E SECTIONS OF GA SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...APPEARS THAT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE SE U.S. AS FRONT
STALLS NEAR GA/TN BORDER AND DISTURBANCES MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW ON
BACK SIDE OF DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH.
FOR UPDATE...WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF EVENING POPS FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET WITH
RELATIVELY COOL/DIR AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR.
.ATL...NONE.
RAB
FXUS72 KFFC 121952 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
...GLOBALLY...
PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW UNDERWAY AS THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY BEING
TRANSFERRED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM ALLOWING IT TO BECOME DOMINANT.
NET RESULT IS THE CURRENT 4 WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WILL
BECOME AN UNSTABLE 5 WAVE PATTERN. MOSAIC OF GOES 8/10...GMS-5...AND
METOSAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ALASKA AREA IS REORGANIZING AS THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE
TROF RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. PER SATELLITE TRENDS STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH ENERGY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AS HEIGHTS BUILD JUST WEST OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROF TO RETROGRESS ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
NEAR 47.5N/153W. DOWNSTREAM THIS REORGANIZES THE REX BLOCK INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCK ON THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALLOWING THE POLAR
VORTEX WEST OF GREENLAND TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND CARVE
OUT A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SIBERIA DIVES
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF ALLOWING ENERGY TO BE TRANSFERRED INTO
THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
...LOCALLY...
PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. A MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHICH IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
AS A TROF FROM NEAR KIRK TO KSTL. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOTED ON THE
DVN 88D. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KCDJ WHILE
THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG A KEFT... KMUT... KCDJ LINE.
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE 70 DEW POINT AIR EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DIURNAL CU/SC BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...RAIN CHANCES...CLOUDS/TEMPS...AND
WHETHER TO KEEP ANY HEADLINES.
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK AND WERE DOING A FAIRLY
GOOD JOB OF VERIFYING AT 18Z. THE ETA CATCHES THE LOW NEAR KCDJ AT
18Z DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. 15Z RUC INITIALIZED THE LOW BUT
LOST IT BY 18Z BUT IS CATCHING THE MAJOR FEATURES FAIRLY WELL. ALL
MODELS INDICATE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY MOVE THE
FRONT 10-20 MILES DURING THE NIGHT WHILE IT WAITS FOR THE KANSAS
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE UP ALONG IT. ADDITIONALLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE STILL NIL BUT STRONGER ONES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
DAKOTAS. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO LOW (AOA 1 INCH) WILL KEEP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A DBQ TO JUST EAST OF OTM LINE. FAIRLY HIGH PWS
COMBINED WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THICKNESS...SURFACE FRONT...
AND EVENTUAL RRQ OF JET ALL POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
PRESSURE RISES FINALLY FORCE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. SO WILL GO WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES.
...EXTENDED...
PATTERN CHANGE ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS TAKE
PLACE ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE RAW WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 60S.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.
.DVN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IAZ054-064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-025-026-034-035
NC
FXUS63 KDMX 121925 ia
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS ARCS
CWA TAPERING OFF AFTR SUNSET WILL LOSS OF LOW LVL SUPPORT. SFC RUC
INDCG SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE. SHWRS
AND TSTM ACTVTY TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE AS C-BRZ/ LAND-BRZ SWITCHES
AND LOW LVL DYNAMIC'S SWITCHES OVR CSTL WTRS. MSTLY CLR SKIES
XPCD OVRNGHT W/ LIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR INLD AREAS.
SFC PRES GRAD RMNS WEAK W/ SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GULF. UPR LVL
WEAKNESS XPCD TO CONT OVR SE TX AND SW LA... AS RDGG FM REX BLOCK
OFF THE E CST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE GULF CSTL STATES EAST OF THE
AREA. AVN AND NGM NOW TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT... BUT WITH
UPR LVL SUPPORT AND LTL CHANGE XPCD IN THE TROPICAL MSTR WILL LEAN
TOWARDS PRESISTANCE.
NGM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOUT RIGHT W/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT.
LCH TT 073/087 073/087 4635
LFT TT 073/087 072/087 4535
AEX TT 069/088 069/088 4533
BPT TT 073/087 073/087 3545
K. KUYPER
FXUS64 KLCH 121919 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
CURRENT APX 88D SHOWING WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR RADIATION. RADAR NOW MAINLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LAKE HURON SHORELINE FROM ALPENA TO ROGERS CITY. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION
WILL BE LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
21Z RUC SHOWING 850 MB DEW PTS QUICKLY DECREASING FROM AROUND 12C THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8C OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RUC KEEPING 12C DEW PT AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST... AS WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.
RUC SHOWING QVECTOR FORCING... 850/700 ...CONTINUING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
LINGERING HIGH 850 DEW PT AIR... THEREFORE KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS
...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AIR DRYING OVER WESTERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER
MICHIGAN... THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING STABILITY... SO WILL
DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 122003 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
UPDATE CONCERNS...SHRA/TSRA IN E CWA AND CLEARING TREND WEST.
AT 15Z...SFC COLD FRNT EXTDNG FM E LK SUPERIOR-ISQ-MKE WITH SFC DEWPTS
65-69 E OF FRONT...AND DRIER DWPTS NEAR 55 ADVECTING INTO W/CNTRL
CWA IN W FLOW. IR/LTG DATA INDICATING COOLING TOPS AND TSRA OVR WI
DOOR PENISULA MVG NE 25 KTS. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD
WITH WK SHORTWAVE RESLVD BY 12Z RUC THAT IS IMBEDDED IN SW UPR FLOW.
CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT WITH FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMGRY.
SW FEATURE IS FCST BY 12Z RUC TO CONTINUE NE ALNG COLD FRONT BDRY
INTO E CWA BWTN 15-21Z. RUCS 310K THETA SFC DEPICTS WEAK LOBE OF
ASCENT TO TRAVERSE E CWA WITH FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
DESCENT BY 00Z. CONVERGENT LK BREEZES SHOULD AID IN
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH MINIMAL SOLAR HEATING...CAPES
500-1000J/KG...AND SHOWALTER INDEX 1-2C...WILL RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING...WITHOUT RISK OF SVR.
TO WEST INCREASING DECENT EVIDENT ON 12Z RUCS 310K THETA SFC...WITH
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALREADY WRKNG INTO GOGEBIC
COUNTY...THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KEEWENAW PENINSULA REACHING
CNTRL CWA LATE. UPSTREAM INL SOUNDING QUITE DRY...SO BELIEVE SKIES
WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL BDRY LAYER
MOISTURE MIXES OUT. MAX TMPS LK REASONABLE.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KAPX 121503 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
835 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN UNDER THERMAL INVERSION
TNT. SFC LOW ABOUT 65 MILES DUE E OF CAPE HAT SLOWLY DRIFTING W. VIS
AND IR SAT IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING ON NRN SIDE OF LOW IN
VCTY OF H5 VORT. MESOETA...RUC AND AVN IN CLOSE AGRMT AT 00Z HWVR
PREFER THE MESOETA SOLN THIS EVENING. RUC AND AVN MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANGING ONTO THE H5 VORT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS W. THE
RUC KEEPS THE VORT INTACT LONGER. HWVR DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION OFFSHORE MODELS KEEP LIFT AND DEEP RH JUST OFFSHORE ON THE
N AND NE SIDE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. BELIEVE THIS TO BE A GOOD
SOLN...MEANING OUTER BANKS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SCT SHRA/TSTMS
TNT. MHX SNDG STILL A BIT DRY AT 00Z WITH PWAT AT 1.32 AND A
K INDEX OF 20. WITH THIS SAID MAINLAND AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE
JUST WDLY SCT SHRA TNT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE THE BIG
RAIN SOAKER THAT MUCH OF THE AREA NEEDS AND CURRENT ZONES LOOK ON
TRACK WITH POPS TNT. LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE TMRW AND THEN GET PICKED-
UP/ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW AND QUICKLY LIFT NE. SCT SHRA/TSTMS
WILL BE PSBL SUN MAINLY IN THE AFTN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A LITTLE
AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND.
CSTL: WINDS AT DSLN7 CONT TO BLOW AT 20 KT WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS...
DUCN7 ALSO HAS 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING N OF OCRACOKE
INLET MAINLY FOR SEAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AT DSLN7 OVERNIGHT AS LOW
GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND PRES GRAD RELAXES. LATEST SFC ANAL
ALREADY SHOWS PRES GRAD RELAXING. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA
COND BY MORNING.
.MHX...SCA FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE INLET.
ORROCK/GATES
FXUS72 KRAH 130035 nc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO MOVE ATLC LOW WESTWARD.
LOW IN VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST BY 12Z SUN...MOVING
NORTH 36-48 HOURS AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN LONGWAVE TROUGH. NO TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS PER LATEST TPC DISCUSSION. THEN COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO STATE TUESDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE TREND SHOW LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA BUT HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. CLOUDS ARE ERODING. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. ALSO MSAS SHOWING STRONG
DEWPOINT GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. RAH DEWPOINT CURRENTLY AT
39.
TONIGHT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO COAST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WEST. TIMING OF CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY...OVERCOMING DRY AIR. 15Z RUC
SHOW 70+ RH OVER MOST OF CWA BY 03Z. FWC INDICATING VERY LOW CIGS
(CAT 2) 09Z TONIGHT. WHEN CLOUDS DO ARRIVE EXPECT LOW CIGS IN WHICN
THER COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. AGAIN CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY
A ROLE ON LOWS TONIGHT. THINK CENTRAL/WESTERN SECTIONS WILL STAY
CLEAR FOR AWHILE (TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO). THICKER CLOUDS COMING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE DOWN TIL THEN. CAN EXPECT
SOME LOWS IN THE 50S IN THESE SECTIONS. DENSE CLOUDS MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO GREENSBORO AREA.
SUNDAY...AS LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY SUNDAY...MOST CLOUDINESS WILL BE
IN EAST AND LESSER AS YOU GO WEST. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 75 TO 80 BEST IN THE
AREAS OF MORE CLOUDS. AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S AREAS OF LESS CLOUDS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
EXTENDED...LATEST MRF BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION SHOW FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE
ALOFT. ALSO FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO THIS SPELLS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN. FOR NOW ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GO
WIDELY SCATTERED TUESDAY..CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
.RDU...NONE.
RA
FXUS62 KMHX 121722 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE E
CST WHILE AN AREA OF LO PRES APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS FROM
OFFSHORE. RDG PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THRU THE AFTN AS THE LO MOVES
ASHORE EARLY THIS EVE. VIS PIX SHOW PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS ERN NC. 09Z RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE H8 RH
FIELD & SPREADS 70+ PCNT INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE FA BY MID-AFTN.
BUT HIGHEST MOISTURE STAYS N SO WILL STAY PTSUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE
AFTN LOOKS GOOD W/ LITTLE MOISTURE & PLENTY OF SUN. A RELAXED LO-LVL
FLOW W/ AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING ALG THE CST WILL ENHANCE
PROSPECTS FOR A RESULTANT BOUNDARY & LIFT THIS AFTN. BUT A DRY & MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROHIBIT ACTIVITY. TEMPS IN LOWER TO
MID 80S FINE BASED ON LOCAL SCHEMES.
CWF: WINDS BECMG FAIRLY LGT ALG THE CST WHICH AGREES W/ 03Z MESO-ETA
& RUC PROGS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES PLANNED.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL NGT UNDRWAY ACRS THE CWA ATTM. UPR LO E OF
THE DELMARVA KPNG GUD WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVR US AND WL CONT TO BE THE
TRND FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS. BIG ? IS HOW LOW TO GO FOR TEMPS TNT.
SAT PICS SHO MSTLY CLR SKIES IN PLACE WI JST SOME PATCHY THN CI/AC
MOVG ACRS AREA FM TIME TO TIME. DWPTS RNG FM ABT 53 TO 60 IN SC
PORTION OF CWA TO 60 TO 68 ACRS GA PORTION. WNDS LGT SE ATTM AND MAY
TRY TO START BRINGG SLGHTLY HIER DWPTS INTO SRN CWA OVRNGT. PROBLM IS
THAT WE LIKELY DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND...OUTSIDE OF THE COAST...WL
KEEP LWR DWPTS (AND THEREFORE TEMPS) THAN BOTH RUC AND MESOETA MODELS
INDCT. OVRALL...WITH LGT WNDS AND MSTLY CLR SKIES...GUD RADIATNL
COOLNG SHUD TAKE PLACE.
WL NEED TO TAKE TEMPS DOWN A CAT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MORE ACRS
INLAND SC WHR DRIEST AIR CONTS TO HOLD FIRM.
CWF...CONDITIONS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE WATERS. BUOYS REPORTING
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND 3 TO 4 FT. WILL REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION
WORDING FOR GA WATERS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AS HIGH TIDE
WILL BE OVER IN ALL AREAS BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
WOODWORTH/SLF
FXUS62 KGSP 130114 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
ONLY CLOUDINESS TO SPEAK OF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS BLOWOFF
FROM ERN KY CONVECTION AND MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS ERN NC
ASSOC WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES. CI OVER MTNS SHOULD DIMINISH AS CLOUD
TOPS CONT TO WARM IN LATEST IR IMAGERY OVER KY. STRATOCU MOVING INLAND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WESTWARD BEYOND GSO AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES
ALONG NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER MTNS.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS WORKED WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT AND ERN FOOTHILLS
THIS EVENING YIELDING DEWPOINTS MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. NONE OF THE
MODELS...NOT EVEN THE 21Z RUC...HANDLED THIS INTRUSION VERY WELL. WILL
ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD ABOUT ONE CATEGORY FOR OVERNIGHT MINS AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATION.
.GSP...NONE.
HG
FXUS72 KCAE 130059 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN HALF OF FA AND
CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE. CLEARING WILL LEAD TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT
WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN. WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREA
EXCEPT EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES MIGHT NEED SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL. LATEST RUC SHOWS MOISTURE FINALLY GETTING
SHUNTED WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IN GA COUNTIES HAS MOVED
AWAY OR DISSIPATED AND WILL DROP MENTION OF. DELGADO
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 121402 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
FCST TODAY APPEARS ON TRACK. SCT CU MIDLANDS WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SW THRU CSRA. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TREND OF DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NE...BUT HANGS ON TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CSRA.
WILL GO SUNNY OR MSTLY SUNNY NE AND BECMG PRTLY CLDY CSRA THIS AFT.
.CAE...NONE.
sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS WK TROF FM SE WY TO LOW IN SRN CANADA.
SATELLITE INDC SOME CLOUD DEVLPMNT ALONG THIS LINE... SO COLD FRONT
MAY BE DEVELOPING AS ADVERTISED IN MODELS. WV IMAGES SUGGEST SW/V
OVR NW MT IS MOVING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MODELS INDC. DIGITAL
TIMING EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS SW/V INTO NW SD/NE WY BY 00-01Z...
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN 12Z ETA AND RUC.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
AFTERNOON POPS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW
END OF THE RANGES GIVEN AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE ATTM.
.UNR...NONE.
MURPHY
FXUS63 KFSD 121509 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE LITTLE
LOWER TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA...ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND SUBSIDENCE IS LESS.
LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SHOW TODAY BEING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL MOTION. WITH THIS IN MIND CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
HAVE A GOOD DAY...
PDK #2
tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LOOKING AT SATELLITE WV...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS
SLOWING...WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE 12Z MODELS. 18Z
MESOETA ONLY BRINGS THE UPPER LOW TO THE COASTLINE AS WELL. 21Z RUC
IS MORE AGRESSIVE & EVEN BRINGS LIGHT PCPN INTO NERN PARTS OF THE
FA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS & PLAY DOWN ANY PCPN- AT
LEAST IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLDS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA. THEY HAVE REACHED A DAN-LYH-SHD LINE &
WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...MAY
LOWER THEM A BIT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE...AND
WILL RAISE THEM IN THE EAST AS DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER
60S AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JJ
FXUS61 KAKQ 130036 va
EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HAS ARISEN IN THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS AT 12Z. FCST CHALLENGE NOW IS GOING
FM A RATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY FCST FOR THE S-SE TO A RATHER WET ONE.
OF THE 4 LONG RANGE MODELS TO LOOK AT...IT IS A SPLIT DECISION.
ONE OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS THE RATHER SIGGY VORT OVR SW KS
EXPECTED TO HEAD E OR NE. THE NGM/AVN DON/T APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE STRENGTH OF THIS VORT VERY WELL AND MORE OR LESS
WASH IT OUT OR TAKE IT DUE E FM IT/S CURRENT POSITION. THE ETA/UWNMS
APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE S/W...
CONFIRMED BY THE NEW RUC...AND TAKE IT RIGHT INTO NRN IL/SRN WI ON
SUN. WHAT HELPS LIFT THIS NORTH IS THE SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW CAUSED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN S/W TROF. THESE TWO MERGE OVR AREA
SUN/SUN NGT. THE S/W SHULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES NE INTO
CONFLUENT UPR FLOW. HOWEVER...OTHER DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL COME FROM
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE RGT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. THE UWNMS HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE CONCERN AS IT ALSO BRINGS A TIGHT
UPR LVL JET MAX UP FM THE SOUTH WITH THE KS S/W. THIS PRODUCES A PD
OF CLASSIC JET COUPLING FOR ADDED UVV. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UW MODEL
HAS GONE BALLISTIC ON QPF RGT UNDER THE ASSOCIATED AGEO CIRCULATION
OF THE COUPLED JETS. ALL THIS OCCURS WITH THE TROF NRLY STNRY AT
THE SFC FOR ADDED FOCUS.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC TROF/FNT WL LIKELY HAVE SLIPPED S OF WI OVRNGT...
THE COOLER AIR OVR SRN WI WL BE VRY SHALLOW WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW NOT
TOO FAR UP. LOOKS LIKE A GUD OVRRNG SITUATION PSBL.
WL UP POPS OVR SE TO LIKELY CAT FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS
BACK FARTHER W AS THINGS EVOLVE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE SE...AN AREA
THAT HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF RAIN LATELY. IF THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE
S/W AND COUPLE JET MATERIALIZE...THEN HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ADDITIONALLY...OUR HYDROLOGIST IS OUT OF THE OFFICE
THIS WEEK...A SURE SIGN OF RAIN...
.UWNMS...HAS THE MOST DETAIL OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIKE THE ETA...BUT STRONGER. DEVELOPS UNBELIEVEABLE UVV WITH
COUPLED JET SOLUTION AT 30 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF VRY HIGH AND
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK /?/.
.MKX...NONE.
DAVIS
FXUS63 KGRB 120928 wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
ANALYSIS SHOWS FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE UNDERWAY IN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
SUPPORTED BY DIVING JET INTO DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG
HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM. ALL THIS SUGGESTS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
FORECAST AREA SHOULD AND IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 8 TO 12 HOURS
AS A SHORT WAVE LOCATED AT 06Z OVER SE KANSAS IS HELPING TO CREATE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL UPGLIDE WHICH WILL END NW TO SE BY
LATE PM. LATEST POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AT 06Z WAS LOCATED ALONG
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BURLINGTON IOWA THEN TO WEAK SURFACE LOW SE OF
KANSAS CITY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MOVING SE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
PROFILERS SUPPORT SFC ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WITH
BACKING OF WINDS. AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF CWA..THE CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIP FROM CONVECTION WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST RISK STILL FAR SE ZONES
WHICH LEANING TOWARD CANCELING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY BUT
WILL MONITOR TIL ISSUANCE TIME FOR ANY LAST MINUTE CHANGES IN ONGOING
PRECIP.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING DISSIPATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ALONG WITH TERMINATION OF CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
MODELS HANDLE TERMINATION/MOVEMENT OF PRECIP DIFFERENT WITH ETA
WEAKEST AND NGM AND AVN SLOWER AND HEAVIER WITH 06Z RUC UNUSUALLY
HEAVY OF PRECIP AND APPEARS UNRELIABLE THROUGH NOON FOR SE ZONES.
ALL BRING COOLER AIR AND DRIER AIR IN BY EVENING BEHIND FRONT WITH
CLEARING ALL SUGGESTED BY MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LOWER HUMIDITIES AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER DAYTIME CUMULUS FOR MONDAY.
AVN AND NGM SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION FROM WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ENERGY BUT LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION AS CURRENT PRECIP FIELDS ALONG
WITH SATELLITE AND WIND PROFILER FIELDS MATCH BEST WITH ETA VERSUS
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS THOUGH ETA STILL TOO COOL AND GO WITH
FWC/FAN BLEND EXCEPT TODAY WHICH WILL LOWER PARTS OF FORECAST AREA
SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP.
TODAY PARTS OF ZONES WILL SPLIT TODAY TO HANDLE ENDING PRECIP WITH
HIGHEST POPS AND CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST. MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FAR NW WHICH WILL USE PARTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TONIGHT GO
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AS LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAY MINIMUMS. AGAIN...MONDAY LOOKS
NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NGM AS
APPEARS TOO SLOW ON COOL AIR ARRIVING DESPITE SUNSHINE AND ALSO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH DIURNAL MIXING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WILL OPT FOR LESS THAN QUARTER INCH IN SOUTHEAST 5
COUNTIES AND NEAR TRACE BASIN AVERAGES ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
DRY TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED PERIODS ALL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED MAJOR SHIFT IN JET PATTERN
AS UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST WITH CANADIAN
HIGH MOVING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW STRONG SHORT
WAVE WITH HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AS DID EARLIER MRF BUT LATEST MRF/AVN
RUN SUPPORTS WEAKER SOLUTION FOR SHORT WAVE. AGREE WITH MRF/AVN AS
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CYCLOGENESIS BUT STILL OPT FOR
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WORDING.
COORDINATION...LOT.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDVN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
CID BB 077/056 072/049 064 162-0
MLI MB 078/057 075/052 068 16510
DBQ MB 075/054 071/048 067 162-0
BRL WB 078/059 078/054 071 16730
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
NICHOLS
FXUS63 KDMX 130227 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
ALREADY ALOT OF SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY TO MY WEST. RUC MODEL
SHOWS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN MAKING SOME
PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION. CONSIDERING THE AVAILBLE MOISTURE...SOME
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WILL GO WITH
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOR THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
THEN TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH ALOT OF SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS DIGGING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. SURFACE FRONT
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE.
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSER TO AVN MOS TEMPS. NGM MOS HAS BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND LATELY.
.GRR...NONE.
MJS
FXUS63 KDTX 130250 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS AND LOW TEMPS.
UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT NOW IN NW WI...WILL EXIT CWA BY MID
MORNING. A LARGE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 48 HRS. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
HANDLING OF UPPER LVL AND SFC FEATURES THRU 48 HRS WITH JUST SMALL
DIFFERENCES NOTED. ETA DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLING OF VORT
INTO ND...MORE IN LINE WITH SAT IMAGERY...AS DOES RUC.
MODELS KEEP THE CI OVER US THIS MORNING...AND MAINLY NW WI THIS AFTN
AS VORT SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CU POP TDY...
ESPECIALLY NRN NE MN BEING CLOSEST TO COMMA CLOUD SHIELD. HIGHEST LOW
LVL RH JUST NICKS INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALL MODELS TO BRING THIS
MOISTURE DOWN TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS TROUGH ROTATES THRU AND MAIN
UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED THESE
CLDS TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING IN NRN NE MN TNGT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ALL MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2C NEAR
CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ALSO A PROBLEM WITH LOWS
AS GRADIENT RELAXES...LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THRU SO
HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE MORE CLDS...OTHERWISE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A
FROST ADVISORY.
.DLH...NONE.
TAP
FXUS63 KDLH 130204 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES IN UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHC FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS TO CWFA PRBLY INTO START OF AFTN. LEAD UPPER CIRCULATION
PROFILERS INDICATE OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB AND SW IA DURG MRNG AS IT LIFTS OUT ENEWD.
RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING RH FIELD OF THIS FEATURE BEST WHICH WAS
LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FM COMPLEX THAT FORMED FRI NITE OVER WRN HI
PLNS AND THEN MOVED ENEWD ACROSS PLNS SAT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INDICATE HVY RAIN OCCURING IN LOCATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS OR FFS AS CONDTIONS WARRANT.
UPSTREAM SHORT/WV CAUSING SHWRS/TSTMS CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. PER
06Z RUC...ALTHO SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO LKLY
BRING A CHC FOR SHWRS AND FEW TSTMS WITH ITS PASSAGE THRU START OF
AFTN. CLDS TO DECREASE LTR THIS AFTN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU WITH
CLEAR TO PC CONDS LKLY TNGT. MON APPEARS DRY IN CWFA WITH MAIN RISK FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS WRM AREAS OF NEB WITH WAA AND DESTABILIZATION AS LEE LOW
FORMS. WILL PRBLY NEED TO ADD MISSING MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO EXTENDED
FCST TO ADD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS UVV AND DESTABILIZATION SPREAD EWD.
.OMA...NONE
WIESE
FXUS63 KGID 130800 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL NGT UNDRWAY ACRS THE CWA ATTM. UPR LO E OF
THE DELMARVA KPNG GUD WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVR US AND WL CONT TO BE THE
TRND FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS. BIG ? IS HOW LOW TO GO FOR TEMPS TNT.
SAT PICS SHO MSTLY CLR SKIES IN PLACE WI JST SOME PATCHY THN CI/AC
MOVG ACRS AREA FM TIME TO TIME. DWPTS RNG FM ABT 53 TO 60 IN SC
PORTION OF CWA TO 60 TO 68 ACRS GA PORTION. WNDS LGT SE ATTM AND MAY
TRY TO START BRINGG SLGHTLY HIER DWPTS INTO SRN CWA OVRNGT. PROBLM IS
THAT WE LIKELY DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND...OUTSIDE OF THE COAST...WL
KEEP LWR DWPTS (AND THEREFORE TEMPS) THAN BOTH RUC AND MESOETA MODELS
INDCT. OVRALL...WITH LGT WNDS AND MSTLY CLR SKIES...GUD RADIATNL
COOLNG SHUD TAKE PLACE.
WL NEED TO TAKE TEMPS DOWN A CAT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MORE ACRS
INLAND SC WHR DRIEST AIR CONTS TO HOLD FIRM.
CWF...CONDITIONS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE WATERS. BUOYS REPORTING
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND 3 TO 4 FT. WILL REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION
WORDING FOR GA WATERS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AS HIGH TIDE
WILL BE OVER IN ALL AREAS BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE DECLINE.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
WOODWORTH/SLF
FXUS62 KGSP 130114 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
845 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
LOOKING AT SATELLITE WV...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS
SLOWING...WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE 12Z MODELS. 18Z
MESOETA ONLY BRINGS THE UPPER LOW TO THE COASTLINE AS WELL. 21Z RUC
IS MORE AGRESSIVE & EVEN BRINGS LIGHT PCPN INTO NERN PARTS OF THE
FA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS & PLAY DOWN ANY PCPN- AT
LEAST IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLDS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA. THEY HAVE REACHED A DAN-LYH-SHD LINE &
WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...MAY
LOWER THEM A BIT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE...AND
WILL RAISE THEM IN THE EAST AS DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER
60S AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JJ
FXUS61 KAKQ 130036 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
...UPDATE FOCUSES ON -RA THREAT IN SE CWA...AND CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...
QUASI-STATIONARY BDRY/TROF OVER E CWA THIS MORNING WITH WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING NE ALONG BDRY. 12Z RUC PROGS 500MB VORT MAX TO
MV NE TO GRB BY 18Z AND EXIT INTO E LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SHORTWAVE
QUITE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OVER E
WI. SFC WAVE ALSO INDICATED BY SFC OBS/MSAS ANALYSIS OVER NE IL AT
15Z. 12Z RUC MAINTAINS QV-CONV OVR E CWA THROUGH 00Z. SFC OBS
INDICATED -RA/RA SHIELD OVR E WI SPREADDING N OF 12ZRUC FCST. PER
COORD WITH APX...WILL INCREASE POPS OVER E COUNTIES FM CHANCE TO
CATEGORICAL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS PRECIP SHIELD OVRSPREADS N LK
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO ADJUST MAX TMPS
DOWNWARD IN THIS AREA.
TO WEST...VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING COLD FRNT FROM DLH-MSP AT
15Z. PROG FRONT TO ENTER SW CWA AT 19Z...WITH WND SHFT TO NW. FRONT
SHOULD REACH MQT-IMT BY 23-00Z...WITH CLEARING BEHIND.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KAPX 131443 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
KAPX 88D LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCT SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER CELLS AROUND GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES.
LATEST IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADAR KGRB SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
MODERATE ISOLD HEAVY RAIN CREEPING NE OUT OF SE WI THROUGH CENTRAL
LAKE MI TOWARD NW LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DPVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPART JET MAX. LATEST RUC
POINTS TOWARD DPVA INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ERN UPR AND
NW LOWER MI ZONES NW OF A LINE FROM HTL TO PRESQUE ISLE. ALTHOUGH...
CURRENT NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS FARTHER N THAN THE POSITION
SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUC. WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI ZONES AS OUTLINED ABOVE.
VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF
500 TO 600...LI'S OF -2 WITH SFC DWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SOLAR HEATING
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE EVEN IN SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL DROP POPS TO MORE OF THE SCT/LIKELY
CATEGORY AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY NW OF THAT AREA.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWNWARD FOR ERN UPR AND
FAR NRN LOWER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.
.APX...NONE.
EME
FXUS63 KDTX 131336 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING CLOUD DECK SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BREAKS EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT
MORE SOLID OVERCAST...JUST WORKING ITS WAY ONTO MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH INDICATING MID LEVEL DRYING TO
BE SLOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE... HAVE UPDATED WORDING
IN FORECAST TO INDICATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
WSR-88D INDICATING SHOWERS...ALBEIT LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...BREAKING
OUT ACROSS CWA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED /MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON/
PHRASE FROM FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING...STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...EVENING.
.DTX...NONE
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KGRR 131042 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER IL WILL LIFT INTO SW LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TO CATEGORICAL FOR MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. ALSO WILL ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING AS WELL.
.GRR...NONE.
MJS
FXUS63 KMQT 130833 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SPRINKLES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT
MAX OVER SD. 300 MB JET MAX REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SD. THE VORT MAX AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SO
THE THREAT WILL BE EARLY ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. WILL ADJUST THE WORDING A LITTLE.
NEXT FEATURE TO KEY ON IS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND 80KT 300 MB JET
MAX THAT PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. RUC MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WITH STRONG 700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY STREAMING SE ACROSS ND AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE NW CWA TONIGHT BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
THE POPS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER SEEING 12Z MODEL
RUNS. 500 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW -20 DEG C OVER ND AND THIS COLD TROF
IS HEADED SE.
FXUS63 KMPX 130822 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...NO UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. LOOKING AT OBSERVED
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE ATMOSPHERE
UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THUS AFTER 00Z
ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING BY 00Z COULD
GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG OR STRATUS IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA WHERE
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT
NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE IN
FORECAST. BORSUM.
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023
FXUS65 KBYZ 131516 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED. LOOKING AT
OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
THUS AFTER 00Z ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING
BY 00Z COULD GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG
OR STRATUS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA
WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST
BUT NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE
IN FORECAST. BORSUM.
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023
FXUS65 KTFX 130924 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM SUN JUN 13 1999
CRRNT TREND SHOWS LOW LVL MSTR INCREASING ACRS NYS. RUC ANALYSIS ON
MSTR LOOP SHOWS LOW AND MID LVL RH INCRSG PAST 12 HRS AND RUC FCST
IS FOR TREND TO CONT. MSTR IS DEEPER THAN PREV DAY SO WILL NOT MIX
OUT AS READILY THEREFORE WILL CONT WITH MSTLY CLDY FCST FROM PREV
PCKG. ACRS CNTRL ZNS SOME CU DVLPG AND BREAKS IN CLDS WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HTG WHICH IS MAKING A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH CLD CVR WILL
AFFECT TEMPS. WITH THE INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR THINK THERE WILL BE MORE
CLDS THAN SUN SO WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS BUT GIVE A LARGER RANGE. ACRS
FAR WRN AND NRNN ZNS HTG HAS CAUSED CU FIELD TO DVLP WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE. SYR ALREADY 77 AND PEO, UCA AT 75 AND CLIMBING FAST.
HWVR FEEL THAT INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR WILL CAUSE CU TO FILL IN AND KEEP
TEMPS FM REACHING YESETERDAY'S LVLS. ACRS THE S A FEW SPRINKLES
FALLING OVR ERN PA AND SERN NY BUT NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY. CRRNT 30
PCNT POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THERE.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS71 KBUF 131409 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
RUC BRINGS LOW JUST TO NORTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH...AND THAT IS
CURRENTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED JUST OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTION. FAY REPORTED 3/4 MILE
IN HEAVY RAIN LAST HOUR WITH 0.08 IN THE BUCKET.
STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIS IN -1 TO -3 RANGE. BUT AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AND AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY...LIGHTNING STRIKES CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF
LOW. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED.
KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. DO EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO
EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY PRESENT...EXPECT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH 2/3RDS OF FORECAST
AREA. INVERSION AROUND 650 MB SHOULD PUT A LID ON THINGS.
CWF...NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
OF 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR.
.ILM...NONE.
DIGIORGI
FXUS62 KMHX 131352 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
IT IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT OUR PRESENT SFC
LOW...MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT 13Z...WILL GIVE ERN NC SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN. GIVEN A MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AND LI'S OF
-4 OFF THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
IN FOR THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY GIVEN BREAKS SHOWING UP ON VIS
SATPIX AND CONTINUED DRYING DEPICTED BY LATEST RUC MODEL. STILL AM
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR MUCH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN
POPPING THRU...WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS UPWARD A BIT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
NEAR OUR AREA IN THE TUES/WEDS TIME FRAME WITH A GOOD CHC FOR SOME
SOAKING RAINS. WE'RE KEEPING OUR FINGERS CROSSED.
COASTAL...ALL THE MARINE OBS SHOWING LGT NW WINDS CURRENTLY. WILL
INTIALIZE WITH NW BECOMING S LATE. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS NEEDED.
.MHX...NONE.
COLLINS
FXUS72 KRAH 130636 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SOME DRIER AIR...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN
PORTION OF OUR FA. MOISTURE GRADIENT OBSERVED ACROSS CTRL PORTION OF
FA AS NOTED WITH SFC RUC DWPT AND THTA-E FIELDS. WK SFC TROUGH
INDICATED AS WELL EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SW PORTION OF FA...WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE PATTERN. BEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME
SET UP N/S ACROSS WRN PORTIO OF FA.
FEEL BEST CHC OF PRECIP TDY ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. WILL THUS KEEP
POPS AS IS. WILL AGAIN MONITOR WATER VAPOR DEFORMATION ZONE
CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS FA FOR POSSIBLE INDICATOR OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WBZ SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...NEAR 9 KFT. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY AS WELL...WITH DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E BETWEEN 25 AND 30. THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SVR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. POSSIBLE FLOODING INDICATED AS WELL WITH
SLOW MVMNT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS
RECEIVING RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
WILL ADJUST TEMPS A BIT.
MISILN OUT IN A FEW.
.ILN...NONE.
DISTEFANO
FXUS71 KCLE 131345 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF AREA. DESPITE FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-1800J...BOUYANCY CANNOT
OVERCOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW. WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER RUC BUT FLOW WEAK AND
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION.
MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LATER TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE MENTION IN ZONES. MOST CHANGES THIS UPDATE WILL BE COSMETIC.
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS72 KCAE 131430 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1033 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO MAINLY ADJUST WORDING TO A THICKER CLD
COVER...AND HIT PCPN A LITTLE HARDER IN THE NWRN PTN OF CWA. MID LVL
SHRTWV PASSING OVR AREA TDAY. BOTH NLG AND WDL PROFILERS SHOW
BACKING WINDS BLO 700MB. BASICALLY...HIGH PRES WL KEEP NRLY LLVL
FLOW THRU THE AFTN...AND RUC CORRECTLY SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
FM THE SFC THRU 850 MB...AS DEW PTS CONT TO DROP. CRNTLY...LAPS SFC
BASED LI'S MAINLY SHOW THE CWA AT OR ABV ZERO...WITH THE RUC
PROGGING ONLY A SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION THRU THE AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO
SOME MID LVL COOLING. CRNT CAPES AND ETA CAPE PROGS ARE ARND 500 IS
ALL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND COOL AIR
ALOFT TO PRBLY MAINTAIN SHWRS THAT ARE CRNLY IN NWRN CWA...MOVG
SLIGHTLY EWRD. BUT LITTLE ELSE SHOULD HAPPEN.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 131519 sd
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE THINGS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
STABLE NOW, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH GPS DERIVED
SOUNDING PW OF AOA 2" THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CONTINUED ON-
SHORE FLOW/SEABREEZE ENHANCED PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND A
COOL FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NC TX. LATEST RUC HAS THE COOL FRONT ALL
THE WAY TO CLL BY LATE THIS AFTN AND GIVEN 12Z UA DATA (INDICATING
NOT ALL THAT BAD HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE FRONT), AM NOT WILLING TO
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH SELY FLOW ALREADY RETURNING TO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA (AND PC SKIES THERE ALREADY)...WILL BREAK THESE
ZONES OUT AND PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE. OTRWS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
GOING PACKAGE. 41/45
.KHGX...NONE.
PRELIMS...
CLL EE 087/071 090/068 087 633
IAH TT 087/072 089/069 087 534
GLS TT 087/079 089/075 087 544
FXUS64 KSJT 131441 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
AFTER VIEWING LATEST KSJT 88D TRENDS AND THE 12Z RUC...LOOKS LIKE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY HOLD OFF OUT WEST. CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CWA HAS DECREASED AND WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHES THE CONCHO
VALLEY...PARTLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING EAST AHEAD OF IT...AND
PARTLY DUE TO THE BEST FOCUS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
STAYING OUT WEST. RUC MODEL NAILS THIS FEATURE. SOME WEAK CONVECTION
HAS FIRED OVER STERLING COUNTY...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. GOES
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPE OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...JUST HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PUT A HARD TO FIND WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH OF KSPS TO NORTH
OF KSJT TO THE BIG BEND...AND AGREE WITH MORNING SHIFT THAT PRECIP
BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT AS LIKELY AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL...EITHER OVER THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...OR EVEN OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY COULD QUICKLY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...SO WILL KEEP A SHARP EYE
OUT FOR CONVECTION.
GOING FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY MIGHT BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...AND WOULD LIKE TO TWEAK BACK POPS
A CATEGORY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK FINE.
20
FXUS74 KFWD 131441 tx
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
88D KMLB CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SPACE
COAST FROM SATELLITE BEACH TO PALM BAY MOVING NORTHWEST. LATEST RUC
SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT IN PART IS SUPPORTING CURRENT
ACTVTY. LATEST MAPS SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX DIV SHOWS DIVERGENCE MAX
OVER THE STORMS OFFSHORE AND A CONVERGENCE MAX OVER OSCEOLA
COUNTY...WHICH SEEMS RIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY AT A SLOWER RATE THAN YESTERDAY WITH WINDS JUST
ABV THE SFC OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. CAPE SOUNDING
SUGGESTS A MORE ENE STORM MOTIONAT THE LOW LEVELS. NO UPDATED
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...E SWELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT OFFSHORE BUOYS AND HAVE
SEPERATED WIND WAVE FM SWELL. NO OTHER CHGS MADE.
.MLB...NONE.
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KTBW 131406 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999
...GLOBALLY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH
AMERICA AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN REORGANIZES FROM A 4 TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 5 WAVE PATTERN. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA AND PULL POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. ENERGY FROM YESTERDAYS ALEUTIAN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROF ENERGY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ON WATER VAPOR
APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AROUND THEMSELVES (FUJIWARA?). JET ENERGY
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS WILL FINISH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROF
AROUND 48N/150W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS NEXT COMING WEEKEND
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC STRENGTHENS ALLOWING
100+ KNOT JET ENERGY TO BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK WITH
DEAMPLIFICATION BY THE JUNE 20-22 TIME PERIOD.
THE NET RESULT IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEING DOMINANT. AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS COMING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH
NORMAL 7-9 DAYS FROM NOW.
...LOCALLY...
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AROUND
KMCI MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI WHICH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DSM ALONG WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET...SHEAR ZONE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND APPROACHING COLD POOL AT 500 MB. A MUCH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SETTING OFF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/SC ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS CELLUAR INDICATING THIS IS DIURNAL IN NATURE.
THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SAID SHORTWAVES ARE ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA SLOWLY MOVING ENE. DVN 88D IS PICKING UP MAINLY CLOUDS JUST
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ANY SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES THEN MAINLY
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT ALL WERE NOT RESOLVING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE RUC HINTS AT THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE ETA CATCHES THIS SHORTWAVE BUT LOOSES IT BY 18Z.
THE AVN IS MORE CORRECT IN THE PLACING OF THE NOW COLD FRONT ACROSS
ILLINOIS AT 18Z WHILE THE ETA/NGM ARE CATCHING THE TROF/DEW POINT
FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. 18Z MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SHARP GRADIENT WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 50S AT KALO TO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHEAR ZONE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT WHILE LAPSE
RATES SLOWLY STEEPEN ACROSS IOWA. WITH SHRA/TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING
WILL GO LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. MONDAY PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS AROUND AND FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC SO DIURNAL CU/SC
SHOULD DEVELOP.
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
MOST AREAS BEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE
IN. MODELS INDICATE RESONABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP AND WILL
INTRODUCE LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FWC/FAN NUMBERS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
...EXTENDED...
THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S. LINGERING RAIN IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY WITH A HINT OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND SPI.
.DVN...NONE.
NC
FXUS63 KDMX 131917 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
949 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK BAROTROPIC OCEAN LOW WELL E OF THE LOWER
DELMARVA PENINSULA ATTM MOVING SLOWLY N MIDWAY BTWN THE E OF FALSE
CAPE BUOY AND THE 009 BUOY AT ARND 1013 MB. THIS TRACK IS WELL E OF
THE ERLR FCST TRACKS GOING BACK A FEW MODEL GUIDNC PKGS. IN HIND SIGHT
GUIDNC CONTINUALLY HAD PROBLEMS FCSTG THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE UPR
LOW PRIMARILY FROM THE CST W AND N ALONG THE FCST TRACK. EVEN AT THIS
LATE HR THE 09Z RUC WILL NOT LKLY VERIFY.
IN ANY EVENT TDA WILL BE A MOSTLY CLDY DAY ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA AS
FEATURES ADVECT FROM ENE TO WSW. MC SINCE THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME. LTST RADAR DEPICTS A COUPLE AREAS OF SCT LT
SHWRS VCNTY OF THE XTRM NRN SHENANDOAH VLY N ARS THE MRB/HGR AREAS AND
ANOTHER E TO W AREA OF SCT LT ACTVTY FROM THE CNTRL BAY ACRS THE TIDAL
POTOMAC BLO COLONIAL BEACH TO W OF THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA. ELSW SOME
ISOLD SHWRS. ABV WILL LKLY BE THE STORY FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY.
WHATEVER ACTVTY OCCURS WILL BE MORE OF A MINOR INCONVENIENCE THAN NOT.
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.
.LWX...NONE.
PAP
FXUS61 KLWX 130622 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE...
...BREAK OUT FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST COUNTIES FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
...LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WHERE CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
VIS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST LOWER. BEST BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LOWER. SO...WILL OPT FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. MODIFIED MORNING
SOUNDING /TEMPS INTO MID 80S-TDS UPPER 60S/ YIELDS AFTERNOON/EVENING
CAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10.
DETERMINING FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC...LOTS OF CHOICES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT PENETRATE
AS FAR INLAND. RAINFALL YESTERDAY WAS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LEAVING WESTERN PORTIONS DRY.
THEREFORE...A BOUNDARY EXISTS BETWEEN THE WETTER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND DRIER WESTERN PORTION. FINALLY...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...FURTHER ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY MIX. SO...REGARDING
LOCATION...BELIEVE ANY AREA IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN COULD HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AGAIN TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DRY
INTRUSION AT MID LEVELS FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION YESTERDAY FIRED
ALONG THIS LINE AS IT MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER. NOTE 12Z
BUF SOUNDING 660 MB TD DEPRESSION OF 38C. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
DRY AIR HAVING DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING WEST. RUC SUGGESTS
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO BE LIMITED TODAY.
HOWEVER TRACK RECORD OF MODELS HANDLING THESE WESTWARD MOVING
SYSTEMS...SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ADEQUATE. CONVECTION BREAKING OUT SO
FAR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IS WELL BEHAVED WITH STORMS SHOWING
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOR
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...EVEN
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAN PRODUCE A BUSY DAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 INCHES. WAVE LOCATED OVER IL PROGGED TO
MOVE TO OH BY LATE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS HISTORY OVER WI/IL OF
PRODUCING COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND LIKE SCENARIO POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER. FLOOD THREAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION AT PRESENT.
.DTX...NONE.
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KMQT 131539 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999
CURRENT 88D INDICATES CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NW PORTION OF
FA IN AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT SFC RUC DATA INDICATES WRN
TWO-THIRDS OF FA UNSTABLE...WITH HIGHEST CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
ACROSS EXTREME EASTRN IN. THIS INSTABILITY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.
YET POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SVR ACROSS FA.
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NGM COMING MORE
AROUND WITH THE ETA. AFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NW OF FA...WILL BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...AS ENTRANCE
REGION OF 25H JET REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN GRT LKS.
85H CONVERGENCE SETS UP ACROSS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH APPROACH OF 85H
FRONT. THIS ZONE OF LLVL FORCING MOVES INTO OUR FA FOR MONDAY. AT
THE SFC...EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ILN FA ON MONDAY. ETA HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTANT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. DRIER
NW FLOW SHOULD MOVE INTO FA FROM THE NW ON MONDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS W...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. WILL GO WIDELY SCT ACROSS SE SECTION.
FOR MONDAY...FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH LIKELY/CATAGORICAL POPS ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLD COVER IS...WILL DIRECTLY
AFFECT TEMPS. WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. WILL CONSIDER THIS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED.
MISILN OUT SHORTLY.
.ILN...NONE.
DISTEFANO
FXUS71 KRLX 131440 oh