000
FXUS04 KWBC 111842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
242 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 12/0000 UTC THRU MAR 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SWRN/SCNTRL TX ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/SERN OK REGION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAVY PCPN
EVENT FROM SWRN TO SCNTRL TX...ENEWD TOWARD SERN OK/ARKLATEX
REGION DAY 1.   A SERIES OF SHRTWVS IN THE WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM
FLOW FROM THE SW INTO THE SRN PLAINS WL CONT TO ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE LIFT OVR THE SRN END OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVR THE CNTRL
U.S. THIS PERIOD AS THEY PUSH NEWD.   THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN A
FEW PLACES IN THIS AXIS OF HEAVY PCPN DAY 1.  ON THE NRN EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD...THE GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE NAM/EC OR
SREF MEAN.  CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH WITH PCPN IN THE 1800-0000 UTC PERIOD...HAVING ITS
FCST PCPN INTO SRN OK WHERE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN HIGH.  THE
FURTHER SUPPRESSED GFS...AT THE MOMENT..APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
FIT.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THE DAY 1 QPF DID
TREND CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE SREF MEAN AND 0000 UTC
ECMWF...DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF 1-2"+ PCPN FROM SCNTRL TX NEWD
INTO NERN TX/SERN OK AND SRN TO CNTRL AR.  A QUICK LOOK AT THE
1200 UTC ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHT SWD TREND TO THE NRN END OF THE QPF
AXIS...BUT IT REMAINS CLOSE TO ITS 0000 UTC SOLN.  DURG THE
CURRENT FCST PERIOD...18000-0000 UTC..THE LATEST ECMWF IS DRIER
THAN ITS 0000 UTC RUN OVR SWRN AND SCNTRL OK.   ON THE SRN END OF
THE PCPN AREA...THE 0000 AND 12000 UTC ECMWF RUNS ARE SHOWING
HEAVY PCPN EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVR SCNTRL TX IN A
REGION STRONG SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF
THIS SELY FLOW OVR THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR...THE DAY 1 QPF WENT
TOWARD THE HEAVIER QPF OF THE EC AND CMC.   WITH FFG VALUES HIGH
ACRS THESE AREAS...DO NOT...AT THE MOMENT...BELIEVE THERE WL BE
ANY RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN THIS QPF AXIS.


SRN CA INTO THE SW...

A RELATIVELY SMALL CLOSED LOW IN THE WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM FLOW
IS FCST TO PUSH EWD INTO THE NRN BAJA/SRN CA THU AND INTO SWRN AZ
BY THU AFTERNOON.  PW VALUES/MOISTURE FLUX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ASSOC WITH THIS CLOSED LOW.  THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM SRN CA INTO THE
SW.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 484681 481673 479670 476669 467664 464667 461668 458671
      457675 457681 458686 458693 458698 456702 453705 447709
      444712 441715 444723 448729 452729 455728 457726 462719
      469713 471707 475703 477698 479696 483688 484681
 0.01 473854 471846 466839 463839 459843 455844 447845 441851
      440857 442863 446864 450863 459860 463863 466875 470882
      473882 474878 474867 473856 473854
 0.01 446748 444745 441744 438745 432748 430749 427753 426759
      426765 427768 429772 434773 437772 439768 441763 442759
      445753 446748
 0.01 385830 386824 384819 381815 381809 379803 377800 371802
      362806 354811 350819 347827 343840 340855 330889 327895
      322900 310908 305913 299918 288930 270949 261960 248971
      245976 243983 242991 243999 246007 252012 257015 263020
      267026 271032 277044 280050 284056 289063 294071 297075
      304078 314073 320071 331071 339072 342072 345068 352054
      349037 346024 347013 348010 354007 359007 364005 367000
      370993 373984 374978 374964 372950 371938 372928 373912
      376894 379878 381866 383856 385842 385830
 0.01 399072 400066 400059 397057 394057 390058 386056 384053
      378051 371049 362051 358052 356053 357056 363058 369058
      372057 373061 364061 359063 356066 350072 346080 344089
      340084 337079 334078 330078 324082 317085 313088 311094
      312100 313102 320107 334116 347126 353126 356128 361131
      365132 371132 375130 378127 382119 384116 383113 377114
      363118 358117 355116 352112 351110 352106 355100 360093
      363092 368092 375097 381094 386087 398074 399072
 0.01 342185 346178 344171 342167 339166 333164 328163 322163
      320164 319167 321173 324176 326179 331183 334185 339186
      342185
 0.25 363886 362873 359868 354870 349879 343889 323920 314935
      309942 303953 299959 297963 294966 291968 285968 280968
      275970 269974 262980 257986 255991 254997 256999 260002
      266006 273011 281016 288021 295024 301025 306024 317019
      328009 341992 346985 351978 354967 357956 362935 363922
      364908 363886
 0.50 359909 358898 358893 355888 352889 349891 343900 335911
      331917 326925 320938 312954 309961 307968 304975 302978
      297981 291980 285976 280976 275977 268983 265988 264992
      266995 278004 283007 289012 295015 305014 311012 317009
      324005 330998 339986 347972 351964 353956 357938 359924
      359909
 1.00 354932 353929 354925 353917 349912 344912 342914 335925
      330933 326944 323952 317960 309981 304988 300990 293991
      287991 285994 286997 288003 294005 299004 305002 316999
      324994 332986 341969 346959 350947 352940 354932
 1.50 345934 345930 344929 337932 332942 330948 328952 322962
      318973 316978 313984 311988 312992 315993 321990 326986
      332978 338967 342956 344945 345934
 2.00 338956 339953 337949 336948 334950 333951 331954 331955
      329958 328958 325962 322974 322983 332973 333969 334967
      335965 336963 337960 337959 338956

$$