Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 06/19/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SUN JUN 17 2007 .SYNOPSIS... THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND THEN CLEARING BY NOON. MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WARMER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE INTO ALL COASTAL AREAS...MOST SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS AND THE WRN INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING AND CLEARED TO OFFSHORE BY NOON. CLEAR ELSEWHERE. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 2000 FT WITH WLY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH 7-8 MB SAN-IPL. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CAUSE A LITTLE LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH MON...SLOWLY INCREASING TUE AND WED. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TEMPS AND THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH THROUGH TUE WITH STRATUS COVERING THE COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING INTO MOST SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE WRN INLAND EMPIRE BY EARLY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER TUE NIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT GET INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE BUT THERE WILL BE LOCAL FOG OR HAZE. THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS WHERE IT INTERSECTS HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DRY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS IN MOST MON THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER TUE WITH MORE WARMING WED. ONSHORE FLOW TO THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE DESERTS WILL CAUSE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...MAINLY TODAY AND MON. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. && .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THU. THE HIGH ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES PAST TO THE N RESULTING IN GRADUAL COOLING FRI-SUN WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER. && .AVIATION... 172100Z...RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER NEAR 2000 FEET DEEP...BUT THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED OUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 1Z...TO THE COASTAL SITES AT ABOUT 3-5Z AND INLAND AT ABOUT 7-9Z. EXPECT TO SEE CIGS AROUND 1500 AND TOPS AROUND 2000 FEET MSL WITH MOSTLY VFR VIS. SOME MVFR AND LIFR VIZ IS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL SLOPES AND COULD AFFECT ONT AND RNM LATER TONIGHT AS THE STRATUS EXTENDS INLAND. CLEARING MONDAY 16-17Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER IN SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY WEST 15-25 KT...WEAKENING TONIGHT THEN BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT MONDAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...PG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007 .SHORT TERM... STALLING CDFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FM MIE-LAF AND THEN NW ACROSS NE IL THIS AFTN. SCT CONVECTION ALONG FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA ATTM. TAMDAR SOUNDING ANALYSIS NEAR CHICAGO THIS AFTN SUGGESTS AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED WITH CAPES OVER 2KJ/KG. LITTLE FORCING ACROSS THE CWA THOUGH SO FEEL ISOLD EVE POPS STILL A VALID FCST. WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF STRONGER CDFNT APCHG THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. THUS, PRBLY WILL BE LESS CU BUILDUP THAN TODAY. TEMPS IN THE EAST WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH WK WAA AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. SOME CIRRUS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS DURING THE AFTN HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT, STILL ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE IN THE 90S. CONSIDERED ADDING LOW POPS TO THE NW FOR LATE MON AFTN, HWVR, NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO LIFT LEAD SHRTWV NE FM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS OUR AREA SO LEFT DRY FCST IN TACT ATTM. && .LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO EJECT OUT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT...PHASING WITH LINGERING TX DISTURBANCE IN THE PROCESS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG TERM PERIOD...AND SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE WRF/ECMWF/SREF AND GFS. HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT HELPING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO REFLECT SLOWER TREND OF COLD FRONT IN MODELS...A TREND THAT MAKES MUCH SENSE GIVEN THE FACT THAT MAJORITY OF LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN SHARP WIND SHIFT ALONG LL FRONT AND TIGHT PACKING OF POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AT 700 MB EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO BE THE CHOICE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. 12Z WRF DEVELOPS A REALLY NICE LL JET OVER MI MONDAY NIGHT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS PROGGED. THIS COUPLED WITH MU CAPES OF AROUND 1000 JOULES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE ALONG NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS IN FRONTAL ZONE. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE CWA MAY STAY DRY UNTIL EARLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS PROGGING A NORTHEAST STORM MOTION AT 40 KNOTS...MAJORITY OF PRECIP MAY PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA INTO MI. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE PRECIP TRIES TO ENTER THE FA...WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH WHERE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING RESIDES...THEN REDEVELOPS THE NEXT DAY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS REALIZED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF FA...VERY SIMILAR TO JUNE 8TH. HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS THIS WAY GIVEN CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODELS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND IN EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES PROGGED BEHIND COLD FRONT. WRF GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT H925 DISPLAY 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF WIND OVER EASTERN ZONES AT 18Z TUE WITH GOOD LINKAGE TO THE SFC. HAVE INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS. EXPECT COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WED WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE REGION. SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND STALL OVER IA-MO REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED AND MAY BE ABLE TO KICK A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WED AS SFC FRONT IS INDUCED TO MOVE NORTH VIA CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. POCKET OF FORCING/INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY AND MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM GIVEN RETURN FLOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA. PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD PLACING A MEANDERING SFC FRONT OVER THE REGION IN DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD BE A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP IF THIS DOES INDEED PAN OUT. WOULD ALSO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN DISTANCE IN THE FUTURE AND AMPLE QUESTIONS WITH MOISTURE RETURN/SFC FRONT LOCATION/AND DEGREE OF RIDGING IN PLAIN STATES...WILL SHY FROM INTRODUCING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMO WITH TRENDS IN MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE. .AVIATION... STALLED CDFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG A FDY-IKK LINE. WK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT, HWVR, GIVEN WK FORCING STILL FEEL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTION IN TAFS BUT WILL ADD CB TO CLOUD GROUP CONSIDERING EXPECTED FURTHER CONVECTION THIS AFTN. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING RESULTING IN MAINLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO BR/HZ. WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO MI MON MORNING AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF STRONGER CDFNT APCHG FROM THE PLAINS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING IN WARM SECTOR, TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM....CHAMBERLAIN AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS FORT WORTH TX
942 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007 .UPDATE... THINGS ARE QUIET FOR NOW WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A WEAK WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY SPARK SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP SO WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TEMP AND DEWPOINT MODIFICATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS. && .AVIATION... 600 PM/23Z STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...BUILDING CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY EXCEPT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 14G20KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RELAX TO 9-12KT OVERNIGHT. WE/RE PLANNING FOR STRATUS DECK OVER THE TAF SITES 10-14Z...THEN BREAKING UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 400 PM CDT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH SOME FLOODING ISSUES WILL LINGER BEYOND THE END OF THE WATCH...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. ALLOWING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. FEW FLAT CU THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ACARS DATA CORROBORATE THIS FACT...SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CAP. ACC APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MAY APPROACH AREA HIGH CAPE ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. REFRAINED FROM REMOVING POPS FOR NOW...BUT 10 POPS LIKELY A BETTER REPRESENTATION FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. TOWARD END OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST... AND WILL PUT NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ZONE. 25 && .CLIMATE... 400 PM CDT FOR DFW AND WACO...JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THOSE FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER OF 2006. SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTALS (JUNE-AUGUST) 2005 2006 2007* DFW 4.34 2.64 5.73* WACO 7.27 2.91 5.10* * ONLY THROUGH JUNE 18 AT 4 PM CDT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 71 / 20 20 10 20 20 PARIS, TX 71 92 73 93 71 / 40 30 20 20 10 DENTON, TX 73 91 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 73 91 71 94 72 / 30 20 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 76 93 76 94 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 74 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 75 92 74 94 72 / 20 30 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 74 92 74 93 72 / 10 20 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 92/25/06/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007 .AVIATION... 600 PM/23Z STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...BUILDING CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY EXCEPT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 14G20KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RELAX TO 9-12KT OVERNIGHT. WE/RE PLANNING FOR STRATUS DECK OVER THE TAF SITES 10-14Z...THEN BREAKING UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 400 PM CDT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH SOME FLOODING ISSUES WILL LINGER BEYOND THE END OF THE WATCH...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. ALLOWING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. FEW FLAT CU THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ACARS DATA CORROBORATE THIS FACT...SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CAP. ACC APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MAY APPROACH AREA HIGH CAPE ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. REFRAINED FROM REMOVING POPS FOR NOW...BUT 10 POPS LIKELY A BETTER REPRESENTATION FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. TOWARD END OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST... AND WILL PUT NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ZONE. 25 && .CLIMATE... 400 PM CDT FOR DFW AND WACO...JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THOSE FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER OF 2006. SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTALS (JUNE-AUGUST) 2005 2006 2007* DFW 4.34 2.64 5.73* WACO 7.27 2.91 5.10* * ONLY THROUGH JUNE 18 AT 4 PM CDT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 71 / 20 20 10 20 20 PARIS, TX 71 92 73 93 71 / 40 30 20 20 10 DENTON, TX 73 91 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 73 91 71 94 72 / 30 20 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 76 93 76 94 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 74 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 75 92 74 94 72 / 20 30 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 74 92 74 93 72 / 10 20 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 92/25/06/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007 .DISCUSSION... 400 PM CDT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH SOME FLOODING ISSUES WILL LINGER BEYOND THE END OF THE WATCH...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. ALLOWING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. FEW FLAT CU THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ACARS DATA CORROBORATE THIS FACT...SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CAP. ACC APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MAY APPROACH AREA HIGH CAPE ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. REFRAINED FROM REMOVING POPS FOR NOW...BUT 10 POPS LIKELY A BETTER REPRESENTATION FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. TOWARD END OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST... AND WILL PUT NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ZONE. 25 && .CLIMATE... 400 PM CDT FOR DFW AND WACO...JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THOSE FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER OF 2006. SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTALS (JUNE-AUGUST) 2005 2006 2007* DFW 4.34 2.64 5.73* WACO 7.27 2.91 5.10* * ONLY THROUGH JUNE 18 AT 4 PM CDT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 71 / 20 20 10 20 20 PARIS, TX 71 92 73 93 71 / 40 30 20 20 10 DENTON, TX 73 91 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 73 91 71 94 72 / 30 20 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 76 93 76 94 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 74 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 75 92 74 94 72 / 20 30 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 74 92 74 93 72 / 10 20 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 92/25/06/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. && .DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY... PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL RUNNING NEAR THE SAME, THE STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY THE SAME, THE SURFACE WINDS ARE NEARLY THE SAME, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 500MB TEMPS MAY HAVE EVEN COOLED SOME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY). FROM MY PERSPECTIVE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY REASON TO EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY TODAY THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LARGELY UNCAPPED BY AFTERNOON. SO WENT WELL OVER GUIDANCE AND KEPT POPS NEARLY THE SAME AS ON MONDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WITH THE STEERING FLOW SO SLOW AND THE SURFACE WINDS SO WEAK ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY STILL CREATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE COAST. VIRTUALLY THE SAME SCENARIO FOR THE WEST COAST AS WELL, BUT WITH THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SLOW SOUTH SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION TODAY THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ITS EAST COAST COUNTERPART. THIS STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AND ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH DAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION STEMS FROM THE PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE LOW AND TROUGH AROUND WITH MOST RUNS, BUT IF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, POP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE ALREADY IN PLACE UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY IN PLACE SURFACE TROUGH. && .AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALLOW VCTS ALL TERMINALS WITH A CONCENTRATION OF TSRA AGAIN TOWARD THE SE COAST AS WHAT STEERING WINDS THERE ARE SENDS TSRA MAINLY TOWARD KFLL...KFXE...KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB PRIMARILY. && .MARINE...A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AT OR BELOW 4 FEET TROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY MARINERS CAN EXPECT TH POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 60 20 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 88 75 / 50 20 50 30 MIAMI 88 75 89 74 / 60 20 50 30 NAPLES 91 73 90 74 / 50 30 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...04/TINGLER SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007 .AVIATION... LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING AS KDFW AND KACT TRACONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT BETWEEN 10-16Z WHEN A STRATUS DECK (BKN-OVC 013-018) WILL PREVAIL. 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF KDFW TUESDAY GENERALLY 19-23Z...NIL FOR KACT. 75 && .UPDATE... 942 PM. THINGS ARE QUIET FOR NOW WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A WEAK WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY SPARK SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP SO WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TEMP AND DEWPOINT MODIFICATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS. && .AVIATION... 600 PM/23Z STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...BUILDING CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY EXCEPT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 14G20KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RELAX TO 9-12KT OVERNIGHT. WE/RE PLANNING FOR STRATUS DECK OVER THE TAF SITES 10-14Z...THEN BREAKING UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 400 PM CDT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ACTIVITY IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH SOME FLOODING ISSUES WILL LINGER BEYOND THE END OF THE WATCH...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. ALLOWING FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE ON TIME. FEW FLAT CU THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ACARS DATA CORROBORATE THIS FACT...SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING CAP. ACC APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MAY APPROACH AREA HIGH CAPE ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. REFRAINED FROM REMOVING POPS FOR NOW...BUT 10 POPS LIKELY A BETTER REPRESENTATION FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. TOWARD END OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST... AND WILL PUT NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ZONE. 25 && .CLIMATE... 400 PM CDT FOR DFW AND WACO...JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THOSE FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER OF 2006. SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTALS (JUNE-AUGUST) 2005 2006 2007* DFW 4.34 2.64 5.73* WACO 7.27 2.91 5.10* * ONLY THROUGH JUNE 18 AT 4 PM CDT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 93 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 WACO, TX 74 93 74 93 71 / 20 20 10 20 20 PARIS, TX 71 92 73 93 71 / 40 30 20 20 10 DENTON, TX 73 91 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 73 91 71 94 72 / 30 20 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 76 93 76 94 75 / 20 20 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 74 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 75 92 74 94 72 / 20 30 20 30 20 TEMPLE, TX 74 92 74 93 72 / 10 20 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 92/25/06/21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER INLAND AREAS. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COASTS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MINOR COOLING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY JUNE 21 AT 1106 AM PDT. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH HEIGHTS +5960 METERS BY THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKEN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. CROSS SECTIONS...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED SHRINK MARINE LAYER TO 1000-13000 FEET TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND 500-800 FEET THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL AND EXPECT NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY 500 MB RIDGE STILL ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS +5880 METERS. BY MONDAY WEAK TROUGH OFF BAJA COAST AND 500 MB HIGH CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO FOUR CORNERS AREA SET UP PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS PREMATURE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER...MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY. WILL LOOK AT 12Z RUN OF GFS AND SEE IF 850-700 MB FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. IF SO WILL INCLUDE POPS ON THIS DAY AND MAY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION... 191400Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING BASED ON MORNING TOP REPORTS AND MDCRS SOUNDINGS. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SHORELINE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. SOME STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK ONTO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z THEN PUSH BACK INLAND THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET REACHING THE LOWER INLAND VALLEY AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INLAND EMPIRE NEAR KONT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLIER CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG DRYING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FELL BELOW 10 PERCENT AROUND 3 AM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS DUE TO MIXING TODAY WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AGAIN TONIGHT ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF HUMIDITY ABOVE 25 PERCENT FORECAST. JUST AS DRY OR DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A LOWERING MARINE LAYER...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...WITH NO INCREASE IN MOISTURE. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .UPDATE...12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THIS MORNING...AND SFC OBS INDICATE DEWPOINTS CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. CHANCES ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST SINCE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH SOME WAYS INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST HOW FAR IS UNCERTAIN. STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD DRIFT SSW. THIS MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DEPENDS ON WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY BEGIN DEVELOPING. AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN METRO AREAS BEFORE MOVING TO THE SSW AWAY FROM THEM. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER THESE AREAS TO CHANCE POPS FROM LIKELY DUE TO THE STORM MOTIONS BEING MAINLY AWAY FROM THE METRO AREAS TODAY. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND...WITH THE NNE STORM MOTION ALLOWING STORMS TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. .AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...BUT HOW FAR INLAND REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS/KMIA/KOPF/KFXE WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD DRIFT SSW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF KAPF BUT THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. STRASSBERG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007/ SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY... PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL RUNNING NEAR THE SAME, THE STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY THE SAME, THE SURFACE WINDS ARE NEARLY THE SAME, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 500MB TEMPS MAY HAVE EVEN COOLED SOME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY). FROM MY PERSPECTIVE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY REASON TO EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVITY TODAY THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LARGELY UNCAPPED BY AFTERNOON. SO WENT WELL OVER GUIDANCE AND KEPT POPS NEARLY THE SAME AS ON MONDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WITH THE STEERING FLOW SO SLOW AND THE SURFACE WINDS SO WEAK ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY STILL CREATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE COAST. VIRTUALLY THE SAME SCENARIO FOR THE WEST COAST AS WELL, BUT WITH THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SLOW SOUTH SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION TODAY THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ITS EAST COAST COUNTERPART. THIS STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AND ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH DAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION STEMS FROM THE PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE LOW AND TROUGH AROUND WITH MOST RUNS, BUT IF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, POP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE ALREADY IN PLACE UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY IN PLACE SURFACE TROUGH. AVIATION...VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALLOW VCTS ALL TERMINALS WITH A CONCENTRATION OF TSRA AGAIN TOWARD THE SE COAST AS WHAT STEERING WINDS THERE ARE SENDS TSRA MAINLY TOWARD KFLL...KFXE...KOPF...KMIA AND KTMB PRIMARILY. MARINE...A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AT OR BELOW 4 FEET TROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY MARINERS CAN EXPECT TH POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 89 75 / 40 20 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 88 75 / 40 20 50 30 MIAMI 88 75 89 74 / 50 20 50 30 NAPLES 91 73 90 74 / 50 30 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...04/AT SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
215 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE INLAND AREAS. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COASTS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MINOR COOLING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY JUNE 21 AT 1106 AM PDT. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH HEIGHTS +5960 METERS BY THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKEN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. CROSS SECTIONS...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED SHRINK MARINE LAYER TO 1000-1300 FEET TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND 500-800 FEET THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL AND PROBABLY TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BEYOND DAY 2. EXPECT NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER LOWER DESERTS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY 500 MB RIDGE STILL ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS +5880 METERS...SO DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE WARM AND VERY DRY. BY MONDAY WEAK TROUGH OFF BAJA COAST AND 500 MB HIGH CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO FOUR CORNERS AREA SET UP PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS PREMATURE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...OVER MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 12Z RUN OF GFS HAS FAVORABLE 850-700 MB FLOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING UP OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BUT VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS SHOW K VALUES IN THE MID 20S AND DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS SO INCLUDED CHANCE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THESE AREAS. && .AVIATION... 191930Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 1200 FEET NEAR KSAN AND TO LESS THAN 800 FEET NEAR KSNA SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MARINE LAYER MAY SHOW SOME RECOVERY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1500 FEET. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FEET MSL WAS WELL OFF THE COAST BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH BACK ONTO THE SHORELINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 23Z THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER INLAND VALLEY AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...AFTER 04Z. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE KONT AREA TONIGHT BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE. EARLIER CLEARING OF THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS SCATTERING OUT BY 16Z. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG DRYING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FELL BELOW 10 PERCENT AROUND 3 AM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS DUE TO MIXING TODAY WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AGAIN TONIGHT ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF HUMIDITY ABOVE 25 PERCENT FORECAST. JUST AS DRY OR DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A LOWERING MARINE LAYER...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...WITH NO INCREASE IN MOISTURE. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER INLAND AREAS. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COASTS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. MINOR COOLING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY JUNE 21 AT 1106 AM PDT. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH HEIGHTS +5960 METERS BY THURSDAY AND THEN WEAKEN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY...5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. CROSS SECTIONS...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED SHRINK MARINE LAYER TO 1000-13000 FEET TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND 500-800 FEET THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL AND EXPECT NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CORRECTED 500 MB RIDGE STILL ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS +5880 METERS. BY MONDAY WEAK TROUGH OFF BAJA COAST AND 500 MB HIGH CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO FOUR CORNERS AREA SET UP PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS PREMATURE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...OVER MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL LOOK AT 12Z RUN OF GFS AND SEE IF 850-700 MB FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IF SO MAY INCLUDE MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... 191400Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING BASED ON MORNING TOP REPORTS AND MDCRS SOUNDINGS. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SHORELINE BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. SOME STRATUS WILL PUSH BACK ONTO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z THEN PUSH BACK INLAND THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET REACHING THE LOWER INLAND VALLEY AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE INLAND EMPIRE NEAR KONT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLIER CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG DRYING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FELL BELOW 10 PERCENT AROUND 3 AM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS DUE TO MIXING TODAY WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AGAIN TONIGHT ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF HUMIDITY ABOVE 25 PERCENT FORECAST. JUST AS DRY OR DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A LOWERING MARINE LAYER...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...WITH NO INCREASE IN MOISTURE. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007 .DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SEA BREEZE HAS MADE PROGRESS FAIRLY FAR INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LIES ACROSS THE EVERGLADES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES...WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. STORM MOTION IS SLOW ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT. OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED TODAY...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL WARMING SEEN ON ACARS SOUNDING DATA...AND A SLIGHT DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE. A DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALLOWING TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS ALABAMA MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING SOMEWHAT AS TO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS SOME OF THE MODELS...00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN AND 12Z GFS MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE 00Z/06Z GFS...LAST FEW NAM RUNS...AND 00Z UKMET DROP THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR THE NE GULF OF MEXICO/CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THIS VICINITY. THE NEW/12Z GFS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN ALL OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS THE LAST FEW DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM TRACKS...IT`S REASONABLE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH LIKE FEATURE WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA VERY SLOWLY LATER THIS WEEK/THIS WEEKEND WITH GENERAL WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR/EAST COAST AREAS AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND THEN DRIFT E/NE. SFC/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY SW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL HEAVILY FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EVERGLADES AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE NOT BROUGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY YET ON THURSDAY UNTIL EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS RESOLVED. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL START FIRING SOON INLAND, ALTHOUGH LATER THAN YESTERDAY. WHEN THIS ACTIVITY MEETS UP WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST UNTIL EARLY EVENING POSSIBLY MISSING NAPLES AS THE FLOW IS TO THE SSW. && .MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES...WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO S/SE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KNOTS/3 FEET ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF SURFACE TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH`S ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 74 88 74 88 / 20 40 30 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 75 87 / 20 40 30 50 MIAMI 74 89 74 89 / 20 40 30 50 NAPLES 73 88 73 87 / 30 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION: GR REST: STRASSBERG