FXUS61 KGYX 261812
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003

FCST PROBLEMS FOR THE NEXT TWO PERIODS INCLUDE POPS FOR TNGT...AND 
WHETHER SVR WX WL BE PREVALENT SUN AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT.

CURRENTLY...BANDS OF CI CONT TO MOV ACRS THE FA AHEAD OF THE S/W IN 
THE FLO JUST N OF THE FA.  WUD EXPECT THIS TO CONT THRU THE BALANCE 
OF THE AFTN.  

AWIPS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BULK OF THE -RA ACTIVITY HAS STAYED N 
OF THE BORDER ATTM...AND WUD EXPECT THIS TO CONT THRUT THE AFTN AS 
WELL.  THE WLY FLO HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE AT BAY...AND NOW IT 
APPEARS AS THO ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDCST. 

IN THE SHORT TERM (TNGT AND SUN)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR 
S TO BRING THE WAA INDUCED -RA.  BASED ON THE UPSTREAM...BLV THAT 
MOST MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE BEST ACTIVITY.  THIS 
SHUD LEAVE THE SRNMOST ZNS (SRN NH AND SWRN ME) PCPN-FREE FOR THE 
MOST PART...AS THE BEST LIFT STAYS N OF THIS AREA.  ACRS THE MTNS... 
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...WL INCREASE POPS A BIT TO LIKELY.

THE WAA IS IMPRESSIVE ENUF THAT A MENTION OF THUNDER WL BE TOSSED IN 
AS WELL.  SUM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM IN THE FLO...AND THIS CUD SURVIVE 
INTO THE NRN ZNS LATER TNGT.

CLDS MAY ALSO END UP BEING PROBLEMATIC...AS THE SRWRNMOST ZNS MAY 
ENBD UP WITH LTL MORE THAN CI OR AS LATER TNGT.  BASED ON UPSREAM 
OBS...BELIEVE EVEN THESE ZNS SHUD SEE A PD OF CLDS LATER TNGT...AND 
WL INDICAT AS SUCH.  

LUKS LIKE THE LOWER AVN MOS NUMBERS WL BE CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL 
MINS...AS DWPTS ARE ONLY NOW STARTING TO RECOVER TO THE SW.  WL LEAN 
TWD THESE NUMBERS FOR MINS...AND BUMP THEM UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR SUN...THE ETA/GFS APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 
FROPA...AND THIS GENERAL TIMING IS ACCEPTED.  BLV THE ETA IS A BIT 
TOO FAST GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORT SHEARS OUT TO THE NE.  THIS 
TIMING IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GEM AS WELL.

THE QUESTION FOR SUN BECOMES:  HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SVR WX CAN WE 
EXPECT?  THE NRN ZNS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO 
DESTABILIZE SUFFICENTLY FOR A SIG THREAT.  FURTHER S...THE WAA CLDS 
SHUD LIFT DURG THE MRNG HRS...ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF HRS OF 
DESTABILZATION.  THE INSTAB MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR AS 
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHUD ALLOW FOR THE PTNL FOR ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE PRE-FNTL TROF/CDFNT.  FOR NOW...WL NOT ADD 
ENHANCED WORDING...BUT THE BEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS 
ACRS SRN NH AND SWRN ME.

ACRS NRN ZNS...CLDS SHUD KEEP MAXES CLOSER OT THE COOLER MAV 
NUMBERS...BUT FURTHER S...THE AMS CAN SUPPORT 90 DEGREES.  MRNG CLDS 
SHUD PREEVTN THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT U80S LUKS OK FOR SRN ZNS.

THE FROPA SHUD OCCUR SUCH THAT A MENTION OF POPS FOR SUN NGT MAY NOT 
BE WARRANTED YET.  FOR NOW...WL PROBABLY MENTION DRY CONDITIONS AS 
THE FNT PASSES.  THE AMS CHANGE IS QUITE SIG...AND MINS IN THIS AMS 
THIS MRNG WERE IN THE M40S TO M50S.  WL USE THE ETA/AVN MOS NUMBERS 
FOR MINS SUN NGT.  

FOR MON...THE FA WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLO WITH CAA 
FINISHING UP IN THE MRNG.  WL INDICATE P/SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL ZNS AS 
THE LAPSE RATES SHUD ALLOW FOR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT.  CUD BE SUM 
-SHRA/--SHRA IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTN...BUT AT THIS PT WL LEAVE IT 
OUT AND GET A BETTER LUK WITH LATER INFO.  80A TEMPS SUGGEST THAT 
MOS NUMBERS MAY BE A TAD HI...AND WL GENERALLY DROP MOS A DEGREE OR 
TWO.

AFT A COOL NIGHT MON NGT...THE AMS STARTS TO RECOVER IN THE WSWLY.  
THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN SHUD BE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE BEGINNING OF 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYS TRIES TO CLOSE OFF IN THE MID 
LEVELS W OF THE FA.  FOR THE MOST PART...USED ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS 
FOR TEMPS...AND DIDN'T STRAY MUCH FM HPC GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE NEXT 
WEEK.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS GET INTO THE SCA RANGE 
IN THE WAA LATER TNGT...AND IN THE IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE 
FNT SUN.  

PRELIM ISC GRIDS ARE AVBL.  PRELIM WRKCWF AVBL SOON.  PRELIM WRKZFP 
AVBL AFT 245 PM.  

.GYX...SCA.

$$

HAYES