AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 230 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2003 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY). ...POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER TO START SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK... CURRENTLY: SERN CO PLANS STRATUS BURNED OFF AROUND NOON...HOWEVER... TEMPS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND AND LOW SUN ANGLE. THE WIND ISN'T TOO FAR AWAY WITH OBSERVATION DATA SHOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 8K FT MSL WITH STILL RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS(IE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO CA. THE ULJ IS CONTINUING TO DIG HARD TO THE S AND STARTING TO HEAD INTO THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WLY FLOW WAS COVERING ALL OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS... SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT. TGNT: MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE THE WIND AND MIN TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT IN ERN CO SHOULD MIGRATE BACK WWD TOWARDS THE ERN CO MTNS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE BLOWING OVER THE HIGH HIGHER TERRAIN. BIG QUESTION IS HOW SIGNIFICANT WILL THE GUSTS GET TONIGHT? MM5 MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING THE GREATEST...IF AT ALL...ANY MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER. THE WINDS WILL BE A BLOWING THOUGH WITH 55-75KTS AT H5 FROM THE SW. AREAS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE "HIGH" WINDS WOULD BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE WET MOUNTAINS. BOX CANYON AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN ERN SLOPES COULD SEE PERIODIC WIND CHANNELING WITH LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY WIND HEADLINES. OTHERWISE...W-SWLY FLOW STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND DOESN'T APPEAR TO MOISTEN UP AT ALL AROUND OUR PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. I PULLED THE EVENING POPS THERE...BUT KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY MAY BE LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. SAT: STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY HERE...HOWEVER...NICE TO SEE THE ETA FINALLY COME IN-LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION. SAT AM SHOULD SEE THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT UP AGAINST THE SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS. TEMPS IN SERN CO MAY NOT BUDGE MUCH SAT. SRN WILL STILL HAVE THE RELATIVELY "DRY" MID LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD MUCH OF SAT AM. AGAIN...CURRENT MORNING POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM(OPEN WAVE) MOVES OVERHEAD SAT AFTN...THE MOISTURE SHOULD DEEPEN AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO BREAKOUT OVER THE MTNS AND SPREAD TO ADJACENT PLAINS/VALLEYS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP WITH VALUES OF 6-8.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND COLD CORE CLOUD LAYER TEMPS SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOD/LARGE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE BATTLE.... HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE AND DIABATIC COOLING IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT... THIS COULD BECOME A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER EVENT WITH TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BY LATE SAT AFTN... MUCH OF THE MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS/I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ENGULFED WITH PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST QPF/SNOWAMT "BULLSEYE" WOULD BE IN THE SERN CO MTNS/PALMER DIVIDE. THERE POTENTIALLY COULD BE AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND 3-7 INCHES IN THE SERN CO MTNS/PIKES PEAK BY LATE SAT AFTN. THERE IS SOME BRIEF OROGRAPHIC INFLOW TO THE ERN SAN JUAN AND COLLEGIATE MTN RANGE EARLY SAT AFTN... BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE LOSE THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE IN MOST LOCATIONS SAT AFTN. NOW...THE SYSTEM'S SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT/INSTABILITY ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT HOW MUCH IS STILL THE QUESTION. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HUERFANO...TELLER... NRN EL PASO...FREMONT...AND THE SERN CO MTNS STARTING SAT AFTN. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE CONTINUED EVENT. --METZE .LONG TERM... (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY). AS TOUCHED UPON IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (PLEASE SEE ABOVE)...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECT THAT INCOMING UPPER SYSTEM HAS ON CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCH THAT BEGINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER ACTION FROM AROUND SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT QG ASCENT WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ON THE DOWN SIDE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOT VERY FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 10 INCH CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE AND FAVORABLE COLD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FLUFFY SNOWFLAKES AS ALLUDED TO IN WFO PUEBLO'S 430 AM DISCUSSION. AS SUNDAY PROGRESS...PUEBLO IN WAKE OF SYSTEM WITH MAIN STORY OF THE DAY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...I.E. WILL HAVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE REBOUND MONDAY. POPS NIL ON MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS CWFA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PAINTED GRIDS/ZONES WITH MAINLY LOW GRADE MOUNTAIN POPS THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...ALLOWING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. FINALLY...BY NEXT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND CLIMATOLOGY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH...ZONES 72>84 AND 87(PALMER DIVIDE...TELLER COUNTY...FREMONT COUNTY...SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET MTNS...HUERFANO COUNTY)...12PM MST SAT TO 6AM MST SUN. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 845 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 A BROAD 1020 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE GA WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING OVER NE FL COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT WINDS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 400 MB WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB...BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS NOT IMPRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL SHOWS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER GOMEX AND INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...MOVING EWD. MOST INLAND AREAS ARE CALM NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. AT 00Z HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY CONFINED S OF BRUNSWICK AND EAST OF U.S. 301. GIVEN THESE CONDS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PATCHY DENSE FOG LOOKS REASONABLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 OVER NE FL...BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW IN DEPTH. (INTERESTING TO NOTE 12Z/18Z ETA METEOGRAMS DID NOT SHOW ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.) LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD SEE TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...SO MAY MAKE AN UPDATE. ALREADY SEEING TEMPS NEARING LOWS OVER INTERIOR NE FL. A FINE DAY FOR SAT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE E WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND LIGHT E TO SE WINDS...WITH TEMPS ARND 75-80....BUT LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE NEAR 70. MARINE...WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT PER OBSERVATIONS AND SEAS ESTIMATED ABOUT 2-3 FT...MAINLY FROM AN ENE SWELL AT ABOUT 8-10 SEC. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE. ARS -------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... -------------------------- CURRENTLY...PLEASANT WX ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) WITH ATLC SC FIELD STAYING S OF THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DP'S IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER INLAND AREAS...MID 50'S NEAR THE COAST. PUBLIC...LITTLE CHANGE TO NEAR TERM FCST...AS MAIN CONCERN IS FOG FORMATION THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. WRF MODEL...ALONG WITH VARIOUS MOS SUITES...INDICATED POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS FOG WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...AS A BIT OF ONSHORE COMPONENT HAS ADVECTED IN SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WRF APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON SFC MOISTURE IN THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AND PAINTED FOG THERE AS WELL. HAVE INDICATED MORE PATCHY FOG FARTHER INLAND... ALTHO DON'T EXPECT MUCH AWAY FROM MOISTURE SOURCE. DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MUCH OF THIS FOG MAY BE IN THE FORM OF THICK GROUND FOG. SUN MORNING...FOG FCST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MOS INDICATES SIMILAR NUMBERS TO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA FOUS SHOWS A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDINESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DENSE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FCST ALONE. EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON. DUE TO THE NARROWNESS OF THE FCST CONVECTION...BOTH FROM THE ETA AND GFS SUITES...HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE N ZONES MON. GFS DEVELOPS SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS LOW CHANCE AT BEST ATTM. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS. MARINE...COASTAL FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IF DRAINAGE WIND ADVECTS RADIATION FOG TO THE E. NO HEADLINES. FIRE WEATHER...LOW DISPERSION THRU THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES. PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 45 76 48 76 / 00 00 00 05 SSI 56 72 54 74 / 00 00 00 05 JAX 51 75 55 78 / 00 00 00 05 SGJ 60 73 60 76 / 00 00 00 05 GNV 50 78 51 80 / 00 00 00 05 OCF 50 79 53 81 / 00 00 00 05 JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. $$ CARROLL/WELSH fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION...RUC SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LATEST MSAS PLACING A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTER FROM NC/TN SOUTHWEST TO THE COAST COAST NEAR KMOB. THIS RESULTS IN GENERALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS ATTM RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60...NORTH TO SOUTH...AND ARE ON TRACK. WILL LEAVE PUBLIC ZONES AS IS AND ISSUE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BY 1020 AM WITH OUT CHANGE. .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ RKR fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 752 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION...WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY...MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. MODELS HAVING THERE PROBLEMS THIS EVENING WITH EVOLVING SURFACE PATTERN TO OUR WEST. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS A RESULT OF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GETTING STRONGER AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MODELS DID NOT CATCH LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER...BUT THAT LOW SEEMS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE SURFACE LOWS OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME. 21Z RUC HAD NOT PICKED UP ON NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS. BUT THE 00Z RUC HAS...AND WILL UPDATE WINDS WITH IT. ALREADY GETTING CLOUD COVER AT MULTIPLE LEVELS...AND WILL JUST GO MOSTLY CLOUD EVERYPLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN GRIDS...AND WILL UPDATE WITH THE CURRENT RUC DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE DOING MUCH BETTER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. SOME ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL NOT TOUCH. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION... FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS -SN POTENTIAL. WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF DEEPENING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH WSWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE EDGING OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPWARD MOTION FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/NRN WI. RADARS ARE LIGHTING UP FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER MI...BUT WEDGE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 00Z KGRB/KMPX SOUNDINGS (DWPT DEPRESSIONS UPWARD OF 20C BELOW 800MB) KEEPING SUBSTANTIAL PART OF LEADING EDGE AS VIRGA DESPITE REFLECTIVITIES UP TO 30DBZ AS LOW AS 5KFT ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY. HAS BEEN SNOWING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP ONCE SNOW DOES REACH THE GROUND AS NOTED BY OBS IN WRN MN/NE SD. IN ADDITION TO BROAD FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK...STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRING PER RUC/ETA...AND THIS SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND UPSTREAM. SO THE DIFFICULT QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER FCST AREA CAN BE ERODED BY PERSISTENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DEPTH/MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIRMASS OBSERVED ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS THAN 18Z ETA DOES. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD RUC DEPICTION OF MOISTENING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WITH SFC DWPTS RUNNING IN THE TEENS F TO THE N OF FCST AREA...CIRCULATION INDUCED BY FRONTOGENESIS (NRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND) WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. HAVE THUS TRIMMED BACK START OF -SN/FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT. OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...DRY AIR IS A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAKENING OF FORCING...DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT AS BEST LIFT IS WASTED ON MOISTENING DRY LAYER. OTHERWISE... SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF HIGHEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES UPSTREAM SUGGESTS BAND OF SNOW THAT REACHES GROUND SHOULD EVENTUALLY HEAD ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY THROUGH IRON RIVER TOWARD MARQUETTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (LESS THAN AN INCH) DUE TO DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. A WORD ON THE LATER PERIODS...18Z ETA/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW LINE SUN/SUN NIGHT MAY PUSH FARTHER W THRU FCST AREA THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BEING 48HRS OUT...MODEL RUNS WILL NO DOUBT SHOW MORE FLUCTUATIONS ON THERMAL STRUCTURE AND LOW TRACK. STAY TUNED. ROLFSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION FOR SAT THRU FRI ISSUED AT 345 PM EST. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND PROGRESSION OF BIG WRN TROF AND IMPACT OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THIS TROF ON MSLP FIELD/SN AMTS/PCPN TYPE OVER CWA. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTER TERM FCST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEN A DIVERGENCE OF OPINION ON TRACK OF RESULTING SFC LO. GFS/OLD ECMWF TENDS TO DVLP SFC LO MORE AND TAKE SYS FARTHER W THAN ETA/CNDN SOLNS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN THERMAL TROF WELL TO THE W OF CWA AND TENDENCY FOR WARMING RELATED TO THE GRT LKS TO DEFLECT LOWS FARTHER W EARLY IN THE SEASON WOULD FAVOR THE FARTHER W SOLN...HAVE COMPROMISED A BIT TOWARD THE WEAKER ETA GIVEN NCEP MODEL PREFERENCES. THIS SOLN MIGHT BE RSNBL IF ENUF LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC CAD ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTGENESIS CIRCULATION MAINTAINS MAIN LLVL BAROCLINIC ZN FARTHER SE. BUT OVERALL...TENDED MORE TOWARD GFS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF DEPARTING JET MAX LIFTS TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK ON SAT...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABV SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZN ACRS THE CWA SHUD MAINTAIN OCNL -SN/ FLURRIES IN THE MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWA WHERE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL PREVAIL. SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP DURG THE AFTN...WHEN GFS SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/H7 UVV WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL H100-85 THKNS ARND 1300M PROGGED TO BE NEAR SE ZNS...SUSPECT AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FCST FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN A COLD ENUF PROFILE FOR ALL SN EVEN NR LK MI. IMXR METHOD SUGS UP TO 3" SN/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS FIGURE DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING DRY AIR AND LIMITED WINDOW OF SGNFT PCPN CONFINED TO THE AFTN...WITH HIEST AMTS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW DEEPER SATURATION OVER ONLY THE WRN ZNS WITH BETTER UPR DVGC...SO LESS SN ACRS THE E. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LWR ETA FCST TMAX. BETTER UPR DVGC/H7 UVV PROGGED TO IMPACT CWA...MAINLY THE W HALF... MOST OF SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHRTWV TO THE NE. DURG ALL THIS TIME...MAIN SFC LO REMAINS WELL S OF CWA. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL ENHANCE SN FALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE WRN ZNS. IMXR METHOD CONTS TO POINT TOWARD 3"/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS AMT UPWARD IN FVRD UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF (ESPECIALLY SINCE ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW A 4-5K FT DEPTH OF NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FLOW AT MQT). ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW UVV MAX BLO BETTER RANGE OF SN GROWTH TEMPS...THERE IS STILL SGNFT UVV FCST WITHIN THE FVRBL RANGE. BOTH GFS/ETA CONT TO SHOW WEAKER UPR DVGC/UVV AS WELL AS LESS MOISTENING ACRS THE SE...SO SN AMTS ADJUSTED DOWN THERE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WL BE PCPN TYPE OVER THE LK MI ZNS...WHERE GFS SHOWS H100-85 THKNS RISING TOWARD 1320M LATE AND ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WITH LYR OF ABV FRZG AIR ALF NR H85. CONSIDERING THE CONTD AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND LO DWPT AIR ALREADY ADVECTING INTO CWA...THINK FCST OF H100-85 THKNS RISING SO QUICKLY IS OFF THE MARK. WL HOWEVER INCLUDE MENTION OF SLEET/RA IN THESE AREAS. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PCPN SUN MRNG BEFORE MAIN UPR WAVE/SFC LO TRACK NE. WITH PREFERENCE HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS PER THE NEW UKMET AS WELL GIVEN INPUT FM SURROUNDING OFFICES...MIXED PCPN OVER THE E WL CHG TO MAINLY RA WITH INCRSG H100-85 THKNS. SINCE LLVL NE FLOW WL TEND TO MAINTAIN CAD...WL HAVE TO MAINTAIN A MIX OF -FZRA/IP AS WELL AT LEAST ACRS THE ECNTRL. BLSN WL BCM A PROBLEM ACRS THE WRN ZNS... WHICH WL REMAIN ON THE FVRBL CYC SIDE OF H7 LO TRACK AND HAVE BETTER CHC TO MISS PSBL DRY SLOTTING AS WELL AS STAYING ALL SN. SO SIZEABLE ACCUM PSBL IN THIS AREA. PCPN WL TEND TO CHG BACK TO ALL SN WITH DEFORMATION ZN SHIFTING E...BUT SE ZNS SHUD DOWNSLOPE WITH NW FLOW TO HOLD DOWN ACCUMS THAT AREA. RUNNING OUT OF TIME...SO NO TIME TO DISCUSS FURTHER. WL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES WITH SLGT CHGS TO TIMING. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPR PATTERN TRANSITIONING RPDLY TO A MORE ZONAL ONE MID WEEK WITH A SHALLOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG LOOK AFTER DEPARTURE OF BIG WEEKEND STORM SYS ON MON...WITH MODEL TREND TOWARD A FASTER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR TUE WITH ONSET OF OVRRNG. ALTHOUGH NO BIG STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER MON...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON A NUMBER OF WEAKER WAD EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS LIFTING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FRUITLESS...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS TUE NGT-FRI. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SOLN THU-FRI SO THAT PCPN COULD BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARD LOWER THKNS WITH ALL SN. SO TEMPS LOWER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE SAT AFTN AND NIGHT MIZ004-005. WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084. && KC $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG FLOW ALF ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS TO THE N OF WSW-ENE UPR RDG ORIENTED FM MEXICO THRU THE SE CONUS. SHRTWV LIFTING ENEWD THRU ONTARIO THIS MRNG WITH ACCOMPANYING 140KT H3 JET MAX OVER THE CWA AT 12Z. AIRMASS STREAMING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV AND BEHIND H85 COLD FNT NOW THE SE OF FA IS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BLO 0.20 INCH. 12Z INL SDNG SHOWS INVRN HGT JUST ABV H85...BUT LLVLS QUITE DRY WITH ACYC FLOW ARND SFC RDG BEHIND THE FNT. SO NOTHING MORE THAN LK SC OVER THE WRN ZONES DESPITE H85 TEMP OF -14C AT INL (DELTA T ARPCHG 17C OVER WRN LK SUP). BUT HI CLDS STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS AND EVEN SOME LGT SN OVER WRN SD IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX WRN TROF...AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROF. MOST POTENT OF THESE IS COMING ASHORE IN NRN CA THIS MRNG AND CAUSING 12HR H3/H5 HGT FALLS AS GREAT AS 150M/120M FM BOISE TO ELKO IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. H3/H5 WND SPEEDS AS HI AS 140KT/100KT IN THE ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK...AND H5 TEMPS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ADVECTING INTO THE UPR TROF NEAR -40C. IN CONTRAST...H85 TEMPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z AS HI AS 20C...VS -20C OVER ALBERTA. AIRMASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS HOWEVER IS QUITE DRY (PWAT NOT MUCH ABOVE 0.50 INCH EVEN NR GLFMEX SHORE)...WITH GLFMEX CLOSED AT LEAST FOR NOW. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND PROGRESSION OF BIG WRN TROF AND IMPACT OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THIS TROF ON MSLP FIELD/SN AMTS/PCPN TYPE OVER CWA. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTER TERM FCST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEN A DIVERGENCE OF OPINION ON TRACK OF RESULTING SFC LO. GFS/OLD ECMWF TENDS TO DVLP SFC LO MORE AND TAKE SYS FARTHER W THAN ETA/CNDN SOLNS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN THERMAL TROF WELL TO THE W OF CWA AND TENDENCY FOR WARMING RELATED TO THE GRT LKS TO DEFLECT LOWS FARTHER W EARLY IN THE SEASON WOULD FAVOR THE FARTHER W SOLN...HAVE COMPROMISED A BIT TOWARD THE WEAKER ETA GIVEN NCEP MODEL PREFERENCES. THIS SOLN MIGHT BE RSNBL IF ENUF LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC CAD ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTGENESIS CIRCULATION MAINTAINS MAIN LLVL BAROCLINIC ZN FARTHER SE. BUT OVERALL...TENDED MORE TOWARD GFS GUIDANCE. FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR TNGT IS POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF -SN IN SD TO STREAK NE INTO FA...AS FCST BY BOTH ETA/GFS. WHILE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CERTAINLY A NEGATIVE...ETA/GFS SHOW INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290K SFC (ARND H725) WITH BAND OF H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF DEPARTING 140KT H3 JET MAX (THE POSITION OF WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH CURRENT LOCATION OF AREA OF -SN IN SD) PASSING OVHD OVRNGT AS WELL. ETA BUFKIT SDNGS INDICATE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UVV MAX APRCHG 10UB/SEC CENTERED ANRD ALTITUDE OF -12C TO -15C TEMPS FVRG MAX SN GROWTH. BETTER UPR DVGC APPEARS TO TRACK OVER WRN ZNS...WHILE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPACTS THE E...SO WL GO WITH OCNL -SN/FLURRIES DVLPG OVERNGT WITH LESSER PCPN ACRS THE E PER DRIER FCST MODEL SDNGS THERE. GFS/ETA QPF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH...WHICH SEEMS RSNBL CONSIDERING DRY AIR UNDER FVRBL FORCING ALF. FCST H100-85 THKNS AND OBSVD MINS UPSTREAM FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIER GFS/ETA MOS FCST FOR MINS. ALTHOUGH UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF DEPARTING JET MAX LIFTS TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK ON SAT...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABV SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZN ACRS THE CWA SHUD MAINTAIN OCNL -SN/ FLURRIES IN THE MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWA WHERE UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL PREVAIL. SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP DURG THE AFTN...WHEN GFS SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/H7 UVV WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL H100-85 THKNS ARND 1300M PROGGED TO BE NEAR SE ZNS...SUSPECT AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FCST FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN A COLD ENUF PROFILE FOR ALL SN EVEN NR LK MI. IMXR METHOD SUGS UP TO 3" SN/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS FIGURE DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING DRY AIR AND LIMITED WINDOW OF SGNFT PCPN CONFINED TO THE AFTN...WITH HIEST AMTS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW DEEPER SATURATION OVER ONLY THE WRN ZNS WITH BETTER UPR DVGC...SO LESS SN ACRS THE E. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LWR ETA FCST TMAX. BETTER UPR DVGC/H7 UVV PROGGED TO IMPACT CWA...MAINLY THE W HALF... MOST OF SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHRTWV TO THE NE. DURG ALL THIS TIME...MAIN SFC LO REMAINS WELL S OF CWA. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL ENHANCE SN FALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE WRN ZNS. IMXR METHOD CONTS TO POINT TOWARD 3"/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS AMT UPWARD IN FVRD UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF (ESPECIALLY SINCE ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW A 4-5K FT DEPTH OF NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NE FLOW AT MQT). ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW UVV MAX BLO BETTER RANGE OF SN GROWTH TEMPS...THERE IS STILL SGNFT UVV FCST WITHIN THE FVRBL RANGE. BOTH GFS/ETA CONT TO SHOW WEAKER UPR DVGC/UVV AS WELL AS LESS MOISTENING ACRS THE SE...SO SN AMTS ADJUSTED DOWN THERE. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WL BE PCPN TYPE OVER THE LK MI ZNS...WHERE GFS SHOWS H100-85 THKNS RISING TOWARD 1320M LATE AND ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WITH LYR OF ABV FRZG AIR ALF NR H85. CONSIDERING THE CONTD AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND LO DWPT AIR ALREADY ADVECTING INTO CWA...THINK FCST OF H100-85 THKNS RISING SO QUICKLY IS OFF THE MARK. WL HOWEVER INCLUDE MENTION OF SLEET/RA IN THESE AREAS. LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PCPN SUN MRNG BEFORE MAIN UPR WAVE/SFC LO TRACK NE. WITH PREFERENCE HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS PER THE NEW UKMET AS WELL GIVEN INPUT FM SURROUNDING OFFICES...MIXED PCPN OVER THE E WL CHG TO MAINLY RA WITH INCRSG H100-85 THKNS. SINCE LLVL NE FLOW WL TEND TO MAINTAIN CAD...WL HAVE TO MAINTAIN A MIX OF -FZRA/IP AS WELL AT LEAST ACRS THE ECNTRL. BLSN WL BCM A PROBLEM ACRS THE WRN ZNS... WHICH WL REMAIN ON THE FVRBL CYC SIDE OF H7 LO TRACK AND HAVE BETTER CHC TO MISS PSBL DRY SLOTTING AS WELL AS STAYING ALL SN. SO SIZEABLE ACCUM PSBL IN THIS AREA. PCPN WL TEND TO CHG BACK TO ALL SN WITH DEFORMATION ZN SHIFTING E...BUT SE ZNS SHUD DOWNSLOPE WITH NW FLOW TO HOLD DOWN ACCUMS THAT AREA. RUNNING OUT OF TIME...SO NO TIME TO DISCUSS FURTHER. WL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES WITH SLGT CHGS TO TIMING. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPR PATTERN TRANSITIONING RPDLY TO A MORE ZONAL ONE MID WEEK WITH A SHALLOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG LOOK AFTER DEPARTURE OF BIG WEEKEND STORM SYS ON MON...WITH MODEL TREND TOWARD A FASTER DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR TUE WITH ONSET OF OVRRNG. ALTHOUGH NO BIG STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER MON...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON A NUMBER OF WEAKER WAD EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS LIFTING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FRUITLESS...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS TUE NGT-FRI. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SOLN THU-FRI SO THAT PCPN COULD BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARD LOWER THKNS WITH ALL SN. SO TEMPS LOWER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE SAT AFTN AND NIGHT MIZ004-005. WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1040 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .UPDATE... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE TOLEDO AREA AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12Z ETA AND CURRENT RUC INDICATE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. BASED ON THE 12Z RAOBS...ETA HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON 925MB TEMPS. THE ETA SOLUTION ONLY DROPS 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 9 DEG C BY 21Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 DOWN AROUND THE OHIO BORDER...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION WHERE 925MB TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND +2C. WITH CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S...WILL INCREASE FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE CIRRUS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE THIN...WITH MOST LOCALS ACTUALLY SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER IN THE ZONES/GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. && CONSIDINE .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM EST. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. IR SATELLITE/RADARS SHOW FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FIRST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ETA/GFS ARE NOW OVERALL SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. ETA HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY...DEVELOPING MORE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER THE ETA IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION GIVEN THE MORE WRAPPED-UP UPPER SYSTEM. 00Z CANADIAN MAINTAINS ITS OPEN WAVE /AND IS NOW MORE OF AN OUTLIER/ BUT IS STILL SIMILAR TO THE ETA/GFS TIMING WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND NONE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT WITH IT BEING MAINLY CIRRUS WILL STICK WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY. ETA/GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST THROUGH F24 THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER HIGHS WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT THAT IS ABOUT 5-10F COLDER SOUTH TO NORTH THAN OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT FRONT IS JUST APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 08Z OBSERVATIONS AT MBS/BAX ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY. THIS ACTUAL TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN RECENT GUIDANCE /00Z MOS AS WELL AS 05Z LAMP/. MAY SEE MORE OF A TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN CWA. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS BEGIN TO APPEAR TONIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS ENERGY RIPPLES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...OLD BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ETA...WITH THE NGM IN BETWEEN. ETA/GFS HAVE SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL JETS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA POSITION GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING AND WITH IT FIGHTING THE STABILIZING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE COOL LAKES HURON/ERIE. THIS HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP PRECIP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PROFILES SHOW NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL 850MB AND BELOW...AND GOOD SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER VORT IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH AND DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BY A COUPLE DEGREES...STILL LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ETA FRONTAL TIMING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CUT OFF ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE EXISTING BOUNDARY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN VEERS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. THIS HELPS TO PULL THE WARM FRONT FARTHER NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ALSO RESULTS IN THE MAIN PRECIP FOCUS BEING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT DRY SLOTTED IN THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL. WILL SCALE BACK ON THE PRECIP AND POP WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA A BIT...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE WORDING. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST WILL ACTUALLY BUMP POPS UP A BIT CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. WITH GRADIENT IN POPS WILL ALSO KEEP THE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES...BUMPING THEM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN STORY FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT POPS ARE LIKELY THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ETA/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WHICH HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP TIMING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ETA SOLUTION GIVEN THE WRAPPED-UP NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER WILL SPEED TIMING UP A BIT COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECAST. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 00Z ETA WOULD KEEP LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN MORE OF A SCATTERED MIX SHRA/SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ON DROPPING LOWS TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CUT HIGHS BACK ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION... TEMPS/CLOUDS ONLY UPDATE CONCERNS MAIN SFC FRONT IN AREA IS SLIDING INTO SE LWR MI ATTM WITH STIFF W/NW WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER DAY THAN 24 HRS AGO. NEITHER ETA/RUC PEGGING STRONGER 15-30KT WINDS ACROSS NRN UPR MI/LK SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVR NRN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO REGION...WOULD IMAGINE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C DOES BEGIN TO RETREAT LATER AFTN AS WELL. WINDS REMAINING FM W/NW SHOULD WITH ANY CLOUD COVER WILL PROHIBIT MUCH RISE FM CURRENT 30-35F READINGS. PLACES THAT ARE MAINLY CLOUDY NOW (KEWEENAW PENINSULA DUE TO LK CLOUDS AND SRN ZONES FM MID LEVEL CLOUDS) SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR GOOD PORTION OF DAY. MINIMAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY/INVERSION HTS AROUND 900MB SO HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FOR AFTN. STRIPE OF CLEAR SKIES FM GOGEBIC INTO NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHRINK AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS EDGE NWD. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS UPR DIVERGENCE FM 110KT JET PASSES OVER CWA THIS AFTN WHICH WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN150 CLOUDS FM SRN SD/MN INTO CNTRL WI TO SPILL ACROSS UPR MI. PLAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT MIZ004-005 WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1000 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2003 UPDATED TO REMOVE FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION FROM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORY SECTION. .DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC INDICATES EARLY MORNING WINDSHIFT INTO NE CORNER WON/T HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SLY BY MIDDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS NORTH AND FROM EAST SLPS CNTRL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT SAT/SUN WITH ETA SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THEREFORE POSITION OF SURFACE LOW VARIES. REGARDLESS... STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH FAR NE MAY BE QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING WHERE THE SFC LOW ENDS UP. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS WHICH TEND TO IN NW FLOW. AS FOR SNOW...DUE TO THE STRONG WLYS...SOME OF THE USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES BY SUNDAY...SUCH AS CHAMA AND RED RIVER...BUT ATTM DOESN/T LOOK PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS. MONDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A DAY OF MODERATION...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TUESDAY. GFS SHOWS SOME LINGERING PCPN POSSIBLE EARLY WED NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON................ 060/032 046/020 035 48012 GALLUP.................... 062/028 046/014 034 48011 GRANTS.................... 064/028 051/015 033 48000 GLENWOOD.................. 072/036 055/026 050 48000 CHAMA..................... 053/022 039/008 024 48013 LOS ALAMOS................ 057/032 045/015 030 48001 RED RIVER................. 052/021 043/010 023 48003 TAOS...................... 057/027 049/018 029 48002 SANTA FE.................. 060/030 050/019 032 48000 SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 062/032 053/023 034 48000 ESPANOLA.................. 064/029 052/019 037 48000 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 065/038 055/029 039 48000 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 067/037 056/023 040 48000 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 061/039 050/026 036 48000 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 067/040 056/025 039 48000 SOCORRO................... 069/037 059/024 043 48000 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 061/036 050/025 033 48000 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 066/030 052/017 035 48000 CARRIZOZO................. 073/038 063/028 042 48000 RUIDOSO................... 066/035 058/022 038 48000 RATON..................... 068/026 050/016 028 48002 LAS VEGAS................. 069/032 053/018 030 48001 ROY....................... 068/033 055/021 029 48001 CLAYTON................... 069/039 060/024 029 48001 SANTA ROSA................ 074/037 063/024 034 48000 TUCUMCARI................. 078/043 070/031 039 48000 FORT SUMNER............... 076/038 063/026 037 48000 CLOVIS.................... 078/043 070/029 039 48000 PORTALES.................. 077/042 070/028 040 48000 ROSWELL................... 079/040 072/036 047 48000 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 905 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...ONLY QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON 18Z RUC AND ETA RUNS AS WELL AS THE 12Z RUNS OF WORKSTATION ETA...MM5 AND OTHER MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR DEW TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT DEW POINTS. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DATABASE. HAVE ALSO MODIFIED WINDS (LOWERED SPEEDS) BASED ON 12Z 4KM MM5 WHICH IS CLOSEST TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME SCT CIRRUS, AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS AFD, WILL COME IN BEFORE MORNING AS PER 18Z ETA RH FIELD AND ADVECTION OF CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY THIN. THE CIRRUS SHOULD GET OUT OF HERE BEFORE NOON. DATABASE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEXT WEEKS RAIN EVENTS. ******************* PREVIOUS 200 PM FORECAST ************************ SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. MID-RANGE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA AGREE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BONE DRY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND DON'T INCREASE MOISTURE CONTENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER...I FEEL THAT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SET UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF THE MEAN FLOW BELOW 500 HPA WITH A FETCH FROM THE GULF...HAVE TO THINK THAT WE WILL BE MORE MOIST THAN THEY INDICATE. THIS SHOULD ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS PRESENT FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH US WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND LEAVE THE DATABASE AS IS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MODELS DON'T SUGGEST THAT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ************** END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ************************ && .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED GROUND FOG IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IS EXPECT TO BE CONFINED TO HPN...MGJ AND POU. IT'S NOT IN THE TAF FOR HPN YET AND WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR 06 ISSUANCE. IN THE POCKETS OF FOG IFR CONDITION WOULD FORM. THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SE OF CAPE COD MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO RE-DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN A NON-SIGNIFICANT SHOWER EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD GIVE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AMBLE OPPORTUNITY TO SETTLE BACK DOWN AFTER THE HEAVY RAINS A FEW DAYS AGO. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ DATABASE...TONGUE AVIATION...AMBERGER (LAST) ny EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 635 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2003 COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON FRONTAL POSITIONING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS...AND HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. UPDATED FORECAST ISSUED SHORTLY TO EXPAND COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST ID= 07 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. $$ ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 715 PM MST THU NOV 20 2003 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS INVERTED TROF ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MOST OF THE EVENING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS...EASTWARD TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT RUC KEEPS SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS HAS BROUGHT SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS/TEMPS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY... .WY...NONE. && sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 340 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CURRENT SNOW SITUATION...AND SECOND WINTER STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST OBS AND 88D RETURNS SHOW BROAD AREA OF SNOW LINING UP WITH RUC H70 FRONTOGENESIS. SA THIS AREA SLIDES EASTWARD..BASED ON ETA DEPICTION...SHOULD SEE LOW END ADVISORY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH WIND TONIGHT. MODELS APPEAR CLOSER...BUT STILL A BIT APART...ONT THE SOLUTION FOR THE MAJOR SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRACK PLACES MOST...IF NOT ALL..THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. ETA SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS WELL ENTRENCHED AT H70 OVER FSD AREA...AND SOME NEGATIVE EPV* SOUTH OF THAT. DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SKIRT MY SE CWA...SO EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN CURRENT LOW TRACK WILL BRING MY FAR SE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER SNOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND. PRUDENT THING TO DO IS ISSUE THE WATCH UNTIL EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CAN BE CONFIRMED. RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...CLOUDS...AND CAA WILL LIMIT BOTH DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS AND ABILITY TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AT NIGHT. STILL...TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAT RECENT MEMORY...AND WINDCHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US. FIRST S/WV EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY. 290K THETA SFC SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA. ALSO COULD SEE SOME ADDED LIFT WITH A 110KT JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AND SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. GFS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN CO...AND PUSHING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS LOOK MORE CERTAIN. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER HOLDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. ALSO H85 TEMPS STAY NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF WARMTH FROM MIXING AS WELL. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WX ADV FOR SNOW ENTIRE CWA TROUGH SAT MORNING. ...WINTER STORM WATCH EASTERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && $$ HARDING/ALBRECHT sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 335 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003 .DISCUSSION... MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONES AND GRIDS...MAINLY TO BUMP UP THE WINDS A CAT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXIST THERE. TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT BUT NOT MUCH AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP CHANCES AS LATEST MODELS STILL HAVE SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT RUC2 AND ETA SOUNDINGS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE...SO SNOW SHOULDNT BEGIN TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND UNTIL 19-21Z TIME FRAME. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... IN THE SHORT TERM...DECENT MID LEVEL FNTLGEN WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACRS FAR NRN CWA. HOWVR...LOW LEVEL DRY ELY FLOW WILL KEEP LAYER FRO BECOMING SATURATED AND WL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. SO FEEL ONLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT BEST THIS AFTN. ANOTHER WK S/W TONIGHT ACRS CWA...BUT AGAIN DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. BEST LIFT WL BE ACRS NRN CWA AND WILL GO HIGHEST POP THERE...BUT STILL ONLY A CHC. NOT MUCH TO GRAB ONTO FOR SAT EXCEPT FOR WEKA LIFT AND PERSISTENT FNTGEN. LOW LEVELS WL SLOWLY BECOME SATURATED AS SFC WAVE FINALLY LIFTS NEWD OUT OF SRN ROCKIES. WL KEEP CHC OF LIGHT SNOW GOING ESPC N OF I90. TEMPS WL REMAIN COLD WITH NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SRN CWA WL SEE MORE SUN TODAY AND SHUD HEAT OUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUID PROGS. MAJOR STORM STILL BEING PROGGED LATE THIS WEEKEND BY MODELS AND ALL GETTING CLOSER TO ORIGINAL GFS SOLUTION. SOME DIF IN UPPER AIR AND SFC SOLUTIONS WITH CANADIEN MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH LESS NEGATIVE TILT. MOST MODELS HAVE SFC WAVE MOVE NEWD INTO ERN IA BY 18Z SUN. ETA HAS TYPICAL PRECIP BIAS WITH SHIFTING HEAVIEST PRECIP EWD WITH TIME. FEEL BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW WL FALL E OF JAMES RVR VALLEY. IF WAVE IS MORE OPEN THEN AMOUNTS WL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ETA OR GFS SOLUTION. STILL FEEL 12 INCHES PSBL WITH THIS STORM WITH BULK FALLING LATE SAT NITE INTO SUN. BUFFALO RIDGE CUD GET EVEN MORE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW AS PLACMENT OF SNOW STILL NOT CERTAIN AND MOST LIKELY WL BE LATE 4TH INTO 5TH PD. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED CHC OF ZR- ACRS NW IA SAT EVE AS MID LEVEL COOLING SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS AND CUD START OUT AS ZR- BEFORE STG LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS MON NITE WITH FREST SNOW COVER. ALSO A WEAK S/W WL MOVE ACRS CWA TUES AND BROUGHT IN MORE CLDS. WL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR NOW. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 515 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003 .SHORT TERM... COLD FRONT AT 09Z FROM NEAR DALHART TO NEAR WHEELER MOVING SOUTH AS SHOWN BY AMA WSR88D. 10-15F TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS FRONT WITH MAX PRSR RISES OF 4 MB/3 HR ACROSS SE CO. THE MOTION OF THIS FRONT TODAY WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. THE 06 RUC PROVIDES THE MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT DISPOSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND IT FCSTS THE CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO THE NW COUNTIES OF THE SPLNS BY 12Z AND MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z. ONCE THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...IT MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THAN WHAT THE 0Z ETA/GFS SHOW. THESE MODELS ALONG WITH THE 0Z MM5 DEPICT SFC WINDS TO RESPOND TO LEE- CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO BY FRI AFTN. FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO QUICKLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME OFF THE CAPROCK. ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. MAY SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFF ACROSS THE SPLNS TODAY...WITH THE SW COUNTIES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES AND THE NE STUCK IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR WITH THE VARIABLES OF CDFNT POSITION...DEPTH...AND STRENGTH OF CYCLOGENESIS. AS UPPER-LEVEL SYS SWINGS INTO THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS SHOULD PICKUP AS SFC LOW IN SO COLO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHUD ALSO SEE INCREASING CIRRUS RESULTING IN A MILD NIGHT. THX MAF/AMA FOR COORDINATION. MC. .LONG TERM... STRONG SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OK ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY FOR SAT. HOWEVER... AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWFA SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE CWFA BY SUN MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUMMETING SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THOSE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT DO NOT EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SUN MORNING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY EXPERIENCE IT MON MORNING. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT. IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION AROUND FRI...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE MINOR. JH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 68 39 72 26 / 0 0 0 10 TULIA 68 40 72 26 / 0 0 0 10 PLAINVIEW 69 41 73 28 / 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 75 42 75 30 / 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 75 44 75 30 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 79 44 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 68 47 72 33 / 0 0 0 10 SPUR 76 47 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 80 49 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33/02 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003 ...PRELIMINARY FORECAST DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... COLD FRONT AT 09Z FROM NEAR DALHART TO NEAR WHEELER MOVING SOUTH AS SHOWN BY AMA WSR88D. 10-15F TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS FRONT WITH MAX PRSR RISES OF 4 MB/3 HR ACROSS SE CO. THE MOTION OF THIS FRONT TODAY WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. THE 06 RUC PROVIDES THE MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT DISPOSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND IT FCSTS THE CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO THE NW COUNTIES OF THE SPLNS BY 12Z AND MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z. ONCE THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...IT MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THAN WHAT THE 0Z ETA/GFS SHOW. THESE MODELS ALONG WITH THE 0Z MM5 DEPICT SFC WINDS TO RESPOND TO LEE- CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO BY FRI AFTN. FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO QUICKLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME OFF THE CAPROCK. ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. MAY SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFF ACROSS THE SPLNS TODAY...WITH THE SW COUNTIES APPROACHING 80 DEGREES AND THE NE STUCK IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE ROOM FOR ERROR WITH THE VARIABLES OF CDFNT POSITION...DEPTH...AND STRENGTH OF CYCLOGENESIS. AS UPPER-LEVEL SYS SWINGS INTO THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS SHOULD PICKUP AS SFC LOW IN SO COLO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHUD ALSO SEE INCREASING CIRRUS RESULTING IN A MILD NIGHT. THX MAF/AMA FOR COORDINATION. MC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 68 39 72 26 / 0 0 0 10 TULIA 68 40 72 26 / 0 0 0 10 PLAINVIEW 69 41 73 28 / 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 75 42 75 30 / 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 75 44 75 30 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 79 44 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 68 47 72 33 / 0 0 0 10 SPUR 76 47 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 80 49 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33/02 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 840 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...ONGOING CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MID EVENING KSFO-KLAS SURFACE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED TO A VERY ROBUST 20.2 MB. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW DIVING INTO THE CWFA...WITH A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT H25 JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. JAWBONE AND INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAWS...ALONG WITH GOVERNMENT PEAK ARPS HAVE ALL REGISTERED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THIS EVENING...EASILY ACHIEVING WAD CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF THESE WINDS...OR STRONGER...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENT LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET PASSES OVER THE KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. RUC H7 PROGS SUGGEST SOLID DVM DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION BY 12Z. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW TO ENSURE THEY DO NOT LAPSE INTO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE KSFO-KLAS SURFACE GRADIENT PROJECTED TO RELAX TO 9-10 MB BY 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TENDENCY FOR INCREASED SURFACE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DOWNWARD TRANSPORT SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET. ANOTHER POINT OF CONTENTION INVOLVES STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED OVER 20 DEGF IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR VALLEY...WITH MUCH SMALLER DROPS THUS FAR AT THE SOUTH END. VALLEY PROFILERS AND KHNX VWP SHOW STRONG NW FLOW IN AND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REALLY DO NOT THINK DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN OVERNIGHT. IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE TEMPERATURE AIDS SUGGEST LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LIMITED TO AREAS EXTREMELY SHELTERED FROM THE WIND...IF EVEN THERE. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THESE ASPECTS COVERED VERY WELL AND WILL NOT UPDATE. .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROGS BRING A DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUCCESSIVE RUNS THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 18Z RUN PUSHES A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS BEING SLOWER WITH IT/S SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WILL BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL CA FROM OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WILL TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATING ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WHICH WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CA. A DEFORMATION BAND THEN IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 7 ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWFA EXCEPT IN THE KERN DESERTS. THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD INHIBIT TULE FOG FORMATION IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN && $$ BURGER/DS ca WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 925 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003 .DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE CWA AND THE MSAS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE STATES...WITH A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF. STLT AND MTR OBS SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER GONE. PUBLIC ZONES ON TRACK AND WILL UPDATE AROUND 930 ONLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG IN THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOY DATA SUPPORT ONGOING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND WILL ISSUE BY 1020 WITH OUT CHANGE. .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ RKR fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1044 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003 .UPDATE...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE MICHIGAN/OHIO STATE LINE. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS...LIKELY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE M-59 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AS TEMP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...PARTICULARLY THE ETA...OVERESTIMATED THE 925MB TEMPS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND COLDER AIR BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION THAN INDICATED BY MODELS...WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES NORTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO DETROIT LINE. MESO ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT THE CURRENT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTICED QUITE A BIT OF IFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THEREFORE...THINK MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY EXPAND IT SOUTH TO THE M-59 CORRIDOR. && CONSIDINE .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 408 AM. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHEAR AXIS/SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...OTHERWISE A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC COAST BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI...WITH DEVELOPING LOW STILL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NO PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER CEILINGS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...MAKING EXACT DETAILS SOMEWHAT SKETCHY BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REASONABLE. GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CLOSING OFF A CIRCULATION AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY MONDAY. ETA HAS PLAYED CATCHUP WITH THE GFS...AND A DPROG-DT AT F48 /00Z MONDAY/ ALMOST LOOKS MORE LIKE A TIME PROGRESSION THAN A TREND AT A SINGLE TIMESTEP. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ETA CONTINUES TO BE FASTER/FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP. MAIN DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST IMPACT ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ADDRESS THOSE LATER IN THIS DISCUSSION. FOR TODAY THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM..THE ETA LOOKED TO BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. ALSO BETTER MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE OVER MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP. FARTHER NORTH THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP IN A CHANCE. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION...WITH LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH. AS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL IS LACKING...WILL KEEP THE PRECIP MENTION TO JUST DRIZZLE. SHOULD SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY /UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH/. LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW IN THE BASE ROTATING UP THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER ENERGY...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY...AND MOVES INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS PER GFS/ETA. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING VERY MUCH...AND EVENTUALLY RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT TOO SURE ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL REMOVE POPS SOUTH OF PHN-PTK-ARB...BUT LEAVE A CHANCE IN FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. SIMILAR THINKING CARRIES OVER INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER GFS/ETA. FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD SEE EVEN MORE DRY SLOTTING DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE SOLUTION TO PULL PRECIP OUT JUST YET. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE SOME SUN. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST AND NORTH CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR/JUST BELOW 0C. ACTUALLY WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK...WE COULD SQUEEZE SOME THUNDER IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WILL JUST ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AREAS WITH THE HIGHER POPS/SCATTERED WORDING. MAIN STORY OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING OVER 1.2". THIS IS ALMOST 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR DTX...AND WOULD BE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF IT PANS OUT. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH +50KT 850MB JET CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE STATE SUNDAY/INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST 500MB JET /+110KTS/ LAGS THE 850MB JET AND FROPA...NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. HOWEVER ALONG THE FRONT THERE IS STILL A GOOD 80KTS AT 500MB. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP/CUTTING OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ETA/GFS BOTH DEPICT +300M 12H HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB /ETA CONTINUING TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS...12Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 18Z/. TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR FROPA DURING THE NIGHT...AND EVEN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WILL OPT FOR A CATEGORICAL WORDING/80 PERCENT CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER MARGINAL...BUT WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND PROFILE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA MOVING EAST. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY...LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS WELL. ETA IS FASTER BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN...7C COLDER AT 850MB/16M LOWER WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BY 12Z MONDAY. ITS EVEN LOWER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER FOR SOME VERY STRANGE REASON THE ETA-MOS GUIDANCE IS WARMER THAN THE GFS-MOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. TO THE TUNE OF 20 DEGREES. THE ETA IS TOO WARM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...AND THE GFS IS TOO COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. COULD UNDERSTAND SOME SORT OF DISCREPANCY GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT/THERMAL GRADIENT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO REASON FOR THE FASTER /AND THEREFORE COLDER/ ETA TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL LEAVE LOW TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY AROUND 40F...ALTHOUGH TAPERED A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND AGAIN WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH VERY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE STATE BEHIND IT ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS DROP NEAR -13C BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 7-9C PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS/BUOY OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL SEE A DELTA-T AROUND 20C. GOOD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH 1000-850MB RH OVER 85 PERCENT...AS WELL AS GOOD LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG...WITH 1000-850MB FLOW NEAR 40KTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY. WILL WILL HELP TO SPREAD LAKE EFFECT OFF MICHIGAN WELL ACROSS THE STATE. IT WILL ALSO WORK TO PREVENT ORGANIZED BANDING...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LAYING DOWN LITTLE ACCUMULATION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1005 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003 .DISCUSSION... ...SHORT TERM (THIS AFTN)... 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG FLOW ALF OVER THE CONUS. SHARP WSW-ENE ORIENTED AND SHALLOW SFC-H85 FRONTAL ZONE NOTED FM THE PLAINS INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES. AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING AWAY FM MAIN WRN TROF AND OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES NOTED NR THIS BNDRY IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MOVG NE TOWARD THE CNTRL GRT LKS...BUT LTL PCPN OBSVD SO FAR WITH FNT STILL CUTOFF FM GLFMEX MSTR (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT). ANOTHER BAND OF COLDER CLD TOPS NOTED WELL N OF THE MAIN FNT TOWARD CENTER OF DEEPER COLD AIR AND ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN. THIS AREA OF DEEPER CLD/-SN LINKED TO RATHER SHEARED LOOKING SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IN DEEPER COLD AIR AS DEPICTED ON 06Z ETA F6 280K SFC. ALTHOUGH ERN EDGE OF NRN CLD SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO WRN LK SUP...DRY AIR WEDGE ARND H85 AS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB/APX SDNGS...AND EVEN DEEPER DRY AIR SHOWN ON 12Z INL SDNG (SFC DWPTS AOB 10F N OF LK SUP AS FAR S OF CKC ON THE MN NORTHSHORE)...HAS PREVENTED ANYTHING MORE THAN LGT SN/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF CWA. TEMPS AS LO AS THE UPR 20S ACRS THE WRN ZNS...BUT AS HIGH AS 35 TO 37 OVER THE E. DESPITE SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIR...BOTH 12Z GRB AND APX SDNGS INDICATE RATHER STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES BLO LO FNTL INVRN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTN ARE PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE/PSBL SN AMTS/ GOING HEADLINES. BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-295K SFCS (H875-7) DURG THE AFTN AS SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM THE CNTRL PLAINS MOVES INTO WI. BOTH RUC AND ETA CONCUR DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS FARTHER N OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE W HALF OF CWA THIS AFTN WHERE INITIALLY DRY AIR HAS A LONGER PD OF LIFT TO ACHIEVE SATURATION AND WHERE UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IS A BIT MORE INTENSE. SO GOING FCST OF SN BECMG STEADIER OVER THE WRN HALF THIS AFTN APPEARS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE IMXR METHOD WOULD SUG UP TO 3"/ 6 HRS IS PSBL...THINK DRY ADVCTN (OF AIRMASS DEPICTED ON 12Z INL SDNG AND N OF LK SUP) ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC...CROSS ISOBARIC LLVL FLOW IN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENING TEMP GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT WL HOLD ACCUMS DOWN TO AN INCH DESPITE SOME UPSLOPING OVER HIER TERRAIN W OF MQT. THIS THEORY BACKED UP BY SATURATION OCCURRING LATER ON 280K SFC (ARND H85 WHERE INITIAL DRY WEDGE LOCATED). ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT RATHER DISORGANIZED LOOK TO COLDER CLD TOP PATTERN THIS MRNG...WITH SEPARATE UNPHASED SHRTWVS/CLD LEAFS...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO HOLD FCST SN AMTS DOWN. OVER THE E...LOOK FOR NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FOR THE AFTN. RUC FCST SDNG FOR MNM SHOWS DEPTH OF >0C WBLB IS DEEPER THAN 1K FT THIS AFTN... DEEP ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN. SINCE SYS LOOKS MORE DISORGANIZED ATTM AND DRY ADVCTN WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT SN ACCUMS...HAVE OPTED TO PUSH BACK START OF WINTER STORM WRNG HEADLINE FOR THE WRN ZNS UNTIL 6 PM. SEE DISCUSSION BLO FOR DETAILS ON TNGT. KC ...LONGER TERM (FM MIDNGT SHIFT)... LOOKS LIKE THE ETA IS TOO FAST AND TO FAR N WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN VORT CURRENTLY OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. NOT SURE WHAT THIS WILL DO WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...SINCE THE ETA IS STILL FURTHER E WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA DID NOT ANALYZE THE HIGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS STRONG ENOUGH WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIGHTLY FURTHER E THAN WHAT THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE STILL 2 CAMPS...WITH THE ETA AND CANADIAN GLOBAL STILL TRACKING EAST FROM GRB TO WHITEFISH PT...WITH THE GFS TRACKING WEST OVER CENTRAL UPR MICH. TRACK OF THE LOW DEPENDS DIRECTLY ON WHEN OF IF THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF AND THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVE. TOUGH TO SAY RIGHT NOW AS SYSTEM JUST COMING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...THE PCPN TYPE FCST IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH IT IS COMING A LITTLE BETTER INTO FOCUS. IMAGINE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY SHARP RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH LITTLE ICE EXPECTED. HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE ALL RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW ON PCPN TYPE SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE FIRST NEED TO FOCUS ON THE NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT. LATEST ETA PROGS SHOW A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SW-NE ORIENTED AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS(FGEN) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE ASSOCIATED RESPONSE OF 650-600MB FN VECTOR DIV IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN FGEN BAND. THE BEST AGEO VERT CIRC ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FROM GOGEBIC TO BARAGA/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ETA ALSO SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF DRY AIR AROUND 650MB WHICH ADVECTS INTO THIS SAME AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS FGEN AREA IS ALSO COUPLED WITH A DUAL JET STRUCTURE...WITH UPR DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. WITH THIS BAND MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN UP...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE WEST WILL SEE THE BEST SNOW TONIGHT. NOW IT SEEMS THAT DESPITE UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK...MARQUETTE COUNTY MIGHT BE SPARED WARN CRITERIA SNOW TONIGHT AS BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE WEST. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARN CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS SRN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMBINED WITH FGEN FORCING MAY PUSH AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO WATERSMEET INTO WARN CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING(THRU MON) FOR THAT AREA...BUT WILL STICK TO A SNOW ADVY FOR MQT...IRON AND NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE MAIN SYSTEM SUN INTO MON MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE TRACK MIGHT GO...BUT CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH WOULD TRACK THE OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY MON MORNING. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREV RUNS. 850MB TEMP SPREAD OVER THE CWFA IS GREATER THAN 10C...SO THERE ARE PCPN TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. LATEST TRACK WOULD TURN THE EAST TO ALL RAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +9C WITH SFC WINDS OVER LUC/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES BECOMING SLY. TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STAY NE WHICH KEEPS COLD LOW LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED. HOWEVER...THE 850MB WARM FRONT SNEAKS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL UP ALLOWING FOR AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE COLD DOME NR THE SFC. IF THE ETA WOULD HOLD TRUE...THIS WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREA...AND HAVE OPTED TO PUT THAT IN THE FCST. THINK THAT COLD DOME TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR ZR. ALL MODELS SHOW THE WEST STAYING ALL SNOW...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST GFS SOLN. SO...HAVE GONE WITH S+ OVER THE WEST WITH THE COMBO OF STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE DYNAMICS...UPSLOPE NE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. SEE NO REASON WHY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE ETA QPF FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH A 15:1 RATIO YIELDING 7-10 INCHES SUN OVER THE WEST. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY SLOT MOVING N INTO THE CWFA SUN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT LESS SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/RAIN WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS. WILL GENERALLY GO A 4-8 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND 3-6 IRON/DICKINSON. WILL KEEP ALL WATCHES AS IS FOR NOW(EXCEPT WHERE THE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS ISSUANCE). IF THINGS CONTINUE AS IS...IRON/DICKINSON WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS AFTN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE SUN NIGHT/MON...THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TURN N-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -10 TO -12C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY MON AFTN. PLENTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF BLOWING...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEING SEEN A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL. REST OF FCST FOR MON NIGHT-FRI REMAINS UNCHANGED. MRD && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MIZ002-004-009-084. SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ001-003-005-010. WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MIZ001-003-005-006-011. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003 .DISCUSSION AM BEGINNING TO SEE THE WHITES OF THE STORM'S EYES NOW AS 06Z/NEW 12Z RUNS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON TRACK/STRENGTH/QPF PLACEMENT. STILL WILL BE MESOSCALE VARIABLES BUT LARGE SCALE PICTURE BECOMING MORE CLEAR. 12Z ETA SHIFTING 100M WEST ON SFC LOW...06Z GFS SHIFTING EAST...AND EVERYTHING NOW POINTING AT SIG SNOW EVENT FROM NEW ULM THRU METRO TO RICE LAKE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF 12Z GFS COMES IN LINE WITH THIS...AND IF IT DOES...MAY GO WITH WARNING FOR METRO COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BASED FCST SOLEY ON RUC FORCING PARAMETERS. FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND OF OF 4-10" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT IN VRY NARROW LINE FROM CANBY TO WILLMAR HAS LAID DOWN SOME SERIOUS POWDER AS DESCRIBED FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS. THIS HAS DIMINISHED AND PUSHED OFF...AND NOW FOCUS TURNS TO ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTO-FORCED SNOW IN H7-H6 LAYER ACRS NWRN 1/2 OF CWA. SEEING ECHOES ON REG 88D'S GROWING IN ERN SD/ND AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. FORCING NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...SO 1-3" AT MOST IN NRN/WRN CWA. AS THIS BATCH OF FRONTO FORCING WEAKENS...VRY STRONG Q/G FORCING IN FORM OF H5/H3 CONV-Q OVR TOP STRONG H7 THERMAL RIBBON SHOULD BEGIN THE BIG SHOW. WV PICS AND 12Z RAOBS IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOWING THIS STORM EVERY BIT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 140DM IN SRN NEV...AND BROAD/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AS STRONG S/W ENERGY COMES 'ROUND THE BASE. WHILE SFC LOW...OR EVEN SFC PRES FALLS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...THIS SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY TODAY. LOOKING FOR MOD SNOWS THIS EVENING TURNING HEAVIER IN COMMA HEAD OVR CNTL CWA SUNDY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAKE A MESS. UPDATES OUT TO ADD TIMING TO 1ST PD...PERHAPS ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO UPGRADE SOME CNTL MN COUNTIES TO WARNING STATUS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CAMBRIDGE. WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CAMBRIDGE. WI...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. $$ BINAU mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 505 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003 .SHORT TERM... UPR-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE TROF AXIS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS CO AS H250 JET ENERGY SHIFTS OVER THE SPLNS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SAT OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY EVE AND THEN ACCELERATE OUT INTO KS/OK AT NIGHT. SAME AS YSTDY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES AND THE RUC KEEPS IT IN PLACE UNTIL LATE AFTN. YSTDY THERE WAS ABOUT A 20 DEGREE RANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TODAY...EXCEPT WITH A SMALLER RANGE. RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 81 DEGREES IN LBB SHOULD BE SAFE AS HIGHS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED CLOUDINESS. WELL-ADVERTISED STG CDFNT ARRIVAL IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE 6Z AVN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ETA/PREVIOUS RUNS. CAA WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AS TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BEHIND FRONT. 300MB RH/CPD FIELDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AHD OF TROF AXIS DURING SAT MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BUT EXITING THE AREA BY EVE. MODELS DEPICT A SHORT PERIOD (10-14Z) OF HIGH RH AND PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUN MORN. THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FROM WIND ON SAT AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE HIGH BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ONCE AGAIN A PROBLEM AS...FOR EXAMPLE...AVN SHOWING 40+ KTS AT 850MB 6PM SAT WITH ETA IN THE MID 30S. DONT THINK HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH MIXING TOO MUCH AND SW COUNTIES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY AND RED FLAG CRITERIA SAT AFTN. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS BUT STILL WELL UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS BY SUN MORN. MC. .LONG TERM... APOLOGIES FOR LONG DELAY IN AFD ISSUANCE...BUT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO MAKE SENSE OF COMPLEX WX CHANGES AND FUSE ALL OF THE VARIOUS WX HIGHLIGHTS WE HAVE GOING ON. PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COMBINATION OF STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF EXITING SURFACE CYCLONE...WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME LOCATIONS AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING VERY MUCH ABOVE MORNING VALUES. DESPITE FORECAST VALUES ALREADY UNDER-CUTTING MODEL GUIDANCE...NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO FURTHER LOWER SUNDAY/S HIGHS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS AROUND. AGAIN...NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER DROPPING MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL. AREAS THAT MAY MISS HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL NOT ESCAPE THE HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THUS...REASONING FOR FREEZE WARNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND SOUTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...NOT AS STRONG OR AS COLD AS IMMEDIATE FRONT...IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. JH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 73 23 34 13 / 0 10 0 0 TULIA 69 26 35 15 / 0 10 0 0 PLAINVIEW 73 27 37 16 / 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 76 30 38 17 / 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 77 30 38 17 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 77 33 40 18 / 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 64 32 38 19 / 0 10 10 0 SPUR 78 34 41 19 / 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 80 40 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TXZ033>035-039>041. RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ033>035-039>041. FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR TXZ021>031-033>036. FREEZE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ032-037>044. && $$ 33/02 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 102 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM FL NEWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SE GA. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUN. BY 12Z MON, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO ONTARIO, THE ENERGY OVER THE SERN U.S. BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND WEAKENED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK SE LOW LEVEL WINDS, WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ZERO DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND FAIR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH THIS FRONT. THE ETA IS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY THE FASTEST MODEL THIS TIME, WITH THE GFS AND NGM BOTH ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. SINCE THE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION, WILL FAVOR THE GFS TIMING. HOWEVER, BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH A FRONT THAT SHOULD BE GETTING SHALLOWER AND WEAKER AS IT MOVES E. MAV POPS THEREFORE LOOK TOO HIGH FOR THIS SYSTEM. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MOS WHICH WILL RESULT IN POPS RANGING FROM 50 NW TO 20 SE. WILL MAINTAIN A MON EVENING POP ONLY FOR OUR SE ZONES. TUE LOOKS DRY AND COOLER. .MARINE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE CAUTION RANGE LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT. .FIRE WX...RH HAS IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SUFFICIENT DURATIONS FOR A WARNING. NO CONCERNS FOR SUN OR MON. .EXTENDED...WED THROUGH SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIODS. THIS FAST FLOW PREVENTS THE COLD FRONT FROM GETTING TOO FAR DOWN THE FL PENINSULA. IN FACT, BY WED MORNING, THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER TX AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS, REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THU. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THU. HOWEVER, LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR, IT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL FL. INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS SHOWS AN ELY WAVE APPROACHING FL ON SAT. CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE AS FOLLOWS. INSERTED A LOW POP FOR WED. MAINTAINED SCT POPS FOR THU, BUT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. FRI POPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT 10 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW, BUT THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON ELY WAVE. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 48 78 55 71 / 00 05 10 40 PFN 58 77 59 68 / 00 05 20 40 DHN 55 75 57 62 / 00 05 30 50 ABY 49 77 57 65 / 00 05 20 40 VLD 50 79 56 72 / 00 05 10 30 CTY 51 80 55 75 / 00 05 05 20 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ 18-WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NW BY GALESBURG...TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FROM I-70 SOUTH. WARM FRONT HAS JUST NUDGED NW OF GALESBURG SO MUCH OF ILX CWFA IS NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS SW TO A 1007 MB LOW JUST WEST OF JOPLIN MO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72...WHILE STILL FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS FROM MATTOON/CHARLESTON SE. 11 AM TEMPS RANGE FROM 46 FAR NW AT GALESBURG TO 67 FAR SE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. RUC AND MESOETA KEEP IT DRY TODAY AND DEVELOP LIGHT QPF FROM THE IL RIVER WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES NE FROM NORTH TX TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES BY 12Z/SUN. MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ONGOING WX SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AND AS OF 08Z IS BETWEEN ILX AND PIA. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF ETA/GFS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY...SO COULD SEE A WIDE VARITATION IN TEMPERATURES OVER CWA AGAIN WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S IN THE SE. MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE GULF FINALLY OPENS UP AND SPREADS TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF CWA...WILL EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CU DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN SYSTEM STILL TO OUR WEST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ...WILL DROP MENTION OF ANY PCPN FOR TODAY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN HAS PUT EASTERN HALF OF CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TRWS TO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 50+ KTS...LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO REGION. THINGS KICK INTO HIGH GEAR ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. ADJUSTED TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW MORNING HIGH TEMPS...THEN FALLING FROM THERE. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL SEE PCPN CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE WELL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FLURRIES AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END BY MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF REGION. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY AS WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTH AS TEMPS TO ONLY REACH HIGHS NEAR 40 IN THIS AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND EXITS REGION RATHER RAPIDLY. SHOULD SEE DRY AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. && $$ BYRD il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1025 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2003 .UPDATE... AT 17Z RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOWED SNOWFALL BEING CONFINED TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. RUC/ETA 3 HOUR SNOWFALL PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE A BIT SLOWER REACHING OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. ACCORDINGLY...I PUSHED BACK THE TIMING TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWERED THE POPS A BIT. OTHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH NONE OF THE MODELS PICKING UP ON THE 2500-3500 CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST FSL DEVELOPMENTAL RUC PICKING UP ON IT A BIT LATELY BUT ALSO ADVERTISES A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SUN AND RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE ADJUSTED FOR. GIVEN THE INABILITY TO PICK UP ON THE STRATUS DECK HEADING THIS WAY I UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WITH THE RUC WHICH IS HANDLING THESE PARAMETERS BEST. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 422 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2003 ...CORRECTED DATE OF FREEZE WARNING IN FIRST SENTENCE... WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS...SIMILAR TO THE RUC40. THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THE WEST IS VERY COMPLEX...WITH ONE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO...AND A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT RACING EAST ACROSS THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BECAUSE OF THE MASS OF THE COLDEST AIR...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z...AND INTO THE DFW AND WACO AREAS ABOUT 12Z (ACTUALLY A BIT AFTER 12Z AT WACO AND TEMPLE)...AND INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES BY 15Z. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THERE WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP TUESDAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AGAIN IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOLER PERIOD...THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FCSTID = 26 DFW 50 57 27 55 / 10 0 0 0 ACT 63 63 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 PRX 54 58 28 50 / 20 20 0 0 DTO 46 49 26 50 / 10 0 0 0 TKI 50 52 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 DAL 54 60 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 TRL 55 57 29 54 / 20 20 0 0 CRS 58 62 28 55 / 20 20 0 0 TPL 62 63 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 .FWD... TX...FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TXZ091>095... TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162... TXZ174>175. WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095... TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162... TXZ174>175. $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2003 WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS...SIMILAR TO THE RUC40. THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THE WEST IS VERY COMPLEX...WITH ONE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO...AND A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT RACING EAST ACROSS THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BECAUSE OF THE MASS OF THE COLDEST AIR...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z...AND INTO THE DFW AND WACO AREAS ABOUT 12Z (ACTUALLY A BIT AFTER 12Z AT WACO AND TEMPLE)...AND INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES BY 15Z. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THERE WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP TUESDAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AGAIN IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOLER PERIOD...THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. FCSTID = 26 DFW 50 57 27 55 / 10 0 0 0 ACT 63 63 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 PRX 54 58 28 50 / 20 20 0 0 DTO 46 49 26 50 / 10 0 0 0 TKI 50 52 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 DAL 54 60 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 TRL 55 57 29 54 / 20 20 0 0 CRS 58 62 28 55 / 20 20 0 0 TPL 62 63 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 .FWD... TX...FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TXZ091>095... TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162... TXZ174>175. WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095... TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162... TXZ174>175. $$ tx