000
FXUS04 KWBC 080948
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
547 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 08/1200 UTC THRU MAR 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..SO
MADE ONLY MINOR CHGS
TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.

DAY 1...

...MIDWEST ENEWD INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES/SRN NEW ENG...
AGAIN..LATEST MDL SOLNS SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 TROF XPCD TO LIFT GENLY NEWD FM
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WRN NY STATE THIS PD..WITH ONLY VRY MINOR
TIMING DIFFS NOTED.  ALTHO THE SYS WL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A WKNG
MODE AS IT MOVS THRU THE ERN U.S. RDG..ESP LTR IN THE PD..IT WL
STILL HAVE DECENT HGT FALLS/MID LVL DYNAMICS AND LRG SCALE LIFT
WITH IT..AND WL BE PRECEDED BY A STG 50+KT SWLY LLJ..SUCH THAT
WIDESPREAD OVRRNG MDT TO LCL HVY PCPN IS XPCD FM THE MIDWEST ENEWD
INTO SRN NEW ENG..WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY ON THE NWRN
FRINGE OF THE SYS.  PLS SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL
POTNL.  COMBO OF STG LLJ INTO THE AREA ERY IN THE PD FOLLOWED BY
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ENHANCEMENT LTR SUN WL LEAD TO ONE PCPN MAX
FM ERN IA ENEWD INTO WRN MI..WITH ANOTHER RNFL MAX LIKELY PTNS OF
THE UPR OH VLY ON NOSE OF STG LLJ LTR SUN.  NAM AND GFS QPFS ARE
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALSO..SO DIDN`T HAVE TO MAKE
MANY CHGS TO THEM.  XPC SOME 1-2 INCH RNFL AMTS ERN IA INTO NRN
IL..SOME GTR THAN 1 INCH AMTS IN THE UPR OH VLY..WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD GTR THAN 0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS FM THE GTLKS INTO
THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.


...PAC NW INTO THE NRN/CNTRL GT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
THE H5 TROF DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW/NRN GT BASIN ATTM IS FCST
SIMILARLY BY THE MDLS TO CONT DIGGING GENLY SWD INTO THE CNTRL GT
BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY MON MRNG.  COMBO OF HGT FALLS/MID LVL
DYNAMICS WL INCREASE PCPN THRUOUT THE PAC NW INTO THE GT BASIN AND
ROCKIES..WITH SOME ONSHORE FLO INTO OR ENHANCING PCPN AMTS THERE.
BUT..IN GENL..SYS WON`T HAVE MUCH MSTR WITH IT..LIMITING PCPN AMTS
AND KEEPING TOTALS MSTLY ON THE LGT TO LCLY MDT SIDE.  MDL QPFS
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT..SO ENDED UP GENLY TAKING A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND GFS QPF SOLNS.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...PAC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

A VERY COMPLEX AND ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WITH PAC AND ARCTIC
STREAMS INVOLVED WILL BLANKET THE REGION OVER THE TWO-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. A STRONG POLAR JET... W/ ARCTIC INFLUENCE... CARVING
AROUND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL SEE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES EJECT
OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... WITH ONE STREAKING ACROSS THE
REGION ON MON WITH GENERALLY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A
SECOND MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN GREAT
BASIN ON TUE.  ON MON... EXPECT THE POLAR FRONT TO PRESS EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE IMPULSE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
NRN MN... WHILE UPSTREAM THE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS CONTINUES ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OR MAINLY SNOW FROM THE PAC
NW ROUNDING THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. ONCE THE TWO STREAMS BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ON
TUES... THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PAC WILL ATTEMPT TO STEER
THE FORMIDABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST/WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  BY THE TIME THE FEATURE ARRIVES INTO THE
PLAINS... MODEST SRN STREAM DYNAMICS AND AMPLE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME INCORPORATED...PRODUCING A LATE WINTER SNOW STORM OVER
THE UPPER PLAINS/MS VLY.  REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE FOR
FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOWS.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VLYS/NORTHEAST...

A STREAK OF SRN STREAM DYNAMICS WILL GLIDE TOWARD THE MID TO LWR
MS VLY AND INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET TRANSPORTING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGGED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FOR WHAT
WILL COMMENCE A VERY WET 24 TO 36 HR PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. LATE MON EVENING... THESE DYNAMICS AND UPPER JET
WILL INDUCE A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LIKELY STRONG CONVECTION AND
PROCEED DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
ONLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT PROCEEDS THROUGH THE MID MS VLY
INTO THE OH VLY. PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY WILL
LIKELY SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AND
EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION.  WHILE THE GFS FALLS IN
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK/TIMING OF THIS
ENERGY...IT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH A MORE DEFINED SFC
REFLECTION NEARING SRN LAKE MICH TUE MORNING. GIVEN THE SHEARED
NATURE OF THE MID LVL ENERGY...SUSPECT THE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING
THINGS A BIT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS THIS REGION...EXTENDING INTO WRN
PA/NY ON DAY 3 AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WRAPPING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES PRESSES
INTO THE REGION.  MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF...WITH
THE GFS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.  WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE GFS TRENDING
SLOWER...THE HPC FORECAST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.


TERRY/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 520686 516674 513667 512666 506659 501655 497652 496647
      492637 487629 483625 478622 472620 469622 465624 464628
      463634 466643 462646 456648 453653 450656 446664 448671
      451674 454676 466676 468683 466689 459698 452709 446716
      443716 440713 437708 432703 421692 416688 410685 404686
      400689 398693 394699 393704 393716 390728 391740 392755
      393763 393771 392779 390788 388794 384798 379803 375807
      367815 359823 355827 350831 344842 340855 340872 340887
      338898 335909 331919 326929 321939 309962 304972 301978
      300983 302985 307985 312982 317980 324973 332964 342956
      351954 356949 363947 373947 385948 391949 395952 403956
      413960 425966 429968 433967 439963 443957 445951 450935
      453923 457908 460881 465875 469865 470857 471847 471840
      473833 475816 475800 472781 467766 462751 453734 451729
      453725 458721 464716 467709 470704 473701 479702 488704
      496709 506712 515712 519704 520697 520686
 0.01 536191 528173 520158 517153 512153 506142 501127 494116
      482094 479090 479085 480076 476055 477042 481022 483014
      486006 491995 493989 494983 496974 495964 492960 487960
      482961 477966 473973 470979 467987 466990 465995 463002
      461009 458016 452027 449031 443035 440039 441044 444048
      444052 441059 436063 431068 447088 440088 435089 431086
      428082 425082 422083 421088 424094 427100 425100 421103
      418107 412103 409098 405101 403107 400115 399127 402129
      406128 413127 417131 416138 413145 402155 399162 393168
      389172 389176 392177 406181 407182 408186 406195 402201
      395201 390199 386202 386207 390213 393214 395218 400219
      404216 408214 413214 415211 417208 419205 423211 422218
      419222 418227 398236 395240 394245 405250 413252 420252
      428253 434253 446253 454252 460252 471253 479256 483261
      487265 493268 497269 499262 493244 493239 490235 486234
      484231 486227 488228 491234 501243 505241 507236 506228
      504221 502213 497208 490203 483201 475202 469205 456208
      452207 448204 450200 453197 461190 464186 467183 468179
      473177 479178 487182 491183 495182 502185 506188 508190
      512191 515192 518194 519196 523192 526190 531192 535192
      536191
 0.01 444211 443207 439202 437198 436193 435185 432183 431188
      428192 425197 424202 427204 429208 435209 441210 444211
 0.01 442178 443174 442173 440171 437169 437168 437169 437170
      437173 439176 440177 442178 442178
 0.01 444133 443128 441124 440121 437120 434124 431128 429131
      427135 427141 429147 431148 434144 436140 441137 444133
 0.01 336085 334082 331079 329077 327072 334062 333057 330055
      321054 312055 306059 301075 294079 288081 285085 285088
      288094 301104 307107 315110 321110 325108 327107 329102
      330095 332093 335086 336085
 0.25 459790 457779 454770 449754 444740 438731 429720 426717
      422714 414711 410712 405717 403722 403728 401741 401762
      399775 397786 395798 395808 393834 390855 388867 388879
      389887 390892 394903 394912 393918 394927 397933 403937
      413937 420938 426937 431937 435935 438932 440927 445917
      450893 455869 457854 459842 460828 460816 459790
 0.25 478140 485144 488144 489140 487136 483134 479132 474135
      474137 475139 478140
 0.25 467160 469161 471162 473162 474159 473158 470157 467157
      467160
 0.25 458236 460224 457218 453217 449217 443217 437218 431220
      427222 426227 427230 427235 421241 424244 428245 432245
      439243 445241 451239 458237 458236
 0.25 462178 460176 457177 456178 455180 456184 459183 461182
      462178 462178
 0.25 467110 469106 467103 461102 458101 454099 453099 449099
      446100 441100 437100 435102 432105 428108 428110 431111
      434112 443114 449117 455114 458111 464112 467110
 0.50 453855 454837 451813 449807 445803 439799 436794 435785
      435777 435766 433753 431746 426738 423735 419731 416729
      411737 408745 406757 404768 401787 399797 399808 399828
      397871 398887 400898 400905 400910 399921 399925 401929
      409931 414931 419930 429927 433923 436919 438914 441909
      444902 447891 449880 451868 453855
 0.50 440226 444226 448226 450224 451221 449220 444221 439222
      440226
 1.00 442880 440864 436865 435870 431875 426876 422879 421883
      417893 413905 411910 409913 407919 407923 411924 416922
      424917 428913 430908 435899 439895 441891 442880
 1.00 417787 414780 411781 409784 407792 406800 406809 408820
      408828 410832 412834 414833 415829 417823 418815 418803
      418794 417787

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 530175 531167 528160 523150 518139 516133 511128 506119
      498114 492114 487113 484109 481104 478096 476089 477082
      479076 480072 480055 482048 484044 487039 489033 491018
      492010 492002 492985 492977 494972 498961 503949 507938
      509931 511923 512911 512897 511889 512883 513874 513870
      512865 513860 513853 511845 509844 506845 502850 500855
      494863 491869 487880 483891 477900 466919 455934 443953
      431966 426973 423982 421994 421004 414026 413043 411047
      407049 400054 389059 383064 381068 378066 374060 366056
      363054 358054 355055 352061 346054 338048 335046 330045
      324043 317046 315049 316052 313055 310058 308063 310069
      311078 306080 299078 287072 282071 277071 275072 272073
      270076 272093 279097 284099 289100 298100 304104 308106
      314107 320107 326108 334112 337112 341110 343107 344101
      342089 338080 334074 335067 339066 344065 348064 352062
      355065 358073 364078 367080 368086 371095 374099 377102
      380100 382099 385099 389102 389109 381113 377116 375120
      373124 371130 370138 372144 378149 384152 389151 393154
      391160 390165 387171 391175 396183 397187 396189 393191
      390191 386188 382191 381193 383199 389202 395203 398202
      402199 406196 412189 417192 420193 424194 429191 439173
      442174 443178 439181 437186 436192 437197 441205 445206
      449204 451201 455197 461190 469186 474187 478190 481195
      479199 475202 470203 467205 462207 454210 450213 444212
      440214 438214 429207 427205 422205 423214 420222 418228
      415231 408235 406238 404240 406244 412246 420249 428252
      436254 446252 456249 465247 474249 480252 484256 491265
      494266 497264 497255 494245 493240 494239 499241 502238
      505226 505220 503215 498206 495202 495198 499195 501193
      504192 512200 518202 522202 522192 523187 526184 530179
      530175
 0.01 466753 462738 457725 448705 443696 436687 424673 418667
      411664 396666 394667 392670 391675 391684 392693 394704
      395708 395715 395725 394742 405761 408769 407776 400784
      392791 387798 387803 392802 398799 405798 408800 410804
      416809 422809 427806 434806 448811 451812 457812 462809
      466805 468803 469798 470788 469776 468767 466753
 0.01 473868 472864 468860 464859 459861 450864 448864 444862
      442852 439839 434830 430826 426823 422821 419821 413822
      404826 400827 398826 386822 382821 378823 373829 372834
      368834 367826 366822 363820 355823 348826 343832 339837
      336846 335853 335864 334873 335880 334896 333913 330931
      326947 320962 314974 310978 303983 296986 289990 280997
      277003 276008 278013 283016 285020 287025 293027 303026
      328014 333008 339002 345997 346996 351995 365994 373993
      380991 392979 402967 407960 412954 422943 429940 439938
      449934 454929 459922 462915 466907 469898 472882 473871
      473868
 0.01 446133 445131 443128 441124 437123 431128 428132 426143
      426155 429160 434165 433160 433154 433148 436139 442137
      446133
 0.01 398136 396134 393133 390134 389135 388138 390142 393142
      395139 396139 398136
 0.01 373850 372847 371843 371840 369837 367837 366837 366838
      364842 363846 362846 361851 361854 362858 363859 364857
      365855 367853 370854 373850 373850
 0.25 498913 494906 490901 487906 485913 479924 473938 469956
      466970 465982 464989 461995 457001 447010 443016 441023
      437034 430048 421057 419061 417062 412064 401068 389072
      387077 389081 394084 407082 417078 421081 422092 425099
      425104 421107 417108 414107 412103 409101 406106 401110
      395113 389116 392119 396119 400121 404123 407121 412122
      415122 419119 423113 426110 432107 436107 439105 447095
      454086 455081 455075 454069 454064 457056 460048 465034
      469019 470012 471999 471991 472985 473982 478977 483971
      488960 491952 493943 496925 498913
 0.25 497163 496159 494154 489152 482153 478152 473151 468148
      464148 462151 461154 461161 463168 469172 475172 482169
      487165 496164 497163
 0.25 443723 439712 435706 425691 420685 415680 408677 406677
      403680 401687 401695 404706 409716 413726 417733 420736
      421742 422746 428753 434756 441754 444746 445738 444727
      443723
 0.25 466222 467217 466215 461214 452216 443217 435221 434225
      435229 437233 437236 433239 430244 433245 439244 448242
      457240 461238 461235 456231 456227 459227 463225 466222
 0.25 430896 429883 427872 425860 423855 421851 416844 411840
      409839 405839 398844 394850 392857 390873 388881 385888
      381903 379911 377917 371931 367937 363943 356953 352961
      351969 350971 352974 354975 362976 377975 383973 390969
      395964 399958 407946 411941 416935 421928 425922 427917
      430909 430896
 0.50 424705 422702 421698 420694 418692 418691 414690 412693
      412696 414699 415702 416703 418705 420708 421708 424708
      424705
 0.50 442068 441066 440064 439062 436061 433060 432060 430060
      427060 430063 430064 432068 433069 436069 439068 441069
      442068
 0.50 423890 422879 421870 419860 416853 412848 408848 405850
      400854 398860 396875 392886 385911 381923 375934 370946
      364955 363961 365966 375968 379968 383967 387964 395956
      408934 415924 418919 420912 422906 423899 423890
 0.50 415118 414117 411115 410114 409113 408114 409115 410118
      411119 414119 415118
 1.00 416884 415872 413862 410858 407860 405865 403874 400882
      395895 391911 387924 385932 384941 385947 387951 390950
      392949 396945 398939 401932 405926 410919 413913 416904
      416896 416884
 1.50 410886 410880 408875 406880 404886 401893 399902 397910
      395918 395921 397923 401921 404916 408909 410902 411896
      411890 410886

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 531820 529808 527802 525800 517786 499776 490773 486771
      481767 473758 465749 460741 453732 447724 438718 431713
      422711 412709 405705 400702 395700 384699 376700 370703
      367708 367713 368721 372731 378745 379751 380758 383769
      388778 387783 385789 380801 366837 361848 359855 357860
      353868 347878 337898 332906 325915 312931 306937 298944
      288954 281959 276965 274971 274977 280975 284972 290966
      297959 310943 312946 313949 314954 317957 317961 308975
      296992 292999 289003 288007 287012 283015 282020 282025
      282041 278052 275056 271058 263062 258069 256074 257077
      262086 266090 269091 278093 286093 293090 296088 299083
      301063 307055 309046 310040 315036 321026 324001 333983
      339973 344965 360969 367963 372957 379949 385940 388935
      391935 395939 398941 404944 407946 408948 410956 412962
      413967 413982 414001 414006 416011 420017 424027 428038
      427045 424047 421048 415046 408047 401049 396053 392057
      388060 383062 381064 378063 376060 371059 366061 363062
      360063 359066 361072 367075 370078 372083 373084 381085
      386089 392089 395089 398087 401083 405080 414078 427079
      431082 437084 438085 436088 432088 426088 424092 424096
      422100 418106 415107 410105 406107 403112 403114 407118
      412120 419123 423124 426123 430124 435120 440120 444124
      450134 455145 458157 463164 467166 472167 477166 484165
      490168 503172 505170 507166 505157 496134 491124 486117
      481108 478103 478094 478082 481075 488064 489046 490027
      492010 493003 495999 497996 503986 508975 513962 517950
      524928 527915 530899 533884 534870 533860 534855 534848
      533840 531820
 0.01 465119 464117 461117 460118 461119 464120 465119
 0.25 522836 520826 518821 516816 512812 510811 505812 496819
      489827 484835 478842 474849 471855 468859 461865 456874
      454880 452892 452900 450904 446912 442920 440925 439930
      438941 437951 439959 444970 449979 456994 460998 463000
      467001 472999 477994 482987 499949 508932 512922 515912
      520888 522875 522865 522846 522836
 0.25 448774 445763 443754 440747 436741 429736 420734 411731
      403732 401734 399738 399749 398760 397768 397775 398781
      397788 391807 388821 384833 377852 373864 368873 359891
      354901 348911 343919 340928 340933 342937 346939 357939
      362939 367937 376930 384923 393915 399909 407900 419880
      425870 429862 435849 439838 442827 444815 445801 447792
      448780 448774
 0.50 514859 513846 512840 510835 507834 503836 498840 493845
      487852 479860 469872 466878 465884 464893 462900 458912
      455921 454928 453935 451940 447948 447953 449958 453964
      457968 461971 467973 474970 477967 486955 493945 500931
      505919 509902 511884 513870 514859
 0.50 438792 437784 435777 429765 425757 420749 416748 413748
      411750 408759 406766 405776 404787 401796 395811 392820
      390830 389839 387847 381865 375879 368896 365904 363912
      362922 365925 368925 375922 380918 387910 393904 397898
      401889 409874 420861 425853 428844 432825 435807 437797
      438792
 1.00 495877 491872 488870 485871 480876 475884 474892 473903
      474910 475916 478919 481919 486916 490912 491908 493900
      495891 496883 496878 495877
 1.00 427790 422789 415792 408800 404806 402812 399824 398830
      399835 402846 394865 384887 380899 380904 382903 386898
      389894 395884 406865 412855 415845 413840 410840 409839
      411834 413833 415829 420819 423808 426797 427790

$$