HDR1012000110080412961500POTATO STOCKS Released April 12, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Potato Stocks Down 12 Percent Potato stocks totaled 113 million cwt on April 1, 1996, down 12 percent from last year and 3 percent below two years ago. April stocks covered 29 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States compared with 31 percent a year ago. Disappearance for the season, at 279 million cwt of potatoes, was slightly less than last year but 8 percent above 1994. Shrink and loss of 27.9 million cwt was 2 percent below a year ago. Processors used a record high 139 million cwt of potatoes, up 3 percent for the season. March processing totaled 17.9 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year earlier. Pot 1-2 (4-96) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 391,816 252,080 218,970 184,755 152,255 112,925 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,685 2,200 2,540 3,025 : WA & OR - Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 15,330 18,415 21,485 24,910 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 87,225 103,335 120,835 138,725 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct : CA : 5,600 2,100 38 5,330 1,600 30 CO : 25,795 8,500 33 23,808 9,100 38 ID : 138,801 55,000 40 131,274 48,000 37 ME : 18,375 5,200 28 17,160 5,700 33 MI : 12,180 2,500 21 16,500 3,500 21 MN : 17,755 6,000 34 20,790 6,800 33 MT : 3,200 1,950 61 2,940 1,880 64 NE : 3,996 690 17 3,680 2/645 NY : 7,805 2/465 7,695 600 8 ND : 28,200 7,500 27 25,410 7,000 28 OH : 1,348 2/ 1,404 2/ OR : 27,514 10,100 37 23,760 6,200 26 PA : 3,780 420 11 4,080 400 10 WA : 88,920 23,500 26 80,850 17,000 21 WI : 25,740 4,900 19 27,135 4,500 17 : Total 15 State : 409,009 128,825 31 391,816 112,925 29 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1996 potatoes. 1995 crop seed usage totaled 29.3 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Down 12 Percent April 1, 1996 stocks totaled 113 million cwt, down 12 percent from last year and 3 percent below two years ago. Stocks made up 29 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, down two points from a year ago. Season- to-date disappearance totaled 279 million cwt, slightly less than last year but 8 percent above 1994. Processor usage of 139 million cwt was up 3 percent from last year. Shrinkage and loss to date was 27.9 million cwt, 2 percent below a year ago. Processing continued to move potatoes at a record pace for the season, accounting for 139 million cwt of potatoes, up 3 percent from the same period last year and 12 percent above two years ago. March processor usage was 17.9 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year ago but 3 percent above two years ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through March totaled 279 million cwt of potatoes, down slightly from last year but 8 percent above two years ago. Shrinkage and loss was 27.9 million cwt, 2 percent less than the 28.5 million cwt lost last year but 4 percent above losses two years ago. Eastern States stored 6.70 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1996, up 10 percent from last year and 1 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks were up 10 percent. New York gained 33 percent. Pennsylvania was down 5 percent. Central States held 22.4 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 1996. This is 4 percent above last year and 34 percent higher than two years ago. Michigan's stocks were up 40 percent and Minnesota's were up 13 percent with the addition of former summer area potatoes included this year. Wisconsin's stocks were off 8 percent while North Dakota's stocks were off 7 percent from last year. Western States potato stocks totaled 83.8 million cwt in six States, down 17 percent from last year and 10 percent below two years ago. Idaho's stocks were down 13 percent. Washington's stocks were off 28 percent and Oregon's stocks fell 39 percent. Montana's stocks were down 4 percent and California dropped 24 percent from a year ago. Colorado, with 7 percent more potatoes, was the only Western State with an increase over a year earlier. As we head for an apparent shortfall, some processing potatoes will be brought in from Arizona's and California's spring crop. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 113 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.8 percent or approximately 6.5 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent or 11.3 million cwt. The 10-year (1986-95) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.6 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 8 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 102,590 98.1 104,540 1986 : 91,670 96.4 95,090 1987 : 105,895 100.0 105,905 1988 : 86,745 93.7 92,585 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 93.5 115,970 1994 : 123,285 95.7 128,825 1995 : 112,925 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 14, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). 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