Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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000 FXUS63 KDMX 122311 AAA AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 611 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. HIGH CURRENTLY HEADING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS RETURNING TO THE REGION. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CREATING BKN TO OVC100 OVER EASTERN NE ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY DOWNGLIDE PREVENTING ANY EXPANSION INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW...THICKNESS EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO PREVIOUS NIGHT LEVELS. BY EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. HAVE DROPPED MINS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF TODAYS PM TEMPS LAGGING FCST SO FAR AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT...SO ADDITIONALLY LOWER MINS SEEM APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. /REV .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK/MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE STATE REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SPLIT JETS...WITH THE NORTHERN JET REMAINING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN JET SENDING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL US/SOUTHEAST. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND +5C TO +10C BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRINGING A STRONGER WAA PATTERN WITH IT. MODELS RIGHT NOW ADVERTISING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH WARMING EXPECTED...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID WITH MOST SITES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TO AROUND 10C THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AS WELL. EC/GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE MORE INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS MOISTURE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION...13/00Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING NEARBY...LIGHT WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PREVAILING CIGS BASED AROUND FL070-120 OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...MJA AVIATION...LEE