AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005 ...DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS... ANOTHER BLUE RIBBON DAY FROM MOTHER NATURE AFTER EARLY MORNING CHILL. FAST UPPER FLOW NEAR CANADIAN BORDER WITH NICE SPINNER OVER NE NM ON VAPOR PICS. WITH TIME THE SPINNER OPENS UP INTO A VORT LOBE WHICH COMES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS SW AS TROF COMES IN FROM PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. GFS/GEM FOLLOWED ON THE LEAD VORT LOBE. NAM FOR SOME REASON HANGS IT UP OVER AREA WHICH MAKES NO SENSE SINCE RIDGE IS BUILDING AND HEIGHTS RISING SO THE LOBE SHOULD DAMPEN WITH TIME, OPPOSITE OF THE NAM. OF COURSE THE NAM MIS ANALYZED IT AS USUAL SO THIS MAY BE THE SOURCE OF THE POOR FORECAST. WILL INTRO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY OVER AREA WITH THE LOBE AND INSTABILITY SHOWN ON ALL MODELS. THIS SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE ABOVE NORMAL SPELL OF TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS. FOR TOMORROW 850 TEMPS WARM TO 18C BY EVE BUT WITH OCT 1 SUN DO NOT FEEL WILL WARM ALL THE WAY UP TO 850 BUT WILL BUMP UP GOING FORECAST. SAME FOR MON/TUE. SUNDAY MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN. BUMPED UP SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH S FLOW ALL NIGHT AND INCREASING DPS. NEXT FRONT COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN AND AN END TO THE WARM SPELL. BUT IN MEAN TIME NEXT 4 DAYS NICE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT. WEEELLLL! AFTER FORECASTING FOR 32 YEARS IN THE NWS, IT IS TIME TO RETIRE. I HAVE DRAWN MY LAST KINKY ISOBAR. I WAS NEVER EVER BORN TO GRID. IT HAS BEEN SIMPLY WONDERFUL. I HAVE MET AND WORKED WITH A LOT OF GREAT PEOPLE BOTH IN THE NWS AND FAA. THEY HAVE GIVEN ME A LOT OF FOND MEMORIES. BUT FINALLY NO MORE SHIFT WORK. NO MORE LOOKING AT ALL THE MODELS AND SOMETIMES THINKING THE ETA(NAM) IS ON DRUGS, THE GOOFIS IS TORTURED AND OUT TO LUNCH, AND THE NOGOODMODEL IS REALLY THE BEST ONE OF THE DAY. NO MORE THINKING THE FORECAST IS SO DIFFICULT I NEED TO WISH MYSELF LOTS OF RUC IN GETTING THE FORECAST RIGHT. I CHOSE THIS TIME BEFORE THE TORMENTED CHICAGO WEATHER TURNS ITS USUAL DISMALIOUS ABSOLUTES IN ABOUT A MONTH. I CAN STILL LEAVE FOR HONOROUS CAUSES. AND BEFORE JACQUES LE PLUME COMES DOWN THE LAKE WITH HIS HEAVY SNOW BANDS. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE REALIZE HOW LUCKY THEY ARE TO HAVE SUCH DEDICATED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WORKING FOR THE NWS 24/7. WITH DEADLY HURRICANES APPROACHING THE COAST, NWS EMPLOYEES WERE STILL COMING INTO WORK ALONG THE COAST TO FULFILL THEIR MISSION OF PROTECTING LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THIS COUNTRY. WHILE WINDS WERE HITTING 145 MPH OUTSIDE THE BUILDING, THE FEDERAL NWS EMPLOYEES WERE STILL AT THEIR POSTS DOING THEIR JOB. AND MOPING UP THE FLOOR TO PREVENT THE LEAKING RAIN WATER FROM GETTING INTO THE EQUIPMENT. I LEAVE MY FELLOW "DOCTORS" WITH MY FAMOUS WORDS OF INSPIRATION "WHEN IN DOUBT, LEAVE IT OUT" AND "IF IT DON'T SPIN, DON'T TURN IT IN." THE "FISH" IS PREPARING TO LEAVE THE BUILDING FOR THE LAST TIME. GOD BLESS BBQ. AF && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS... QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH EARLIER GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AT ISSUANCE TIME. WILL BEGIN 00Z TAF'S WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...QUICKLY SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 01-02Z. ONLY FEW-SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLE FROM CUT-OFF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AFTER THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES FROM NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOMEWHAT WEAKER TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYERS NOT EXCESSIVELY DEEP SO WILL CARRY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FOR TOMORROW...AND AM NOT EXPECTING GUST MAGNITUDES THAT WERE OBSERVED TODAY. NDM && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI....GALE WARNING FOR NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE POPS, PLACEMENT OF POPS AND SECONDARILY, MAX TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND THE 19Z SURFACE CHART, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, BASICALLY EAST OF ASHLAND. CONVERGENCE IS EDGING NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA, AND COULD GET TO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS BY 00Z. THEN, IF THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND THE UPPER WAVE SPITS A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, THEN THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO, THIS SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD EXIST IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY, AS THE UPPER WAVE IS NOT GOING TO EXIT THE AREA VERY FAST. THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS MISSING AND HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED ONLY AMA WITH -60M. SO, 20 POPS FOR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 6 COUNTIES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THE ETA, NGM, RUC, AND GFS ALL POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF DDC'S CWA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS, THE LOW 20 POPS SEEM WARRANTED. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TONIGHT, AND WARMED EACH PERIOD UP A FEW DEGREES. PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST ON SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM WEST TO NOT SO WARM EAST GRADIENT. THEN ON SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASED DEW POINTS WILL HAVE MINS UP IN THE MID 50S SW TO THE MID 60S SE. THESE RELATIVELY HIGH MINS WILL WARM TO AFTERNOON READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S S AND SW TO THE LOWER 90S C AND N. DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH NO SURFACE OR UPPER FEATURES IN THE AREA. DAYS 3-7... THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD SURGE TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THAT TIME, WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DRIER AIR IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE REMNANTS OF THE EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SW JET AND BRING IN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD HOLD DOWN MAXES A FEW DEGREES. THE MODELS SHOW SHALLOW COLD AIR NOSING DOWN THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIP OFF TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY, BUT COOL AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAXES FAIRLY COOL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 56 84 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 53 87 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 52 87 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 55 88 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 56 82 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 P28 59 84 66 87 / 20 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 12/24 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 337 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING 5H RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC POISED TO DIG INTO THE PAC NW COAST. AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THIS WILL IN TURN HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME MID CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN ZONES WHERE GRAD WIND LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST. STILL LOOK FOR MINS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL (BEST SPOT FOR DECOUPLING) TO UPR 50S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE LOCATIONS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE AS BROAD 5H RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA (MODELS SHOW HGTS OF 582-584 DM) IN RESPONSE TO TROF DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. WHILE IT'S TRUE THAT SLACKENING SW GRAD WIND COULD RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE FORMATION AND SOME COOLING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE SAT AFT. 8H TEMPS OF AROUND 16C MIXING TO SFC UNDER THIN CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S BOTH DAYS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. ONSHORE BREEZES ALONG LAKE MI COUNTIES E AND SE AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL HAVE RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS THERE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED BY MODELS TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS NOTED BY GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET AND ECMWF. DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN CHCS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT GFS STILL ADVERTISES DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS FOR TSRA GOING SUN NIGHT. WITH THE SHRTWV EXITING THE AREA MOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM 8H TEMPS TO 17-18C...LOOK FOR AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AGAIN MON INTO TUE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND READINGS. EXTENDED...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. NEW GFS LOOKS TO BE EVEN QUICKER THAN 00Z RUN BRINGING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN LAKES ON TUE NIGHT WITH CAA BEHIND IT INTO WED. 12Z ECMWF ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH FRONT ALTHOUGH NOT AS QUICK AS GFS. 06Z DGEX AND 12Z UKMET A BIT SLOWER BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FCST AREA ON WED MORNING WITH BETTER CAA IN ITS WAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. CANADIAN EVEN SLOWER STILL WITH FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH FCST AREA WED EVENING WITH CAA WED NIGHT INTO THU. STILL LEANING TOWARD SLOWER SOLNS GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE SO FOR NOW DIDN'T MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. STILL BROUGHT LOW CHC OF TSRA INTO WRN COUNTIES LATE TUE NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD RAIN CHCS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAKLY CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AS ADVERTISED BY CANADIAN AND UKMET INTO THU ALONG WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6C SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA AND SOME POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SUGGESTED BY FALLING 1000-850 MB THCKNS AND GFS MODEL SNDGS. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE BUILD IN HIGH PRES FROM WEST BY FRI WITH A DRIER ALBEIT COOLER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN 50S. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 856 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN... MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROSEBUD...CUSTER... AND FALLON COUNTIES. RUC HANDLES THIS FAIRLY WELL...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS ANALYZED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH WHILE GFS IS IN BETWEEN. RUC INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR ITS PRESENT POSITION BUT PRESSURE RISES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES INDICATE IT MAY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ALZADA LINE. TWEAKED WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EAST TO ARRIVE AT THIS POSITIONING...THUS MAY SEE WINDS BRIEFLY GO NORTHEAST IN BILLINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED WINDS TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN LIVINGSTON AND NYE. NYE HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS TO 51 AND 54 MPH RESPECTIVELY THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. FORECAST PRES GRADIENT INDICATES NYE WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AGAIN TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE BEARTOOTH AS WINDS LAST NIGHT KEPT TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR SITUATION ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER TO ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN ZONES. MODELS ALL AGREE ON STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DIVIDE TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND PUSH COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW CHALLENGE IS WHERE THE LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH RUC NEAR GLASGOW...THE GFS NORTH OF CUT BANK...AND THE NAM NEAR CALGARY. THE RUC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHTER WITH CENTER OF LOW CLOSE TO THE AREA...WHILE NAM AND GFS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS. WILL KEEP RFW GOING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER POSITION OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS SO SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON NEXT SHIFT WHEN NEW GFS IS AVAILABLE. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 100-120KT JET WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO NORTHERN WYOMING DURING THIS TIME PROVIDING A GREAT DEAL OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE TO FORM A STRONG SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO SETTLE SOUTH...PROVIDING FOR A VERY COOL UPSLOPE FLOW. 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -6C TO -7C BY TUESDAY WITH THICKNESS LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 540DAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM MUSSELSHELL/ROSEBUD COUNTIES TO FALLON COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES FAVORING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME SUN ANGLE IS STILL SOMEWHAT STRONG...AS A RESULT OF STRONG LIFT AND SYSTEM BEING QUITE DYNAMIC...SYSTEM MAY CREATE ITS OWN POCKET OF COLD AIR. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AS WELL AS...SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT. DUE TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW...SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY AND THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT WITH A FAVORED NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS. TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AS VORT MAXES MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POP CHANCES BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN COMING SHIFTS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AS 850MB READINGS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT ON THE POSSIBILITY TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT. CURRENT TREND SHOWS A FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES.OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHAMBERS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 057/087 051/066 041/053 037/052 035/063 039/065 040/063 00/B 22/R 36/R 64/W 20/B 00/B 00/B LVM 056/080 041/064 035/052 033/052 030/063 033/064 035/062 00/N 32/R 36/R 64/W 20/B 00/B 00/B HDN 054/087 045/073 047/060 040/056 037/067 039/069 043/067 00/B 02/R 26/R 64/W 20/B 00/B 00/B MLS 053/092 052/076 044/057 040/055 035/063 041/065 043/063 00/B 00/B 23/R 44/W 30/B 00/B 00/B 4BQ 055/091 046/077 041/063 040/056 035/064 036/066 038/065 00/U 00/B 26/R 64/W 30/B 00/B 00/B BHK 051/090 044/077 039/060 036/055 031/063 034/065 036/063 00/U 00/B 22/R 44/W 30/B 00/B 00/B SHR 051/089 041/074 041/059 037/053 033/060 035/065 041/061 00/U 00/B 26/R 64/W 30/B 00/B 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63-66>68. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED NEAR THE 925MB FRONT. NO DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING NORTHEAST...THUS EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL TODAY (PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS). SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY DROPPING IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME...AND ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE AT LBT AND FAY. WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE DETAILS... OTHERWISE THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN RAPIDLY AT LOW LEVELS ON N TO NE WINDS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 2 AND 3 KFT MOST AREAS AS OF 13Z. VFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO FLO AND MYR. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 14 OR 15 Z. TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. && .MARINE... THE NE SURGE EVENT IS UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN ENVISIONED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE NC WATERS BUT ARE SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM/RUC TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT LATER TODAY. ACROSS THE SC WATERS SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 15-20 KT AND ARE ALSO SHOWN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THESE WINDS JUST DO NOT HAVE THE MOMENTUM TO BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE...SO THE ADVISORY IS BEING DROPPED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFAFF AVIATION...JAN MARINE...TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 950 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...A NICE FALL MORNING NOTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS DON'T SHOW MUCH FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY A FEW AREAS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND AN ISOLATED PATCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE TOO DRY AGAIN TONIGHT ...SO ANY FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE VERY SPOTTY AND ONLY IN VALLEYS. 12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS LOOKED QUITE COOL...MAINLY SUPPORTING UPPER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MID/UPR 70S LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 850 MB LEVEL...AND MRX VAD WIND PROFILE ALREADY SHOW SW WINDS FROM 5000 FEET AND ABOVE. THUS ...MAY LEAVE MAX TEMP FORECAST AS IS. WILL NEED TO UPDATE THE ZFPMRX AND REMOVE FOG WORDING...ALSO WILL CHECK TEMPS/DEW PTS/WINDS TO SEE IF GRIDS/WEB PRODUCTS NEED FRESHENING. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... TEMPS STAYING MILD TONIGHT AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. MAJOR SYSTEM ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER MONTANA IN RESPONSE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A K4BQ-3HT AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT TODAY WITH AN EXTREMELY WARM DAY ON TOP FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IS A POINT OF CONJECTURE BETWEEN THE MODELS. NEWEST NAM IS CATCHING UP TO RUC INDICATED TRENDS WHICH HAD THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FURTHER INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. PRIMARY FORECAST FACTORS AS A RESULT IS LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THAT WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY LINKAGE RATHER THAN GRADIENTS AND 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS ARE SHOWING EVIDENCE OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT IN BILLINGS AND REACH THE EASTERN BORDER BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR 90 FOR THE PLAINS AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING ESPECIALLY SINCE RECOVERIES TONIGHT WERE FAIRLY POOR AND ALSO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY SHOULD BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN ZONES BUT ENOUGH MOISTENING OCCURS SUNDAY SO THAT THE ON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD SEE SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. BORSUM .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... ...SUMMARY... VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD MOVE OUT FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ...MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE BIG TROUGH FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. GFS A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH THE CORE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAN THE NAM (AND COLDER). ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER EVOLUTION AND WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. DETAILS OF THE SHORTWAVES/JET EVOLUTION/SURFACE LOW FORMATION OVER WYOMING ARE STILL A BUT MUDDY...BUT VERY CONFIDENT ON GENERALLY VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN/DRAWBACK IS POSSIBILITY OF DRY SLOTTING IN SOUTHERN ZONES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY PER NAM MODEL. BUT FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH THE WETTER GFS MODEL. DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME CLEARER IN A DAY OR TWO. DROPPED BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALIGN MORE WITH NEW COLDER MEX GUIDANCE AND COLDER 850-MB TEMPERATURES. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EAST...AS GFS HAS 850-MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS -4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...EXPANDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO MORE OF THE PLAINS AND FURTHER NORTH. RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE PLAINS LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TUESDAY ALONG WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH DAKOTA. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO GET RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ON ACCUMULATING SNOW YET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD CERTAINLY FALL FROM THE BEARTOOTHS OVER TO THE BIGHORNS. MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD ENHANCE SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS TUESDAY. ...WEDNESDAY ONWARD... STILL NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. KEPT FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW WITH SOME MOUNTAIN PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. FOISY && .AVIATION... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT AND IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. FOISY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 089 051/067 041/053 034/046 030/058 039/065 041/066 0/N 22/R 36/R 66/R 20/B 00/B 00/B LVM 083 041/065 035/051 031/051 027/060 033/064 036/065 0/N 32/R 36/R 65/R 20/B 00/B 00/B HDN 089 045/071 047/060 036/048 030/062 039/069 044/070 0/N 02/R 26/R 66/R 20/B 00/B 00/B MLS 092 052/070 044/055 034/044 030/055 041/065 044/067 0/B 00/B 26/R 65/R 30/B 00/B 00/B 4BQ 093 046/076 041/062 035/046 031/061 036/066 039/070 0/U 00/B 26/R 64/R 30/B 00/B 00/B BHK 091 044/069 039/057 033/044 029/055 034/065 037/069 0/U 00/B 23/R 64/O 30/B 00/B 00/B SHR 091 041/074 041/059 035/046 031/058 035/067 042/064 0/N 00/B 26/R 66/R 30/B 00/B 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63-66>68. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER OUR CWFA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD WEDGE. LOCAL SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW BRISK MEAN ELY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND BRUSHING CAPE SAN BLAS IN THE PROCESS. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR JAX...WHERE LOW CLOUDINESS IS ALSO NOTED. RUC 925MB COND PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELDS ARE RESOLVING LOW CLOUD AREA FAIRLY WELL... AND IT PROGS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LAST OVERCAST AREAS BEING SW AND S-CENTRAL GA. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... WILL FRESHEN THE ZONES TO MENTION MORNING LOW CLOUDS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE POPS. MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OVER OUR NRN ZONES. && .MARINE... BUOY 42039 IS REPORTING WINDS OF 18 KT...WHICH IS SCEC LEVEL. HOWEVER THIS SURGE IS VERY RECENT AS SEAS ARE STILL ONLY 2 FT...AND WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO DROP OFF TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AREAWIDE SHORTLY AS THE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE COMES TO AN END. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED. && .AVIATION... LOW CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEDGE WL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MRNG FROM VLD-DHN NWD TO ABY. PRIOR TO THIS IFR/MVFR CIGS WL OCCUR WITH VFR VSBYS. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN STILL XPCTD...BUT DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF TSRA WL BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY TEMPO GROUPS. XPCT A REPEAT OF LOW CIGS SUN MRNG. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGES PLANNED. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 947 AM SAT OCT 1 2005 .DISCUSSION... GFS AND NAM BOTH PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH JUST A HINT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS HELPING IN THE FORMATION OF A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE TN VALLEY AND KENTUCKY. NAM...GFS...AND RUC ALL PICK UP ON THE CU FIELD WITH HIGH RH VALUES AT ABOUT THE 850H LEVEL AND KEEP THE CU FIELD OVER OUR CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND FROM SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE BLUE GRASS. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF ANY CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CU FIELD SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONG EARLY OCTOBER SUN. SO WILL NOT DECREASE TEMPS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE BREAKS FILL CONSIDERABLY MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS AS WELL AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE SOME VIRGA BECAUSE THE CU DOES HAVE SOME DEPTH. BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY. OTHERWISE...UPDATE WILL ALSO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. UPDATED ZONES...GRID PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 220 AM SAT OCT 1 2005 SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF OF THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY TREKKING THROUGH TX/OK WILL LIFT NE...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN PRETTY TIGHT WITHIN THE VORT...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CIRRUS FROM THIS FEATURE AS IT DAMPENS WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG. LATEST MOS HAS JUMPED ON WARMER TEMPS AS H8 TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A BIT EACH DAY. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY AHEAD OF THE CURVE ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE BASED ON THE LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY INTACT AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS IS PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. 341 PM FRI SEP 30 2005 SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE MID 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES TO MAKE A NEAR PERFECT AUTUMN DAY. SFC FEATURES SHOW A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THE WEEKEND SHORT WAVE AND MOVE IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAKENING AS IT RIDES UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE A GLANCING BLOW TO OUR AREA. BUT AT PRESENT SEEMS TO PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. FCST WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE IT WAS PRETTY MUCH A TEMP FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FROM LAST SHIFT LOOKED GOOD...AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR CCF PURPOSES. ONLY WENT MID 40S FOR VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO OF OUR COLDEST SPOTS MADE IT DOWN TO AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY TOMORROW MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS THAT MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THE RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS MOST OF IT APPEARS TO HANG UP ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT MAKES IT ACROSS THE DIVIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONSEQUENTLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SLOWER WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF MORNING LOWS. HOWEVER...EXPECT MY DEW POINTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSUE OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY TAKE DEW POINTS EVEN LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. WITH THIS IN MIND...MORNING LOWS FOR MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS...AND CLOSE TO THE HIGHER END FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR EASTERN KY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LIFT OVER THE RIDGE AT MIDWEEK...FLATTENING IT AND PUSHING IT EAST. THIS ALLOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN REALITY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND IN THE END IT WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE FOR A SHORTER PERIOD. AS THE EVENT APPROACHES... HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WILL INCREASE. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE POP TIME WINDOW TO BE SHORTENED AND THE POP VALUE TO BE RAISED DURING THAT SMALLER WINDOW. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES. UPDATED ZONES...PRODUCTS OUT SOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RAY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 925 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL SET TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STILL A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES TODAY WITH THE GFS STILL THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST SOLUTION AHEAD OF SLOWER MOVING FRONT. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOOKS LIKE GFS MAY NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON SPLITTING SURFACE TROUGH. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AT THE MOMENT...WHICH ALSO BRINGS FRONT THROUGH FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT HAS THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO DROP HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST...AND MAY NEED TO UPDATE AGAIN LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL ALLOW RED FLAG TO CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT LOOKING MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL GET UPDATE OUT SHORTLY AND UPDATE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. JAZ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERAL PATTERN BEGINNING THE FORECAST SATURDAY STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW FORMS EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER MONTANA. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR POSITION OF THE APPROACHING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ETA HAS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS A LITTLE SLOWER. HOWEVER NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BUT WENT WITH GFS. CAN EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT HOW WARM AND HOW DRY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN GRIDS TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL SEE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND MARGINAL WINDS TO SUPPORT A RED FLAG CONDITION HAVE UPGRADED THE RED FLAG WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TODAY. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL BE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL GENERATING AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. A DRY SLOT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT DURING THE EVENING, BUT AS IT MOVES NORTH SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA. GFS IS KEEPING US WET WHILE ETA KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THE GRIDS UNCHANGED AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO DECIDE. MADE FEW FORECAST CHANGES TO EXISTING GRIDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCT && .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY). THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE ON BOARD WITH LOWER THICKNESSES/ TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD COMBINED WITH HIGHER POPS. THIS COMBINATION COULD BRING THE FIRST SIGHT OF SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CWA. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND BECOMES CLOSED-OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE AREA. IDEAL DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING PLACE WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -5 ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY AS OUTLINED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IMPRESSIVE OVERRUNNING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH SYSTEM AS IT CRANKS UP OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE OVERRUNNING LOOKS TO HANG OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE JET PUNCHES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HEADS TOWARD THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...TUESDAY LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY AND COLD FOR THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPS QUITE A BIT HERE (AND COULD BE LOWERED FURTHER BY LATER SHIFTS IF MODEL DATA BECOMES MORE CONCRETE WITH THIS SOLUTION). CAN SEE TEMPS NOT RISING ABOVE 40 IN MANY PLACES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS TFX...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR THIS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER AS THIS IS THE FIRST RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION (AND NOT ALL THE MODELS I.E. THE CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION YET). TUESDAY NIGHT...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AT LEAST INTO THE 20S...COULD SEE READINGS IN THE TEENS BUT ALREADY HAD TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED. FAST ZONAL THEN LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PUSHING OUT THE COLD/WET SYSTEM. MILD/DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW LOOK TO TAKE PLACE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HINT A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING CONFIDENCE ON SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE KEEP IT DRY. TFJ && .AVIATION...VFR. HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIFT INTO CANADA THIS MORNING. TFJ && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AREA 122 WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. WITH APPROACHING FRONT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH WILL PUT THEM HIGH ENOUGH TO SET THE WARNING. THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA 121 SO HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE WARNING AREA. SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 121 AND 122 FROM 11 AM THRU 8PM TODAY. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .UPDATE...15Z OBS SHOW WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...STILL EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS N ROCKIES. 12Z NAM/RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT LOCATING FRONT ACROSS N FA AT PEAK HEATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH CLOUDS AND FRONT A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TEMPS ACROSS N FA MAY HAVE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING 80F...ALTHOUGH WILL BE CLOSE. STILL EXPECT 85F-90F ACROSS S FA...CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH 850MB WINDS TO AROUND 25KT-30KT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 850MB...AND WILL ADJUST WINDS UP A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR UPDATE FOR CLOUDS/TEMPS/WIND TO BE SENT BY 1100AM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 405 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE EXTENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROFILER WINDS AND LATEST RUC WOULD HAVE UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN RUSSELL AND SALINA AT 19Z. SURFACE PATTERN HAS TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF CWA. IN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE SINCE THE NOON HOUR AND HAS SPREAD NORTH OF I70 JUST AFTER 3 PM. MORE FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES GENERALLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE NORTH CENTRAL CWA MAINLY CLOUD. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH...WHILE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HOLDING READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND 60. MODELS SHOWING MAIN LIFT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL WORDING ON PRECIP IN THESE AREAS. STILL HANGING ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH UPPER LOW IN VICINITY. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BEGIN DROPPING OFF...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE THROUGH THE MID MORNING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES HOLDING STEADY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ON HOW LONG LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER. SOME FOG POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT GET THE RAIN AND WINDS STAY DOWN. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO EXIT MID TO LATE MORNING FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON HOW WINDY AND WARM TO MAKE IT. ALL MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. H850 MB IN SIMILAR RANGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST TO UPPER 80S WEST WITH MORE SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING THE LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEEPEN. AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE LLJ SHOULD INCREASE OVER 40KTS MONDAY NIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AT THIS TIME I WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT 14 PERCENT. THE 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL CAA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER WITH FROPA THAN THE GFS...AT THIS TIME I'M LEANING MORE WITH NAM. THEREFORE I INCREASED THE CHANCE POP COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PLACED 20 POPS IN FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH AXIS WILL CAUSE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB...AND BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY BE LOWER 80S FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS A BIT FASTER. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE POST FRONTAL RAIN AND CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE WAA ZONE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH READINGS MAY BE COOLER IF THE CLOUDS LINGER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING NORTH OF A MINNEAPOLIS...TO MANHATTAN...TO SENECA LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A COOL EARLY MORNING START...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PF/WG $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 425 PM SAT OCT 1 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SFC CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MAKING A RUN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON OUR AREA. YESTERDAYS THINKING THAT THE MODELS WERE OVER DOING THE MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TURNED OUT TO BE ALL WRONG. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ROTATED AROUND THE EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THIS HAS FORCED DEW POINTS TO CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY...AND CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. FROM ALL APPEARANCES...PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN GENERAL KEPT POPS BELOW 5 TO 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OTHER THAN FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH ABSOLUTE ZERO POPS AS FWC AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHT POPS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SAID...THE SHORT TERM WAS PRETTY MUCH ANOTHER TEMP FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WERE PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TONIGHTS FCST. THIS CU FIELD WAS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING INTO THE MID 80S TODAY AND CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARM. AND THE PESKY CU FIELD...AND MOISTURE SURGE WHICH DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT DID KEEP TEMPS UP THIS MORNING. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE...CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND WITH THE WARM START TO THE EVENING...COULD NOT BRING MYSELF TO BUY TOTALLY INTO THE COOLER FWC AND MAV MOS NUMBERS. DECIDED IN THE END TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES... BASICALLY WINDING UP WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER FWC/MAV AND WARMER MET NUMBERS. KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS EXCELLENT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMP WORDING IN THE ZONES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...FOR THE CCF GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS. EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE OVER AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED ON WED EVENING. A MORE MOIST DEEP LAYER RH PROGRESSES N AND NE INTO EASTERN KY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON WED AND WED NIGHT. THE QUESTIONS NOW LIE IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN WHAT HAPPENS WITH A POSSIBLE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE REGULAR GFS MEX MOS FROM 00Z IS NOTABLY COLDER THAN IT WAS FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS PRIOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRIDDED DATA ITSELF SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER THAN THE MOS. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MOS WAS NOT AS COLD AS THE REGULAR GFS MEX MOS...AND THE ECMWF GRIDDED DATA WAS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE GFS (ABOUT 8 DEG C DIFFERENCE AT 850 MB ON THU EVENING). HAVE OPTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MOS...WHICH SEEMED TO TEMPER THE EXTREME OF THE MODEL JUST A BIT. THE OTHER ISSUE WHICH EXISTS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN OVERRUNNING COLD SEASON TYPE PRECIP EVENT ON FRIDAY. THE NEW 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP MAKING IT AS FAR NW AS EAST KY AS AN IMPULSE DROPS INTO AND DEEPENS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PREVIOUS RUN FROM 00Z WAS DRY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THIS IS JUST A ROGUE RUN OF THE MODEL OR A RELIABLE TREND BEFORE JUMPING ALL OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAW AND RAINY DAY...AND AT THIS POINT WILL USE A FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS THE IMPULSE PASSES BY...BUT HAVE NOTED HPC THINKING THAT THE WAVE IN THE ECMWF IS OVERDONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 947 AM SAT OCT 1 2005 GFS AND NAM BOTH PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH JUST A HINT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS HELPING IN THE FORMATION OF A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE TN VALLEY AND KENTUCKY. NAM...GFS...AND RUC ALL PICK UP ON THE CU FIELD WITH HIGH RH VALUES AT ABOUT THE 850H LEVEL AND KEEP THE CU FIELD OVER OUR CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND FROM SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE BLUE GRASS. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF ANY CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CU FIELD SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONG EARLY OCTOBER SUN. SO WILL NOT DECREASE TEMPS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE BREAKS FILL CONSIDERABLY MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS AS WELL AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE SOME VIRGA BECAUSE THE CU DOES HAVE SOME DEPTH. BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY. OTHERWISE...UPDATE WILL ALSO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. UPDATED ZONES...GRID PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. 220 AM SAT OCT 1 2005 SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF OF THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY TREKKING THROUGH TX/OK WILL LIFT NE...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN PRETTY TIGHT WITHIN THE VORT...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL CIRRUS FROM THIS FEATURE AS IT DAMPENS WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG. LATEST MOS HAS JUMPED ON WARMER TEMPS AS H8 TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A BIT EACH DAY. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY AHEAD OF THE CURVE ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE BASED ON THE LATEST NUMBERS AND TRENDS. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY INTACT AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS IS PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. 341 PM FRI SEP 30 2005 SHORT TERM TONIGHT...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE MID 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES TO MAKE A NEAR PERFECT AUTUMN DAY. SFC FEATURES SHOW A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THE WEEKEND SHORT WAVE AND MOVE IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAKENING AS IT RIDES UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE A GLANCING BLOW TO OUR AREA. BUT AT PRESENT SEEMS TO PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE WEST. FCST WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE IT WAS PRETTY MUCH A TEMP FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FROM LAST SHIFT LOOKED GOOD...AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR CCF PURPOSES. ONLY WENT MID 40S FOR VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO OF OUR COLDEST SPOTS MADE IT DOWN TO AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY TOMORROW MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS THAT MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THE RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS MOST OF IT APPEARS TO HANG UP ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT MAKES IT ACROSS THE DIVIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONSEQUENTLY TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SLOWER WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF MORNING LOWS. HOWEVER...EXPECT MY DEW POINTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSUE OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY TAKE DEW POINTS EVEN LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. WITH THIS IN MIND...MORNING LOWS FOR MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS...AND CLOSE TO THE HIGHER END FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR EASTERN KY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LIFT OVER THE RIDGE AT MIDWEEK...FLATTENING IT AND PUSHING IT EAST. THIS ALLOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TIMING IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. IN REALITY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND IN THE END IT WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE FOR A SHORTER PERIOD. AS THE EVENT APPROACHES... HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WILL INCREASE. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE POP TIME WINDOW TO BE SHORTENED AND THE POP VALUE TO BE RAISED DURING THAT SMALLER WINDOW. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES. UPDATED ZONES...PRODUCTS OUT SOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RAY/HAL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 255 PM EDT SAT 1 OCT 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... CURRENT SYNOPSIS SHOWS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEWPTS NORTH IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE VIS SAT...CLOUDS SOUTH/CLEAR NORTH. RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...WITH THE SFC HI EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SFC FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AROUND THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH TONIGHT WITH DEWPTS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 60 FOR ENTIRE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTING TO OPEN INTO A WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...TRAVELING FROM NW MO TOWARDS THE CHI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DECENT MOISTURE FROM SFC TO 700MB...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...ALL WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING FROM THE SE CONUS RIDGE AND PRODUCE A CHC OR SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD KY TO SCOTTSBURG IN. NAM/GFS SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY ...WITH MET MOS HAVING THE HIER 12HR POPS...SUPPORT FOR ADDING POPS ALSO COMES FROM UKMET AND 48HR RUC WITH EACH SHOWING PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TREND WITH MOS HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM LATELY...HAVE CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS BLEND WITH LOWER 80S LIKELY AND A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE ALSO FACTORS IN CUTTING BACK THE HI TEMPS SUNDAY. .LONG TERM (SUN NGT THRU SAT)... SUN NGT THRU TUE NGT... MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MOVG SHRTWV TROF TO OUR N SUN NGT WITH BUILDING RDG IN WAKE. DEEPER MSTR SHUD BE MOVG OUT OF OUR FA SUN NGT/MON AS RIDGING BECOMES ENTRENCHED AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODERATING TEMPS SHUD CONT WITH LIGHT SELY FLO...THO WILL CONT TO LOWER A DEG OR TWO UNDER NAM/GFS MOS THRU THE PD...WHICH HAS VERIFIED LAST 48HRS. NAM...ESPECIALLY APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH READINGS AROUND 70 MON. A CHECK OF MOS VS CURRENT FCST TEMPS THRU THE PD SHOWS A MODEST DISCREPANCY FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH MOS SEVERAL DEGS HIER. WILL TREND THAT WAY BUT NOT THE FULL EXTENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WED THRU SAT... PERTAINING TO RAIN CHCS WILL CONT TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER/MORE DYNAMIC GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH MOVEMENT OF UPR LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WED NGT/THU TIME FRAME WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO BRING RAIN CHCS ACRS OUR FA BEGINNING WED AFTN(PRE-FNTL)INTO WED NGT. WILL CHG RW TO TRW WITH ENUF INSTAB PRESENT AND TO FIT BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HPCS TIMING WITH FROPA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH LAST 24H AND WILL DROP POPS BY 11Z THU WITH THE LAST OF THE POST FNTL RAINFALL CHC. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE EVEN GREATER WITH FRI/SAT TIME PD WITH ECMWF SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACRS THE OH VLY WITH GFS IN THE MIDST OF BUILDING A RIDGE. WILL NOT ADD POPS AT THIS POINT WITH SUCH DISCREPANCY THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL LOWER TEMPS BEGINNING THU...CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. --JDK && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SCHOTT ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCE OF RAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON THEN CHANCES OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH APPROACH OF SIGNIFICANT NRN PAC SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR LOOP...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETTING UP OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A RDG CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA AND A BROAD TROF DIGGING INTO THE ERN PAC. A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM OKLA AND ERN KS IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO LIFT OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. TONIGHT...AS MID LVL TROF DIGS MORE INTO THE PAC NW...SRLY SFC GRAD IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVER FCST AREA AHEAD OF PLAINS SFC TROF. INCREASING WIND AND DEW POINT SURGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ABV NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT. BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MID 50S ALONG THE WI BDR AND LOWER 60S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE AS BROAD 5H RDG AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY E LATE IN DAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN AFT SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF SRLY GRAD SHOULD SUPPRESS LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND WITH 8H TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 16C...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH LOWER 80S OVER WEST HALF OF CWA AND MID TO UPR 70S EAST HALF. SRLY ONSHORE WILL KEEP READINGS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE STILL PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS NOTED BY GFS/NAM AND UKMET. DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE MAY LIMIT PCPN CHCS AND MODELS SHOW MID LVL Q-VECT CONV WEAKENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. MODEL INSIST ON DROPPING ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .2 PCPN OVER ERN HALF OF U.P. STILL HESISTANT TO GO ANYMORE THEN LOW CHC POPS GIVEN THAT SHORTWAVE HAS TO STILL PLOW THROUGH DRY AIR OF UPR RDG. SO KEPT 40 POPS EAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND LOW CHC POPS CENTRAL. KEPT IN SLGT CHC POPS FOR WEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE. FOLLOWED GFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN SOLN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF LAKE LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE MON NIGHT AND KEEPING FCST AREA DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CAPPED. ALTHOUGH 8H TEMPS ARE 16-17C MON AND TUE...AM A BIT WORRIED THAT CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO WEST COULD DRIFT OVER AREA AND LIMIT INSOLATION SOME SO HAVE KEPT DAYTIME HIGH IN MID TO UPR 70S BOTH MON AND TUE. EXTENDED...STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF NRN PAC SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER SOLNS OFFERED BY 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN IT IS STILL ABOUT 12 HRS QUICKER THAN THESE MODELS WITH FRONTAL TIMING. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCE WILL PROVE TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR FCSTG HIGH TEMPS ON WED AND TIMING OF MIX WITH SNOW WED NIGHT. GENERALLY KEPT WITH GOING FCST FOR WED WHICH WAS LEANING MORE TOWARD ECMWF WHICH WAS A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BTWM QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER CANADIAN. STILL KEPT WED HIGHS IN MID 50S WEST AND LOWER 60S EAST. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ON WED AS ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT FOR THUNDER. WITH GOOD CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW ADVERTISED BY CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTEND UKMET ALONG WITH 8H TEMPS FCST TO FALL TO -6C/-7C THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA AND SOME POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AREAS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SUGGESTED BY FALLING 1000-850 MB MODEL THCKNS AND GFS MODEL SNDGS. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE BUILD IN HIGH PRES FROM WEST BY FRI AND THEN BRING EVEN MORE RDGG AND WARMING FOR NEXT SAT SHOULD BE SOME WARMING INTO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY AFTER COOL DAY ON FRI. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)... VIGOROUS MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...MAKING STEADY NORTHEAST PROGRESS OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN AN AREA MARKED BY MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT CENTERED ON THE 305K SURFACE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY QUANTIFIED BY MUCAPES GENERALLY 300-500 J/KG (OWING TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE METRO AREA SOUTHWARD. TIMING AND FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAJECTORIES...BEING THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. THIS WOULD TEND TO HOLD MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 850-700MB FLOW BEGINS TO VEER. TENDENCY FOR NEW CELL REGENERATION ALONG THE SW FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER WEST CENTRAL MO AND EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCALLY REDUCED. MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE AND OPEN TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AS IT ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN A RAPID WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING FROM UPSTREAM TROUGHING LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE QUICKLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS COULD FREQUENTLY APPROACH 30 MPH OVER WRN MO/ERN KS AS A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS SURGES NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS NEAR 90F ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN FAVORED URBAN AREAS. BOOKBINDER LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MAIN FORECAST FEATURE TO CONCENTRATE ON THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MID RANGE MODELS PUTS THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DGEX WAS THE LONE MODEL THAT SLOWED IT DOWN TO WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FOR TUES NIGHT. AFTER FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE PD. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. GFS MAY BE A LITTLE GUNG HO WITH ITS CAA...BUT NEVERTHELESS H8 TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE COLDEST NUMBERS OF THE SEASON WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS LIKELY IN NORTHERN MO BY 00Z THU. THE REFLECTED SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE AREA...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP...SO TEMPS WILL JUST SLOWLY CREEP UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. LVKQ && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...CHALLENGING FORECAST AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON... SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT CLOUDS OVER WRN MO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LIFTING ACROSS FAR NRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AROUND 00Z. ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT WILL APPROACH THE KANSAS CITY AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER RADAR/SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATIONS AND NAM/RUC PROGS. JUXTAPOSED BENEATH MID LEVEL FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL STORMS (AT KMKC/KMCI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE INCREASING CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY TOWARD MORNING AS WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTHWARD AND A SECOND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM SECTOR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE S AND SSW...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. BOOKBINDER && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 225 AM... MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE BOWLING BALL MASQUERADING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CUTOFF LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL BE TAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY BIG ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO UP THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THIS MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CWA...BUT I THINK THEY WILL BE FIGHTING A LOSING BATTLE. EXPECTATION IS THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FEEDING THESE STORMS WILL LET UP...AND BY 12Z THE STORMS WILL BE DISIPATING. HENCE...I HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE LOW WILL BRING THE RAIN...BUT THE 30 KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR AND RAIN COOLED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF WIND EVENT...SO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RUN AROUND TO ABOVE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 36...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH RUNNING BETWEEN 1.4 AND 2 INCHES. SO...SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI EVEN AS THE LOW IS DEPARTING. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C...I HAVE UPPED TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO I HAVE ALSO BUMPED THOSE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...CHALLENGING FORECAST AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON... SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT CLOUDS OVER WRN MO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LIFTING ACROSS FAR NRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z. LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AROUND 00Z. ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH BASES AROUND 10KFT WILL APPROACH THE KANSAS CITY AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER RADAR/SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATIONS AND NAM/RUC PROGS. JUXTAPOSED BENEATH MID LEVEL FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL STORMS (AT KMKC/KMCI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...BUT THE INCREASING CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY TOWARD MORNING AS WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTHWARD AND A SECOND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM SECTOR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE S AND SSW...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. BOOKBINDER && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 225 AM... MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE BOWLING BALL MASQUERADING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CUTOFF LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL BE TAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY BIG ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO UP THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THIS MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CWA...BUT I THINK THEY WILL BE FIGHTING A LOSING BATTLE. EXPECTATION IS THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FEEDING THESE STORMS WILL LET UP...AND BY 12Z THE STORMS WILL BE DISIPATING. HENCE...I HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE LOW WILL BRING THE RAIN...BUT THE 30 KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR AND RAIN COOLED SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF WIND EVENT...SO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RUN AROUND TO ABOVE 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 36...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH RUNNING BETWEEN 1.4 AND 2 INCHES. SO...SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI EVEN AS THE LOW IS DEPARTING. WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C...I HAVE UPPED TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO I HAVE ALSO BUMPED THOSE TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 629 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAKE FOR PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LINGERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. NAM/GFS/RUC ARE ALL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS. NGM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND I INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG CLOSE TO SUNRISE AT TOL MFD CAK AND YNG WHERE WINDS WILL VERY LIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME CU AT THE WESTERN SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST...BUT FEEL THAT ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN CLEAR OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT)... TNGT THRU MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRES REMAINS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY ...EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION FROM OFF THE EAST CST. THE HIGH WKNS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY AFTN AS A WK UPPR SHORT WAVE...NOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES NE. MSTR ALSO INCRS ACRS WRN OH AND BUFKIT SHOWS ETA CAPES IN THE REGION APCH 2000J/KG. BLV FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL RMN NW OF THE AREA ALTHO NOT BY MUCH. WILL HWVR MAINTAIN A DRY FCST BUT IF LATER RUNS INCRS MSTR OR DRIVE THE UPPR WAVE CLOSER...WL NEED TO ADD CHC POPS. GFS/ETA SHOW AMS DRYG OUT MONDAY NIGHT. BLV FWC GUIDANCE IS A BIT WARM AGAIN FOR TNGT. DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ATTM AND GFS/ETA NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVN OR BNDRY LYR WND TO KP UP MIXING. SO WITH NO BIG AMS CHG THINK WE CAN STILL RADIATE WELL OVRNGT...AT LEAST BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 50S INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. THUS WILL DROP BY A CAT OR TWO. MORE MSTR REACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THERE. FOR AFTN TEMPS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE NOT IMPOSSIBLE...FOR NOW WILL KP HIGHS OUT OF THE MID 80S GVN SEASONALITY. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SAT)... THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER REACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE ALL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THRU 84 HOURS WITH FRONTAL PSTN WITH THE 06Z DGEX IS MUCH SLOWER. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN VS THE DGEX THRU THURSDAY SO WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE TIMG AND CONTINUE WITH FROPA WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN FACT THE GFS IF ANYTHING IS A FEW HOURS FASTER. HAVE ADJUSTED TSTM CHANCES TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ZONE GROUPING EAST FOR WED AFTN FM PRVS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR PREFRONTAL INSTBY AND THE FRONTAL TIMG WHICH NOW REACHES NEAR KCLE BY 00Z THURS. WILL HANG ONTO TSTM CHCS EAST OF THERE THRU MIDNIGHT OTRW JUST RAIN OVRNGT BHND THE FRONT. MEX/HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD GVN 850MB TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST AT -2C THURS 18Z. WILL BASICALL GO WITH UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60. FRIDAY MORNING GFS HINTING ON THE BNDRY LYR WINDS REMAINING UP AND THUS AREA SHOULD NOT RADIATE WELL...HWVR IF WINDS DROP OFF...FROST LKLY WILL BE AN ISSUE AWAY FM THE LAKE AS AMS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD. TEMPS EVENTUALLY GET BACK TO NR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES ABV BY SAT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE .PA...NONE $$ SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...LEINS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 137 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2005 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST HALF OF MID STATE...BASED ON MID-LEVEL FEATURE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. COULD KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH RUC AND GFS HAS THIS FEATURE LIFTING NORTH ALSO. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP RUNNING FOR SUNDAY...AGAIN MAINLY WEST HALF OF MID STATE AS UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR MAV NUMBERS BUT WILL TREND A LITTLE BELOW ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATRUDAY) UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. STILL A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU...AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO COME ACROSS. CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU INTO FRIDAY DUE TO SLOWNESS OF TROUGH TO PULL EAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 64 84 65 87 / 20 20 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 64 85 64 87 / 20 20 10 10 CROSSVILLE 60 80 60 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BOYD tn