National Weather Service
Current
Version
Previous Version:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Area Forecast Discussion
000
fxus64 kcrp 142013
afdcrp
area forecast discussion
national weather service corpus christi tx
313 pm cdt sat mar 14 2009
. short term ... precipitation will be lingering over the northern
coastal bend and coastal waters early this evening as the current
mid level short wave trough over the brush country moves to the
east and the associated upper level divergence from the right
entrance region of the upper jet streak moves off to the
northeast. then there should be a lull in the precip activity
during the late evening hours.
models show low level theta - e advection from deep south texas
into the southern portions of the forecast area after midnight
as the next mid/upper level short wave trough approaches from
northeast mexico. as low level warm air advection increases
over the coastal plains ... lift will further be enhanced by upper
level dynamics associated with another upper level jet streak
that will move into the region on sunday. will continue to show
likely pops along the coast sunday morning with a slim chance for
isolated convection embedded within this activity. rain chances
will end from west to east by sunday evening with partial clearing
over the western counties sunday night. went below guidance for
max temperatures over the coastal plains sunday and near the cooler
gfs mos over the brush country. no significant issues regarding
wind with a weak to moderate offshore flow for the period.
&&
. long term (monday through saturday)... an upper level short wave
will be exiting the region early monday with a ridge building in
from the west. this will lead to a dry/subsident airmass by mon
afternoon and continuing into tue. winds are expected to become
onshore by monday afternoon as a sfc high shifts e of the area ... but
winds are expected to remain weak to mod at the most. although the
upper level ridge will still be at play on wed ... moisture will be on
the increase in the lower levels in response to low pressure across
the plains leading to a deeper sly low level flow across s tx. by
thu the model solns begin to diverge but are in somewhat agreement
with a baggy trof dvlpg on nrn periphery of ridge across baja ... but
differ in how far s it progresses and how much moisture will be
available thru the end of the week. also in question will be a cold
front and how far s it moves across tx. latest models take the
associated sfc high across the se u. s. with the frontal bdry `back
dooring` the ne portions of the cwa by fri morning. given sufficient
low level moisture and convergence across the ne cwa and the baggy
trof to the w ... maintained the slight chc for the ne. however ... jet
dynamics are lacking. the ecmwf is weaker/farther n and faster with
the trof mvg across tx by sat than the gfs. the gfs on the otherhand
is drier by sat than the emcwf. for consistency sake ... kept the
slight chc for sat. a gradual warming trend will take place thru the
week with temps near to slightly abv norm.
&&
. preliminary point temps/pops...
corpus christi 45 62 53 78 57 / 30 60 20 10 10
victoria 42 60 47 79 53 / 40 50 20 10 10
laredo 47 71 52 86 60 / 30 30 10 10 0
alice 45 67 49 81 53 / 30 50 20 10 0
rockport 45 60 55 74 57 / 40 60 20 10 10
cotulla 42 69 46 83 53 / 20 30 10 10 0
kingsville 44 64 51 80 56 / 30 50 20 10 0
navy corpus 45 61 56 76 62 / 40 60 20 10 10
&&
. crp watches/warnings/advisories...
tx ... none.
gm ... none.
&&
$$
tmt/89 ... short term
te/81 ... long term