FXUS64 KCRP 162240 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 540 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 .UPDATE...WILL MAKE QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS TO JIM WELLS/LIVE OAK/SAN PAT/NUECES COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING AS PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS IN BEE/GOLIAD COUNTIES DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. VERY WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING SENT OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THESE STORMS MAY TRIGGER SOME NEW CONVECTION WITH THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST HAS HELPED TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LACK OF CAP HAVE ALLOWED STORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. WITH LOW FFG VALUES IN THIS AREA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO THE TRAINING ECHOES. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS AN AREA 2 INCH PWATS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE PULLED TOWARD US TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. AS THE TROF DEPARTS...H85 WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL KEEP POPS AT SLGT CHANCE TONIGHT FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS UPPER-LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES. COULD STILL SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE AS WINDS COME UP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL AS SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN BEING OVER THE VICTORIA AREA. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THEN SETS UP OVER THE GULF COAST WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. && .LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGE ACROSS SE U.S. AND NRN GULF BUILDING WEST INTO TEXAS AND NRN MX INTO FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY DRY AND PERSISTENT TEMP FORECAST IN ORDER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. VERY WEAK UPR LVL LOW FORECASTED TO MOVE NW OUT OF BAY OF CAMPECHE TO JUST SOUTH OF BRO FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT. SAT AFTERNOON PWS PROGGED TO INCREASE BACK TO 1.8-1.9" ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. LOW ISOL POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NE COUNTIES. WEAK UPR LVL LOW SHOWN TO LIFT SLOWLY NNE THRU THE NW GULF OF MX...WITH S TX ON WRN SIDE. WILL KEEP SUN AND MON DRY. LONG RANGE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE TUE INTO WED AND S/W TROF MOVING ACROSS TX ON WED. FOR NOW WILL ONLY INSERT ISOL POPS INTO FORECAST FOR DAY SEVEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 93 75 93 74 / 10 10 00 00 00 VICTORIA 73 91 74 93 76 / 20 20 10 05 00 LAREDO 78 102 78 103 78 / 00 00 00 00 00 ALICE 75 96 74 96 74 / 10 10 00 00 00 ROCKPORT 77 90 78 90 78 / 10 20 05 00 00 COTULLA 74 99 74 99 74 / 00 00 00 00 00 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 91