000
FXUS04 KWBC 141823
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 15/0000 UTC THRU MAR 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NWRN U.S...

A MULTI DAY HEAVY PCPN EVENT UNDERWAY ACRS THE NWRN U.S. AS A
SERIES OF NERN PAC HT FALLS WL ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE NWRN U.S. ON
THE SRN SIDE OF THE MEAN MID TO UPR VORTEX OVR THE NERN PAC.  THIS
WL SUPPORT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW DURG THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  ONSHORE
FLOW WL STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 ASSOC WITH THE LEAD VORT MOVG
TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST.  THIS ONSHORE FLOW WL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
SAT NIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN EARLY SUN AS A MORE POTENT
SFC WAVE PUSHES TOWARD THE WA COAST.  THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX
DAY 1 IS AIMED AT OREGON SWD INTO NWRN CA....WITH AREAL AVG PCPN
AMTS OF 2-3"+ DEPICTED THRU THE OR CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO
NWRN CA.  LIGHTER PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER NWD THRU THE WA
CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN
OR...NERN WA...CNTRL TO NRN ID AND NWRN MT.  FOR QPF DETAILS...THE
DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE HEAVIER ECMWF AND SREF MEAN.


..CNTRL GULF COAST...SERN U.S...MID ATL...

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST DAY 1
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...NEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND SRN MID
ATL.  WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AS SHRTWV ENERGY PUSHES NEWD IN THE BROAD SWLY MID TO
UPR LEVEL FLOW ACRS THESE AREAS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE AXIS OF MAX PCPN
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SRN MID ATL..WITH AREAL AVG
.50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED.  FOR QPF DETAILS THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN
WERE USED.

NRN MAINE...

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM QB INTO NRN MAINE
THIS PERIOD.  ENHANCED UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY WL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR NRN MAINE.  THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE AGREE THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WL BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN .10"...WITH THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING
FROM THIS CONSENSUS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 486685 484679 482675 477672 472669 465668 462676 460684
      460691 461701 464707 465713 465731 468741 471750 473752
      474757 475766 479805 483828 485834 486841 487847 490850
      494855 499857 504859 506853 504841 505831 503821 501807
      501800 498788 496767 493756 492745 490737 491731 490727
      491717 489706 488698 486687 486685
 0.01 531224 534216 536207 536198 535191 532185 530181 524173
      519163 513155 498140 493134 486128 481125 476124 467128
      463127 460123 457112 455106 452102 444097 439096 436094
      430088 427086 425088 425091 428102 427118 430122 434120
      437120 441123 444126 445133 447137 446139 443138 436135
      428139 427143 424149 418154 412162 410169 412176 415180
      439170 445178 439183 436187 437193 440202 438206 434205
      431202 427199 419195 416197 414202 412208 407206 400201
      389198 386195 382193 378195 377201 380207 393220 373213
      368213 364217 363219 365223 368232 370236 375238 385242
      390247 398253 408258 418263 423264 429265 437266 444265
      461262 466261 470262 479266 488274 495282 497284 500287
      502287 506287 510285 514277 517269 519261 520252 519245
      516240 515234 513228 510223 508218 506211 509212 513216
      520224 523227 525229 528229 531224
 0.01 403719 402712 399705 394697 386693 378698 372706 365715
      362723 358732 353739 348746 340762 333780 325797 321803
      315809 309815 303822 299829 296837 293847 291855 288863
      284870 273883 263896 259902 254910 249924 243939 241946
      239954 239959 240965 242975 246983 251989 256994 264997
      267995 270992 274987 276983 280980 289977 296971 301966
      306959 314955 320949 324943 324929 325918 327910 329902
      333894 337887 339883 344881 349886 355896 357899 360902
      366902 371901 377895 379892 380886 381873 381868 383863
      389856 395849 399839 405822 408813 411802 412793 412780
      411768 409754 406736 403719
 0.25 526198 523191 520184 513171 494147 491140 487134 481132
      476131 474133 474137 476139 483142 484146 482151 476150
      467143 463141 459142 456147 452150 448149 442145 439144
      436144 434147 432151 433154 436161 446170 449178 447186
      447191 450194 453193 462183 466177 468175 471174 494185
      502186 507189 519199 522201 525199 526198
 0.25 512261 513252 512248 508236 504226 501214 496205 491203
      485203 476206 468208 462206 459208 457211 452213 444213
      437213 432209 425204 421204 421207 421214 419221 414215
      406211 399206 392202 389202 387204 388209 393214 402219
      404221 405224 404228 400228 394227 387223 384224 382227
      382231 385235 392241 408252 414255 419257 430258 438258
      446257 454255 464254 474256 485260 489263 493267 499275
      502277 504276 505266 512261
 0.25 444109 444108 441106 438107 438108 438109 441110 444111
      444109
 0.25 389741 386731 382727 379725 375725 368731 360743 354757
      349768 344781 339792 332805 315825 303847 292868 281893
      277903 272915 263938 262944 262952 264960 268963 276962
      283961 289958 294954 299942 305930 314906 319894 325883
      333873 343863 354856 362853 370849 377836 379830 381824
      384809 385794 385778 388761 390751 389741
 0.50 509255 510249 508244 504234 500225 498213 495209 490208
      480208 473210 470211 464210 460211 457213 455214 450214
      442215 437214 432212 426209 422221 421226 419229 417228
      414223 413219 409216 405214 402212 397207 391205 391207
      393211 397214 404217 407221 407227 404231 402231 397232
      394234 395239 398242 406247 413251 423254 430255 437254
      446253 461249 471249 479252 484251 485244 481236 476226
      476224 478223 483224 492229 496238 501245 506254 509255
 0.50 486165 485160 479157 475154 472150 468146 465144 462146
      461152 462157 467161 469164 475166 478168 482169 486165
 0.50 452172 453167 453163 454159 453156 452155 450153 447151
      445150 444149 442147 439146 436148 436149 435152 435154
      436156 438159 440161 443163 446166 448170 449171 451173
      452172
 0.50 380750 380745 379741 375737 369739 366743 362748 359754
      354765 348786 344797 339805 311840 301857 291877 284895
      280905 278916 275925 274932 274937 278940 282942 284944
      286944 290942 295933 300923 302914 308902 312894 318886
      332868 338861 347853 356848 363843 367838 368833 369827
      368813 370801 372789 377769 379759 380750
 1.00 478243 479239 479237 477234 476233 474233 473235 471236
      472239 474242 475242 478243 478243
 1.00 464238 462231 461228 464225 469219 465214 461214 455216
      448217 440217 434217 430217 426219 424221 424223 428231
      425234 422234 414232 410233 407235 402239 409245 414248
      423250 428251 436250 449246 456244 461242 464238
 1.00 469153 468149 467153 467154 469153
 1.00 445154 444153 441153 440153 441154 444155 445154
 1.00 368761 364759 360766 357784 353800 350809 348816 343822
      337828 332833 324840 311851 305856 302863 297876 293884
      290891 288898 287902 288907 291907 294905 299899 308888
      314882 320875 328864 340851 346847 352841 356834 356830
      354828 352822 350817 354810 360794 365778 368769 368764
      368761
 1.50 464221 464218 461217 455217 452218 446218 440218 437219
      431220 427221 427225 429228 435232 437234 439231 444228
      447227 450226 457225 461224 464221
 1.50 447241 442239 437234 434234 431236 428236 422235 416234
      412235 409238 410242 415245 420247 426248 430248 435246
      438245 442244 447241
 1.50 351832 350829 349829 347830 346831 345835 347838 349838
      349837 350834 351832
 1.50 322865 319862 317863 310861 306865 302871 300876 297882
      297888 300888 306883 312879 316874 319869 322865
 2.00 462220 460219 457218 456219 457221 460222 462220
 2.00 452222 451221 448220 445220 442219 439221 436221 435221
      436225 438226 441227 444226 447226 448225 451222 452222
 2.00 432244 431240 430240 428238 425237 422236 419235 416235
      415235 413238 412238 413239 415242 418244 421245 423246
      426246 429246 432244
 3.00 427243 424240 422239 419239 417240 418241 421243 424243
      427243

$$