FXUS61 KRLX 150704 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 300 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003 ******************************************************************** 300 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003 TODAY AND TONIGHT -- > COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CWA TODAY AND OUT OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CWA ATTM. WITH HEATING TODAY WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH FRONT. BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND KEPT LIKELY POPS THERE. CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND STAYED CLOSE TO ORIGINAL GRID TEMPS AND GUIDANCE TEMPS AS THEY SEEM RESONABLE. CLEARING TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL MENTION FOG DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS THAT SHOULD CLEAR FIRST. TUESDAY ON -- > WHAT LITTLE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS LEFT TUESDAY MORNING IS ERADICATED DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PROVIDES CALM BEFORE STORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRUNT OF STORM...EFFECTS OF ISABEL...IS WELL NORTHEAST OF RLX FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHEAST TIP OF AREA ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THIS ONE...ALMOST DOWN TO WHETHER IT IS THE CHESAPEAKE OR THE DELAWARE BAY. EDGED CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST SHY OF LIKELY NORTHEAST TIP 12Z FRIDAY. FRONT GETS LOST IN CIRCULATION OF ISABEL FRIDAY. EVOLVED POPS TO 30-40 AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY REMOVING SEPARATION BETWEEN ISABEL AND FRONT. THINGS DRY OUT SATURDAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE ON THE STORM. NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NUMBERS. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. JS/TRM ******************************************************************** 900 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 A FEW DIURNAL SHRA AND A COUPLE TSRA FORMED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM HEATING AND WEAK S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE ARE CURRENTLY DYING...WHILE LEAD BAND OF LIGHT SHRA CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE OHIO. POP STRUCTURE...WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE TO THE EAST...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD UP WELL AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED. TEMPS LOOK GOOD OVERALL...BUT WILL NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY WORD CLEANUP OTHERWISE. CL ******************************************************************** 518 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO HANDLE SHRA IN MOUNTAINS FORMING ON UPSLOPE FLOW. CL ******************************************************************** 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 ...TONIGHT AND MONDAY... A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ASSISTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WHICH WILL BRING COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT AVAILABLE. NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN WAY OF QPF BUT CERTAINLY THINK ALL LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE. WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS REDUCING RADIATIVE COOLING. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AS 850H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FROM TODAY SO EXPECTING TEMPS IN MID 70S. ...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ANY POST FRONTAL/LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD BE EXITING CKB-EKN CORRIDOR MONDAY EVENING. FOG MENTIONED FOR SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ISABEL OFF SE COAST. YET...THINK MOISTURE STILL LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING INTO MOUNTAINS FROM E WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE CONTINUING SAGA OF HURRICANE ISABEL WILL DOMINATE THINKING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER TRACK WAS USED WHICH BRINGS ISABEL NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON THURSDAY AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE WESTERN FRINGES INTO AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON THURSDAY. WHILE ISABEL WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISABEL MAY ROB QUITE A BIT FROM IT. IN ANY EVENT...BY SATURDAY ISABEL AND THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS OF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY SUNDAY. MOS TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED CLOSELY. HC/BATTY/JMV ******************************************************************** 955 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 MORNING UPDATE... MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS IN EKN AREA. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE OFF CAROLINA COAST BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS IN FAR WEST TO CHANCE LATE TODAY AND WILL ADD CHANCE TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. EXPECT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST SYSTEM TO REMAIN EAST OF MOUNTAINS. HC ********************************************************************