000
FXUS63 KDMX 122311 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. HIGH
CURRENTLY HEADING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CREATING BKN TO
OVC100 OVER EASTERN NE ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY DOWNGLIDE PREVENTING ANY
EXPANSION INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THOUGH
DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW...THICKNESS EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TO PREVIOUS NIGHT LEVELS. BY EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. HAVE DROPPED MINS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS OF TODAYS PM TEMPS LAGGING FCST SO FAR AND
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE.  CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE
EAST TONIGHT...SO ADDITIONALLY LOWER MINS SEEM APPROPRIATE.
OTHERWISE NO SIG WX. /REV

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK/MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE STATE REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SPLIT JETS...WITH THE
NORTHERN JET REMAINING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/GREAT LAKES AND THE
SOUTHERN JET SENDING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL US/SOUTHEAST.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS H85 TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND +5C TO +10C BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BRINGING A STRONGER WAA
PATTERN WITH IT. MODELS RIGHT NOW ADVERTISING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH WARMING
EXPECTED...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID WITH MOST SITES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TO
AROUND 10C THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED AS WELL. EC/GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND A LITTLE MORE INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS
MOISTURE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...13/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINING NEARBY...LIGHT WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PREVAILING CIGS BASED AROUND
FL070-120 OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MJA
AVIATION...LEE