000
FXUS62 KMFL 161127
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009
.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE AT EAST COAST TERMINALS
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL MIXING CAN OCCUR AND SCATTER
THINGS OUT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG BUT VERY LOW CIGS BLO
500FT ARE POSSIBLE. SEA FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN
OFF AT KAPF. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE SHIFTS WINDS NE AT E CST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAND BREEZE WITH SHIFT TO NW MOST OF
THESE SITES TONIGHT.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS LIMITED FORMATION OF FOG
ACROSS THE MAINLAND...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10Z...AS
PHONE CALLS STILL INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LINGERING FOG
IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
BOUNDARY OVER THE MAINLAND...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL
SUGGEST THAT THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MID- LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS INDUCES STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PRESS STEADILY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10-16Z...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. INFLUENCE OF
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES...INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT PRESIDENTS DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 40F ACROSS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
TONIGHT...WITH FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PIVOT AROUND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMBINING WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF COAST OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC...TO BRING A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PHASE WITH A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAINING STEADY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...RESULTING IN A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BASED ON MEX
GUIDANCE FOR KPGD AND EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO AT LEAST THE
UPPER 30S OVER GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THIS CATEGORY UNTIL THERE IS CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW OR CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND USHERING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE U.S. BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS SUNDAY...AND THE
SECOND AIRMASS MAY VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THE FIRST...BUT WILL
MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED MOS AT THIS TIME...AS THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING...USHERING A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION AND ENDING THREAT FOR FOG. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC
AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE...WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR
REMAINDER OF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECLINE FROM
PEAK OF 8-9 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
LATE TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO EAST.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD
FRONT...SCHEDULED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS FRONT...BUT PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER GULF STREAM WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM TOMORROW...AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 54 71 58 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 58 73 61 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 77 59 73 60 / 10 - - -
NAPLES 75 50 75 54 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ075.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 160918
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS LIMITED FORMATION OF FOG
ACROSS THE MAINLAND...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
LOCAL GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10Z...AS
PHONE CALLS STILL INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LINGERING FOG
IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
BOUNDARY OVER THE MAINLAND...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING OVER THE GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL
SUGGEST THAT THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MID- LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS INDUCES STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PRESS STEADILY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10-16Z...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. INFLUENCE OF
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES...INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT PRESIDENTS DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 40F ACROSS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
TONIGHT...WITH FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL PIVOT AROUND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE A DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMBINING WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF COAST OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC...TO BRING A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PHASE WITH A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAINING STEADY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...RESULTING IN A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BASED ON MEX
GUIDANCE FOR KPGD AND EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO AT LEAST THE
UPPER 30S OVER GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THIS CATEGORY UNTIL THERE IS CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
LOWERING TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW OR CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND USHERING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE U.S. BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS SUNDAY...AND THE
SECOND AIRMASS MAY VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THE FIRST...BUT WILL
MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED MOS AT THIS TIME...AS THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL MAINTAIN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z.
OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING...USHERING A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION AND ENDING THREAT FOR FOG. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC
AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE...WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR
REMAINDER OF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECLINE FROM
PEAK OF 8-9 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
LATE TUESDAY AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO EAST.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD
FRONT...SCHEDULED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS FRONT...BUT PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER GULF STREAM WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM TOMORROW...AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 54 71 58 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 58 73 61 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 77 59 73 60 / 10 - - -
NAPLES 75 50 75 54 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069-
FLZ075.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 160545
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS AND SOME STRATUS CONTINUES TO PRESS SE ACROSS SOUTH FL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE
WITH SOME IFR CIGS IN AREAS AND JUST BROKEN MID CLOUDS AROUND 12K
FT IN OTHER AREAS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT NEEDLESS TO SAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR KTMB AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS. VSBY/CIG CONCERNS CONTINUE
AT KAPF DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND FOGGY CONDITIONS STILL BEING
REPORTED DESPITE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING THIS SHOULD BE TOUGH TO BREAK OUT OF OVERNIGHT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENTS ARE PSBL TOWARDS SUNRISE AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES GULF WATERS AND WESTERN COAST THROUGH 6Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITION TO START OFF WITH, THEN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS. FRONT SHOULD PASS KPBI BY 04Z AND KMIA BY 08Z. KAPF IS
A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH LESS SEA FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT IS
NOW EXPANDING EAST AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE PREFRONTAL CLOUDS
GET TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BEFORE THE FOG GETS THICK. HAVE OPTED TO
GO TEMPO 01Z TO 05Z FOR 500`/1SM IN FOG AND THEN MVFR JUST BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. AFTER 14Z, CLEARING SKIES AND NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRNT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. JUICY SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN INTERIOR/WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHWRS, WILL
EXPECT FOG TO LAST ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME AND NOT BE AS DENSE NOR
WIDESPREAD AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WL EXPECT FROPA ACROSS MIA BY
12Z MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND
IT. IT SEEMS MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA (LAKE OKEE/PALM BEACH
COUNTY) TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN WL EXPECT ONLY LOW SCT POPS. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH OVER ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO EAST/SE
BY WED AND TO S/SW BY THU AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER (SLIGHTLY STRONGER)
COLD FNT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR
MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THU. NEXT FRONT SHOULD MARCH RIGHT ON AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH/SFC FRNT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THUS PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH
SUN.
MARINE...AS INDICATED ABOVE, SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NW/N AND
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE E/SE WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER...LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST FRONT RESULTING IN RH VALUES DESCENDING TO CRITICAL LVLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH COULD REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT
FOR FEW HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
AND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVR NRN PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. A
RETURN SE TO SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP
RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 55 74 59 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 58 73 59 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 78 58 76 61 / 10 - - -
NAPLES 75 50 74 54 / 10 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069-
FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 160136
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES GULF WATERS AND WESTERN COAST THROUGH 6Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITION TO START OFF WITH, THEN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS. FRONT SHOULD PASS KPBI BY 04Z AND KMIA BY 08Z. KAPF IS
A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH LESS SEA FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT IS
NOW EXPANDING EAST AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE PREFRONTAL CLOUDS
GET TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BEFORE THE FOG GETS THICK. HAVE OPTED TO
GO TEMPO 01Z TO 05Z FOR 500`/1SM IN FOG AND THEN MVFR JUST BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. AFTER 14Z, CLEARING SKIES AND NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRNT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. JUICY SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN INTERIOR/WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHWRS, WILL
EXPECT FOG TO LAST ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME AND NOT BE AS DENSE NOR
WIDESPREAD AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WL EXPECT FROPA ACROSS MIA BY
12Z MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND
IT. IT SEEMS MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA (LAKE OKEE/PALM BEACH
COUNTY) TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN WL EXPECT ONLY LOW SCT POPS. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH OVER ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO EAST/SE
BY WED AND TO S/SW BY THU AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER (SLIGHTLY STRONGER)
COLD FNT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR
MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THU. NEXT FRONT SHOULD MARCH RIGHT ON AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH/SFC FRNT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THUS PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH
SUN.
MARINE...AS INDICATED ABOVE, SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NW/N AND
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE E/SE WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER...LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST FRONT RESULTING IN RH VALUES DESCENDING TO CRITICAL LVLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH COULD REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT
FOR FEW HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
AND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVR NRN PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. A
RETURN SE TO SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP
RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 76 55 74 / 30 10 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 77 58 73 / 20 10 - -
MIAMI 62 78 58 76 / 10 10 - -
NAPLES 61 75 50 74 / 20 10 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ069-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 152347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.UPDATE...VFR CONDITION TO START OFF WITH, THEN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS. FRONT SHOULD PASS KPBI BY 04Z AND KMIA BY 08Z. KAPF IS
A LITTLE TRICKIER WITH LESS SEA FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT IS
NOW EXPANDING EAST AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE PREFRONTAL CLOUDS
GET TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BEFORE THE FOG GETS THICK. HAVE OPTED TO
GO TEMPO 01Z TO 05Z FOR 500`/1SM IN FOG AND THEN MVFR JUST BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. AFTER 14Z, CLEARING SKIES AND NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRNT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. JUICY SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN INTERIOR/WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHWRS, WILL
EXPECT FOG TO LAST ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME AND NOT BE AS DENSE NOR
WIDESPREAD AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WL EXPECT FROPA ACROSS MIA BY
12Z MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND
IT. IT SEEMS MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA (LAKE OKEE/PALM BEACH
COUNTY) TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN WL EXPECT ONLY LOW SCT POPS. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH OVER ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO EAST/SE
BY WED AND TO S/SW BY THU AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER (SLIGHTLY STRONGER)
COLD FNT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR
MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THU. NEXT FRONT SHOULD MARCH RIGHT ON AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH/SFC FRNT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THUS PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH
SUN.
MARINE...AS INDICATED ABOVE, SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NW/N AND
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE E/SE WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER...LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST FRONT RESULTING IN RH VALUES DESCENDING TO CRITICAL LVLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH COULD REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT
FOR FEW HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
AND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVR NRN PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. A
RETURN SE TO SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP
RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 76 55 74 / 30 10 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 77 58 73 / 20 10 - -
MIAMI 62 78 58 76 / 10 10 - -
NAPLES 61 75 50 74 / 20 10 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151915
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRNT ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. JUICY SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN INTERIOR/WEST COAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHWRS, WILL
EXPECT FOG TO LAST ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME AND NOT BE AS DENSE NOR
WIDESPREAD AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WL EXPECT FROPA ACROSS MIA BY
12Z MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND INCREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND
IT. IT SEEMS MOST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA (LAKE OKEE/PALM BEACH
COUNTY) TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN WL EXPECT ONLY LOW SCT POPS. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH OVER ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST WITH LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTING TO EAST/SE
BY WED AND TO S/SW BY THU AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER (SLIGHTLY STRONGER)
COLD FNT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR
MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THU. NEXT FRONT SHOULD MARCH RIGHT ON AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS ERN U.S. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH/SFC FRNT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THUS PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI THROUGH
SUN.
.MARINE...AS INDICATED ABOVE, SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NW/N AND
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE E/SE WEDNESDAY BUT BECOME MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
FIRST FRONT RESULTING IN RH VALUES DESCENDING TO CRITICAL LVLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH COULD REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT
FOR FEW HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES
AND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVR NRN PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. A
RETURN SE TO SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP
RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 76 55 74 / 30 10 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 77 58 73 / 20 10 - -
MIAMI 62 78 58 76 / 10 10 - -
NAPLES 61 75 50 74 / 20 10 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...15/JR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151641
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1141 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.AVIATION...VFR E CST TERMINALS THRU 04Z THOUGH ISOLD VCSH PSBL
18Z TO 00Z. WK CD FNT MOVG INTO S FLA AFT 06Z MAY DVLP ISOLD SHRA/
LGT RA BUT ALSO MVFR CIGS ESPCLLY IF UPR CLD COVER PREVENTS DNS
FOG FM DVLPG. AT KAPF...SEA FOG XPCTD TO MOVE ONSHR IN WSW WND FLOW
DVLPG AHD OF COLD FRONT. MVFR CIG RPDLY BCMG IFR WITH VSBY MVFR
AT BEST. WITH FNT PASSING ARND 09Z...CIG AND VSBY GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. ISOLD SHRA INVOF KAPF 03Z TO 09Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
UPDATE...UPDATED TO ALLOW BOTH, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVER AND GULF
WATERS/LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO EXPIRE. SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATED IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WILL STILL KEEP PATCHY FOG
OVER THE GULF OF MEX WATERS THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE STILL ON TRACK.
......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH DENSE FOG IN MANY
AREAS. FOG WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BURN
OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHRA MAY IMPACT EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND MID DAY/THIS AFTERNOON. W
COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING FOG BACK INTO KAPF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANCE FOR FOG OTHER TERMINALS AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH STRATUS DECK THAT MOVED INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY EVENING NOW BUILDING DOWN
AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE EAST
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN THE EVERGLADES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS...BY MID-MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...AND PRESENCE
OF WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT
FRONT TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE APF-PBI CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...WITH
SHOWER THREAT CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW.
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHEAST...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA IS STILL ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERN THIS
MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST
FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC/GULF
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH 15-20 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED ON THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET...GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF HIGH WINDS
AND FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 35-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 62 74 55 / 20 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 64 76 59 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 81 64 77 58 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 78 62 76 52 / 10 30 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151510 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ALLOW BOTH, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OVER AND GULF
WATERS/LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO EXPIRE. SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATED IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WILL STILL KEEP PATCHY FOG
OVER THE GULF OF MEX WATERS THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE STILL ON TRACK.
.......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH DENSE FOG IN MANY
AREAS. FOG WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BURN
OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHRA MAY IMPACT EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND MID DAY/THIS AFTERNOON. W
COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING FOG BACK INTO KAPF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANCE FOR FOG OTHER TERMINALS AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH STRATUS DECK THAT MOVED INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY EVENING NOW BUILDING DOWN
AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE EAST
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN THE EVERGLADES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS...BY MID-MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...AND PRESENCE
OF WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT
FRONT TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE APF-PBI CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...WITH
SHOWER THREAT CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW.
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHEAST...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA IS STILL ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERN THIS
MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST
FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC/GULF
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH 15-20 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED ON THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET...GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF HIGH WINDS
AND FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 35-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 62 74 55 / 20 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 64 76 59 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 81 64 77 58 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 78 62 76 52 / 10 30 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151124
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
624 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH DENSE FOG IN MANY
AREAS. FOG WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BURN
OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHRA MAY IMPACT EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND MID DAY/THIS AFTERNOON. W
COAST SEA BREEZE COULD BRING FOG BACK INTO KAPF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CHANCE FOR FOG OTHER TERMINALS AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH STRATUS DECK THAT MOVED INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY EVENING NOW BUILDING DOWN
AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE EAST
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN THE EVERGLADES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS...BY MID-MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...AND PRESENCE
OF WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT
FRONT TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE APF-PBI CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...WITH
SHOWER THREAT CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW.
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHEAST...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA IS STILL ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERN THIS
MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST
FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC/GULF
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH 15-20 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED ON THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET...GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF HIGH WINDS
AND FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 35-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 62 74 55 / 20 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 64 76 59 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 81 64 77 58 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 78 62 76 52 / 10 30 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151026
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
526 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH STRATUS DECK THAT MOVED INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY EVENING NOW BUILDING DOWN
AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE EAST
COAST...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN THE EVERGLADES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS...BY MID-MORNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY...AND PRESENCE
OF WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT APPROACHING REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT
FRONT TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE APF-PBI CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z
MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...WITH
SHOWER THREAT CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ATLANTIC WATERS DURING TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW.
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHEAST...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA IS STILL ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT AND A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERN THIS
MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST
FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC/GULF
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH 15-20 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED ON THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET...GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF HIGH WINDS
AND FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR MARINE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 35-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WILL COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONGER FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 62 74 55 / 20 30 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 64 76 59 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 81 64 77 58 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 78 62 76 52 / 10 30 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 150549
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1249 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009
.AVIATION...
THICK AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BEING COMPLICATED BY SMOKE
ENTRAINED IN THE LAYER FROM PRESCRIBED FIRES EARLIER TODAY. THIS
LAYER WILL APPROACH E CST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOW
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING...BUT JUST HOW LOW IS IN QUESTION DUE TO
PRESENCE OF LEFT OVER MID CLDS. AMD NOT SKED FOR KAPF ONCE AGAIN
DUE TO ISSUES WITH VSBY SENSOR. AFTN SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW SHRA EAST CST TODAY.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 15Z. ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR INLAND
COLLIER...GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO OF
MVFR IN VSBYS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z, EXCEPT FOR KTMP WHICH HAS IFR
CONDITIONS BY 08Z AND TEMPO LIFR BTWN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT FOR KAPF, THE
SEA FOG HAS ROLLED IN EARLIER TODAY AND THEY ARE 200` AND A HALF
MILE. FCSTG 100` AND 1/4 MI BY 01Z AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THRU THE
NIGHT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. SEABREEZES EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTN AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. PLACED VCSH FOR KPBI IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT BY MID AFTN. 18/GR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVR NRN GULF STATES SHOULD SLIDE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LVL
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION. WL INDICATE PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS GOING DENSE BY SUN MORNING BUT WL NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVR THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT WL GIVE A PUSH TO THE FRNT
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE THROUGH S. FLORIDA MON MORNING. WL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EVEN THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS (NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES) THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SUCCESSION OF MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WED/THU. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. GFS SHOWS LOW LVL THICKNESS (1000-800 MB)
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1335 AND 1350 METERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID 40S NRN
INTERIOR TO L 50S WEST COAST AND M/U 50S EAST COAST LIKEWISE MAX
TEMPS REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE (L/M 70S BOTH FRI AND SAT).
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. ONLY POSSIBLE HAZARDS COULD BE DENSE
FOG OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEX WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM
SHOULD DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NW/N AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET MON EVENING THROUGH TUE.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH
AFTER THE COLD FRNT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...RH VALUES SHOULD
BASICALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWEST RH VALUES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED TUE AFTERNOON WHERE THE COULD FALL AS LOW AS 38 % FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 61 75 56 / 20 20 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 63 77 58 / 10 10 - -
MIAMI 84 63 78 60 / 10 10 - -
NAPLES 76 62 75 53 / 20 20 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KMFL 150045
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 15Z. ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR INLAND
COLLIER...GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO OF
MVFR IN VSBYS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z, EXCEPT FOR KTMP WHICH HAS IFR
CONDITIONS BY 08Z AND TEMPO LIFR BTWN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT FOR KAPF, THE
SEA FOG HAS ROLLED IN EARLIER TODAY AND THEY ARE 200` AND A HALF
MILE. FCSTG 100` AND 1/4 MI BY 01Z AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THRU THE
NIGHT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. SEABREEZES EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTN AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. PLACED VCSH FOR KPBI IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT BY MID AFTN. 18/GR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVR NRN GULF STATES SHOULD SLIDE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LVL
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION. WL INDICATE PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS GOING DENSE BY SUN MORNING BUT WL NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVR THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT WL GIVE A PUSH TO THE FRNT
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE THROUGH S. FLORIDA MON MORNING. WL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EVEN THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS (NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES) THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SUCCESSION OF MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WED/THU. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. GFS SHOWS LOW LVL THICKNESS (1000-800 MB)
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1335 AND 1350 METERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID 40S NRN
INTERIOR TO L 50S WEST COAST AND M/U 50S EAST COAST LIKEWISE MAX
TEMPS REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE (L/M 70S BOTH FRI AND SAT).
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. ONLY POSSIBLE HAZARDS COULD BE DENSE
FOG OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEX WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM
SHOULD DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NW/N AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET MON EVENING THROUGH TUE.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH
AFTER THE COLD FRNT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...RH VALUES SHOULD
BASICALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWEST RH VALUES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED TUE AFTERNOON WHERE THE COULD FALL AS LOW AS 38 % FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 83 61 75 / 10 20 20 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 77 / 10 10 10 -
MIAMI 64 84 63 78 / 10 10 10 -
NAPLES 61 76 62 75 / 0 20 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 150000
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO OF
MVFR IN VSBYS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z, EXCEPT FOR KTMP WHICH HAS IFR
CONDITIONS BY 08Z AND TEMPO LIFR BTWN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT FOR KAPF, THE
SEA FOG HAS ROLLED IN EARLIER TODAY AND THEY ARE 200` AND A HALF
MILE. FCSTG 100` AND 1/4 MI BY 01Z AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THRU THE
NIGHT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. SEABREEZES EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTN AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS. PLACED VCSH FOR KPBI IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT BY MID AFTN. 18/GR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVR NRN GULF STATES SHOULD SLIDE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LVL
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION. WL INDICATE PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS GOING DENSE BY SUN MORNING BUT WL NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVR THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT WL GIVE A PUSH TO THE FRNT
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE THROUGH S. FLORIDA MON MORNING. WL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EVEN THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS (NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES) THROUGH MID WEEK.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SUCCESSION OF MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WED/THU. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. GFS SHOWS LOW LVL THICKNESS (1000-800 MB)
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1335 AND 1350 METERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID 40S NRN
INTERIOR TO L 50S WEST COAST AND M/U 50S EAST COAST LIKEWISE MAX
TEMPS REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE (L/M 70S BOTH FRI AND SAT).
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. ONLY POSSIBLE HAZARDS COULD BE DENSE
FOG OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEX WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM
SHOULD DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NW/N AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET MON EVENING THROUGH TUE.
FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH
AFTER THE COLD FRNT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...RH VALUES SHOULD
BASICALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWEST RH VALUES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED TUE AFTERNOON WHERE THE COULD FALL AS LOW AS 38 % FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 83 61 75 / 10 20 20 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 77 / 10 10 10 -
MIAMI 64 84 63 78 / 10 10 10 -
NAPLES 61 76 62 75 / 0 20 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141928
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVR NRN GULF STATES SHOULD SLIDE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUN
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LVL
MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION. WL INDICATE PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS GOING DENSE BY SUN MORNING BUT WL NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE OVR THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT WL GIVE A PUSH TO THE FRNT
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE THROUGH S. FLORIDA MON MORNING. WL INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EVEN THAT WILL
BE A STRETCH. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS (NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES) THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SUCCESSION OF MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WED/THU. THIS WILL
HELP PUSH AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING. GFS SHOWS LOW LVL THICKNESS (1000-800 MB)
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1335 AND 1350 METERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING MIN TEMPS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM MID 40S NRN
INTERIOR TO L 50S WEST COAST AND M/U 50S EAST COAST LIKEWISE MAX
TEMPS REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE (L/M 70S BOTH FRI AND SAT).
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH MON MORNING. ONLY POSSIBLE HAZARDS COULD BE DENSE
FOG OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEX WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF STREAM
SHOULD DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NW/N AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET MON EVENING THROUGH TUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH
AFTER THE COLD FRNT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...RH VALUES SHOULD
BASICALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LOWEST RH VALUES COULD BE
EXPERIENCED TUE AFTERNOON WHERE THE COULD FALL AS LOW AS 38 % FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 83 61 75 / 10 20 20 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 77 / - 10 10 -
MIAMI 64 84 63 78 / - 10 10 -
NAPLES 61 76 62 75 / 10 20 20 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TIME/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141805
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SEA FOG
OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR
TERMINAL APF...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CLOUD DECK OFF SHORE
INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG BUT NOT AS DENSE AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
VIS AND CEILINGS. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...FORECAST IS
FOR MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. FOR THE EAST COAST SITES PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AT
TERMINALS FXE AND TMB ASSOCIATED WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH A SEA BREEZE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...52/PS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141431 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.UPDATE...DID JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING PACKAGE TO EXPIRE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR AND WEST, AS WELL AS, LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND GULF OF MEX WATERS. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE
CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH VIS GREATER THAN A
QUARTER OF A MILE OVERLAND AND GREATER THAN A MILE OVER WATER. REST
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.
...........................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FOG MAY BE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFTING AT
KAPF BUT NOT SOUNDING THE ALL CLEAR YET AS FOG TENDS TO REFORM
AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SMALL CHANCE LIGHT WESTERLY SEA BREEZE
COULD CARRY FOG BACK TO COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG
BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A BANK OF
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES ALL OF OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND HAS
SPREAD INLAND OVER COASTAL COLLIER/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS...AND WILL
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE EVENT THAT ADVISORY SHOULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN AXIS OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OVERALL...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
FRIDAY TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE A
PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
70S AS FOG GRADUALLY LIFTS ALONG THE GULF COAST. SHOWER THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10
POP ALONG EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
PRESENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WILL WEAKEN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ERODE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS...WITH
DIURNAL MIXING PROCESSES RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OFF SHORE...WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST. RECORD HIGHS OF 86F AND 87F WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AT
MIA/PBI RESPECTIVELY...WITH RECORD OF 89F AT FLL A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. UNFAVORABLE TIMING WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY LATE
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. A DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE NOT BEGINNING TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO
SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...
AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER WORDING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PRIMARY MARINE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS RESULTING IN SEAS GENERALLY
RUNNING 1-2 FEET. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCA FOR WINDS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BISCAYNE BAY. DUE TO SHORT DURATION
OF STRONG NORTH FLOW...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 61 86 60 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 65 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 77 61 78 61 / - - 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141130
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FOG MAY BE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF LIFTING AT
KAPF BUT NOT SOUNDING THE ALL CLEAR YET AS FOG TENDS TO REFORM
AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SMALL CHANCE LIGHT WESTERLY SEA BREEZE
COULD CARRY FOG BACK TO COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG
BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A BANK OF
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES ALL OF OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND HAS
SPREAD INLAND OVER COASTAL COLLIER/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS...AND WILL
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE EVENT THAT ADVISORY SHOULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN AXIS OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OVERALL...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
FRIDAY TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE A
PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
70S AS FOG GRADUALLY LIFTS ALONG THE GULF COAST. SHOWER THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10
POP ALONG EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
PRESENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WILL WEAKEN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ERODE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS...WITH
DIURNAL MIXING PROCESSES RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OFF SHORE...WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST. RECORD HIGHS OF 86F AND 87F WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AT
MIA/PBI RESPECTIVELY...WITH RECORD OF 89F AT FLL A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. UNFAVORABLE TIMING WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY LATE
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. A DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE NOT BEGINNING TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO
SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...
AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER WORDING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PRIMARY MARINE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS RESULTING IN SEAS GENERALLY
RUNNING 1-2 FEET. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCA FOR WINDS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BISCAYNE BAY. DUE TO SHORT DURATION
OF STRONG NORTH FLOW...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 61 86 60 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 65 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 77 61 78 61 / - - 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 141019
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
519 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A BANK OF
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES ALL OF OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND HAS
SPREAD INLAND OVER COASTAL COLLIER/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS...AND WILL
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE EVENT THAT ADVISORY SHOULD NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN AXIS OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OVERALL...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
FRIDAY TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ATLANTIC COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE A
PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
70S AS FOG GRADUALLY LIFTS ALONG THE GULF COAST. SHOWER THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10
POP ALONG EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
PRESENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WILL WEAKEN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ERODE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS...WITH
DIURNAL MIXING PROCESSES RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OFF SHORE...WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST. RECORD HIGHS OF 86F AND 87F WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AT
MIA/PBI RESPECTIVELY...WITH RECORD OF 89F AT FLL A BIT MORE
UNLIKELY. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. UNFAVORABLE TIMING WILL LIMIT
THREAT FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. A MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY LATE
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. A DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE NOT BEGINNING TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO
SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...
AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER WORDING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PRIMARY MARINE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS RESULTING IN SEAS GENERALLY
RUNNING 1-2 FEET. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCA FOR WINDS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BISCAYNE BAY. DUE TO SHORT DURATION
OF STRONG NORTH FLOW...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 61 86 60 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 65 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 84 64 86 63 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 77 61 78 61 / - - 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 140556
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HAVE ISSUED AMD NOT SKED FOR KAPF DUE TO
CONTINUED VSBY SENSOR BEING DOWN. 10SM REPORTS ARE IN ERROR AS
WIDESPREAD NEAR-DENSE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS TO LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT EAST COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...HOWEVER EXTENT OF ANY DENSE FOG IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT DENSE FOG CERTAINLY PSBL. WILL MONITOR/AMD AS
NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES THOUGH 14Z. INCREASED SKY COVER DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVING INLAND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS BUT LIFR HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT KAPF. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING FOR KAPF. FOR KTMB,
STARTED LIFR AT 05Z COMING UP TO VFR BY 15Z. FOR KPBI, KFXE, KFLL
AND KMIA, STARTED IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS AT 10Z OR 11Z AND
BROUGHT THEM UP TO VFR BY 14Z. SEABREEZE EXPECTED BOTH COASTS
AGAIN BY AROUND NOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING FROM
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE ISSUED A SPS STATEMENT
MENTIONING THIS.
THE WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A WEST DIRECTION SUNDAY AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOO. SO HAVE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CWA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
GULF STREAM.
SOME BOATERS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NEAR THE KEYS WERE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE
FOG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT VALUE THIS
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 60 83 57 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 63 83 60 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 84 64 83 61 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 77 62 78 60 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 140153
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
853 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
.UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES THOUGH 14Z. INCREASED SKY COVER DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVING INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS BUT LIFR HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT KAPF. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING FOR KAPF. FOR KTMB,
STARTED LIFR AT 05Z COMING UP TO VFR BY 15Z. FOR KPBI, KFXE, KFLL
AND KMIA, STARTED IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS AT 10Z OR 11Z AND
BROUGHT THEM UP TO VFR BY 14Z. SEABREEZE EXPECTED BOTH COASTS
AGAIN BY AROUND NOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
.DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING FROM
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE ISSUED A SPS STATEMENT
MENTIONING THIS.
THE WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A WEST DIRECTION SUNDAY AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOO. SO HAVE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CWA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
GULF STREAM.
SOME BOATERS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NEAR THE KEYS WERE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE
FOG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT VALUE THIS
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 84 60 83 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 83 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 65 84 64 83 / - 10 10 20
NAPLES 62 77 62 78 / - 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ069-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 140012
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
712 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
.UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH FOR THE EAST
TERMINALS BUT LIFR HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT KAPF. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING FOR KAPF. FOR KTMB,
STARTED LIFR AT 05Z COMING UP TO VFR BY 15Z. FOR KPBI, KFXE, KFLL
AND KMIA, STARTED IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS/VSBYS AT 10Z OR 11Z AND
BROUGHT THEM UP TO VFR BY 14Z. SEABREEZE EXPECTED BOTH COASTS
AGAIN BY AROUND NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
..DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING FROM
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE ISSUED A SPS STATEMENT
MENTIONING THIS.
THE WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A WEST DIRECTION SUNDAY AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOO. SO HAVE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CWA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
GULF STREAM.
SOME BOATERS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NEAR THE KEYS WERE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE
FOG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT VALUE THIS
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 84 60 83 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 83 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 65 84 64 83 / - 10 10 20
NAPLES 62 77 62 78 / - 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ069-FLZ075.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...17/ERA
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 131910
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
...DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ALL AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
.DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO SWING FROM
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE ISSUED A SPS STATEMENT
MENTIONING THIS.
THE WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A WEST DIRECTION SUNDAY AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
CWA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TOO. SO HAVE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CWA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
GULF STREAM.
SOME BOATERS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NEAR THE KEYS WERE
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN THE
FOG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT VALUE THIS
WEEKEND...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
EVENING...DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 84 60 83 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 83 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 64 84 64 83 / - 10 10 20
NAPLES 62 77 62 78 / - 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL GULF WATERS UNTIL 14Z SATURDAY.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 131836
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
.UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL GULF WATERS
THROUGH 14Z SAT. FULL FCST UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
AVIATION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT AM ONLY EXPECTING FEW-SCT040 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER BECOMING NE THEN E AT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWINGING TO LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT.
KAPF IS EXPECTED TO GET A SEA BREEZE WITHIN IN THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND RIGHT NOW ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY DAWN
SATURDAY. GFSMOS EVEN SHOWS THE VIS DROPPING TO 1/2SM AT KTMB AS
EARLY AS 03Z. SO WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE FOG TONIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH MVFR BR AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS DAWN AND IFR FG AT KAPF
AND KTMB OVERNIGHT. THE FCST FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH IFR/LIFR A POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING. /DG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS DISSIPATING OR HAS DISSIPATED. ANY FOG THAT IS STILL
DISSIPATING WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES THIS MORNING. THE FOG
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SKIES WILL ALSO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. SO HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES AND THE COASTAL PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WORDING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO MEET THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OF 4 HOURS OR MORE OF
BELOW 35 PERCENT LEVEL. SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE THE DAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV AVIATION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
AVIATION...
THICK FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS IFR OR LOWER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH VSBYS 3SM OR LESS AT TIMES. KAPF WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS BELOW
1SM THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SOME DISSIPATION OCCURS. SEA BREEZES WILL
FORM ON BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FOGGY NIGHT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
LATEST NOCTURNAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BANK OF DENSE FOG
SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EST. EXPECT FOG DECK TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER TODAY...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR/EAST COAST LOCATIONS...WITH THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS CONFINED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CONVERGENCE A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EXPECT THAT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
FINALLY WEAKEN THE GRIP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT PASSES...WITH A MODIFIED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT
MOST IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
SCEC CRITERIA IF NOT STRONGER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET AT
THIS TIME...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 83 60 83 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 83 63 83 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 64 84 64 83 / - 10 10 20
NAPLES 62 77 62 78 / - 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL GULF WATERS UNTIL 14Z SATURDA.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 131753
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
.AVIATION...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT AM ONLY EXPECTING FEW-SCT040 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER BECOMING NE THEN E AT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWINGING TO LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT.
KAPF IS EXPECTED TO GET A SEA BREEZE WITHIN IN THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND RIGHT NOW ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY DAWN
SATURDAY. GFSMOS EVEN SHOWS THE VIS DROPPING TO 1/2SM AT KTMB AS
EARLY AS 03Z. SO WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE FOG TONIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH MVFR BR AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS DAWN AND IFR FG AT KAPF
AND KTMB OVERNIGHT. THE FCST FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH IFR/LIFR A POSSIBILITY SAT MORNING. /DG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS DISSIPATING OR HAS DISSIPATED. ANY FOG THAT IS STILL
DISSIPATING WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES THIS MORNING. THE FOG
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SKIES WILL ALSO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. SO HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES AND THE COASTAL PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WORDING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO MEET THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OF 4 HOURS OR MORE OF
BELOW 35 PERCENT LEVEL. SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE THE DAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV AVIATION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
AVIATION...
THICK FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS IFR OR LOWER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH VSBYS 3SM OR LESS AT TIMES. KAPF WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS BELOW
1SM THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SOME DISSIPATION OCCURS. SEA BREEZES WILL
FORM ON BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FOGGY NIGHT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
LATEST NOCTURNAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BANK OF DENSE FOG
SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EST. EXPECT FOG DECK TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER TODAY...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR/EAST COAST LOCATIONS...WITH THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS CONFINED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CONVERGENCE A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EXPECT THAT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
FINALLY WEAKEN THE GRIP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT PASSES...WITH A MODIFIED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT
MOST IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
SCEC CRITERIA IF NOT STRONGER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET AT
THIS TIME...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 62 84 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 83 64 84 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 66 83 65 84 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 61 78 61 79 / - - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 131423 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
.UPDATE...
THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS DISSIPATING OR HAS DISSIPATED. ANY FOG THAT IS STILL
DISSIPATING WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES THIS MORNING. THE FOG
SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SKIES WILL ALSO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. SO HAVE UPDATED THE
ZONES AND THE COASTAL PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WORDING.
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO MEET THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OF 4 HOURS OR MORE OF
BELOW 35 PERCENT LEVEL. SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AREA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE THE DAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV AVIATION... /ISSUED 634 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
AVIATION...
THICK FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNRISE WHEN CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS IFR OR LOWER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH VSBYS 3SM OR LESS AT TIMES. KAPF WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS BELOW
1SM THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SOME DISSIPATION OCCURS. SEA BREEZES WILL
FORM ON BOTH COASTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FOGGY NIGHT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
LATEST NOCTURNAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BANK OF DENSE FOG
SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EST. EXPECT FOG DECK TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER TODAY...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR/EAST COAST LOCATIONS...WITH THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS CONFINED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CONVERGENCE A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EXPECT THAT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
FINALLY WEAKEN THE GRIP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT PASSES...WITH A MODIFIED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT
MOST IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
SCEC CRITERIA IF NOT STRONGER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET AT
THIS TIME...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 64 83 62 / - 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 65 83 64 / - 10 10 20
MIAMI 81 66 83 65 / - 10 10 10
NAPLES 78 61 78 61 / - - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
| 
