Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 14, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent The 15 major potato States held 129 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1998, down 13 percent from a year earlier but 11 percent above 1996. Storage accounted for 32 percent of 1997 fall production in the storage States, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 278 million cwt was down 6 percent from last year, including an 8 percent drop in processing. Pot 1-2 (4-98) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 442,752 295,100 262,120 227,080 189,410 147,885 102,810 1997 : 407,164 274,250 240,850 205,850 170,325 129,340 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,245 1,655 2,285 2,725 3,335 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,510 26,990 29,890 40,275 1997 : 11,335 13,550 16,615 19,335 22,775 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,180 93,555 110,080 130,170 148,950 167,350 224,710 1997 : 68,040 83,145 98,640 117,930 137,450 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1996 : Crop of 1997 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1997 : Prod : : 1998 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,600 1,700 37 4,200 1,600 38 CO : 29,175 12,900 44 25,377 11,000 43 ID : 142,800 56,000 39 135,430 51,000 38 ME : 21,175 8,400 40 19,170 7,400 39 MI : 13,800 1,900 14 14,250 2,600 18 MN : 24,600 8,500 35 20,440 6,800 33 MT : 3,213 1,900 59 3,328 2,000 60 NE 2/ : 4,402 1,025 7,527 1,510 NY : 7,980 350 4 8,408 250 3 ND : 28,820 10,000 35 21,525 7,700 36 OH 2/ : 1,275 1,175 OR : 30,124 13,300 44 27,161 9,800 36 PA : 4,208 410 10 3,190 380 12 WA : 94,990 23,000 24 88,060 22,500 26 WI : 31,590 8,500 27 27,923 4,800 17 : 15 States : 442,752 147,885 33 407,164 129,340 32 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1998 potatoes. 1997 crop seed usage totaled 28.9 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1992-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 382,333 91.1 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,582 1996 : 453,436 407,326 89.8 46,110 10.2 28,941 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Apr 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : CA 1994 : 5,600 2,100 286 60 500 5,040 1995 : 5,330 1,700 242 10 460 4,860 1996 : 4,600 1,700 200 23 472 4,105 1997 : 4,200 1,600 : CO 1994 : 25,795 8,500 1,925 1,210 2,040 22,545 1995 : 23,808 9,100 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 1996 : 29,175 12,900 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 1997 : 25,377 11,000 : ID 1994 : 138,801 55,000 8,400 1,535 9,659 127,607 1995 : 132,657 49,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 1996 : 142,800 56,000 8,400 1,500 10,100 131,200 1997 : 135,430 51,000 : ME 1994 : 18,375 5,200 1,716 525 2,850 15,000 1995 : 17,160 5,700 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 1996 : 21,175 8,400 1,628 395 1,800 18,980 1997 : 19,170 7,400 : MI 1994 : 11,310 2,500 963 174 1,350 9,786 1995 : 16,350 2,700 962 168 690 15,492 1996 : 13,800 1,900 784 300 1,300 12,200 1997 : 14,250 2,600 : MN 1994 : 17,755 6,000 1,693 458 1,668 15,629 1995 : 20,790 6,800 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 1996 : 24,600 8,500 1,383 445 4,158 19,997 1997 : 20,440 6,800 : MT 1994 : 3,200 1,950 216 142 192 2,866 1995 : 2,940 1,750 239 128 147 2,665 1996 : 3,213 1,900 239 137 221 2,855 1997 : 3,328 2,000 : NE 1/ 1994 : 3,996 705 300 217 311 3,468 1995 : 3,680 705 292 187 284 3,209 1996 : 4,402 1,025 449 169 439 3,794 1997 : 7,527 1,510 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Apr 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : NY 1994 : 7,805 450 648 131 417 7,257 1995 : 7,695 400 648 155 290 7,250 1996 : 7,980 350 660 140 370 7,470 1997 : 8,408 250 : ND 1994 : 28,200 7,500 2,125 335 4,365 23,500 1995 : 25,410 7,000 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 1996 : 28,820 10,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 1997 : 21,525 7,700 : OH 1/ 1994 : 1,348 110 22 11 1,315 1995 : 1,404 107 4 10 1,390 1996 : 1,275 105 5 35 1,235 1997 : 1,175 : OR 1994 : 27,514 10,100 1,242 222 2,055 25,237 1995 : 24,788 7,500 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 1996 : 30,124 13,300 1,357 305 2,560 27,259 1997 : 27,161 9,800 : PA 1994 : 3,780 420 342 17 362 3,401 1995 : 4,080 400 323 20 102 3,958 1996 : 4,208 410 361 83 325 3,800 1997 : 3,190 380 : WA 1994 : 88,920 23,500 3,528 300 7,000 81,620 1995 : 80,850 18,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 1996 : 94,990 23,000 3,552 300 6,800 87,890 1997 : 88,060 22,500 : WI 1994 : 25,740 4,900 1,640 257 1,802 23,681 1995 : 26,000 5,000 1,743 288 1,250 24,462 1996 : 31,590 8,500 1,560 305 1,360 29,925 1997 : 27,923 4,800 : 15 Sts : 1994 : 408,139 128,825 25,134 5,605 34,582 367,952 1995 : 392,942 116,255 26,093 5,524 27,633 359,785 1996 : 442,752 147,885 24,791 5,952 39,185 397,615 1997 : 407,164 129,340 : 23 Fall Sts : 1994 : 419,645 25,872 5,671 35,641 378,333 1995 : 403,009 26,813 5,559 28,504 368,946 1996 : 453,436 25,444 6,054 40,056 407,326 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1994-96 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : : : : : : and :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul Crop Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO 1994 : 5 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 9 8 4 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : ID 1994 : 4 15 19 5 7 5 5 7 12 9 6 6 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : ME 1994 : 3 6 11 8 11 12 10 16 14 6 3 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : MI 1994 : 4 9 15 10 11 8 10 9 11 9 3 1 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : MN 1994 : 4 24 26 8 4 5 5 6 8 6 4 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : NY 1994 : 3 24 15 12 15 17 7 3 4 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : ND 1994 : 2 15 10 9 11 13 8 10 9 9 3 1 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : OR 1994 : 2 11 14 25 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 2 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 2 2 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 2 : PA 1994 : 15 21 14 14 10 9 7 6 3 1 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : WA 1994 : 16 13 24 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 5 2 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : WI 1994 : 1 8 19 14 11 8 9 9 10 6 4 1 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent April 1, 1998, potato stocks totaled 129 million cwt, down 13 percent from a year earlier but 11 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was 278 million cwt, 6 percent below a year ago but up less than 1 percent from two years ago. Processing accounted for 137 million cwt through March, 8 percent less than last year and 2 percent short of two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss of 24.5 million cwt was down 14 percent from last year. Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 was 278 million cwt this season, down 6 percent from the same period a year earlier and less than 1 percent above two years ago. Disappearance during March was 41.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss was estimated at 24.5 million cwt, down 14 percent from last year and 9 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1997 crop potatoes totaled 137 million cwt so far this season, down 8 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago. March processing claimed 19.5 million cwt of potatoes, up 4 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 8.03 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1998, down 12 percent from a year ago but 24 percent above 1997. Stocks in Maine were down 12 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's stocks were down 7 percent, and New York's holdings were down 29 percent from last year. Central States' storage accounted for 23.4 million cwt of potatoes this month, down 22 percent from 1997 but 5 percent above 1996. Wisconsin's stocks dropped 44 percent, North Dakota's stocks fell 23 percent, and Minnesota's stocks slipped 20 percent from a year ago. Michigan's holdings were up 37 percent, and Nebraska's stocks increased 50 percent. Western States held 97.9 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1998, down 10 percent from last year but 12 percent above 1996. Idaho's stocks fell 9 percent from a year ago but were 3 percent above two years ago. Idaho's storage held more than half of the western stocks. Colorado's stocks were down 15 percent, Oregon's stocks were off 26 percent from last year, and California's stocks dropped 6 percent. Washington's stocks were off 2 percent from last year, but Montana's seed growers gained 5 percent. Each of the Western States, except California, had more potatoes in storage than two years ago. Reliability of April Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 129 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.0 percent or approximately 6.47 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.7 percent or 11.3 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-96) record of difference between the April 1 Stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.90 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April Stocks, United States, 1987-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 105,895 100.0 105,905 1988 : 86,745 93.7 92,585 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 93.5 115,970 1994 : 123,285 95.7 128,825 1995 : 112,925 97.1 116,255 1996 : 143,235 96.9 147,885 1997 : 129,340 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. 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