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000 FXUS04 KWBC 102205 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 603 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 11/0000 UTC THRU MAR 14/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...18Z UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED WITH THE 18Z NAM AND GFS ACRS THE UPR MS VLY IN ASSOC WITH THE LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE IMPACTING THE REGION WITH MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL ATTM. THIS SYS WILL BE DEPARTING LATER ON THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE 18Z NAM TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER OVER THE LWR GRT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS WHILE THE GFS DID EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE BY INCREASING THE AMTS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REGION AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS GENERALLY AGREEING WELL WITH THE PREV FCST. ACRS THE LWR MS VLY/SRN PLAINS REGION...THE 18Z NAM AND GFS CUT BACK THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF MAXIMA FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY AND INVOLVING PRIMARILY THE LAST 12 HRS OF THE PD. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN IN SUGGESTING A SW/NE ORIENTED AXIS OF MDT TO HVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE REGION AS STG MID/UPR LVL SWLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY INTERACT WITH A STG LOW LVL BNDRY THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED DOWN TWD THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION...INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX AND ENHANCING UPR LVL JET DYNAMICS FAVOR A HVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND HENCE WILL NOT BE DECREASING AMTS. ONLY CHANGES HERE WERE TO SUPPRESS THE AXIS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND TO ENHANCE THE AMTS LOCALLY OVER E CNTRL TX WHERE SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEAT/TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS LATE. ...UPR LAKES/UPR MS VALLEY... LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING LOW ACRS THE UPR LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE MOVG FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WED FROM NERN WI...ACRS THE U.P. OF MI AND INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC DURG THE DAY WED. THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD PCPN AREA WL CONT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPR LAKES INTO EARLY WED MORNING. PCPN INTENSITIES MAY BE ENHANCED EARLY DAY 1 BY LOW LEVEL FLOW..INITIALLY ELY TO NELY...BACKING TO A MORE NLY TO NWLY DIRECTION BY WED MORNING...OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE BULK OF THE PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM DURG DAY 1 WL BE ACRS ONTARIO AND QB..WITH THE SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE PCPN SHIELD PRODUCING .25-.50"+ LIQUID EQUIVALENTS FROM NERN MN...FAR NRN WI AND INTO THE U.P. OF MI. ...OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... THE NAM AND GFS CONT TO ADVERTISE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX PUSHING NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1. INITIALLY THIS WL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEWD MOVG WARM FRONT ASSOC WITH THE UPR MS VALLEY/UPR LAKES LOW. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THE EMPHASIS FOR PCPN WL BE ALONG THE EWD MOVG COLD FRONT WHERE BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL DEFINED. MODEL QPFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN AXIS OF .25-50"+ ACRS THESE AREAS...WITH DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THESE AMTS. ...SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY... IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN CANADA...THE MID TO UPR LEVEL FLOW WL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. SHRTWV ENERGY IN THIS SWLY FLOW WL OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SINKING SWD EARLY THIS PERIOD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WL BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS A LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL TO NERN TX...NEWD INTO NRN LA AND AR. THERE ARE A LOT DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE QPF DEPICTIONS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE...BUT GENERAL AGRMNT ON MDT TO HVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF FOR DAY 1...WITH AN AXIS OF .50-1"+ PCPN AMTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DAYS 2 AND 3... ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE CENTRAL U.S. EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A WEAK CUTOFF LOW IN THE SW WILL EJECT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. GOMEX MOISTURE WILL FEED THE SYSTEM...AND THE EASTERLY BL TRADE WINDS WILL DIRECT THAT MOISTURE INTO THE CNTRL TX COAST WHERE PRIME INTERACTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT WILL OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL SQUEEZE A LOT OF THE MOISTURE OUT INTO THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN CNTRL TX...BUT PLENTY WILL REMAIN FOR LIGHT TO MDT PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY TO THE TN VALLEY. FARTHER EAST...ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL FEED THE SAME BOUNDARY AND FOCUS SHOWERS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY D3. MODELS SHOWED A WIDE RANGE OF MAXIMA PLACEMENTS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. MODEL DIAG PREFERRED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...SO THE QPF IS ADMITTEDLY BROADBRUSHED YET FOCUSED ON THE LIKELY MAX-MOISTURE-FLUX REGION OF SRN/CNTRL TX WHERE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE 48 HR PERIOD. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE DROUGHT-COMPACTED SOILS HERE...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A FORMAL RISK. HOWEVER...IF 00Z RUNS INCREASE MSTR...IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES.. THE SAME BOUNDARY WILL CREATE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE UPR LOW CREEPS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PROVIDING A BROAD REGION OF LIFT AND ENERGY. SW CO MTNS WILL SEE LIGHT QPF RESULTING IN SNOW ACCUMS WHILE LOWER ELEVATION WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SAME MODEL CONCERNS HERE...ALTHOUGH TOPO WAS WEIGHTED MORE THAN INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS HERE. ORAVEC/ORRISON/SOWKO GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 12/00Z 0.01 540740 538730 535722 533718 529709 522698 520692 516686 512678 506665 502652 496640 492634 490631 482624 476621 468620 462619 455622 441629 421648 410663 399679 390694 387705 385714 385717 386722 388729 392734 402744 403755 402762 400767 397773 392782 387790 382796 373809 368815 363823 347849 343857 341866 336881 334885 332889 322892 316900 312905 307920 305926 300932 292937 289939 288943 284957 286967 282973 276987 272995 272001 271006 269015 268020 270024 274029 279034 280043 279049 278055 278061 278066 277068 266075 266079 268083 271090 285097 297089 306088 310087 313089 334106 337109 341109 344108 346105 346102 346089 347085 351085 353084 355081 352076 343075 341075 340071 340067 338062 337058 335055 327055 321049 322043 324035 329028 338018 339012 341008 344001 347995 349988 351978 355970 357966 357960 359953 364947 371939 374935 377932 381925 400901 410888 415881 422876 429871 437875 440878 439883 437890 435895 434903 433915 433937 440958 444965 449969 461980 482979 487977 489974 495966 505953 511943 515931 522910 534870 539842 543819 545797 546784 546773 541752 540740 0.01 462106 461102 458100 455097 453093 450093 447097 444097 439096 438099 437104 441108 446115 451115 453113 449109 449104 451105 454108 458109 462106 0.25 535760 532744 527728 523719 517710 507697 504692 499684 477662 468651 467644 463639 456636 448638 440644 434651 430659 427666 423679 421685 419695 417701 411708 410711 409716 410723 412739 415761 414771 414779 411790 407799 403805 372850 367858 362865 354876 342900 335912 329924 323933 315943 311949 308955 302969 297977 293984 290990 287001 286008 286012 290021 290027 291040 292046 294049 296051 302050 309048 312042 316031 322019 333996 344969 347963 350954 355942 362931 370921 389898 404877 414863 423850 430838 437826 456798 460793 467786 470781 472773 477773 479779 480787 478792 476802 474809 463838 460847 460851 460856 463868 465874 465880 464890 464901 465907 467912 470917 476921 485922 492919 499914 504907 508900 512888 519870 525853 533817 536802 537787 537780 536769 535760 0.25 480685 479681 476679 475679 473679 469679 470683 471687 471692 470697 469698 468702 469704 472706 473706 476706 476703 476698 476696 476693 477690 479687 480685 0.25 333082 333080 331078 331075 330074 328072 327071 324070 321070 320072 321074 322075 324078 327078 329078 330080 331082 333082 333082 0.50 527802 528796 527791 523784 518782 515782 509785 504789 498799 490820 487825 483831 478838 476845 475851 474863 474878 474886 475894 479897 484899 492896 498889 505878 513859 518847 522835 525823 527807 527802 0.50 440684 435681 432683 430686 425695 419714 418720 418726 421741 422752 421761 418773 418786 417797 414806 407828 403837 400843 396849 393849 389857 387860 384864 381866 376867 372868 369870 363878 354893 343910 338917 334924 330931 323939 318946 314953 305972 297984 293992 291002 292011 295018 296025 295030 295037 297040 299042 302042 304039 307036 309032 312023 317014 324001 341966 345958 349948 356932 379901 401872 414853 423837 434818 439810 444802 450790 452780 452768 455757 456751 455742 453730 448721 443714 434707 432704 433700 434696 437690 440684 1.00 434742 434738 434734 432730 429729 426731 427734 428737 430741 431744 432747 434744 434742 1.00 435763 434760 433760 433761 431764 430767 429768 427771 425774 425778 427780 429778 430775 431774 434772 435768 435767 435763 1.00 433799 431794 428795 424801 422809 419818 417824 413832 411839 415837 419830 423823 427815 430809 433800 433799 1.00 364904 360901 357905 350914 343922 336932 322949 317957 311967 301986 298992 297999 299006 303009 308007 311003 318994 329975 335965 340956 346944 350933 354921 356915 359911 364908 364904 1.50 347930 347927 342933 338939 333943 325953 320959 317963 311975 304987 302990 303995 304997 306995 308994 313990 317984 325973 332962 338949 344938 347930 24HR QP VT 13/00Z 0.01 499658 494645 488633 485629 482624 477618 472614 468612 461611 451612 448613 442617 435620 425627 419631 411636 402644 393653 389657 385663 380672 376679 373688 367702 359722 357731 355741 343755 338759 334752 331750 325751 323757 322762 321767 318771 312778 309809 308818 308823 310826 314826 318825 322820 324815 329801 333786 336776 337770 339766 343768 348767 353761 356765 360764 365761 370757 374751 378744 383735 389725 399709 405701 413693 421686 428683 436683 445683 455684 463687 466691 464695 459698 455704 450710 448719 447723 449727 453726 459725 460734 462749 464756 466762 469763 471761 475758 481748 484741 487732 490726 491721 494707 499684 500672 498662 499658 0.01 474854 472845 467840 463838 456840 451839 447840 444845 442851 443855 440858 437859 436862 439864 442864 445865 448862 452856 455853 459859 461868 463873 465875 466883 469887 471887 473886 474881 474875 474863 474854 0.01 452815 451811 450808 448804 445802 445801 442800 439802 438805 439809 440813 443816 445819 447821 448821 450821 452820 452817 452815 0.01 416064 410056 401049 398044 394039 389042 387048 385056 384058 381058 379055 379050 375043 370039 366033 366028 368022 372012 373007 372002 369996 368990 369985 370978 370973 372968 371963 371954 368940 369932 371925 373911 376899 377885 378873 378861 378851 378845 377835 376829 375817 372808 370805 366804 360804 356809 354814 349826 346834 346847 345855 343861 339873 336879 332884 327888 320892 308895 302898 299901 291919 285928 278938 264958 257964 250971 239985 233993 235998 239003 248010 257017 264022 268026 273028 280031 288037 296046 300049 302051 306052 310053 316057 322059 330059 337052 346044 355040 358040 360042 358045 355051 353054 354059 356065 355068 351070 350072 348076 350084 352090 355096 358100 359105 354117 354127 360136 365142 370145 374150 373153 369158 370162 373165 383156 386150 387143 386137 384134 384131 392124 397117 400113 394110 385110 382108 382103 398086 403077 405069 407066 410068 413069 416064 0.01 379196 379192 377189 371183 359177 356171 353165 343164 337164 331162 328162 326164 323171 326176 329178 331182 336185 339183 339180 338177 340175 340177 341183 344183 349176 353178 357178 359187 373193 376195 379196 0.25 443639 440637 435639 430642 425646 420651 418655 418660 420663 425663 429663 434659 439654 440650 443643 443639 0.25 367874 367868 364863 359864 356867 345884 336898 324913 314924 308932 302940 296947 294953 290963 285970 275981 270987 266992 264996 267005 271011 278018 281020 287020 297019 306017 316013 324009 330003 334997 340988 345980 350974 353967 357956 359945 361924 363901 365886 367874 0.25 381079 383076 381073 380072 378070 375071 375072 374075 374079 375081 377083 378083 379083 381079 381079 0.50 358903 357892 356886 354885 344897 337908 329921 322933 318940 313946 308952 306956 302964 297970 286977 283982 279989 277992 276995 278000 277007 283012 290014 297013 305010 314008 319005 324001 330995 335988 349962 352957 354950 356940 356931 358903 1.00 352936 351928 351922 348915 345914 342915 337919 335923 330931 326941 321949 317957 313969 309978 302985 295991 288999 287003 290006 299003 308000 318995 326989 331981 336973 343962 347954 351943 352936 1.50 345934 345925 343923 338925 333937 330943 327948 324954 321963 316973 309986 310990 315989 320986 325980 333970 340959 344945 345934 2.00 332957 331955 330954 328954 328955 326958 326959 325962 324965 322969 321970 320973 322975 325973 326972 327970 328968 329966 330964 331961 331959 332957 24HR QP VT 14/00Z 0.01 505735 502724 497718 492715 489712 485711 483711 479714 476721 474738 473749 471757 466775 463791 462801 463810 464831 466843 467849 470855 478865 487880 492887 497894 502898 508900 512900 515897 516894 516888 514875 511860 508852 504841 502833 499825 498819 498809 500799 502792 503782 505762 505751 506746 505741 505735 0.01 510269 514259 514253 514247 512240 509231 504220 499214 494211 488210 485213 484218 485229 482236 477241 475245 475251 475257 476263 480265 485263 490266 496278 499280 501280 505276 510269 0.01 366731 363724 357722 345720 342721 339726 336733 333735 329734 326737 323744 322751 321756 321763 319769 312778 307790 305796 305801 307805 308811 306817 304822 302828 314850 317852 319857 320862 317876 315889 313894 310898 307897 303894 300892 296894 291897 284909 280918 275945 272957 273961 273964 271967 264975 259984 255987 250989 246989 239987 235987 233990 233993 235998 237002 240004 249008 259012 264016 267020 279022 291021 295021 301024 310032 321036 327038 332042 340051 336063 333070 332076 331085 331093 331102 334108 337115 340119 350131 363132 367133 370136 372144 375144 378136 381132 385128 391124 392121 393116 391113 389109 389103 391095 394090 397089 400086 401079 403075 403069 403064 405063 409062 411059 409053 405018 401995 400990 396984 389972 387968 385965 378964 370965 363968 357971 355971 353967 352962 351955 351939 352921 354909 362883 368870 373857 378846 381834 383819 383803 376768 374757 370747 366731 0.01 373032 374029 372025 372022 371018 371016 369015 368014 367015 365016 362018 360019 359019 358023 359026 360028 362030 363030 365033 366033 369035 372035 373032 0.25 362798 361798 358796 355797 355798 354802 355805 355807 355809 356812 357813 359811 361807 361806 362802 362798 0.25 348764 347759 346754 343751 339750 336752 331758 329765 328771 327778 327783 329788 331791 335792 339786 343780 345773 348767 348764 0.25 364827 363824 362823 361825 360826 360829 359833 359837 358840 358841 359843 361840 363836 363835 364831 364830 364827 0.25 393072 392068 389062 386051 384047 381044 375045 372047 364053 357058 356065 355068 357072 367073 369076 371083 373086 378089 387084 392076 393072 0.25 352872 351867 348865 344866 342868 335881 326893 322899 317906 312919 308932 296960 290972 287979 284987 284995 286001 292005 300007 312011 317011 321010 326005 334994 338988 341980 342972 342961 341951 342942 343934 343923 343916 345906 348890 349882 352875 352872 0.50 338908 338900 335897 329900 326904 321912 317920 314931 311941 309952 304962 295980 290988 290992 291996 297997 303997 306999 310002 317002 320998 325989 333971 335964 335959 337946 338934 338922 338908 1.00 329941 328934 328932 326931 325932 323939 321947 317954 314964 313967 309971 304978 306983 309985 313984 317981 322974 326965 328957 329951 329944 329941 $$