AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOYD...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
THE REST OF OUR CWA. WINDS HAVE LARGELY DECOUPLED OVER LAND...BUT
THEY REMAIN BRISK AT 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF. WILL LET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR GULF EXPIRE BUT WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION WITH 15-20
KT WINDS OVERNIGHT...IN AGREEMENT WITH RUC PROGS.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEN NEAR THE
COAST. THESE SHOULD BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DRY ADVECTION FROM NW...
BUT STILL WILL PROBABLY NEED TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FL BIG BEND. ASIDE FROM WIND AND SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. THANKS TO NEW FOR
COORDINATION.
TJT
FXUS72 KMFL 160046 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
...GLOBALLY...
GLOBAL WATER VAPOR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 100+ KNOT JET
RUNNING FROM THE DATELINE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDENCES OF CHINA
WHILE A THREE WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE. A JET OF
90-100 KNOTS WAS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO ABOUT 20W. TWO POWERFUL SHORTWAVES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PACIFIC JET...THE LEAD ONE IN THE BERING SEA WITH THE
SECOND APPROACHING THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THESE SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND ANOTHER NORTH OF HUDSON
BAY WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLES IN THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE COMING
WEEK.
FLOYD AND GERT ARE THE KEY TO THE OVERALL TIMING OF EVERYTHING.
FLOYD HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONTINENT DOWN
AND ONCE FLOYD SPEEDS UP GERT SHOULD BE TURNING NORTH AND SLOWING
SYSTEMS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE TROPICS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PROMISING
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEAR BERMUDA (WHICH WOULD BE HARVEY) AND OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC (WHICH WOULD BE HILARY).
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS WITH HARVEY
PROBABLY OCCURING FIRST.
PACIFIC JET AND SHORTWAVES TO EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE WEST COAST
RIDGE IN TIME ALLOWING THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE TO
DIVE FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SENARIO WHICH WOULD DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE IT DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND THEN EAST.
NET RESULT HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL AND THEN GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THIS CUT OFF MEANS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL.
...LOCALLY...
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAVE A NICE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN IOWA WITH ANOTHER ACROSS MONTANA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF COLD WEATHER SC/CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE COLD AIR POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SURROUNDING 88D SITES INDICATE NO
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND THE 15Z RUC SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY QG FORCING.
HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
THIS AREA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE IOWA SHORTWAVE WAS
REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TROF RUNNING FROM KEAU TO KFOD.
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE NEAR SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES THEN
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN AGAIN.
SERIOUS AWIPS PROBLEMS AND A MOLASSES INTERNET HAS MADE THE FORECAST
A REAL CHALLENGE.
OF THE 12Z MODELS THE AVN INITIALIZED AND IS VERIFYING THE BEST AT
18Z. UNFORTUNATELY ITS THE MODEL THAT HAS THE MOST GRIDS MISSING IN
AWIPS. SINCE THE ETA WAS SLOWER THAN THE NGM I/LL GO WITH IT AND
THEN SLOW IT DOWN ABOUT 12 HOURS WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MISSING AVN. SOOO HERE WE GO. 15Z AND 18Z RUC
INCREASE THE QG FORCING OF THE IOWA SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME -SHRA/--RA TO
DEVELOP BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON/T REALLY LOWER AT
ALL. BOTH RUC RUNS INDICATE PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOTION BY 00Z SO IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULDN/T LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER ZONE ISSUANCE. AFTER THAT RH FIELDS REMAIN LOW SO A MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME AREAS OF PARTLY
CLOUDY POSSIBLE. COLD POOL TO STILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH COLD WEATHER SC/CU DEVELOPING BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
SINCE THE NGM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS I HAVE THROWN OUT THE
FWC AS BEING TOO WARM. FAN NUMBERS ARE A MUCH BETTER STARTING POINT
AND BASED ON LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY GO LOWER THAN WHAT FAN
INDICATES. TRAJECTORY METHOD ARGUES FOR GOING COOLER AND WILL FOLLOW
AS SUCH. QUESTION IS WHETHER TO MENTION ANY FROST. MT CARROLL...
FAIRBANK...AND ELIZABETH REPORTED 32...33...34 RESPECTIVELY THIS AM
SO IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS
IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
...EXTENDED...
FLOYD TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERIC BRAKE ON INTO THE EXTENDED AND BY THE
TIME HE ALLOWS EVERYTHING TO MOVE AGAIN GERT WILL HAVE TURNED NORTH
RESULTING IN ANOTHER SLOW DOWN. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NEXT SYSTEM
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY MONDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER
12Z RUN OF NOGAPS WAS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN.
ADDITIONALLY THE 00Z RUN OF MRFX WAS SLOWER THAN THE MRF. THEREFORE
WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND I
WOULDN/T BE SUPRISED IF THE PRECIP DIDN/T OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY.
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.
ZONES WILL LIKELY BE LATE BUT SHOULD BE OUT BY 400 PM.
.DVN...NONE.
NC
FXUS63 KLOT 151949 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
950 AM EST WED SEP 15 1999
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SO WL UPDATE
FOR THIS. EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF SWINGING THROUGH SD IS GENERATING
OVC080 OVER SRN MN.
MEANWHILE THE BAND OF CLDS IN MO AND CTRL IL IS MEETING WITH DRIER
AIR ALLOWING ACAS CLDS TO DISSIPATE. LAKE TEMP AND 850 DIFFS AND
GOOD NW FLOW THIS AFTN WL ALLOW FOR SOME CLDS IN PRONE AREAS.
RUC SHOWS DECENT CAA WHICH WL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 70 NORHT TO LWR 70S
SOUTH.
.IWX...NONE.
JLA
FXUS73 KIND 150837 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
919 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
HAVE UPDATED NRN LWR/ERN UPR MI ZONES TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER
WORDING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SRN
MN/NRN IA...WITH DIVERGENT/ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING E ACROSS MI.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN DIURNAL CU AND WDLY SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS
OF THE DIURNAL INSOLATION OVER LAND...SUSPECT THE INSTABILITY/
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES WILL ONCE AGAIN GENERATE LAKE CLOUDS AND
AS SUCH WILL BE A FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT.
RUC GRIDDED DATA/MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 925-850 MB WINDS VEERING TO
THE NNW/N OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN LWR MI WITH APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS.
850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 3-4C AND 900 MB TEMPS BTWN 5-7C STILL PLENTY
SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH
RELATIVE MOISTURE UP TO INVERSION BASE (AROUND 4500FT MSL). GIVEN
THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE REGIME IN PLACE...LAKE CLOUD BANDS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST AND (WITH THE ANTICIPATED LOW-LVL FLOW) CONFINED
ALONG THE LAKE MI AND NRN LAKE HURON COASTS...AS WELL AS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES IN ERN UPR MI. WILL CONTINUE
THE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING OVER THESE AREAS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS.
CLEARING SKIES/GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES
WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWEST
READINGS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ANTICIPATED
LAND BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION/MIXING...ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LAKE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING/FROST THREAT ALONG THE COASTS.
.APX...NONE.
HURLEY
FXUS63 KGRR 160046 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
APX 88D SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DOMINATED BY LOCAL SCALE EFFECTS. CURRENT
RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE
ORIGINS IN LOCATIONS IN WHICH SURFACE WINDS CONVERGE DUE TO LAND
ORIENTATIONS...AS NOTED BY LAKE BANDS BETWEEN THE MANITOU ISLANDS IN
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION.
MODIFIED APX 12Z SOUNDING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE MOISTURE
PATTERNS... WHICH GENERATED A CAPE AROUND 170 J/KG AND TT'S TO 35. 12Z
RUC SHOWING 850 TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 2C TO 3C THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 850/700 MB MOISTURE TO REMAIN AROUND 60 TO 70 FOR MUCH OF EAST
UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER. RUC SHOWING 925 AND 850 MB WINDS TO BE
WESTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND
320 DEGREES. LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF EAST UPPER WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AREAS AROUND GAYLORD...CHARLEVOIX AND KALKASKA WITH THE
NORTHWEST WIND ORIENTATION.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 151500 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE ENDING LK ENHANCED PRECIP ALG SUPERIOR
SHORE FM MUNISING TO WHITEFISH POINT AND CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS THIS
AFTN.
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 1007MB LOW PRES OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH
SFC TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SAGINAW BAY. TROF ACTING MORE AS A
WIND SHIFT LINE THAN ANYTHING ELSE AS PER SFC OBS NO PRECIP REPORTED
IN CONUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT ATTM. MQT 88D CONTINES TO SHOW LGT LK
ENHANCED SHRA ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FM MUNISING WEST TO WHITEFISH
POINT. SHRA ARE VERY LGT W/ 88D ESTIMATED PRECIP OVER LAST 3 HRS
LESS THAN .10 INCH. DLT/T IN SE LK SUPERIOR ARE AROUND 15 AS 850MB
TEMPS ARE 2 C WHILE LK TEMPS ARE 17 C. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
AS 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIV BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EFFECTED
AREA.
14Z VIS SAT SHOWS SCT TO BKN CEIL ACROSS MAJORITY OF U.P. WITH MORE
CLOUDS ALONG THE LK SHORE...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE DZ AND LGT
SHRA. EXPECT FG REDUCING VIS TO LESS THAN 2MI SHOWING UP OVER
INTERIOR WRN U.P. AND BACK INTO NERN MN TO DISSIPATE AS MIXING
OCCURS AND WARMS SFC TO 900MB LEVEL...ELIMINATING INVERSION.
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z TO 21Z POINT TO CU DEV OVR MOST OF THE
U.P. WITH LOWER CEILINGS EAST WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW HANGS ON
THROUGHOUT AFTN. CURRENT FCST HAS MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND THIS
APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK. WL UPDATE ERN ZONES TO TAPER PRECIP OFF
FAIRLY EARLY THIS AFTN AND SHOW IMPROVING TRENDS AS HI PRES BEGINS
TO INFLUENCE FA.
.MQT...NONE.
JLA
FXUS63 KMQT 150841 mi
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
846 AM MDT WED SEP 15 1999
MINOR TWEAKING IS ABOUT THE ONLY THING NEEDED HERE FOR UPDATES AND
ESSENTIALLY FOR WINDS. GIST OF GOING FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOOD. MIXING
TEMPERATURES AGREE WELL WITH WHAT IS FORECAST PRESENTLY AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING CHANGING THESE.
COMPARING THE RUC RUN FOR 15/12Z AND THE THE ETA RUN FOR 15/00Z YIELDS
SIMILAR RESULTS IN THE SHORT TERM. A VORT MAX IS SHOWN OVER MONTANA BY
BOTH RUNS AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THIS FEATURE AS WELL. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE FOR IT TO DO ANYTHING WITH...HOWEVER. PATTERN ALOFT
BECOMES ZONAL ACCORDING TO THE RUC RUN AS WELL. CHB
BIL UU 076/046 081/050 080 52000
LVM .. 080/040 083/... ... 52000
HDN .. 078/043 084/... ... 52000
MLS .. 075/046 083/050 ... 52000
4BQ .. 074/042 082/... ... 52000
BHK .. 073/038 077/... ... 52000
SHR UU 075/042 081/044 080 52000
FXUS65 KMSO 150856 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
WILL DELAY ZFP RELEASE UNTIL AFTER 10 PM HRCN CONF CALL.
AS PER LATEST IR LOOPS...HRCN FLOYD CONTINUES TO MOVE NNE & USING
AWIPS DIST/SPEED FUNCTION...LOOKS TO BE ACCELERATING...MOVING AT
ABT 18 KTS. AS OF 00Z IT IS STILL OFFSHORE...ROUGHLY ABEAM OF CHS
& A BIT FURTHER NNE THAN 00Z TPC FCST. GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
FLOYD...DON'T EXPECT PGF TO INCREASE MUCH FURTHER ACROSS THE CWFA.
WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...MAINLY SUSTAINED IN MID 20S...GUSTING INTO MID/UPPER 30S
...PRIMARILY IN SPIRAL BANDS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN CNTYS.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS & EVEN DECREASES OVER THE PAST HOUR...WILL
LIMIT WIND ADVISORY AREA TO NC NW & SRN PIEDMONT & ERN SC PIEDMONT
CNTYS. WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON WINDS ON ALL ZONES WEST OF THERE. THIS
SEEMS TO BODE WELL WITH ETA BLYR WIND PROGS & LATEST RUC DATA.
KGSP 88D STORM TOTAL PRECIP INDICATES A SWATH OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH RNFL
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN DAVIE SOUTH TO EASTERN UNION CO NC & IN GENERAL
...STP SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH 6 HRLY PCPN REPORTS ENDING
AT 00Z. SO...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDL SPIRAL BAND PCPN OVERNIGHT
...PREFER TO LEAVE CURRENT FFA AS IS. OVERALL...PCPN HAS BEEN CREEPING
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT & MEASURABLE PCPN HASN'T EVEN MADE IT WEST OF FFA
ZONES. LIKELY TO SEE ONLY MINIMAL ADDL WESTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT...SO
WILL LIKELY SCALE BACK & DROP POPS IN SOME WESTERN ZONES AS WELL.
.GSP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082.
CSH
FXUS62 KCHS 160125 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
845 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN CWA.
21Z RUC RUN ALONG WITH LATEST SFC OBS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING TO W OF JAMES RVR FM NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SE WNDS
PICKING UP. WL MAKE AJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WHERE NECESSARY.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KFSD 151958 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1034 AM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
QUITE VIGOROUS WAVE PASSING INTO NW IA WITH WV INDICATING STG SUBSIDENCE
SIGNATURE IN FAR SE SD IN WAKE. MID CLDS PREVAIL...AND WHAT FEW SPRINKLES
WERE...ARE NO MORE. OTHER MID CLDS THRU SCNTRL SD WHERE RUC INDICATES
MID LVL RH PLUME AND WAA IN SCNTRL SD. LTL MORE ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND MAY BE RESULT OF LTL COOLER AIR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY ABV MOIST LAYER INDUCED BY PASSING WAVE. TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY REAL ISSUE. RUC 85H TMPS...WK SFC FLOW...AND LTL EXPECTED CLOUDS
ALL LEAD TO RANGES IN GOING FCST. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE...AND MAY CLEAN UP VALID PAST WEATHER IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.
NO SIG UPDTS NEEDED.
.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN
FXUS63 KUNR 151446 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
802 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
16/0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NM INVOF KATS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BASIN/SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR KSPS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LAID DOWN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWFA EXTENDS FROM BETWEEN SEMINOLE AND LAMESA SOUTH TO KMAF AND
IS MOVING WEST PER WSR-88D IMAGERY. LATEST ADAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DECENT THETAE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE KHOB AREA SOUTHEAST TO KMAF.
PRIND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL AUGMENT CONVECTION OVER LEA COUNTY
NM WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. WE WILL UPDATE
THE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NM.
LATEST PROFILER AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL WINDS...AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL WIND DATA CONTINUE THIS
WEAKNESS THROUGH 16/0900 UTC...AND COMBINED WITH MODEST CAPES...THE
THREAT OF PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. WSR-
88D POSH ALGORITHMS SHOW A HAIL THREAT IN A FEW OF THESE CELLS...BUT
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
3D REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN AT THE
NICKLE AND DIME LEVEL. WE WILL...HOWEVER...MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS UPDATE AS SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN ONE HOUR AMOUNTS NEAR
TWO INCHES.
UPDATED ZONES WIBIS SHORTLY...70.
.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 160103 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SPAWNED AM CONVECTION NOW SHEARING
OUT FOR ENCOUNTERING CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE... AS SEEN IN THE RUC 100H-85H AND 7H-3H DIV Q FIELDS...
PROMOTING CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY PER VISIBLE IMAGERY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM MERTZON AND
CHRISTOVAL... TO PAINT ROCK AND COLEMAN. WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF
NEGATIVE 3 AND NO CAP... SURMISE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WE/LL TAKE A PEEK AT THE LOCAL WARNING
RADARS BEFORE ISSUING NEW PACKAGE. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SMALL POP FOR
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
OTHERWISE... 5H SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS ALSO PROGD TO
SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT ZONE. NGM/AVN Q VECTOR AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ORIENTED NW-SE... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION COULD CLIP THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE MRF PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN... THE DYNAMICS ARE RATHER TAME... SO
AM NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES. BEFOREHAND... ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF MID SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE.
PRELIMS..
ABI 063/086/064/088 2200
SJT 062/088/063/092 1-00
JCT 061/087/062/091 1-00
.SJT...NONE.
17
FXUS64 KHGX 151856 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1032 AM MDT WED SEP 15 1999
DISCUSSION...
RUC DOING BEST JOB OF CAPTURING H5 PVA OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS
KICKING OFF "PUFF"-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CENT AZ. THESE SHOULD
MAINLY STAY NORTH OF FA BUT LIKE SMOKE PLUME THE STORMS ARE VARYING
IN NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT WITH EACH "WAVE" SO CAN'T RULE OUT NRN
PORTIONS OF GRANT..SIERRA..OTERO SEEING BRIEF THUNDERSTORM NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES VCNTY DMN ATTM BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO AMEND
FCST.
.ELP...NONE
02
N
FXUS64 KHGX 151621 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
746 AM CDT WED SEP 15 1999
06Z RUC MODEL SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY
SHOULD KEEP ITS IDENTITY LONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 88D TRENDS FROM KDYS AND KSJT SHOW A SLOW BACK BUILDING DOWN
A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE UPDATED ZONES
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...AND WILL BUMP UP POPS
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY.
20
FXUS64 KFWD 151053 AMD tx
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
900 PM MDT WED SEP 15 1999
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWING NEXT TROUGH COMING IN OVER
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA, WHICH MAY BE STRONGER THAN 12Z MODELS
FORECAST. THE RUC SHOWS A GOOD 300MB VORT MAX OVER EASTERN NEVADA BY
12Z THURSDAY, WHICH IF IT DOESN'T WEAKEN WILL PROVIDE GOOD DYNAMICAL
LIFT TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THURSDAY. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME, SINCE NEW MODELS JUST ABOUT TO COME IN, BUT BELIEVE IF
RUC IS CORRECT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF STATE.
THE SOUTH HAS VERY HIGH CAPE AND LOW LI'S FORECAST FOR THEM THURSDAY
BY BOTH ETA/AVN. NOT SURE WHATS DRIVING THESE HIGH INSTABILITY
VALUES, BUT EVEN IF THESE VALUES ARE HALF AS STRONG THERE SHOULD
BE BETTER THAN A 20% POP. WILL LET MID SHIFT SEE FULL 00Z PACKAGE TO
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
AS FOR TONIGHT, PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SLC 0212 CDC -212 STRUTHWOLF
.SLC...NONE.
FXUS65 KSLC 152157 ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
CURRENT: SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOYD RETREATING OUT OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS IS BEING REPLACED BY A LARGE
AREA OF DRY AIR...AS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FILTERING INTO THE
REGION.
LATEST SURFACE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH DEW POINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S SW AL AND FL
PANHANDLE/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE W BIG BEND AND SW GA AND MID TO UPPER
60S S CENTRAL GA AND E BIG BEND. ALSO 00Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATES VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND PW IS AT 1.21.
ZFP DISC: AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE NGM
INITIALIZED THE BEST...ESPECIALLY ON THE POSITION OF FLOYD. FLOYD
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE REMNANTS OVER
NOVA SCOTIA IN 48-HOURS. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 48 HOURS.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS..TROFINESS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.
MARINE: WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING IN
THE FIRST PERIOD.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH 91/56 88/54 0000
PFN 87/65 86/64 0000
DHN 89/56 85/55 0000
ABY 88/55 84/54 0000
VLD 91/57 87/55 0000
BARRY
FXUS62 KTBW 160526 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
A SHARP DEFINITIVE CLD SHIELD FRM BAD NEWS FLOYD BISECTING OUR CWA
ATTM. FCST IS BASED MSTLY ON THIS EVENT, LESS SO ON THE UPR
TROF/VORT THAT IS XPCTD TO MOV THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG & EVENTUALLY
BECM ABSORB BY THE STORM OVR NY/PA. SATELT SHWG THE EYEWALL JUST
REACHD LAND N OF WILMINGTON. AMS QUITE DRY TO THE W OF OH & WI MOD
SUBSDNC TO SQUASH ANY CU DVLPMNT THE WRN AREAS OF CWA TO SEE PLENTY
OF SS TDY AND INTO SAT. SO AS FLOYD EXITS TO THE NE TNGT THE STBL
CONDS TO BLD INTO THE ERN AREAS. HWEVR, ALL BETS ARE OFF IF FLOYD'S
MOVMNT CHGS. THE LATEST MESOETA & RUC SHWG THE STORM TO ACCELERATE
ON A NE TRACK.
WI WEAK CAA FOLLOWG THE TROF TDY, MOS TEMPS LOOK OK, A LTL COCOLER
THAN ON WED. SIG DIFF IN THE MOS/FAN TEMPS IN ALL PDS, BUT WL LEAN
MORE TWD THE WRMER MOS OR SPLIT THE DIFF. TEMPS BIAS HAS BECM MORE
IN LINE-CLOSER TO THE MOS XCPT FOR ERI.
...OZFCLE AVBL...
.CLE...NONE.
SEM
FXUS61 KILN 160638 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1050 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1027MB HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER CWA.
HIGH AXIS LOCATED FROM WESTERN UP TO NW MISSOURI. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UP MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UP. LATEST 12Z SOUNDINGS AT MPX AND INL...WHICH ARE PROBABLY
MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CWA...SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
THE 800 TO 850 MB LEVEL. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION LEVEL
LOWERING TO NEAR 900MB...WHILE DRYING OUT. 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z AROUND
THE 3-4 DEGREE RANGE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER CWA AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL DECREASE AS WELL. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES.
INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR IN THE EAST WILL FURTHER INHIBIT CLOUDS
THERE. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED.
.MQT...NONE.
JS
FXUS63 KAPX 161450 mi
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 AM MDT THU SEP 16 1999
ALOFT...THE 16/12Z RUC MODEL FITS IN WELL WITH THE 16/00Z ETA RUN.
SITUATION CONFIRMED THERE BY SATELLITE PICTURES. ON THE SURFACE...RUC
INDICATES LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA AT 12Z WHICH SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW. THE ETA SOLUTION APPEARS BETTER FOR THAT TIME.
A FEW MORE CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR APPEARANCE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND
FOR THAT REASON...SIMPLY MENTIONING SUNNY CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT
MISLEADING. WILL HAVE TO DO SOME TWEAKING WITH THE PRESENT SET TO
INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM A MOISTURE SOURCE OVER NEVADA...BUT AT THIS
POINT BELIEVE THAT ALL IT SHOULD DO IS TO CAUSE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE BALLPARK AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THEM. CHB
BIL UB 082/054 082/052 070 52000
LVM .. 081/044 080/... ... 52000
HDN .. 084/051 083/... ... 52000
MLS .. 084/051 084/049 ... 52000
4BQ .. 083/050 083/... ... 52000
BHK .. 077/043 081/... ... 52000
SHR UB 082/046 083/050 072 52000
FXUS65 KMSO 160851 mt
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CDT THU SEP 16 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
12Z RUC HANDLING WARM FRONT LOCATION AND VORT MAX DRIFTING EAST
ACROSS SODAK WHEN COMPARED TO SFC ANALYSIS AND WV LOOP. FROM VIS
LOOP CLD COVER OVR E SD ASSOCIATED WITH ISEN LIFT ON 300K SFC IN
ZONE OF LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM RUC. RUC SHIFTS
THIS ZONE EASTWARD INTO SW MN. SO WHILE RUC DOES INCREASE RH FIELDS
BLO H7 AND SOME ISEN LIFT EXISTS WITH WAA...AIRMASS TO DRY TO
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CLDS TO CHANGE ONGOING FCST. TEMPS PROGGESSING
ON SCHEDULE SO ANY CHANGES WILL BE VERY MINOR.
.FGF...NONE
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 160749 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
WIND STILL THE BIG PROBLEM TODAY. RECENT CALLS TO VARIOUS REGIONS OF
OUR CWA REVEALED THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NC AND RABUN COUNTY GA. WINDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NO RECENT REPORTS OF DOWNED
TREES/POWER LINES. AVL HAS BEEN SUSTAINED OVER 30 KTS THE PAST 2
HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 40S. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 KT WINDS
IN THE LOWER 6KFT AT FFC AND 40 TO 50 KT THROUGH THE SAME DEPTH AT
GSO. 03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC FORECASTS AGREE WELL WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
ACTUALLY MAINTAIN 30-40 KT 850 WINDS OVER AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS FLOYD PULLS AWAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN. ALTHOUGH I EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUTSIDE OF MTNS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING...DON'T THINK WE'LL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30
MPH. WILL DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR NON-MTN COUNTIES AND MENTION 20 TO
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IN THE MTNS...WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY AND MENTION GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY IN LINE. BUT WILL TWEAK A LITTLE BASED ON OBS
AT ISSUANCE.
.GSP...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NC/SC MTNS AND RABUN CO GA.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE REST OF NC/SC/GA.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCAE 161410 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 1999
SIGNIFICANCE IS HARD TO COME BY TODAY. CH3 LOOP SHOWING WK WAVE
IN WRN SD...WITH MID LVL MSTR PLUME AHEAD THRU ERN SD. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DVLPD N OF CWA...IN REGION OF STRNGR LOW TO MID
LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE...AND IN MAX WAA. BETTER LOW LVL MSTR STILL
W AND S OF KLBF. RUC FCST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST FAVORABLE CU UP
IN WRN CWA AS SRLY FLOW BRINGS NWRD TDA. DECENT FETCH OF MID LVL
MSTR ALL THE WAY BACK TO KLBF RAOB...AND RUC HANGS TOUGH IN ERN 2/3
OF CWA THRU DAY. WITH STRONGEST WAA REMAINING N OF AREA...WL RESIST
TEMPTATION TO ADD IN A FEW BUFFERING SPRINKLES ALG KBKX...KMML...KMWM
LN.
RUC SUGGESTS POTENTIAL THAT SCTNRL THRU HON MAY CLIMB A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER THAN CURRENT RANGE...BUT NOT WORTHY OF UPDT ON THAT
ALONE. BUT COUPLED WITH FACT THAT FURTHER MIXING OF PROFILER WNDS
SHOULD KEEP A TENDENCY FOR MORE SOUTH THAN SE WNDS...WL UPDATE TO
TWEEK WNDS MOST AREAS...TMPS A BIT W...AND A SMIDGE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ON CLDS E.
.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN
FXUS63 KUNR 161425 sd
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
900 AM MDT THU SEP 16 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH TODAY
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
12Z RUC HAS 300 CENTER NEAR ILC AT 15Z AND SATELLITE SHOWING AREAS
OF CONVECTION CONTINUING AHEAD OF WAVE. RUC PROGS WAVE INTO SERN
CWFA BY LATE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS NOW NEAR 4 CORNERS BUT
LEAVING CWFA. LAPSE RATES UNSTABLE IN THE NORTH TODAY WHICH COUPLED
WITH EXISTING MOISTURE JUSTIFIES KEEPING POPS IN FIRST PERIOD.
SLC 211 CDC 621 BURCH
.SLC...NONE.
FXUS65 KSLC 160916 ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
FLOYD MAKING A FAST EXIT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO UPR TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW SETS IN ACROSS CWFA FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED. SFC HIGH
...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN WAKE OF FLOYD WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TO THE
REGION.
OTHER THAN THE WIND TONIGHT...IT'S BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND DECOUPLING
OCCURS TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE. WINDS APPEAR TO NOW HAVE
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE BREEZY THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS 15Z RUC AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE. COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEUTRAL. THICKNESS
PROGS SUPPORT LOWS 45 TO 55 AND HIGHS 70 TO 80 THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OF
COURSE...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH DIGS IN THE MISS/OH VLYS...AND COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. WILL INTRODUCE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TUESDAY WITH FRONT/DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWFA.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AVL 46/71/43/70 0000
CLT 52/77/50/75 0000
GSP 53/79/51/77 0000
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCHS 161443 sc