000
FXUS04 KWBC 152106
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
406 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 16/0000 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
DVLPG REX BLOCK OVR WRN NOAM WITH DOWNSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WL
DOMINATE THIS PD. MAIN PCPN AREA WL BE OVR CA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REST OF NATION SEE LITTLE OR NO PCPN. MAIN ISSUES ARE OVR THE WRN
U.S. WHERE SVRL STREAMS OF FLOW INTO THE REGION AND LCL TERRAIN
ARE AFFECTG MDL PERFORMANCE.

...ME...
CONTD LGT SNWS WL FALL UNDER A WEAK/SLOW MOVG MIDLVL SHRTWV TROF.

...SRN APLCHNS...
SUBTLE...BUT IMPORTANT DIFFS IN THE LATEST GUID THRU THIS REGION
AS A FAST MOVG/LOW AMP SHRTWV TROF PUSHES ACRS THE REGION
TNGT/ERLY MON. NAM IS THE WETTEST SOLU...WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE GUID IS SGNFCNTLY DRIER. NONE OF THE SREF/GEFS MEMBERS ARE
SUPPORTG THE HIER NAM PCPN AMTS. SYS IS CUTOFF FM DEEP MSTR...SO
MUCH OF THE PCPN WL BE GENERATED BY WEAK MIDLVL DYNAMICS AND WEAK
8H-7H CVRG. SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT WL OCCUR.

...FL...
LINGERG LGT RNFL WL CONT ACRS THE PENINSULA INTO TNGT AS SBTRPCL
ENERGY RIDES OVR A WEAK LOLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MSTR IS DCRSG THRU
THE PD AND THE LOLVL CVRG WEAKENS.

...SRN TX...
RETURNG MSTR ALNG WITH SOME WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WL SUPPORT
SOME LGT SHWRS LATE TNGT INTO MON.

...NRN ROCKIES ALNG THE U.S./CAN BORDER...
XPCT A SWATH OF VRY LGT PCPN THRU THE REGION UNDER A RIBBON OF
CHANNELED SHRTWV ENERGY.

...WRN U.S....
MAIN AREA OF CONCENTRATED MOD/HVY PCPN WL BE OVR THE HIER ELEVS OF
CA CSTL RNGS/INTERIOR WITH LGTR PCPN SPRDG INTO THE GRT
BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES. MDLS CONT TO SHOW THE MAIN MIDLVL CIRCULATION
CENTER WL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CA CST WITH SVRL POTENT SHRTWVS
XPCTD TO ROTATE ARND THE MEAN CIRCULATION AND INTO THE WRN U.S..
MID/UPR FLOW WL CONT TO BACK WITH INCRSG UPR DIFL/DVRG...ESPCLY
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPR JET STREAK THAT MOVS INTO
SRN CA LATER TNGT/MON. WV SATL PICS CONT TO INDICATE SVRL STREAMS
OF FLOW THAT WL IMPACT THE REGION TNGT...THEN LKLY EVOLVE/MERGE
INTO ONE MAJOR STREAM OF MSTR/LIFT ON MON AS THE SYS PUSHES INTO
SRN CA. MDLS  SHOW 8H/7H FLOW ARND 50 KTS THAT WL SUPPORT STG
UPSLOPE ALNG THE CSTL RNGS AND INLAND HIER ELEVS...WHILE ALSO
SUPPORTG A PROLONGED PD OF MOD/STG MSTR FLUX THAT WL SLOLY DROP
SWD ALNG THE CA CST. PAC MSTR CONTS TO GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION
WITH PWS NR ONE INCH. LATEST SREF MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES ARE GNRLY
2-3 STDS ABV NRML. MDLS ARE HINTG AT PSBLY TAPPG SOME TRPCL MSTR
AS THE NARROW PW AXIS BROADENS LATER TNGT/MON. SREF/GEFS MEMBERS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE THREAT FOR 2-3 INCH RNFL IS A GD BET
ALNG THE CSTL RNGS OF CNTRL/SRN CA WITH LCLZD HIER TOTALS OVR THE
PREFFERED UPSLOPE AREAS. SOMEWHAT LGTR AMTS ARE FCST OVR THE
SIERRA/SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGIONS.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...WEST...

A WELL-DEFINED VORTEX INVOF 40N 130W EARLY SUN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EWD AND INLAND ACRS NRN CA BY EARLY TUE
WHILE CONTINUING TO FEED SHRTWV IMPULSES UNDERNEATH AND INLAND
ACRS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. HPC FOLLOWED
A SOLN CONSISTENT WITH A 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WHICH
AFFORDS A RELATIVELY SLOWER PROGRESSION EWD VS THE 12Z GFS SOLN.
IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT ENHANCED LVLS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AGAIN INTO INTO CA AND ESP THIS THROUGH THE PD
ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH LOCALLY HVY OROGRAPHIC FORCING
EXPECTED GIVEN LARGE SCALE SWLY FLOW AIMED INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z GFS SHOW H85/H7 MOISTURE FLUX
ANOMALIES REACHING 2 TO 3  STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE LOCALLY HVY PCPN RATES. THE HEAVIEST
PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE CNTRL CA COASTAL RANGES
AND THEN INTO THE CNTRL SIERRA-NEVADA...AND THEN OVER THE INTERIOR
BY LATER TUE. SNOW LVLS WHICH WILL ALREADY BE RATHER LOW WILL
ACTUALLY LOWER SOMEWHAT FURTHER AS THE UPR LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE PD...WITH LOCALLY HVY OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED
SNOWFALL NOT ONLY IMPACTING THE SIERRA-NEVADA...BUT ALSO THE THE
WASATCH...MOGOLLON RIM AND WRN CO. MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENERGY THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND SHEARING
OUT BY WED WHICH WILL ALLOWING MUCH OF THE WEST TO THEN BEGIN
DRYING OUT. PLS SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING
THE WINTER WX IMPACT TO THE REGION.

...MS VLY EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS...

THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT SHRTWV ARRIVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID
MS VLY AND A DIGGING NRN/PARTIAL ARCTIC STREAM UPR TROUGH INTO THE
UPR MIDWEST SHOULD YIELD A DEEP SFC CYCLONE AND A BAND OF HVY
RAIN/CONVECTION FROM THE GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND
SRN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HVY SNOW ASSOC WITH THE DEEPENING MID LVL LOW CENTER ACRS
THE LWR GRT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS VLY. THIS
COMBINING SYSTEM WILL SHOVE THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING A WAVE OF MOISTURE RETURN
TO ADVANCE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING LL JET. AS EXPECTED... THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
ENOUGH LARGE SCALE SPREAD FOR CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THIS DAY
3 FORECAST BUT THE GFS HAS AT LEAST FOR THE TIME-BEING BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT THAN THE ECMWF...AND HPC FOR THIS CYCLE WILL LEAN TWD
THE 12Z GFS. HPC QPF THOUGH ASSUMES A SLIGHTLY DRIER VERSION OF
THE GFS ACRS THE OH VLY/GRT LAKES/MIDWEST...WITH MORE MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE STRONGER MOISTURE
FLUX/INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPR JET SUPPORT SHOULD YIELD STRONGER
AND LIKELY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A WETTER SOLN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PD.

ECKERT/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 457666 440668 433675 435683 442688 450691 453700 449709
      448715 453719 462712 478691 475674 457666
 0.01 504931 510890 507874 498866 486873 480889 475916 476970
      480013 482067 484104 481120 475127 472137 472143 462143
      452145 443154 441163 451163 458159 465168 458178 462181
      479183 496177 501161 501143 503113 507072 502001 504931
 0.01 487208 484204 478203 471208 468214 470219 483214 485213
      487208
 0.01 457240 456236 447235 434238 432233 438230 440223 434214
      422198 420192 426191 426177 429171 432166 422155 418148
      409148 400146 392141 382138 385130 395127 407126 414120
      424118 419111 410107 406103 401108 394111 382112 375117
      366131 361142 354143 346146 342152 337150 332145 322144
      312153 308165 308176 309188 314203 313215 315228 325239
      339242 346243 362244 378251 399262 419265 439249 452244
      457240
 0.01 426231 427227 427225 424223 423222 424218 425214 423210
      421207 418209 419213 419216 419217 421221 419224 421227
      423230 426231 426231
 0.01 391062 387066 380068 372063 366064 366070 373087 378090
      383094 388095 392088 395093 400088 408081 417073 414064
      408063 406060 401056 395058 391062
 0.01 373785 370780 367780 362783 356794 349809 348819 346829
      343840 346850 352851 360840 365841 368844 372831 372819
      373808 373794 373785
 0.01 326749 309764 294779 285785 276788 270796 265807 261832
      262844 269850 283848 296831 306808 318796 331793 342784
      344762 334747 326749
 0.01 239967 233972 231979 234991 244999 255004 264013 276026
      288025 291015 288005 288994 287979 278971 261969 252965
      243966 239967
 0.25 417252 418244 414235 414228 416220 414213 408208 398200
      390196 384191 380187 374181 372176 373169 373165 371164
      368165 365168 355173 351175 349171 348168 345164 340163
      331162 326162 322163 319166 318172 321178 327191 329197
      331206 330210 327219 327223 328226 331229 335231 346234
      354234 363237 371239 379243 393251 402254 410255 415254
      417252
 0.25 352196 355198 359199 362196 359194 356192 353191 352193
      352196
 0.25 260990 261987 259985 257982 254979 250977 248976 242977
      239978 237981 239984 241987 246989 249990 252992 257992
      260990
 0.50 409249 409245 408243 405236 412227 414218 412216 408214
      405210 400206 389198 382192 371183 367180 360179 355180
      351183 348181 346175 345167 343165 339164 325164 323165
      323169 326175 330186 333197 336209 338215 339222 343225
      347228 361231 375237 386243 393246 399248 409249
 0.50 374209 374205 370201 367197 364194 361192 356188 353188
      351190 350193 351197 354201 360201 365204 368205 373209
      374209
 1.00 409226 411222 410219 407220 405221 405225 406226 409226
      409226
 1.00 338166 334167 332168 334170 337170 339172 337174 334172
      333174 334179 337193 338201 343209 348221 360226 377234
      387239 395241 399240 399236 393233 389228 386225 383225
      381225 378223 376221 376219 376215 374214 370214 368215
      366214 364212 365211 366211 365208 364205 359203 357203
      354202 350199 349194 349190 347186 345182 346175 344169
      342166 338166
 1.00 403216 400210 394206 386201 382196 377191 371188 367189
      367191 372198 375202 380208 385212 393216 401219 403216
 1.50 382200 378196 374193 374196 378201 385207 395213 386204
      382200
 2.00 364215 362214 360213 359213 358211 356209 355206 354205
      353205 353207 353211 355215 357218 358219 366224 371225
      375225 375223 373221 372218 371217 370218 370219 369220
      368221 366221 365220 365219 365217 364215
 2.00 347194 347191 345190 344190 343192 343195 344200 345202
      347201 349201 349198 348196 347194
 2.00 344175 343171 342172 341176 339178 339179 340181 341183
      341186 340188 342188 343185 344183 344178 344175
 3.00 345197 344194 345193 346194 346196 347197 347198 345198
      345197
 3.00 363216 364217 364219 363220 361218 361216 361215 362215
      363216

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 482673 481669 478666 475664 472661 470662 467661 462661
      459663 453671 449671 444674 439679 437682 437687 439689
      442695 449696 455696 458693 461690 465684 468683 471683
      473681 479677 481676 482673
 0.01 519822 518811 515805 514800 510796 506795 502797 495797
      485788 482785 475785 472786 468790 466796 465804 465818
      463827 459833 457845 455857 454862 455868 459875 467885
      468892 469900 468908 466913 464919 463928 465938 467944
      470950 472958 471965 470968 469974 470978 468982 469991
      473008 479018 481024 483035 485041 486050 489056 494062
      497064 501061 509051 510048 510043 508031 504017 499002
      489974 487952 487945 488937 495909 498902 502895 506891
      510886 515883 519876 522870 521861 520839 520833 519827
      519822
 0.01 485134 483129 475127 468125 462120 458118 458113 458108
      456100 454095 450092 445093 438092 434090 430087 426082
      427080 430076 433075 436076 442073 442068 440065 436053
      433052 433049 430044 429047 427052 425053 421057 418059
      414058 409056 404053 394053 386061 383062 381065 377062
      369058 367058 360060 356065 354071 351086 356088 359085
      364083 367082 368087 368090 365096 363097 359097 353094
      349096 346096 343093 341086 339080 335078 329078 327081
      328086 328094 319101 310107 312111 314114 318116 316126
      317130 319132 323133 327131 331132 332140 335145 343151
      346156 348159 351160 356162 357165 356168 353168 348166
      344161 332160 326158 322157 315155 312155 310158 311165
      312170 315175 318177 328185 331187 333193 338206 342217
      346225 352232 360240 367244 373247 387252 392252 398253
      405255 414256 423257 433253 441246 447244 449242 448238
      448234 449230 453228 457227 461225 461220 453213 447212
      443212 439211 418201 414199 411199 410195 414193 418193
      422195 427194 434194 438201 441206 446208 448203 448195
      454197 458192 462188 465183 465175 463172 459171 458168
      462164 468164 473163 476159 477154 475150 474145 477141
      482138 485134
 0.01 444908 442904 439899 436894 434886 433881 429876 422873
      416873 411876 407885 405896 406903 408907 410915 413921
      408926 405930 405935 405942 408948 411953 416960 421970
      425981 428985 432985 435980 435976 434967 435960 435948
      436935 440926 442921 444912 444908
 0.01 423084 423080 421079 418079 418080 416084 418087 421087
      423084
 0.01 395184 394183 392180 389180 386179 383179 382181 382185
      382186 385186 387190 388190 389190 391190 393187 394185
      395184
 0.01 341956 341950 338945 334940 330931 329927 325925 319920
      314916 306915 302917 300920 294932 288946 283953 280955
      278956 275955 273954 268954 265961 260963 256964 249968
      247972 245980 243989 244996 249003 253008 259011 266014
      272018 276022 281025 286022 288020 289015 284009 282006
      281000 294999 299994 304988 306978 310971 312969 317967
      324970 328970 333969 336965 341956
 0.25 447117 449112 447108 444102 440099 432100 424103 419108
      415111 412110 410108 407106 403109 399110 396112 394115
      390119 388122 401125 407126 411124 418126 421126 426123
      430122 435117 439115 443118 447117
 0.25 443153 441150 440149 439148 438149 437152 437157 438157
      439157 441156 443153
 0.25 420241 419236 417232 415228 416222 416218 414214 410213
      407210 401204 394201 381192 375186 372184 367183 362182
      359184 358188 361192 366197 371202 374206 372209 367210
      361204 353202 346189 345180 344171 339166 330165 328166
      326169 331173 335176 336178 339186 341190 341193 343202
      349215 354222 358227 365232 372237 378241 387244 396246
      403246 413244 417243 420241
 0.25 421162 422158 421154 418151 415153 415156 414157 414158
      415161 417164 420163 421162
 0.25 413072 411068 407066 401067 398069 389067 384074 381074
      379072 376068 372067 372071 375082 378085 384084 386087
      392087 396087 401084 404082 407076 413072
 0.25 382134 384129 383125 377122 365120 358119 354116 346108
      342103 335103 329105 328107 329109 337117 341121 344126
      349129 356128 358128 362132 367136 370140 372144 374145
      378144 382134
 0.50 433108 432108 429107 426107 426108 424111 426113 429113
      431112 432110 433108
 0.50 410226 412223 411218 407217 400208 397205 392203 389201
      384197 371186 365185 362185 363189 365193 372200 378206
      384215 379217 373214 355208 352212 353215 355219 359223
      365229 375235 389240 394240 398238 400234 400227 403223
      406225 410226
 0.50 419119 417115 414114 412114 409112 406111 403114 404117
      405121 408121 411120 414121 417120 419119
 0.50 395079 394076 392074 389073 388076 388079 389082 392083
      395079
 0.50 354120 351118 351117 348115 347113 346111 344109 343108
      340108 338109 340113 343113 346115 347116 348118 351120
      351121 354121 354120
 0.50 343181 344178 343175 343174 342171 341170 338170 340174
      340177 341178 342181 343182 343181
 1.00 386205 386204 383201 383200 381198 378196 378195 376194
      373191 371189 368190 370194 372196 374198 375199 377202
      379203 380204 383204 386205 386205
 1.00 375228 376224 375221 374220 372218 369217 366217 364216
      361214 358214 357216 358217 360220 361221 363222 365224
      368226 371227 373228 375228

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 501856 498843 496836 492829 488824 484807 485798 487791
      486782 483774 476760 471753 466750 462746 457745 450741
      446737 439730 434728 429728 424730 421734 417736 412735
      407734 401734 390738 386743 382749 378756 376760 372761
      367759 363757 355753 350752 345752 335756 332758 326764
      321772 319779 319786 320800 318810 317822 317828 315833
      310842 306853 299875 291894 286902 281911 278921 276927
      276935 278941 281942 285940 287941 285948 285954 288956
      293957 298960 301963 304967 308969 313967 316964 320959
      325956 333954 339954 344950 353941 357938 362937 369935
      371931 373916 376912 382909 388907 392909 394911 395916
      397925 404938 405946 407950 410952 418957 422970 425975
      430977 434976 437973 440968 443961 445955 448953 457965
      460967 460970 461981 463000 463010 466017 467025 470030
      473037 479041 484042 488041 491037 492030 492025 490015
      486006 484998 482988 481976 481972 482966 484962 485953
      485943 486935 488927 489919 491911 495898 499880 500868
      501856
 0.01 479164 481160 480156 478153 473151 472148 470140 472137
      473132 469127 467129 462128 458122 458114 463111 463104
      465096 465088 462084 459081 458077 459073 461069 459064
      444056 442054 440050 438043 436032 434023 432020 427018
      419017 414019 412024 412030 412039 408046 406048 403047
      401049 395053 389057 383060 380067 373072 372075 372080
      375086 381087 383091 387092 393090 398091 405088 412087
      417087 421090 426098 426100 419106 417107 414106 411099
      408098 406098 394107 392109 391114 393121 400124 403127
      409127 412126 416127 420134 422137 424136 427135 432130
      434124 439122 443124 448129 448138 446141 441138 436138
      433143 432147 431154 433161 437168 442173 445180 441181
      438185 437190 439199 445204 446200 445195 446191 449191
      452195 455194 457187 462183 464179 463174 459172 457168
      461165 467167 471166 475164 479164
 0.01 449225 451221 449217 446216 443216 440216 437218 433220
      431219 428218 427219 424221 424222 427224 430224 433224
      433225 435228 438228 440227 441226 444227 447226 449225
 0.01 416224 418219 417216 413213 409208 406204 387194 378187
      374182 372181 368183 365182 362180 351180 340167 336171
      335174 333179 333182 333187 336199 339208 346217 354223
      363230 372235 384241 394245 400246 404245 407242 409234
      416224
 0.01 371209 371207 370205 369203 366201 365200 363199 361197
      359195 358194 355193 353193 350193 352197 355199 357200
      360201 361202 363204 365206 366207 368209 371209 371209
 0.25 453806 453799 452793 447784 444779 442776 437776 432778
      425781 417786 408790 393795 381796 366800 359799 355794
      349791 344791 340795 337800 334807 332815 331820 328827
      316848 311862 308873 297896 294903 295909 305913 311918
      313924 315928 317930 323931 329932 334931 336929 343919
      350908 351901 352893 354887 360881 365878 372876 379875
      384876 390878 396881 400887 403897 407915 411926 414930
      420933 427932 433927 439921 447911 455897 458889 460882
      462876 463869 463864 461859 457852 453844 451840 450833
      450828 451821 452815 453806
 0.25 450113 449109 448105 448101 444098 439096 438096 432098
      430104 426106 423108 423113 426118 429120 432119 435116
      438114 441115 445117 448117 450113
 0.25 417072 417068 418064 415062 412061 410062 407063 404062
      401064 401065 399068 398071 398072 398073 399076 401078
      404077 407077 410077 412076 413076 415075 417072
 0.25 403216 403213 402211 400209 398207 397207 394206 393206
      392210 393212 395214 396215 399217 401217 403216
 0.50 439881 435861 434856 430847 425832 422822 418815 414811
      410810 401807 388806 383807 380810 373816 367818 355817
      351817 344814 341815 338819 336824 324842 317852 314862
      311874 307883 301894 301900 305901 309898 312894 316892
      318894 321898 331915 335910 337905 337899 333897 331896
      333894 338892 339890 346881 354872 363865 368861 374857
      384849 388848 393850 399859 405875 407883 409891 412910
      415918 418921 424918 428912 432908 434903 437897 439891
      439881
 0.50 438108 435107 432108 432112 435109 438108 438108
 0.50 411072 411068 410068 409068 408072 410073 411072
 1.00 425877 424874 423870 422869 419871 419872 417876 420879
      421880 424881 425877
 1.00 352836 350831 346831 341832 339834 336836 335839 333843
      332847 332854 331858 332861 334862 337859 340855 343850
      345847 347844 350840 352836

$$