QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 150648
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 247 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID MAR 15/1200 UTC THRU MAR 16/1200 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 ...NWRN U.S...
 
 COMBINATION OF A SHRTWV SWINGING INLAND BY MID PD AND INTENSE WLY
 LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING VERY HVY PCPN TOTALS TO
 THE PAC NW THIS PD.  MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
 DETAILS..MODELING THE HEAVIEST PCPN TOTALS TO THE ASOCTD FRONTAL
 BAND AS IT SINKS SWD TO A PSN NEAR SWRN OR/NERN CA BY SUNDAY EVNG.
  IN ADDITION..SGFNT POST FRONTAL SHWR ACTVTY IS EXPECTED AS
 ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TAPPING A CONTG
 ONSHORE MSTR FETCH.  MDT PCPN AMTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
 MTNS OF ID/NWRN MT/NWRN WY FAVORED BY STRONG WLY OROGRAPHICS.  
 GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL QPF AGREEMENT..STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
 GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST.
 
 ..WRN GULF REGION/SOUTHEAST U.S...
 
 ONE SHRTWV NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE SERN U.S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
 SECOND SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF REGION BY THIS EVNG. 
 THE NAM AND GFS QPFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HANDLING THE PCPN
 WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV EARLY IN THE PD OVR THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH
 THEY APPEAR THEY WILL BE SHY ON AMTS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
 SHIELD GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  OF MORE CONCERN IS THEIR
 HANDLING OF PCPN WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV THIS EVNG AND TNGT.  AS
 WAS THE CASE YDA..THE GFSS OWN RH FCST AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE
 NCEP MODELS WILL AGAIN BE UNDERDONE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE PCPN
 SHIELD WHERE FVBL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE UNDER A
 REGION OF FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  IN ADDITION..THE
 GEM REGIONAL QPF INDCS HEAVIER PCPN TOTALS FARTHER TO THE NORTH
 AND FOR NOW OPTED FOR A MORE NRN DISPLACEMENT THAN THE NCEP MODELS
 ARE SUGGESTING.  FINALLY..GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING PCPN
 AMTS AND COVERAGE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS
 AND FOR THAT REASON UPPED AMTS SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE.
 
 KORTY
  
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 16/12Z
  0.01 534210 536206 536201 534195 532190 530183 528169 522163 
       518156 511149 506143 501138 498135 495131 491126 488124 
       483121 479121 475119 475113 476105 471098 471092 470090 
       468090 462097 458098 456096 453093 448091 439088 433089 
       430088 426085 423087 423093 424096 427099 426101 422107 
       420111 415112 412117 414122 426133 428135 427140 427148 
       426157 421153 417154 415161 415167 413175 415180 417184 
       420185 423190 426193 429191 432191 433196 438206 433204 
       430201 423196 414196 408198 404201 401201 396198 387195 
       383194 379196 377202 379208 382212 384216 377218 376215 
       373214 370215 367221 369229 373235 379242 386248 402257 
       418262 425262 429264 447262 452262 455261 464261 470261 
       475263 479265 483267 485270 490277 498284 502287 506287 
       510286 513284 516278 517271 518263 517258 517251 516246 
       514236 515223 519215 526214 531213 534210 
  0.01 477687 473676 469669 466669 464671 462675 461682 460692 
       461699 463704 468714 472721 475724 477722 477712 478702 
       477692 477687 
  0.01 449126 449125 446125 443124 440122 437122 434121 432124 
       431126 431128 429131 431132 432132 434131 437132 440129 
       443126 446127 449127 449126 
  0.01 390740 388732 386726 383721 380718 372716 368716 364719 
       361721 356721 353723 349727 344732 339751 333768 327780 
       324787 322795 321804 317811 309825 301835 293851 287866 
       283880 279895 277910 273918 269925 262938 258950 255967 
       256976 259981 266986 271991 276992 282988 292979 304966 
       311954 334936 339932 341928 346920 348913 348903 351895 
       354889 356885 356882 358873 360873 364876 369876 373872 
       377866 378856 378847 380840 386822 397806 403790 401786 
       397785 395785 392782 391764 390754 390749 390740 
  0.25 523192 521184 517178 510169 505162 501158 496144 492138 
       488133 482129 478128 474127 471128 468134 454132 453136 
       453142 448146 445145 439141 436142 434145 433149 434157 
       437164 442168 445174 447179 446183 452193 455188 459186 
       462183 464179 465174 467173 475172 480177 487182 497180 
       502180 506181 510186 519196 522196 523192 
  0.25 511255 510241 508236 506231 500214 496208 492205 487203 
       482203 475205 468208 462207 459207 456210 450213 440212 
       423205 421216 418218 417215 414212 411212 406210 399205 
       393202 389202 386204 388209 394217 399223 394226 388225 
       383226 381229 382233 385239 391245 400250 409254 424257 
       433256 441255 455252 465252 474254 481258 488265 494272 
       499276 503276 505272 506266 507259 511255 
  0.25 490234 488230 487228 486227 483226 480225 477225 476225 
       477226 480230 482233 485235 488235 490234 
  0.25 451113 449109 447106 446105 445101 444100 441099 438099 
       436100 435101 433104 432105 430108 430112 432115 435115 
       438114 440115 443117 446118 448117 449116 451113 
  0.25 376756 375750 373745 368741 363740 355742 350748 346753 
       344763 340779 338792 334803 333808 330813 310834 304844 
       300852 292878 289890 287901 285916 284923 282928 274950 
       270963 269971 272977 278978 283975 291967 319929 334907 
       339896 340890 341883 339873 341866 344860 347856 354846 
       360836 366822 370808 373797 374790 375782 376767 376756 
  0.50 501270 502265 501262 499256 497250 493244 489240 484239 
       476231 469230 468226 472223 478221 485223 489225 492230 
       498244 501247 504249 506248 507244 506240 504234 502228 
       500223 498216 494211 488208 482208 474210 470211 464211 
       461210 459211 453213 443215 435214 426211 424216 421221 
       421225 417227 415224 416220 414216 408214 399208 394205 
       390206 394214 401220 402225 399226 394228 391228 387231 
       388236 390239 397246 403250 410251 420253 430253 439251 
       449248 459247 462246 468247 479252 486258 492265 497270 
       501270 
  0.50 488170 487164 484160 476152 468145 465143 459143 453148 
       447148 442146 438146 437149 437153 438157 443162 449171 
       451173 453171 455167 458161 461159 466162 469165 481169 
       484171 487172 488170 
  0.50 482134 480133 478133 477133 477135 480134 482134 
  0.50 445109 444107 441104 438104 435108 438111 441111 443113 
       445109 
  0.50 368761 367756 365751 359751 352755 350761 348772 347783 
       347791 346798 341809 336817 326825 315833 311838 308842 
       304850 300861 298874 295885 294890 295897 294903 292909 
       284930 281940 278951 276963 276971 279973 286968 292960 
       315924 321912 328904 333894 335889 335881 334874 335866 
       337861 341856 346848 352839 359827 363815 366804 367792 
       368782 368773 368761 
  1.00 496227 496222 496221 493221 492221 493221 495226 495227 
       496227 
  1.00 479239 478238 476237 475237 475239 478240 479239 
  1.00 463225 465221 464217 461216 455216 446218 437218 429219 
       424222 425226 425230 423231 414229 413227 412223 411220 
       407222 407229 402231 399231 395232 393237 395241 399244 
       403247 408248 419249 426250 434248 441243 445241 446239 
       444235 447231 453226 462225 463225 
  1.00 453159 452158 451155 450154 447152 444152 441153 443158 
       444158 446160 449162 452161 453159 
  1.00 357804 354805 354806 355807 357805 357804 
  1.00 355816 355812 355809 352809 352810 351813 350815 349818 
       349819 349823 351823 353821 355817 355816 
  1.00 326863 322861 320861 319863 319869 319887 316895 310900 
       303904 298911 295918 293926 289939 293942 296940 299937 
       302930 306924 313911 322898 324889 325886 324881 326871 
       326863 
  1.50 448225 445221 442221 439221 436221 434221 433221 430222 
       428223 429227 429230 432232 435231 436230 438228 441227 
       444226 448225 
  1.50 433241 431234 429232 427233 425235 420232 414231 410230 
       405234 399234 396237 397239 400242 406244 412245 420247 
       427247 431245 433241 433241 
  2.00 429244 428238 422235 417233 411232 407235 404237 398238 
       403242 409242 415244 420246 424246 429244 
  3.00 423242 422239 421237 419236 416234 414235 413236 410238 
       413239 415241 418242 421242 423242