####018005966#### FXUS61 KCLE 160820 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 320 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO OHIO TONIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING...AND LINGERING...AND LINGERING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST TODAY BUT UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. SNOW IS FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT/INSTABILITY... POCKETS OF AVBL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...AND SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING INCREASES. BUFKIT SHOWS ENOUGH DRYING AND LOWERING INVERSION AND EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END OR SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS MUCH SNOW AS YESTERDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT IS PULLING OUT BUT COULD STILL BE SMALL LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...ALTHOUGH WILL MONITOR THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COMING OFF CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WHERE THERE IS SOME OPEN WATER. MAX TEMP GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND LOOKS REASONABLE... MAY TWEAK IT A DEGREE OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE LATER. WILL BE COLDEST WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND INLAND FROM THE LAKE. GFS/MAV MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS THE COLDEST OF THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND FORECAST WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. SOUTH FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE A DECENT DAY...NOT AS SUNNY AS IT COULD BE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST WITH THE WARM UP IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE. MOST MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY CROSSING LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO NAM/WRF LOOKS LOST WITH SURFACE LOW SO FAR SOUTH. THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS TEND TO TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR WOULD GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER. PCPN WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT QUICKLY TUE NIGHT THOUGH AND WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MY FIRST INSTINCT WAS THAT IT MIGHT BE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION AND THERE MAY WELL BE SOME LOCALIZED FZRA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING UNIFORMLY. PCPN WOULD LIKELY START AS SNOW TUE NIGHT AND MAY WELL JUST END WED MORNING AS DRY SLOT AND WARM SECTOR PUSH NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE (RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR FEBRUARY) BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING A CHANCE OF TSTORMS. WRAP AROUND PCPN/TROUGH ALOFT TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL SLIDE BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SOME ARCTIC AIR IS TAPPED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST GFS COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...WHICH MOVES LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW. LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS...BUT BOTH HAVE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH W-NW FLOW OFF LAKE. WITH 850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -17C AND OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE FOR SATURDAY FORECAST. GFS MOVES LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WHILE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAVE AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF NEXT RIDGE A LITTLE IN DOUBT. BY 00Z MONDAY ENSEMBLE HAS THE RIDGE ON THE OH/PA BORDER...THE LATEST GFS HAS THE RIDGE NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN BETWEEN. FOR MY FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR KCLE...KCAK...KERI AND KYNG. THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SLOW BUILD INTO THE REGION. .OUTLOOK...LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN ALTHOUGH PCPN COULD START AS SNOW OR PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING RAIN. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NON VFR WEATHER. && .MARINE... QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. ON THE LAKE AND THEN THAT WILL CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER/CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT THE WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE GALE. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN ANOTHER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...DJB ####018006742#### FXUS62 KRAH 160820 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 315 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WAS SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. REPORTS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WET BULB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH... WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WAS EVIDENT WHEN ROANOKE RAPIDS REPORTED SNOW AT 0724Z. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ... PWAT VALUES .25 TO .30... THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND SHOULD MELT SINCE 200 AM GROUND/SOIL TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 40S. SINCE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING (WET BULB TEMPS) HAVE CHANGED THE ALL SNOW FORECAST TO RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW. WEATHER TAP BACKS THIS THINKING UP FOR THE MOST PART AS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING... THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD END BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH... DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 MPH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN BRINGING A COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER NC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE N-NW WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO A HARD FREEZE. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S EXCEPT SOME LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT... AND UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY... WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE IN THE 47-51 RANGE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER OUR REGION. A MAIN STORM TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING H85 TO SURFACE WARM FRONT... THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY... SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WHICH HAS BEEN SPEEDING UP IN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS). THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z THURSDAY... CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE... WE WILL RAISE THE POP TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY... AND CONTINUE THE LIKELY POP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE (THE NAM SUGGESTS LESSER AMOUNTS). THIS COULD BE THE FIRST GOOD SOAKING IN SEVERAL WEEKS. THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK... AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER... AND THE LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW INCREASES WITH THE WARM FRONTAL APPROACH. LOWS ABOVE MOS WILL BE FORECAST (MID TO UPPER 30S)... WITH RISING TEMPS POSSIBLE LATE. NO POP TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE SHORT OF GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE WARM FRONT MAY LINGER LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT WITH HYBRID DAMMING POTENTIAL INTO WED EVENING. HIGHS 48 NW RANGING INTO THE LOWER 60S SE. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H85 FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES WESTERLY... AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S... EXCEPT SOME 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY... FOR THURSDAY... IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH VERY EARLY IN THE DAY... AND EVEN IF IT LINGERS BACK TO THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS... THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST (ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH). THEREFORE... NO POP THURSDAY AFTER 12Z... WITH CLEARING AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S NW TO SE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY EVENING... WITH DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS 25-30. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS 50-55. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA WILL MAY BECOME A NUISANCE FOR CENTRAL NC. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE LATE SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS NIL AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT AND LOOKS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY... LOWS 25-32. HIGHS 50-55. DRY COLD AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY. LOWS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 20S... WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 210 AM... PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES MVFR OR BETTER WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH NEAR SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES MID 30S TO MID 40S AT 2 AM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 6 AM AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER A NORTHWEST BREEZE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHJ NEAR TERM...RHJ SHORT TERM..PWB ####018011527#### FXUS62 KTAE 160820 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 315 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UNAMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW OUT WEST IS DOMINATED BY MOTION AROUND A DOMINANT CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FAST MOVING FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT IN NATURE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WITH ONE STREAM MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND ANOTHER MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT IS A MESSY LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW THEN DIVE BACK INTO LONGWAVE RIDING THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT BROUGHT THE THE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY IS NOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN FROM AL/MS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)... QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. EASTERN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OUR AREA FINDING ITSELF UNDER A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FEATURE. WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE MAIN FLOW OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S THROUGH THE DAY. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR ZONES THROUGH THE DAY PROVIDING AN INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE RAIN FREE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST APPROACHES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY TUES MORNING WITH A RIDGE EXTENSION SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH A DRY AND REASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS RIDGE POSITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPS TO START OUT THE DAY. THE RIDGE POSITION IS NOT IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. FOR THESE REASONS WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE...HOWEVER A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE LOWER 30S BRIEFLY TOWARD SUNRISE...AND PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE 60S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BEGIN TO RAPIDLY CHANGE TOWARD BRINGING US OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY. TWO STRONG PIECES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY...ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS..AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVOLVE TO FORM AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BE APPROACHING SE AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIGHTENING GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FALLING PRESSURES TO OUR WEST WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH. LOW TEMPS TUES NIGHT WILL HAVE TROUBLE FALLING OUT OF THE 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. WEAK OVERRUNNING SITUATION COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES (GENERALLY KDHN TO KABY) TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AL. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWS TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND. ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD-COVER. SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPANDING EASTWARD WED NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. SEE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (MIAHWOTAE) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX...AND LIKELY ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL THE ENTIRE PERIOD ...WILL BE IN THE WED NIGHT TO THU MORNING TIME FRAME...AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN 850MB JET AROUND 50 KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER... SFC BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE PARTIALLY MODIFIED BY THE COOLER AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PREVALENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE GFS IS INDICATING POSITIVE SFC BASED CAPES WELL INLAND TO THE W OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...SO IF THE FORCING DOES BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY BE ABLE TO BE OVERCOME. IN ANY EVENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT AS A PATTERN CHANGER... AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT HELP CARVE AND MAINTAIN THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HEAD OUR WAY... WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST 2 MORNINGS OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. WHETHER WE APPROACH HARD FREEZE LEVELS OR NOT REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED...BUT BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF...THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD BE SAT AND MON. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT BELOW CLIMO AS WELL... BUT THE WARMING FEB INSOLATION SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... CAUTIONARY LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST UNDER CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS. A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. && .AVIATION... JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING HAS COMPLICATED THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVERNIGHT...AS CLEARING SKIES OUT AHEAD OF THE COOL AND DRY SURGE HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY TO THE S AND E. TLH AND VLD HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR LEVELS AS OF 04Z...WITH JUST MVFR VIS AT ABY AND PFN THUS FAR. WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS QUICKLY APPROACHING SE AL AND S CENTRAL GA...BELIEVE DHN...PFN... AND ABY WILL ENTER THE DRY AIR FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS...BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT TLH AND VLD...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH JUST SOME CI MOVING IN FROM THE W...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND HAVE NOW BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND A LARGE PORTION OF SW GEORGIA. LINGERING DRY AIR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE A PERIOD OF CRITICAL LEVEL RH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. AN HOUR OR TWO OF NEAR CRITICAL RH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT EXTENDED DURATIONS OF THESE VALUES WILL NOT BE MET. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH... ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 66 33 67 45 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 PANAMA CITY 63 40 64 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 40 DOTHAN 63 34 64 48 70 / 0 0 0 20 60 ALBANY 64 32 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 20 50 VALDOSTA 65 33 66 44 72 / 0 0 0 10 20 CROSS CITY 67 34 68 44 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY... HOUSTON. GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DECATUR... DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL... QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...WORTH. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY... CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN... GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON... LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA... WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR... WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...GOULD ####018004680#### FXHW60 PHFO 160822 AAA AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 PM HST SUN FEB 15 2009 .UPDATE...THE MARINE ZONES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED WIND AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE RETURNS SHOWN ON RADAR THIS EVENING. THE MARINE AND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTIONS OF THIS AFD HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED. && .SYNOPSIS... SUNNY WEATHER PREVAILED AROUND THE ISLANDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR KAUAI AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AGAIN ON PRESIDENTS DAY EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT FAVOR THE MOUNTAIN OR WINDWARD AREAS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE A SMALL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE PASSES. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SFC N OF THE ISLANDS REINFORCED WITH A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THU. POES AND SSM/I DATA REVEAL DRY AIR AND LOW PWAT VALUES IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6500 FT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO FOCUS MEASURABLE POPS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A MEAN TROF WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BLOCKING RIDGE. GFS ENSEMBLES...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OCCLUDING LOW PRES OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC GOING INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING AND SHALLOW FRONTAL REMNANTS PASSING THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN BEGINNING WED WITH OTHERS FOLLOWING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CIRRUS COVER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EAST BACK OVER THE STATE AGAIN MID WEEK AS WELL. FRI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL ERODE LEADING TO LIGHTER TRADES WHICH WILL LIKELY BACK AND GAIN A MORE NRLY COMPONENT AS WELL. THIS MAY ALLOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL REMNANTS TO REACH SOME INTERIOR/LEEWARD AREAS. REGARDLESS OF ANY HEIGHT FALLS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE STABLE SIDE WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AGAIN N OF THE STATE...BUT FURTHER POLEWARD NORTH OF 40N. ECMWF/GFS STILL SUGGEST THIS WILL ALLOW THE ERN NPAC LOW PRES TO FRAGMENT AND RETROGRADE WWD AS THE PARENT LOW FILLS AND KICKS OUT NEWD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE FINER SCALE DETAILS WHICH WE WILL BEGIN IRONING OUT ON THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT. && .MARINE... THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE MOKAPU BUOY JUST EAST OF OAHU REMAINS AT THE BORDERLINE THRESHOLD...NEAR 9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. SURF IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY THRESHOLD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED ALONG N FACING SHORES BEGINNING MON WITH SURF REACHING HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AND MOVING SWD OVER WATERS WELL NE OF HAWAII DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL MODERATE NE SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MID WEEK. PREVAILING TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR 25 KT IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY MARINE ZONES. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE NW SWELL LATE MONDAY...COMBINED WITH THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE COMBINED SEAS AROUND KAUAI TO REMAIN 10 FT OR GREATER. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THOSE MARINE ZONES ALSO. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM HST MONDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS- KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL- ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. && $$ UPDATE...HOUSTON/DEJESUS PUBLIC...DEJESUS MARINE...DEJESUS/HOUSTON ####018004719#### FXUS61 KBTV 160823 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 323 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS ENERGY PUSHES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 850 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. NAM...LOCAL WRF...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAD SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 850 MB...BUT WE'VE SEEN IT BEFORE THIS WINTER WITH NO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER TONIGHT HAS BUCKED THE TREND. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ALL NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING 12-14Z WHEN MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS...AND HAVE LOADED UP THE WARMER LAV HOURLIES AND USED THOSE AS A BASIS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LEFT POPS ALONE...WITH SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER THEN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH BUILDS ATOP THE FA. CLR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE MID-WINTER TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TOMORROW MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER (A DEGREE OR TWO) BASED OFF MEAN 850 HPA TEMP PROFILES...BUT ALL AND ALL A FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL CHANGE. COLDEST READINGS AGAIN APPEAR TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES HERE. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER LVL RH/CLOUDS POSSBL BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ON SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS NOW A BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING IN LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF BRINGING IN SNOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GFS MODEL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING THAT THE ZERO DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SLEET ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY...WITH RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY... AS FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GRIDDED MOS MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS MEAN MAX TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS. GRIDDED MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED...CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SO HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS MEAN MIN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL LINGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. IR SAT CONFIRMS THIS TREND AS EARLIER WIDESPREAD MVFR IN VT IS LIFTING. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW AND LOW CIGS OVER REGION. POSSIBLE MVFR 00Z THU-12Z FRI AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY MOVES IN...THEN BACK TO IFR AFT 12Z FRI. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...AMF/HANSON