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FXUS04 KWBC 102039
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
438 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 11/0000 UTC THRU MAR 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPR LAKES/UPR MS VALLEY...
LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING
LOW ACRS THE UPR LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE MOVG FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED FROM NERN WI...ACRS THE U.P. OF MI AND
INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC DURG THE DAY WED. THE WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD PCPN AREA WL CONT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPR LAKES INTO EARLY WED MORNING. PCPN
INTENSITIES MAY BE ENHANCED EARLY DAY 1 BY LOW LEVEL
FLOW..INITIALLY ELY TO NELY...BACKING TO A MORE NLY TO NWLY
DIRECTION BY WED MORNING...OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BULK OF THE
PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM DURG DAY 1 WL BE ACRS ONTARIO AND QB..WITH
THE SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE PCPN SHIELD PRODUCING .25-.50"+ LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS FROM NERN MN...FAR NRN WI AND INTO THE U.P. OF MI.
OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
THE NAM AND GFS CONT TO ADVERTISE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX PUSHING
NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1. INITIALLY THIS
WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEWD MOVG WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
UPR MS VALLEY/UPR LAKES LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THE
EMPHASIS FOR PCPN WL BE ALONG THE EWD MOVG COLD FRONT WHERE BNDRY
LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL DEFINED. MODEL QPFS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF .25-50"+ ACRS THESE
AREAS...WITH DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THESE
AMTS.
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN
CANADA...THE MID TO UPR LEVEL FLOW WL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW FROM
NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. SHRTWV ENERGY IN
THIS SWLY FLOW WL OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SINKING SWD EARLY
THIS PERIOD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS A
LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL TO NERN TX...NEWD INTO NRN LA AND AR.
THERE ARE A LOT DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE QPF DEPICTIONS AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE...BUT GENERAL AGRMNT ON MDT TO HVY
RAINFALL THREAT. THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF
FOR DAY 1...WITH AN AXIS OF .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A WEAK CUTOFF LOW IN THE SW
WILL EJECT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. GOMEX MOISTURE WILL FEED THE
SYSTEM...AND THE EASTERLY BL TRADE WINDS WILL DIRECT THAT MOISTURE
INTO THE CNTRL TX COAST WHERE PRIME INTERACTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT
WILL OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL SQUEEZE A LOT OF THE MOISTURE OUT
INTO THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN CNTRL TX...BUT PLENTY WILL REMAIN FOR
LIGHT TO MDT PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY TO THE TN
VALLEY. FARTHER EAST...ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL FEED THE SAME
BOUNDARY AND FOCUS SHOWERS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY D3.
MODELS SHOWED A WIDE RANGE OF MAXIMA PLACEMENTS ACROSS A LARGE
AREA OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. MODEL DIAG PREFERRED A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND...SO THE QPF IS ADMITTEDLY BROADBRUSHED YET FOCUSED ON THE
LIKELY MAX-MOISTURE-FLUX REGION OF SRN/CNTRL TX WHERE 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE 48 HR PERIOD. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE DROUGHT-COMPACTED SOILS HERE...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A FORMAL RISK. HOWEVER...IF 00Z RUNS INCREASE MSTR...IT
MIGHT BE PRUDENT INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES..
THE SAME BOUNDARY WILL CREATE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE UPR LOW CREEPS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS PROVIDING A BROAD REGION OF LIFT AND ENERGY. SW CO MTNS
WILL SEE LIGHT QPF RESULTING IN SNOW ACCUMS WHILE LOWER ELEVATION
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
SAME MODEL CONCERNS HERE...ALTHOUGH TOPO WAS WEIGHTED MORE THAN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS HERE.
ORAVEC/SOWKO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 12/00Z
0.01 514941 537843 543787 536729 516675 510658 506652 504650
501643 498635 493620 487612 485608 482607 478604 475603
468604 462605 455607 441616 431630 427637 421645 415654
410660 400675 388691 380703 377711 380718 385721 392724
395725 397728 401737 402742 402746 400755 395770 392779
389785 385792 380799 369813 359824 351838 345850 337863
330874 328881 327884 323887 317890 310897 306903 303910
298924 292939 287950 280963 275973 270986 268993 267998
269004 272013 272017 270021 268029 265033 264037 265043
266048 268050 279056 284059 288062 293060 299056 305054
311055 318058 323057 327055 335051 346043 352037 352030
346013 344008 343996 344988 348982 352974 354967 355964
357960 362952 380930 399905 418880 421877 425874 431870
434870 437875 439881 433899 431908 433920 432932 431941
439959 446974 449980 450982 458985 472991 479994 483994
489992 491992 495988 499981 505962 508952 514941
0.01 464102 464095 462089 460085 459076 457064 456060 453056
448056 446060 444064 441072 444079 446080 445084 441088
439092 437096 439108 446117 452116 455113 463106 464102
0.25 534817 538768 513712 499695 483670 479660 474651 468643
462638 458635 452635 448637 444641 432655 428665 426672
424688 424696 422703 416711 415717 412735 411741 411750
413768 412785 412794 409803 407809 402817 394828 385838
375850 367861 360873 354884 347895 342900 334905 329910
325916 318926 312940 308952 302965 290985 287992 286003
285009 287018 289025 292029 298032 302032 307032 312028
316023 323012 326005 329000 332994 335987 340974 347961
354950 360936 366923 369918 373912 384902 396890 404879
412867 419856 428841 435828 440823 446816 465786 469779
473776 479779 483785 483794 482803 479812 476821 471835
468844 467849 466853 464862 463871 461890 460901 461911
465919 469923 481928 486928 490926 496920 501912 503907
509889 516873 520865 524854 528838 531827 534817
0.50 530795 530790 528785 524778 518778 512782 504793 498805
492817 486830 481839 478845 477853 476859 474865 470878
469884 469893 471903 473906 476907 480906 484904 492895
499884 506872 512862 517848 521836 525823 527807 530795
0.50 463670 460667 456666 447667 443669 437672 433678 431684
433695 431700 431709 430713 428716 424722 423728 421732
420737 420749 421761 421772 419785 417798 415806 411814
401833 391850 386856 379864 370869 364877 354893 348902
343907 332922 326927 319934 315942 312951 309959 304967
296980 291990 290999 292008 296018 299021 303021 306020
310017 319002 325995 329988 337970 346955 354938 362919
367912 372904 378897 384890 395876 407859 429825 441808
447799 453789 456778 458767 461743 460736 458729 455720
451716 447716 444714 442710 446704 449700 452695 454686
462678 463670
1.00 448764 447756 443750 441746 437743 433741 430742 429746
431753 434760 435767 434773 432776 428786 426798 425803
426807 429808 436802 442790 445780 448769 448764
1.00 376883 368881 365884 356896 343919 340925 336930 331934
326940 322946 319951 317957 313964 299985 296991 295999
298005 301007 304004 313995 320986 325979 328975 335962
341949 347937 354925 360913 373887 376883
24HR QP VT 13/00Z
0.01 499658 494645 488633 485629 482624 477618 472614 468612
461611 451612 448613 442617 435620 425627 419631 411636
402644 393653 389657 385663 380672 376679 373688 367702
359722 357731 355741 343755 338759 334752 331750 325751
323757 322762 321767 318771 312778 309809 308818 308823
310826 314826 318825 322820 324815 329801 333786 336776
337770 339766 343768 348767 353761 356765 360764 365761
370757 374751 378744 383735 389725 399709 405701 413693
421686 428683 436683 445683 455684 463687 466691 464695
459698 455704 450710 448719 447723 449727 453726 459725
460734 462749 464756 466762 469763 471761 475758 481748
484741 487732 490726 491721 494707 499684 500672 498662
499658
0.01 474854 472845 467840 463838 456840 451839 447840 444845
442851 443855 440858 437859 436862 439864 442864 445865
448862 452856 455853 459859 461868 463873 465875 466883
469887 471887 473886 474881 474875 474863 474854
0.01 452815 451811 450808 448804 445802 445801 442800 439802
438805 439809 440813 443816 445819 447821 448821 450821
452820 452817 452815
0.01 416064 410056 401049 398044 394039 389042 387048 385056
384058 381058 379055 379050 375043 370039 366033 366028
368022 372012 373007 372002 369996 368990 369985 370978
370973 372968 371963 371954 368940 369932 371925 373911
376899 377885 378873 378861 378851 378845 377835 376829
375817 372808 370805 366804 360804 356809 354814 349826
346834 346847 345855 343861 339873 336879 332884 327888
320892 308895 302898 299901 291919 285928 278938 264958
257964 250971 239985 233993 235998 239003 248010 257017
264022 268026 273028 280031 288037 296046 300049 302051
306052 310053 316057 322059 330059 337052 346044 355040
358040 360042 358045 355051 353054 354059 356065 355068
351070 350072 348076 350084 352090 355096 358100 359105
354117 354127 360136 365142 370145 374150 373153 369158
370162 373165 383156 386150 387143 386137 384134 384131
392124 397117 400113 394110 385110 382108 382103 398086
403077 405069 407066 410068 413069 416064
0.01 379196 379192 377189 371183 359177 356171 353165 343164
337164 331162 328162 326164 323171 326176 329178 331182
336185 339183 339180 338177 340175 340177 341183 344183
349176 353178 357178 359187 373193 376195 379196
0.25 443639 440637 435639 430642 425646 420651 418655 418660
420663 425663 429663 434659 439654 440650 443643 443639
0.25 367874 367868 364863 359864 356867 345884 336898 324913
314924 308932 302940 296947 294953 290963 285970 275981
270987 266992 264996 267005 271011 278018 281020 287020
297019 306017 316013 324009 330003 334997 340988 345980
350974 353967 357956 359945 361924 363901 365886 367874
0.25 381079 383076 381073 380072 378070 375071 375072 374075
374079 375081 377083 378083 379083 381079 381079
0.50 358903 357892 356886 354885 344897 337908 329921 322933
318940 313946 308952 306956 302964 297970 286977 283982
279989 277992 276995 278000 277007 283012 290014 297013
305010 314008 319005 324001 330995 335988 349962 352957
354950 356940 356931 358903
1.00 352936 351928 351922 348915 345914 342915 337919 335923
330931 326941 321949 317957 313969 309978 302985 295991
288999 287003 290006 299003 308000 318995 326989 331981
336973 343962 347954 351943 352936
1.50 345934 345925 343923 338925 333937 330943 327948 324954
321963 316973 309986 310990 315989 320986 325980 333970
340959 344945 345934
2.00 332957 331955 330954 328954 328955 326958 326959 325962
324965 322969 321970 320973 322975 325973 326972 327970
328968 329966 330964 331961 331959 332957
24HR QP VT 14/00Z
0.01 505735 502724 497718 492715 489712 485711 483711 479714
476721 474738 473749 471757 466775 463791 462801 463810
464831 466843 467849 470855 478865 487880 492887 497894
502898 508900 512900 515897 516894 516888 514875 511860
508852 504841 502833 499825 498819 498809 500799 502792
503782 505762 505751 506746 505741 505735
0.01 510269 514259 514253 514247 512240 509231 504220 499214
494211 488210 485213 484218 485229 482236 477241 475245
475251 475257 476263 480265 485263 490266 496278 499280
501280 505276 510269
0.01 366731 363724 357722 345720 342721 339726 336733 333735
329734 326737 323744 322751 321756 321763 319769 312778
307790 305796 305801 307805 308811 306817 304822 302828
314850 317852 319857 320862 317876 315889 313894 310898
307897 303894 300892 296894 291897 284909 280918 275945
272957 273961 273964 271967 264975 259984 255987 250989
246989 239987 235987 233990 233993 235998 237002 240004
249008 259012 264016 267020 279022 291021 295021 301024
310032 321036 327038 332042 340051 336063 333070 332076
331085 331093 331102 334108 337115 340119 350131 363132
367133 370136 372144 375144 378136 381132 385128 391124
392121 393116 391113 389109 389103 391095 394090 397089
400086 401079 403075 403069 403064 405063 409062 411059
409053 405018 401995 400990 396984 389972 387968 385965
378964 370965 363968 357971 355971 353967 352962 351955
351939 352921 354909 362883 368870 373857 378846 381834
383819 383803 376768 374757 370747 366731
0.01 373032 374029 372025 372022 371018 371016 369015 368014
367015 365016 362018 360019 359019 358023 359026 360028
362030 363030 365033 366033 369035 372035 373032
0.25 362798 361798 358796 355797 355798 354802 355805 355807
355809 356812 357813 359811 361807 361806 362802 362798
0.25 348764 347759 346754 343751 339750 336752 331758 329765
328771 327778 327783 329788 331791 335792 339786 343780
345773 348767 348764
0.25 364827 363824 362823 361825 360826 360829 359833 359837
358840 358841 359843 361840 363836 363835 364831 364830
364827
0.25 393072 392068 389062 386051 384047 381044 375045 372047
364053 357058 356065 355068 357072 367073 369076 371083
373086 378089 387084 392076 393072
0.25 352872 351867 348865 344866 342868 335881 326893 322899
317906 312919 308932 296960 290972 287979 284987 284995
286001 292005 300007 312011 317011 321010 326005 334994
338988 341980 342972 342961 341951 342942 343934 343923
343916 345906 348890 349882 352875 352872
0.50 338908 338900 335897 329900 326904 321912 317920 314931
311941 309952 304962 295980 290988 290992 291996 297997
303997 306999 310002 317002 320998 325989 333971 335964
335959 337946 338934 338922 338908
1.00 329941 328934 328932 326931 325932 323939 321947 317954
314964 313967 309971 304978 306983 309985 313984 317981
322974 326965 328957 329951 329944 329941
$$
