AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 840 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... OVERNIGHT...LATEST SURFACE METARS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA UNTIL WINDS ACQUIRE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT. LATEST RUC AND WRF_NMM8 SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH SHOULD START FILTERING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATED WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 19 KNOTS AND 2 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20 MILES AND 8 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY 010. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... NEARSHORE SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FEET OR LESS WHILE THE OFFSHORE SEAS SHOULD LEVEL OUT IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BUOY TRENDS BEFORE UPDATING TO LOWER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20 TO 60 MILE MARINE ZONE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS AND REMOVE HEADLINES FROM THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE. && .AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND GENERAL AVIATION ROUTES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. && .FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE DRY BUT COOL THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 40% ESP OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE 4 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL RH. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM UNTIL 03Z/10PM EST. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1021 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .UPDATE... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. DID A LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING OF ENDING OF PRECIP, BUT ALSO MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH WINDS ALONG LAKESHORE AND AT THE BUOY STILL NEAR GALE FORCE AT 02Z, EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE ZONES TO 08Z AND ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRI EVE AS WAVES WILL TAKE AWHILE TO COME DOWN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION/UPDATE... LOW OVER SE ONTARIO PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA. PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW TO THE SE WAS MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE AT FWA IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WK CAA, MELTING OF FALLING SNOW, AND DIURNAL COOLING COMBINING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MI AND NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. FWA APPARENTLY STILL SOUTH OF THE RN/SN LINE ATTM BUT IT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING SO MENTIONED SNOW IN THE TAF. WK SFC HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO INDIANA TOMORROW. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS EXTEND UPSTREAM TO THE RIDGE AXIS. DECREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS FROM CLEARING NRN INDIANA THIS TAF PD. WILL BE UPDATING ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT A LITTLE EARLIER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP INTENSITY FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT THUS EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE SNOWFALL, SO JUST A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FCST. SHORT TERM... LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR 160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION/UPDATE...DJT in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 621 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .AVIATION/UPDATE... LOW OVER SE ONTARIO PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA. PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW TO THE SE WAS MOVG SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE AT FWA IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WK CAA, MELTING OF FALLING SNOW, AND DIURNAL COOLING COMBINING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MI AND NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. FWA APPARENTLY STILL SOUTH OF THE RN/SN LINE ATTM BUT IT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING SO MENTIONED SNOW IN THE TAF. WK SFC HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO INDIANA TOMORROW. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS EXTEND UPSTREAM TO THE RIDGE AXIS. DECREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS FROM CLEARING NRN INDIANA THIS TAF PD. WILL BE UPDATING ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT A LITTLE EARLIER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP INTENSITY FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT THUS EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE SNOWFALL, SO JUST A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FCST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR 160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...SKIPPER AVIATION/UPDATE...DJT in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 321 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .SHORT TERM... LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR 160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...SKIPPER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1240 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .AVIATION... KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING WITH CLASSIC WRAPPED UP COMMA INDICATIVE OF A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TROWAL AIRSTREAM NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO REGION OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS...BURGEONING HEAVY RAIN SHIELD...AND COHERENT CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AS INSTABILITY IS RELEASED THROUGH UPRIGHT CONVECTION. TROWAL SIGNATURE HAS BEEN APPARENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL DATA...AND STORM CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS EXPECTED. GFS AGAIN THE PREFERRED SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR CONTINUITY AND HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FIELDS COMPARED TO THE NAM-WRF. STRONG SUGGESTIONS IN GFS TOTAL DEFORMATION...FGEN...AND H85-H5 QN VECTOR FIELDS OF DEVELOPING TROWAL EVOLVING/FEEDING AN INTENSE DEFORMATION ZONE TODAY. GIVEN TRACK OF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...MOST LIKELY PIVOT POINT FOR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE EXPECT DEFORMATION AXIS TO PIVOT ACROSS THE CWA AND EXIT THE NE ZONES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SPIKE THE GRIDS WITH 100 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY. GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL INCLUDE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN MENTION EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. QPF GRIDS SHIFTED STRONGLY HIGHER WITH ONE INCH OVER THE WEST AND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS IN THE EAST BEFORE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE EVENING MOST ZONES FOR EXPECTED PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR W/SW ZONES. POPS TAPERED BACK TO CHANCE...DRY SW...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEFORMATION FINALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL LOW. PRECIP TYPE ALSO BECOMES A CONCERN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS HAS INITIALIZED UPSTREAM AIRMASS A LITTLE TOO WARM FROM KAPX TO KGRB TO KDVN. EXPECT THIS COOLER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT AS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS BACK. GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL THIS AFTERNOON... LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FULL MELTING. AM CONCERNED THAT IF DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES AS INTENSE AS ADVERTISED IN MODEL DATA...0C LEVEL MAY BE SUPPRESSED LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR COLLAB PURPOSES HAVE LEFT PRECIP ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...THEN INTRODUCED A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW THIS EVENING AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL. VERY WET GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY ACCUM...ALTHOUGH IF PRECIP DOES GO TO ALL WET SNOW FOR A TIME IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS A SLUSHY COATING IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES IN EXTENDED FORECAST. SLOWED CLEARING A BIT ON FRIDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH DEPARTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF...1000-900MB MOISTURE MAY REMAIN BEFORE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS/THINS SC DECK. 5H LOW PUSHES NORTH TO NEAR JAMES BAY FRIDAY EVENING AND FILLS. MEANWHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES GREAT LAKES TROF SAT/SUN. FAVOR GFS/ECMWF OVER WARMER NAM GIVEN DEEP CONFLUENT NWRLY FLOW TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND M15C AIR AT 8H POISED OVER NRN B.C. BEST LES SETUP...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY WITH LAKE/8H DIFFERENTIALS ONLY TOUCHING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUED CHC POPS SAT NIGHT AND A BIT HIR SUNDAY. COLD POOL QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST...FAVORING COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LES POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY WANE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS BAJA TO LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE BUT WASHES OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT RIDGE. INCREASED LOW LEVEL WAA AND WITH MOISTURE INFLUX SUPPRESSING CLOUD COVER...LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE OSCILLATION FAVORED AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MON-WED. GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTING OF WARMER TREND AS LATEST MEX TEMPS EDGE TOWARD YDAYS HIGH END ENSEMBLE MAX. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL/HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 705 PM MST THU NOV 16 2006 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD TO REFLECT A BIT STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMP/DP/WIND PARAMETERS. AT 02Z WINDS IN YUMA AND AKRON COLORADO GUSTING INTO THE 30-40KT RANGE. 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM SHOWED 40+ 800 WINDS IN THIS AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS POCKET OF ENHANCED WINDS MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. SOME POSSIBLE REASONING BEHIND THE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME VIRGA TRYING TO REACH THE SURFACE PER LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS DONT THINK IT WILL REACH BUT THE HIGHER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO WILL NOT BE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL TREND GIVEN THE GOOD MIXING AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADJUSTED THEM USING THE 00Z RUC MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PARAMETERS. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1025 AM MST THU NOV 16 2006 .UPDATE... WEAK SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT INCREASED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 20S. SFC TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO ADJUSTED WINDS TO REFLECT ITS PASSAGE...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST. INCREASING CI CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AND GIVEN THIS TREND...ADJUSTED SKY COVERAGE UPWARD. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS TODAY DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE INCREASING SKY OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST WAS LEFT AS IS. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. -CLK && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 229 AM MST THU NOV 16 2006) DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATELLITE SH0WING THE FLOW IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK IN CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. VERY BROAD AND STRONG UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. FAST FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THIS LOW. UNORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 100 METERS OR ABOVE ARE IN THIS AREA IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN WESTERN RIDGE. POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS WERE CLOSE. THEY LOOKED TO BE UNDERDOING JET PUNCHING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WOULD HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE TO THE NAM AT THIS TIME. AT MID LEVELS...GOING BY THE HEIGHT ANALYSIS THE MODELS DID NOT SHOW ANY SERIOUS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS. THE MOST GLARING AREA WAS WITH THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW WHICH WAS NOT DEEP ENOUGH AND TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THE NAM WAS DOING THE BEST WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NAM AND RUC LOOKED TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS OF THE UNORGANIZED TROUGH A LITTLE BETTER. THE GFS LOOKED LIKE IT WAS HANDLING THE BROAD UPPER LOW THE BEST. THE MODELS LOOKED A LITTLE WET UPSTREAM. AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/RUC13 ARE HANDLING THE SURFACE PATTERN/WINDS THE BEST. MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES. NOT TOO MANY MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FLOW PATTERN...BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LIKE THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF HANDLING OF GULF COAST LOW BASED ON CURRENT PATTERN AND JET FORECASTS. WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE. TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE HAVING DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESS FAVORABLE WINDS OVER THE EAST. TO COMPLICATE THINGS IS TRYING TO GUESS HOW THICK THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER GETS. THICK CLOUD COVER NOT TOO FAR AWAY RIGHT NOW WHICH MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS. THE CLOUD COVER HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO THIN AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING OVER AREA UNTIL THIS AFTENOON TO KEEP CLOUDS FROM THICKENING UP TOO QUICKLY. ALSO THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THE JET PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. POINT SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT LOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...STRENGTH OF JET INCREASES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. THE GFS HAS THE JET SEGMENT FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SAG IT SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND PUTS THE AREA IN SUBSIDENCE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS SAGS IT SOUTH BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH MAYBE SOME WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE UKMET HAS THE JET FURTHER NORTH AND MORE UNFAVORABLE. LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS MOISTEN UP THE SOUNDINGS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. BECAUSE BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE TOO MOIST AND UNCERTAINTY BASED ON SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL CHANGE ORIENTATION OF SILENT POPS. FOR MAXES...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY BEHIND TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL HAVE A COOLER AIR MASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO FORECAST SO WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA IN THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DURING THE DAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE MOST DEFINITE WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SHOVE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN SOUNDINGS UP A GREAT DEAL DURING THE DAY. NOT SURE ABOUT THIS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALSO LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT THAN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DRIER LOWER LEVELS WILL NEED SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE JET IS UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE DRY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT. IF SOMETHING DOES HAPPEN...IT WILL BE LIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE END OF THE DAY SO LOWERED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE COOLER GUIDANCE THE BEST. AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. $$ && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1111 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .MESOSCALE... WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS PENETRATING WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FROM THE WEST. 13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 993MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. A WARM FRONT IS PUNCHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES TONGUE OF RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (INCREASING FROM 12Z RAOB VALUES OF 1.3" TO 1.7"). MEANWHILE...DRY SLOT ALOFT IS OVERRUNNING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. GIVEN RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEWPOINTS JUST BEHIND THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CURRENT THINKING IS STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEST OF CURRENT PRECIPITATION. ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TO NORTH LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR INDICES ARE QUITE HIGH TODAY. WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON KLWX WIND PROFILE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AT 1KFT...INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AT 3KFT. 06Z GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 HELICITY GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KFT SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. GIVEN ABOVE...THINKING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GFS IS PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME GIVEN RECENT ISSUES WITH THE NAM (OVER-DEEPENING TROUGHS IS SLOWING DOWN TIMING OF COLD FRONT). && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... HAVE MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. HEADLINES: HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADD THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HEADLINE. WILL ALSO ADD THE TORNADO WATCH. TEMPERATURES: HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALREADY RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VIRGINA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. LOWER 70S ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO RUNNING HIGH TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA...AND MIDDLE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NOTED OVER THE NC/VA BORDER...AND ONLY EXPECT THESE VALUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS: OVERALL THE WORDING IN THE ZONES WILL NOT BE CHANGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS: HAVE INCREASED THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY SERVE TO FURTHER TIGHTEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT. MOST PLACES SHOULD READ SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT OVER LAND. QPF: CONTINUED THINKING IS WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN. THE METRO AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE HAVE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AROUND THE 1.6 INCH MARK FOR 6 HOURS. THERE WILL BE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ON ROADWAYS. FALLEN LEAVES MAY ALSO CLOG STORM DRAINS. SKY: CLOUDY. A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION... CIGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...HOWEVER IAD HAS A LIFR CIG AND VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO AVERAGE MVFR AND BE REDUCED TO LIFR IN THE HEAVY RAIN. VSBYS ALSO SHOULD AVERAGE MVFR...WITH LIFR IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING A BACK EDGE OF PRECIP...EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE DRY SLOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM...WITH 35 KT LIKELY. && .MARINE... HAVE RAISED A GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ON THE BAY ARE RUNNING AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED...WITH 15 KT SUSTAINED ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC. ONLY AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. ALREADY HAVE OBSERVED SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE OVER LAND (NOT PRECIP RELATED). HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED 40 KT GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ALSO ADD THE TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ007-011- 014-016>018. VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ MESOSCALE...SJR SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...LISTEMAA md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 310 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE W IMPACTING THE CNTRL CONUS. TWO SHRTWV OF NOTE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST AND MOST SGNFT IS LIFTING NEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY AND ON TRACK TO MOVE TO SE ONTARIO. N EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED INTO NCNTRL LWR MI. HOWEVER...THIS BAND OF ENHANCED CLD IS HAVING TROUBLE MOVING INTO VERY DRY STABLE MID TROP OVER THE UPR GRT LKS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB RAOB/LOCAL TAMDAR SDNGS. WEAKER SHRTWV NOTED MOVING E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. THIS SHRTWV HAS NOT HAD AS MUCH SIGNIFICANCE AS THE SYS TO THE S BECAUSE OF DRY MID LVLS IN PLACE THIS FAR N. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXED PCPN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE WRN CWA IN AN AREA WHERE GFS SHOWS A BIT HIER INVRN BASE NEAR H85 AND WITHIN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY BLO THIS INVRN. TEMPS WITHIN MOIST LYR WELL ABV -10C...SO PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT SIDE...A MIX OF -SN/-DZ/-PL PER SFC OBS/SPOTTER REPORTS. OTRW...WDSPRD LO CLD NOTED ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AS TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO INVRN BASE CLOSER TO H9 AT MOST SITES. FARTHER W...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED MOVING THRU MT... WITH HI CLD TO ITS E DRIFTING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER STRONG JET MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW DRIVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS/CLD TRENDS/TEMPS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO IN THE OH VALLEY MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AND INTO WRN QUEBEC IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...FAR ENUF E TO KEEP MAIN PCPN SHIELD TO THE E OF THE ENTIRE FA. IN FACT...FA FCST TO BE UNDER THE DOMINATION OF DNVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO. MAINTENANCE OF LO INVRN HGT AND GFS FCST OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WRAPPING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS CONTINUED LO CLD OVC. SINCE LGT PCPN WAS OBSVD TDAY...CONSIDERED MENTION OF PTCHY -DZ TNGT IN THESE UPSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER...CURRENT DWPT DEPRESSIONS/FCST GFS SDNGS SHOWING A SHALLOW INVERTED V LOOK TO LLVL T/TD PROFILES SUG NR SFC AIR WL BE DRY ENUF TO AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. WL MENTION PTCHY MIXED PCPN THIS EVNG OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND THEN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL LATER TNGT WHEN GFS SHOWS SOMEWHAT HIER MIXING RATIO IN THE SUB INVRN LYR WRAPPING INTO THIS AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG OF LO CLD OVER THE FAR W LATE AS GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW SOME DRYING BLO SHALLOW INVRN AND NAM HINTS AT ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW... BUT ARRIVAL OF HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW IN MT WARRANTS MOCLDY WORDING. OTRW...TENDED TOWARD THE HIER END OF MOS GUIDANCE OVER ALL BUT THE INTERIOR W WITH STEADY N WIND OFF LK SUP. POTENTIAL FOR CLRG/LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SHELTERED INTERIOR W SUPPORTS LWR TEMPS FCST THERE. GOING FCST LO TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. EXPECT SC TO ERODE W-E TMRW PER GFS FCST SDNGS AS CNDN LO PRES PULLS TO THE NE AND SHRTWV RDG IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING MT SHRTWV/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT CLRG WL BE SLOW AS SC OBSVD TO THE W OF RDG AXIS THIS AFTN OVER MN. SC WL PROBABLY NEVER EXIT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MQT...WHICH WL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN EVOLVING WNW FLOW. EVEN WHERE LO CLD DOES BREAK...LOOK FOR INCRSG MID/HI CLD AS GFS SHOWS INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE 290K-300K SFCS (H65-75) IN THE AFTN IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHRTWV. HOWEVER...THE H85-75 LYR WL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN PER OBSVD 12Z BIS SDNG. MIXING TO INVRN BASE ARND H9-875 YIELDS HI TEMPS 35-42. KC .LONG TERM (FRI NGT THRU NEXT THU)... PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE PRIMARY CONCERN. FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...PV ANAMOLY/SHORTWAVE/UPR JET CURRENTLY OVR PAC NW TRACKS INTO N PLAINS BY FRI AM. PORTION OF THE WAVE DROPS SE INTO OHIO VALLEY BY FRI NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER PORTION MOVES INTO UPR MI. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENT ON 280-285K SFC (950-800MB) FRI NIGHT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOUNDINGS INITIALLY ARE DRY IN THE H85-H75 LAYER. THIS DRY LAYER BEGINS TO ERODE THROUGH 06Z OVR W CWA...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME AREAS OF LGT SNOW BREAK OUT. SHORTWAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY THEN SLIDES ACROSS UPR MI THROUGH SAT. EXTENT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT AND MARGINAL LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL SNOW AMOUNTS. THERMAL TROFFING AT H85 DROPS INTO UPR LAKES LATE SATURDAY. GFS H85 TEMPS OF -8C TO -10C ARE MUCH COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLES. H85 TEMPS AROUND -7C (PER NAM/ECMWF/UKMET) AND WATER TEMPS +6C WILL YIELD LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT NIGHT. MAYBE A PERIOD OF STRONGER LK EFFECT SAT NIGHT AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE PLUME SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES. QPF PRETTY MINIMAL EVEN WITH AGRESSIVE GFS SO EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. LK EFFECT STRETCHES INTO SUN BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS...INVERSION LOWERING BLO H9...TEMPS RISING TO -3C AT TOP OF INVERSION SHOULD ALL HELP LK EFFECT PCPN DIMINISH/END IN THE AFTN. 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED CLEAR SAILING INTO MON NIGHT WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. 12Z GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED IDEA WITH IMPULSE DIGGING INTO MEAN EAST COAST TROF WITH SOME H9-H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO EAST CWA 09Z MON THROUGH 15Z MON. 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN NOT AS FAR WEST WITH FEATURE... SHOWING IT DROPPING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z MON. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME UPR LEVEL RIDGING FM LWR GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND IN BTWN UPR TROF OVR HUDSON BAY AND OVR SE CONUS. SO...NOT SURE IF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG MORE S THAN E AS GFS SHOWS. LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. TUE INTO THU...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BTWN OPERATIONAL MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS TOO. OVERALL...AN AREA OF WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE OVR EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WHILE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SET UP OVR MUCH OF PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. SPREAD BTWN MODEL MEMBERS IS MINIMAL SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGH. A WEAK TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE...BUT UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVR NORTHERN ONTARIO. 12Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM PREV SOLNS OF DIPPING HEIGHTS OVR UPR LAKES FOR TUE AND BRINGING QPF ACROSS CWA. 12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT MAIN UPR SUPPORT STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH SO HAVE WENT WITH DRY WX. UPR RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT REGION INTO THANKSGIVING. H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +5C BY THU AFTN...BUT MIXING TO H85 WILL BE TOUGH. EVEN SO...TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THU. JLA && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 621 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND MUCH OF INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CEILINGS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. BOTH NAM12 AND RUC HOWEVER KEEP THIS AREA OF DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS 25 KNOTS OR GREATER AROUND MBS. THE DETROIT AREA SHOULD SEE LOWER WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW TRACK. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING SE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITHIN THE BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IN/SOUTHERN OH IS ASSOCIATED WITH DRYER MID LEVEL AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THESE REGION OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL RESIDE AROUND THE DETROIT AREA...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER AT DTW AND DET. CHANCES OF THUNDER LOOK MUCH LESS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT A VERY DEEP UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 990MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS REGION OF LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. ALSO NOTED ON THE SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IS A WELL DEFINED REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS FAR AS MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...THE NAM AND UKMET WERE A LITTLE TOO WEAK WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS SUPERIOR. PREFERENCE THUS CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SFC LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING...THEN TO THE EAST OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. PER GFS...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF DETROIT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO JAMES BAY OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION TODAY. 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO RISE TO +4 TO +6C OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI...JUST CLIPPING THE SAGINAW VALLEY. AREA RADAR DATA IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CONFIRM THIS AS SOME BANDED STRUCTURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN TODAY...WITH MODEL QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH TODAY...ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRYING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL BOOST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS SHOWN IN BOTH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT A LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRY MID LEVEL AIR. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH AND K INDICES NEAR 30...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL WRAP BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES PER 00Z RAOBS...THE OTHER MODELS WERE TOO WARM. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4 TO -5 C OVERNIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW FREEZING LEVELS OVER 1500FT THROUGH 06Z. SO WILL CARRY JUST A MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 06Z AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED HOWEVER AS COOLING DUE TO MELTING MAY COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE QUICKLY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS WE TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY TO A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM BEFORE INCREASING AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A RATHER INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA WITH AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET OF NEAR 150KTS PER SATELLITE DERIVED DATA JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IT WILL BE A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY THAT DIVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR (AND SNOW SHOWERS...PERHAPS LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE LAKE HURON ADJACENT COUNTIES). THEN A RATHER NICE REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND EAST COAST TROUGH... TRANSITIONING TOWARD A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS IT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN FLOW. CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW YET NEAR SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO A TOUGH CALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL FORECAST LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB. AS DAYTIME HEATING UNFOLDS...ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FALL AS A MIX BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND DECREASES POPS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WAVE...CROSSES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MOISTEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT REMAIN RATHER DRY BELOW. HOWEVER...IF SOME STRATUS DOES LINGER AROUND...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM ABOVE TO BRING ABOUT SOME FLURRIES AND THIS IS WELL COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW 700MB WITH -5C TO -10C 850MB TEMPS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ARE BELOW 0C WITH TOP OF THE MOIST COLUMN NEAR -15C FOR GOOD ICE NUCLEATION. CROSS SECTION HOWEVER SHOW LITTLE LIFT WITHIN THE MOISTURE YET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR BOUNDARY FLOW TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LAKE HURON COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AND WILL EXTEND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THOSE ADJACENT COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOES EXIST. THEN A NICE WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE 0C 850MB TEMPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO MAKE IT DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE FRONT SOUTHWARD WHILE THE DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER WITH NO FRONT IN THE AREA. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH HALF UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE LONG TERM....BGM AVIATION...CONSIDINE YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NEAR TERM AND W/W/A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 630 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 ...HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT... .NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)... WILL PUT UP WIND ADVISORY FOR NYC...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL 06Z AS WIND GUSTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40 MPH RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 50 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY MIXES DOWN 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. RADARS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SHOW IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AREA. THIS LINE WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AS OF YET...SO WE SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVING FROM NYC WEST BETWEEN 23Z-00Z. JUDGING FROM OBS OVER SOUTHERN NJ ATTM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WE COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED S-SE WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH (JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) EVEN BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CRANKS UP TO 55-65 KT THIS EVENING AS BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTION APPROACHES...WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING VIA THE LLJ AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG/DIFLUENT UPPER JET OVERCOMING MEAGER INSTABILITY TO SPARK PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA FROM NYC WEST INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FORECAST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LLJ...TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS TO +12C...PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX WELL INTO THE 30S...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CT/LI... WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST CELLS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT CLEARS NYC AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT...AND ERN LI/SE CT BY 12Z-13Z...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING BEHIND IT. LEANED TOWARD SLOWER NAM ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP ALREADY SLOW TO ENTER THE CWA...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS SLOWED THINGS DOWN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA PRECIP-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRI. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRI WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 60. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWER 40S IN NYC AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO 50-55 ON SAT AND AROUND 50 ON SUN. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUN MORNING AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GENERALLY FOLLOWED 06Z GFS...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECWMF AND 0Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE 12Z GFS...FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE CLOSEST TO THE AREA...BUT THE 12Z AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE FATHER OUT TO SEA...SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY OF THE CWA WILL EVEN BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA FOR THANKSGIVING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK...AND THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THERE BY MID WEEK. THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES IT GO...GENERALLY 2 CAMPS FOR NOW...ONE IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEE...THE OTHER IS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST...AS IT APPEARS THE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR IT TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME...IT BEARS WATCHING. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGON...WHERE MARINE LAYER IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. HAVE 15-20KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH 40KT OF WIND AT 1000 FT. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH 55-60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 1500 FEET FLOWING OVER 15-25KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN 10-13Z FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...CURRENTLY LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS READING PA. RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND 22-04Z. IF LIGHTNING EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PA...WILL AMEND TAFS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CB/S...LIKELY FROM 0-3Z (1ST CUT). THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION (AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS 20-23Z AND EASTERN AREAS 23-02Z...INITIALLY STARTING OFF AS MVFR...BUT GOING OVER TO IFR WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. SOME AREAS OF LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9Z WEST AND AROUND 12Z EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OF 1-2 HOURS AFTER MODERATE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ALONG WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND THE SAME TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AT 10KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 19Z...KOKX WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 1 KFT AND ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THIS IS MIXING DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A 60-70 KT LLJ JUST OFF THE DECK OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS...AND WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING BUT WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO SCA LEVELS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN...SO SCA HERE EXTENDS THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...SUSCEPTIBLE AREA SEEMS TO BE THE BACK BAYS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND TIDAL DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING ARE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 22Z-23Z FROM NYC WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAINS MOVE IN TONIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE. AREAL QPF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI/CT...AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN HOUR. RAINFALL OF THESE AMOUNTS/RATES APPROACHES/EXCEEDS FFG FOR SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST NJ...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ006>008-010>012. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>078-080. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>076. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY EST FOR ANZ353-355. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350. && NV ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO W/A/A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 438 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 ...HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT... .NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...RADARS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SHOW IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AREA. THIS LINE WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AS OF YET...SO WE SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVING FROM NYC WEST BETWEEN 23Z-00Z. JUDGING FROM OBS OVER SOUTHERN NJ ATTM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WE COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED S-SE WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH (JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) EVEN BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CRANKS UP TO 55-65 KT THIS EVENING AS BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTION APPROACHES...WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING VIA THE LLJ AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG/DIFLUENT UPPER JET OVERCOMING MEAGER INSTABILITY TO SPARK PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA FROM NYC WEST INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FORECAST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LLJ...TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS TO +12C...PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX WELL INTO THE 30S...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CT/LI... WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST CELLS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT CLEARS NYC AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT...AND ERN LI/SE CT BY 12Z-13Z...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING BEHIND IT. LEANED TOWARD SLOWER NAM ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP ALREADY SLOW TO ENTER THE CWA...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS SLOWED THINGS DOWN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA PRECIP-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRI. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRI WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 60. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWER 40S IN NYC AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO 50-55 ON SAT AND AROUND 50 ON SUN. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUN MORNING AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GENERALLY FOLLOWED 06Z GFS...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECWMF AND 0Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE 12Z GFS...FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE CLOSEST TO THE AREA...BUT THE 12Z AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE FATHER OUT TO SEA...SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY OF THE CWA WILL EVEN BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA FOR THANKSGIVING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK...AND THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THERE BY MID WEEK. THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES IT GO...GENERALLY 2 CAMPS FOR NOW...ONE IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEE...THE OTHER IS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST...AS IT APPEARS THE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR IT TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME...IT BEARS WATCHING. IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGON...WHERE MARINE LAYER IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. HAVE 15-20KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH 40KT OF WIND AT 1000 FT. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH 55-60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 1500 FEET FLOWING OVER 15-25KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN 10-13Z FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...CURRENTLY LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS READING PA. RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND 22-04Z. IF LIGHTNING EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PA...WILL AMEND TAFS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CB/S...LIKELY FROM 0-3Z (1ST CUT). THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION (AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS 20-23Z AND EASTERN AREAS 23-02Z...INITIALLY STARTING OFF AS MVFR...BUT GOING OVER TO IFR WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. SOME AREAS OF LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9Z WEST AND AROUND 12Z EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OF 1-2 HOURS AFTER MODERATE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ALONG WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR AROUND THE SAME TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AT 10KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE...AS OF 19Z...KOKX WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 1 KFT AND ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THIS IS MIXING DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A 60-70 KT LLJ JUST OFF THE DECK OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS...AND WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING BUT WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO SCA LEVELS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN...SO SCA HERE EXTENDS THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...SUSCEPTIBLE AREA SEEMS TO BE THE BACK BAYS ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND TIDAL DEPARTURES NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING ARE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 22Z-23Z FROM NYC WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAINS MOVE IN TONIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE. AREAL QPF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI/CT...AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN HOUR. RAINFALL OF THESE AMOUNTS/RATES APPROACHES/EXCEEDS FFG FOR SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST NJ...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ006>008-010>012. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>078-080. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY EST FOR ANZ353-355. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350. && NEAR/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION/LONG TERM...PFM MARINE...AL ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 930 AM CST THU NOV 16 2006 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS WITH NO REAL MODEL PICKING UP ON MVFR/IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY EAST. MIXING DOES INCREASE FROM VALLEY WEST TODAY WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW ADIABATIC LAYER AROUND 18Z AND AFTER WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT LOWER CIGS FOR SOME FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF ABOVE FARTHER EAST CONCERNED LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOUGH LIMITING ANY SOLAR. FARTHER WEST MODEST WARM ADVECTION...MIXING AND SOME SOLAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES FROM VALLEY EAST. SEEING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS NW FA FROM KMVX-88D HOWEVER WITH COLUMN DRY BLO 700 MB VIA 12Z UA PLOTS RETURNS LIKELY ONLY ADVANCING MID CLOUD COVER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 133 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY SLOT THAT AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVING RETURNED. PRECIPITATION THAT IS NOW PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF MID LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH 50H CLOSED LOW. THIS FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS CEILINGS LOWER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A SW-NE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT STRETCHES FROM IL INTO MI APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NE. ITS ONLY AFFECT SHOULD BE TO THE KDAY TAF SITE AS CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO...BUT REMAIN MVFR. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT INTO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE AREA...SHUTTING OFF MOST OF THE PRECIP AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS TODAY AS WELL AS LOWERING THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRESENCE OF DRY SLOT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH. UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF. WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN 1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S. RYAN LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. TIPTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/ LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1126 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE AREA...SHUTTING OFF MOST OF THE PRECIP AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS TODAY AS WELL AS LOWERING THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRESENCE OF DRY SLOT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH. UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF. WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN 1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S. RYAN LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. TIPTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/ LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH. UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF. WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE. DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN 1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S. RYAN LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. RYAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. TIPTON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/ LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 236 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL USA. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING WEST INTO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN. THIS RESULTED IN SOME BRISK WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WELL SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AS WELL. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON. THIS TREND NOW SHOWING UP TOWARDS FOND DU LAC. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/WRF...GFS AND RUC HAVE A THIN MVFR CLOUD DECK DEPICTED. THIS LAYER IS 1000 FEET THICK AT BEST. THE GFS AND RUC DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAM/WRF TRAPPING A SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF FEWER CLOUDS. SO...MORE AREAS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE THIS EVENING SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS TO WEST A NEGATING FACTOR. WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE EXACT WORDING IN FORECAST. MAINLY QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. NAM/WRF...GFS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MARGINAL...DESPITE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOMING MOIST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP. SO...WILL CONTINUE FLURRY MENTION FOR SATURDAY...AND LINGER IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV MOS HIGHS...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECTED CLOUDS. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN USA INTO FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD. RESULTING RIDGING OCCURS UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS OVER THE REGION...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TAKE HOLD. MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING...WITH SOME MODELS NOT EXTENDING WARM ADVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A DRY PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN MEX MOS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WOOD wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1238 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 .AVIATION... STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCT LGT SHRA DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WEAK TROUGH NOTED IN SURFACE WIND FIELDS. ALSO SOME CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN GIVEN NW FLOW AND MARGINAL DELTA-T. HAVE CARRIED SOME -DZ AT KFWA THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD TO COVER. EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT MAINLY MVFR STRATUS TO DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY. DID OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN TRENDS IN MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS...AND APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY AID IN DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ALLOW STRATUS TO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. DID A LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING OF ENDING OF PRECIP, BUT ALSO MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH WINDS ALONG LAKESHORE AND AT THE BUOY STILL NEAR GALE FORCE AT 02Z, EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE ZONES TO 08Z AND ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRI EVE AS WAVES WILL TAKE AWHILE TO COME DOWN. SHORT TERM... LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR 160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST FRIDAY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ AVIATION...HITCHCOCK UPDATE...DJT SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...SKIPPER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1043 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 .UPDATE... MORE WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW NOW SHOWING UP OVR N MN. 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP WHILE TAMDAR DATA JUST EAST TOWARD CYQT AND 12Z KGRB SOUNDING STILL SHOWED LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 875MB TO 675MB. COMPARED RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO REALITY AT KINL AT 12Z. RUC DID BETTER JOB SHOWING THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTENING. RUC H7-H8 AND H8-H9 AND H95 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALL DECREASE MARKEDLY OVR W LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 18Z AND INTO WEST TIER OF CWA BTWN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENT MQT VWP ALREADY SHOWS THIS MOISTENING UNDERWAY WITH ECHOES TO 4.5 KFT AGL AND ADDITIONAL ECHOES LOWERING TO 11.5 KFT. ONCE THE TROP SATURATES...EXPECT LGT SNOW OVR MN TO PUSH INTO WEST CWA THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE OVR MN PRESSES EAST. PCPN PERHAPS WILL BE HELPED ALONG SOME BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WEST FLOW AS WELL. BLYR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT MENTION OF DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SNOW FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. BASED ON RUC THEN NAM GUIDANCE ...EXPECT THE LGT SNOW TO STREAK INTO NCNTRL UPR MI TOWARD 00Z. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS ON INTO TONIGHT FOR THESE TRENDS. FARTHER EAST DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN GRIDS MOSTLY EAST OF MQT-SAW CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR. THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE LGT PCPN IS VERY SPOTTY IF IT IS OCCURRING AT ALL. THIS DESPITE MQT VWP SHOWING MOISTURE TO 4.5 KFT AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION SUFFICIENT FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SUB CLOUD LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING 6 TO 8 DEGREES F SO THIS IS LIKELY INHIBITING LGT PCPN ATTM. WINDS BECOME MORE NW THROUGH AFTN FM MQT TO EAST AND LIKE PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THINK A LONGER OVER WATER TRAJECTORY MAY EVENTUALLY HELP OUT DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. ALSO...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED. SO...MAY SEE AN UPTICK TO LGT PCPN DOWNWIND OF LK SUPERIOR DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND. OVERALL THOUGH...BETTER PCPN WILL BE FAR W THOUGH BY LATE AFTN. TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED 420 AM EST)... MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT PCPN TODAY AND LES OVER THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. RESULT IS PACIFIC FLOW DOMINATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CONUS AND SW CANADA. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA. THIS WAVE WILL POSE THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SYNOPTIC PCPN AS IT HEADS ESE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS ON ITS WAY SE...BOUND FOR THE MEAN TROF POSITION CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN WI/ERN MN INTO MO. UNDER NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI. 00Z RAOBS AND EVENING TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM FLIGHTS OUT OF CYQT ALL DEPICT VERY SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS. AT CWPL...INVERSION WAS BASED AT 800MB WITH TEMP OF -12C. AT CYQT...INVERSION WAS AT 850MB WITH TEMP OF -10C. AT KINL...INVERSION WAS AT 875MB WITH TEMP OF -7C. WITH CYQT SOUNDING MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS CROSSING THE LAKE...THE -10C TEMP AT INVERSION BASE IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI. -10C SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF -SN/FLURRIES SINCE TEMPS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE NUCLEATION IN MOST CASES (-SN HAS FALLEN HERE AT THE OFFICE OVERNIGHT). HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY -DZ/-FZDZ WITH LOWEST TEMP IN MOIST LAYER AT -10C. AS SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA MOVES TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE EVENING...HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST TO THE W DISSIPATES AS IT DRIFTS E. RESULT WILL BE N WINDS THIS MORNING BACKING NW THIS AFTN. WITH BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT OUT OF FAR NE MN...THERE IS HOPE OF GETTING RID OF THE STRATOCU OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA (MAINLY W) TODAY AS NW WINDS ADVECT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE UP FOR WHATEVER CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290K SFC) WHICH IS GENERATING THE MID CLOUDS IS QUITE STRONG RIGHT NOW IN NW MN INTO ADJACENT MANITOBA/ONTARIO. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT PCPN IS OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THIS ASCENT AS IT SHIFTS ESE TODAY. WEAKENING ASCENT AND THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS DEPICTED ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING (850-650MB) SUGGEST PCPN SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PCPN (FLURRIES/DZ/-FZDZ) IN THE FCST OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING GIVEN SUFFICIENT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW. PCPN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE AFTN AS WINDS BECOME NW AND LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT SOME (MORE OF AN INVERTED-V PROFILE)...SIMILAR TO WHAT 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED. MIXING TO AROUND 900MB OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WHICH FAVORS LOWER END OF VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NW ONTARIO THIS EVENING ONLY APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850-800MB ERODING THRU THE EVENING OVER THE W WITH DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AS VIEWED IN QVECTOR PROGS IS QUITE WEAK...AND THERE IS NO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AFTER COLUMN MOISTENS. SO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR -SN ALTHOUGH IT MAY END UP BEING JUST FLURRIES. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W...850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -7C BY 12Z SAT. COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK LIFT...WOULD EXPECT LES TO DEVELOP. SFC TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N OR NNW WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. NONETHELESS...PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION...1 INCH OR LESS...GIVEN LATE START TO DEVELOPING LES. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF FCST AREA DRY OR JUST MENTIONED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR LINGERING. DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADS E ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY SAT. ALONG WITH LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING... EXPECT SOME -SN/FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA (CHC POPS). MEANWHILE...SFC TROF WILL PASS S OF ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN NNW/N LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. LOWEST 850MB TEMPS (AROUND -8C) WILL BE FOUND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION FALLING TO 4-5KFT AND BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ABOVE INVERSION IN THE DRY AIR...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE NNW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING. ON THE KEWEENAW... NNW FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LES AS IT IS TOWARD KIWD. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC RANGE THERE. OVER THE NCNTRL...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BURST OF SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SFC TROF. OTHERWISE...850MB TEMPS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN...WHICH PUTS CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR LES. EVEN SO...LONGER FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT LES COVERAGE AND LIKELY POPS. HAVE PAINTED ONLY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NCNTRL SINCE LIKE THE W THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END INLAND SAT EVENING. LES WILL THEN DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS WAA GETS UNDERWAY. IN FACT...IT SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE W TO END ALL LES OVERNIGHT (850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -4C BY 12Z SUN). LIGHT LES OVER THE E WILL END EARLY SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE. A GENERALLY QUIET/DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE OVER SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST THANKSGIVING. SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SSE THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF FORCING STAYS E OF FCST AREA. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS DEPICTED BY GFS FCST SOUNDINGS... NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY PCPN AT THIS POINT. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR DOES SWIPE THE AREA MON MORNING WITH GFS BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -7C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS COULD GET LES GOING OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS INDICATED BY GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CHC IS VERY MINIMAL. ALSO...GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SUCH COLD AIR S. SO...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST MON. MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E FROM THE ROCKIES/SCNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON BEFORE FLATTENING AND LEAVING ZONAL FLOW TO DOMINATE THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WITH MAIN JET ALONG OR N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...MILD/DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS UPPER MI. ONE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THRU THE FLOW WILL PASS OVER OR N OF THE UPPER LAKES TUE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONG...BUT CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE SIGNIFICANT (OVER 100MB). SO ANY PCPN SHOULD BE N OF HERE WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTENING TO OCCUR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 954 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 .SYNOPSIS... SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EARLY TTHIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ASSOC/W THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH UPSTREAM IR SAT AND SFC OBS SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MS/AL/TN/KY/IN. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AFTER 21Z. WITH FULL SUN...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 875-900 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC SOUNDINGS HINT AT A LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL. THIS LEAVES THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLAT CU...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ELSEWHERE IN THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FORECAST AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TOWARDS GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. -VINCENT && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 326 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHERE FORECAST WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SUN ANGLES SUGGEST LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS. REORIENTED COOLEST HIGHS SATURDAY TO THE NORTHEAST TO MATCH THE LOWER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THAT AREA. SOME CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGIA AND DRIVE IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING. ASSUMING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY CORRECT... SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT APPEAR TO FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST TO PRESENT A PRECIPITATION THREAT TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AN ADJUSTMENT NORTH OR WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN FUTURE MODEL FORECAST WOULD JEOPARDIZE THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL BELOW NORMAL WITH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST AT THIS TIME. AVIATION... WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AT 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM 12Z ONWARD AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...RESULTING IN A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. -BL/RHJ && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 1024 AM MST FRI NOV 17 2006 .DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES. LIGHT SPRINKLES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS REPORTED AT TWIN FALLS AND MCCALL THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST IN SE OREGON TODAY AND SW IDAHO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER IMPULSE NEAR 40N 130W OR 500-800 MILES WEST OF BOISE GAINING DEFINITION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WILL CROSS THE ORE-IDA BORDER AROUND 6Z/11 PM TONIGHT. BOUY 46651 AND SEVERAL SHIPS OF OPPORTUNITY INDICATE A DEFINED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE PRECIP WTIH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AS THEIR MASS FIELDS APPEAR WEAK COMPARED TO SATELLITE BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE. LARGE SCALE IS IN BROAD RIDGING AHEAD OF MASSIVE GULF OF ALASKA LOW...SO WEAK SOLUTION OFFERED BY NMM/GFS AND RUC WAS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AVERAGING 250/18 KTS AT 12000 FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. MOISTURE FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 17Z SATURDAY. AFTER 17Z SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT THIS TIME WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MORE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWFA AS THE WAVE GETS CLOSER. THE SECOND WAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND APPEARS TO BE TAPPING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. THIS WAVE ARRIVES OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR A SECOND SHOT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. BOTH THESE FEATURES ARE QUITE SUBTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PICKING UP ON THESE WEAK SYSTEMS. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO THE VEST AND GO BASICALLY WITH MOS POPS IN THIS SITUATION WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. AFTER THE SECOND WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT...FLOW AMPLIFIES ALLOWING A RIDGE TO INTENSIFY ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES HIGHER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. NOT QUITE SURE WHY MOS GUIDANCE IS HANDLING SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS SO COOL OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT...THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TO THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT FEEL WE ARE QUITE INTO THE INVERSION PATTERN JUST YET...SO WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FORECASTED ALONG WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND GOOD WARMING AT MID LEVELS...FEEL THE JUSTIFICATION IS THERE FOR A VERY MILD MID NOVEMBER DAY ON SATURDAY WITH 60F OR GREATER LIKELY IN THE SNAKE RIVER CANYONS BETWEEN MOUNTAIN HOME AND TWIN FALLS WHILE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. THIS FORECAST IS FOR AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. MEAN TROUGH REMAINS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING HIGHS ON SUNDAY 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS START TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONTAL FEATURE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST AS AN OPEN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...MULTIPLE WAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. THE REMAINING WAVES BECOME PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE TIMING MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY...THE IDEA IS FOR THE TROUGH ITSELF TO PASS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON ON THURSDAY MORNING AND IDAHO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE TROUGH TO 3000-4000 FT MSL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...VM AVIATION.....JT PREV SHORT TERM...GS PREV LONG TERM....DF id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 220 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)... A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN. EARLIER LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA HAVE ERODED... THOUGH WE ARE LEFT WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF KMCI. KLVX RADAR IS DETECTING THESE CLOUDS AROUND 15-20KFT ON THE VWP. BASED ON LATEST NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...WE EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF TONIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. DONT EXPECT CIGS TO GO MUCH BELOW 10KFT. ASSOC WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...A WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO BACK TO S/SE THIS EVENING...TURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FEATURE PASSES BY. THROUGH SAT MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER PRES GRADIENT DOES INCREASE SOMEWHAT SAT AFTN... LIKELY LEADING TO SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN 10-15KTS OR SO. LAPSE RATES INCREASE QUITE A BIT SAT AFTN...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CU...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGES OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER OUR NE ZONES AFTER 18Z/SAT. WILL MENTION CHC OF SPRINKLES FOR SAT AFTN IN THIS AREA. GIVEN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...WENT A FEW DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OUR NE 1/2 OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MEAN IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2. CS .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN SYNC THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE INCREASING TREND IN BOTH MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY. WILL BE USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THRU THIS PERIOD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WHERE NORMAL IS MIDDLE 50S AND MIDDLE/UPPER 30S. TROUGH STARTS TO WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED MENTIONED OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP TYPE DATA SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP NOT LIKELY...WITH BL A BIT TOO WARM AND DRIER AIR IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. COLD DAY SUNDAY WITH TWO SEPARATE SHRTWVS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ONE IN THE LATE MORNING AND ANOTHER IN THE EVENING...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THRU THE ENTIRE DAY AND CARRIED CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OMEGAS (LIFT) INCREASE WITH THE SHRTWV PASSAGE...YET MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...BUT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TAPPED...SOME SCTD COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY...WITH SCTD AREAS OF A MIX WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AN UNDER A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS BEST...NO ACCUMS OF SNOW. H850 TEMPS DROP TO -7 OR -8C BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE...HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SLIGHT CLEARING FROM NW TO SE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MEDIUM AND EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE THE LAST WEEK...SOME OF THE FINER MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT HAVE BECOME MUCH CLEARER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WILL BE USING A BLEND OF THE EURO AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THIS SOLUTION SMOOTHES OUT SOME THE DISCONTINUITIES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ATLC COAST CUTOFF NEXT WEEK...AND HAS FAIRLY SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES...ALLOWING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... MONDAY FINDS A +2.5 STD DEV RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH INTO NC CANADA...AND A -3.5 STD DEV ANOMALY CLOSE TO FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE APP MTNS TOWARDS THE ATLC COAST...H850 TEMPS ARE COLD AT -6 TO -8C...AND A VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET IS ROARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE THE WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST...WITH COLD TEMPS NEARLY 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST...AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY TO +2 TO +4 BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE RH THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AT WORST WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... EASY TRAVELING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...OUTSIDE OF THE SE CONUS COAST ON TURKEY DAY EVE (WEDNESDAY) THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG +2.5 STD DEV RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AGAINST THE DEEP CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE SE ATLC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SUN FORECAST FOR THE DAY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WOULD ALLOW BETTER HEATING...ONE OTHER FACTOR IS THE H850 TEMPS NEAR 8 TO 10 C BY WED AFTN. WARMING H850 TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 12C THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN TURKEY DAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. MEXMOS TRENDS ARE WARMER WED THRU FRI...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...OF WHICH BOTH ARE SKEWED OR BIASED BACK TOWARDS CLIMO LATER IN THE FORECAST...SO WHEN THEY GO ABOVE NORMAL DAYS 5 TO 7 ITS USUALLY A GOOD THING TO ADD A FEW DEGREES THERE TO ACCOMMODATE THE KNOWN BIAS...HAVE NOT DONE SO COMPLETELY HERE...BUT WILL CONSIDER IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE TREND SUSTAINS ITSELF THRU THE NEXT FEW RUNS. AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE NOVEMBER ARE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. JUST A BIT FURTHER OUT...RIDGING LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOME BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A WSW FLOW INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...GOOD SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AT H500 AND THE LATEST PNA AND EPO INDEXES THROUGH THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. AS THE PNA LOOKS TO STAY NEGATIVE AND THE EPO GOES FROM STRONGLY POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL BY THE LAST WEEK OF NOV AS PER CDC VALUES. SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1032 AM CST FRI NOV 17 2006 .UPDATE... FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE REDUCED AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE TO AGREE MORE WITH OBSERVE RED VALUES AND LATEST RUC MODEL. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. && .DISCUSSION... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 37 57 33 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 66 37 60 35 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 69 37 60 35 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 65 31 57 29 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 62 31 55 28 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 62 35 54 29 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 66 36 57 33 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 63 32 54 30 / 0 0 10 10 F10 66 36 57 33 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 68 41 65 39 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....18 ok