AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 841 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE... .AVIATION... STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG ACTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. STORMS HAVE PASSED SBN...BUT SHOULD REACH FWA LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AGAIN LATER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90 JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT 4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...SKIPPER SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 255 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENING W/OUTBREAK OF SVR STORMS EXPECTED... .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90 JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT 4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN THROUGH IA AND BACK INTO NE/KS WHILE A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED UP NORTH OF BOTH SBN AND FWA. MAIN FEATURE TO KEY ON EXPECTED TO BE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN IA WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP INTO NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS TO INTERACT WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LAID OUT OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TO TRIGGER TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL INTRODUCE AS VCTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING PREVAILING -SHRA TO BOTH SITES...BUT STILL LEAVING CIGS VFR. EXACT TIMING STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL BRING IN A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO INDICATE TREND EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDL MCS CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THIS TO UNFOLD AND LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...LOGSDON SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 815 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 .MESO UPDATE... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM DODGE CITY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OR IF MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING TWO MESOSCALE COMPLEXES. ONE OF THE COMPLEXES IS MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF CONCORDIA WHILE THE OTHER COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM DODGE CITY TO ST. JOHN. LATEST PROFILERS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KTS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH EXCEPT AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS DODGE CITY WHERE THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE SURFACE OBS. THIS IS VERY CONCERNING ESPECIALLY WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WHOLE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE DODGE CITY AREA COULD END UP DEVELOPING INTO A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE A STRONG COLD POOL/MCV. WITH THAT IN MIND...THIS MCS COULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 04Z AND PUSH EAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. THOSE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THIS COMPLEX COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY NIGHT. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE COMPLEX OF STORMS EAST OF CONCORDIA IS ALSO TENDING TO PROPAGATE SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG IT...BUT I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD WITH THIS COMPLEX. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006/ DISCUSSION... CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THAN PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN THU. THIS EVE AND TNGT: INSTABILITY (SBCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG) AND UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG SURFACE TROF AND REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DDC TO HYS TO CNK. SB CIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RUC SHOWING FN-CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERTED V SOUNDING WITH DRIER LAYERS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE GRID/ZONES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE SE TOWARDS ICT AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREA FROM ICT NORTHWESTWARD FOR THIS CHANCE. THU: EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS... (ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/SERN KS) AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FORMS MORE OF AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AS THIS MCV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO SRN KS. LOTS OF INSTABILITY AGAIN WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THU EVE/NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS 850H BOUNDARY REMAINS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES. FRI: COULD SEE SOME MORNING REMNANTS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN SRN KS (FURTHER SOUTH THAN THU MORNINGS). WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME HOURS. SO WILL REDUCE POPS FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CEN KS. SAT-SUN: THIS IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR SAT INTO SUN. UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES GO MORE NW WITH TIME...WITH GFS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NERN KS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF SAT WITH THIS IN MIND...AS EVEN THE ECMWF ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT IN THE LOW LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN PLACE FOR SUN AS GFS ADVERTISES THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA DROPPING ACROSS CEN KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A LOW POP. MON-WED: NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STARTS...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES ACTUALLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST SOME. THIS WILL ALLOW PROBABLY ALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKERS FOR TUE INTO WED AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS. MED RANGE GFS HINTS AT THIS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NE/NRN KS. WILL NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET...AS MCS TYPE SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. KETCHAM && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 84 67 86 / 60 70 40 20 HUTCHINSON 70 84 65 86 / 80 70 40 20 NEWTON 71 84 67 86 / 60 70 40 20 ELDORADO 72 85 67 85 / 50 70 40 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 72 86 68 86 / 40 60 50 30 RUSSELL 66 82 64 86 / 90 50 20 10 GREAT BEND 69 83 64 86 / 80 50 30 10 SALINA 70 84 66 85 / 90 70 30 10 MCPHERSON 70 84 66 86 / 80 70 30 20 COFFEYVILLE 71 87 66 83 / 20 60 60 40 CHANUTE 70 85 66 84 / 20 70 60 30 IOLA 70 85 66 83 / 20 70 50 30 PARSONS-KPPF 71 87 66 83 / 20 60 60 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 311 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEAN UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. ONE...WHICH COULD BE LEFT OVER CIRCULATION FROM LAST NIGHT...IS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THERE IS ANOTHER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE STRONGEST ONE LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...BASED ON SATELLITE MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DETAILS WELL. BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSE WITH THE GFS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT ESPECIALLY IS DOING WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE DRY WITH THE GFS CLOSER. AT LOW LEVELS...THE UKMET DID BEST ON THE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY THE GFS. MODELS WERE CLOSE ON THE WIND FIELD WITH THE GFS/WRF-NAM ABOUT THE SAME. WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF NORTHERN JET STAYS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS...THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. CONVECTION HAS STARTED FROM THE WEST BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW. AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL GET SOMETHING WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF SEEING THE MOST. WILL LAY OUT THE POPS THAT WAY. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STAYS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOWING ONGOING AND ACTUALLY EXPANDING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. JUST GOING BY THE RUC13 WOULD SAY THERE IS MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON THIS DAY THAN TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...PROBABLY FROM NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SYSTEM...WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEN THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WILL BE MENTIONED ALL DAY. WITH CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS...WILL TEND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECASET AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT IS MATCHING NEW GUIDANCE VERY WELL...AND DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING AT ALL. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT COMES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COLORADO COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE... AT LEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE SOME SUN...AND WILL WARM IT UP A LITTLE ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. SATURDAY...BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE LIFT THROUGH THE MID LEVELS INCREASING...BEGINNING RIGHT AT 12Z...THROUGH THE DAY. IT GIVES ME SOME CONFIDENCE THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS BUT ALL NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE WRF-NAM. WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF PRECIPITATION...AND PROBABLY FOR THE DAY. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXES. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS. SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD. HOWEVER...ESSENTIALLY WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD AND LEAVE AREA OPEN TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. ALSO BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE IFFY IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BUT AM LEARY OF THIS FLOW PATTERN. DURING THAT TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN PORTION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE END WHERE THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 320 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THAN PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN THU. THIS EVE AND TNGT: INSTABILITY (SBCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG) AND UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG SURFACE TROF AND REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DDC TO HYS TO CNK. SB CIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RUC SHOWING FN-CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERTED V SOUNDING WITH DRIER LAYERS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE GRID/ZONES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND PROPAGATING SLOWLY TO THE SE TOWARDS ICT AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AREA FROM ICT NORTHWESTWARD FOR THIS CHANCE. THU: EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS... (ESPECIALLY OVER SRN/SERN KS) AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FORMS MORE OF AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO. SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AS THIS MCV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO SRN KS. LOTS OF INSTABILITY AGAIN WILL POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THU EVE/NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS 850H BOUNDARY REMAINS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES. FRI: COULD SEE SOME MORNING REMNANTS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN SRN KS (FURTHER SOUTH THAN THU MORNINGS). WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME HOURS. SO WILL REDUCE POPS FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CEN KS. SAT-SUN: THIS IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR SAT INTO SUN. UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES GO MORE NW WITH TIME...WITH GFS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA BY SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NERN KS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF SAT WITH THIS IN MIND...AS EVEN THE ECMWF ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT IN THE LOW LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN PLACE FOR SUN AS GFS ADVERTISES THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA DROPPING ACROSS CEN KS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARRANT A LOW POP. MON-WED: NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STARTS...WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES ACTUALLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST SOME. THIS WILL ALLOW PROBABLY ALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER MAKERS FOR TUE INTO WED AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS. MED RANGE GFS HINTS AT THIS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NE/NRN KS. WILL NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET...AS MCS TYPE SYSTEMS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 84 67 86 / 60 70 40 20 HUTCHINSON 70 84 65 86 / 80 70 40 20 NEWTON 71 84 67 86 / 60 70 40 20 ELDORADO 72 85 67 85 / 50 70 40 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 72 86 68 86 / 40 60 50 30 RUSSELL 66 82 64 86 / 90 50 20 10 GREAT BEND 69 83 64 86 / 80 50 30 10 SALINA 70 84 66 85 / 90 70 30 10 MCPHERSON 70 84 66 86 / 80 70 30 20 COFFEYVILLE 71 87 66 83 / 20 60 60 40 CHANUTE 70 85 66 84 / 20 70 60 30 IOLA 70 85 66 83 / 20 70 50 30 PARSONS-KPPF 71 87 66 83 / 20 60 60 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMIT 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 910 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE LMK CWA AS OF 9 PM EDT. WE DID HAVE A COUPLE LONE SHOWERS POP UP JUST NE OF BWG AROUND 7 PM...BUT THOSE HAVE LONG SINCE DIMINISHED. AIRMASS IS VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...THOUGH A DECENT CAP AROUND 850MB SEEN IN ACARS DATA EARLIER TODAY HELPED HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD STILL SEE AN ISLTD -SHRA THIS EVENING...BUT CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE DRY FCST. ORGANIZED SEVERE WX OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES CONTAINED WITHIN BELT OF FASTER WESTERLIES...AND THOSE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE E. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/SKY/DEWPOINT GRIDS. UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM EDT. CS && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006) SHORT TERM... SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. FARTHER NORTH...A TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TOMORROW. SEVERAL MINOR FEATURES MOVING EAST ALONG GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL STRETCH FROM IOWA THROUGH MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL FARTHER MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. OUR AREA FIRMLY WITHIN PERHAPS THE MOST HUMID AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKER. ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AFTER ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION...SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS A STICKY NIGHT WITH PROBABLY OUR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES YET THIS YEAR. TOMORROW...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. AGAIN CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...WHERE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND A WEAKER CAP WILL BE LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTH...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. JSD LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS EXIST IN EXTENDED PD OF FCST. FIRST...IS FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWD ACRS OUR FCST AREA ON FRI AND ATTENDANT PRECIP. SECOND...IS INTERACTION OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD OH VLY. SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRI SYS. EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCS'S TO BE IN PROGRESS TO OUR N OR NW...AND AT LEAST SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PROPAGATE OR DVLP INTO S-CNTRL IN LATE THU NGT/FRI MRNG. S-CNTRL KY SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DRY THU NGT/FRI MRNG. QUESTION EVOLVES AROUND HOW MRNG MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N WILL COMPLICATE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION AND CNVCTV OUTFLOW BNDRIES...AND HOW MRNG CNVCTN WILL PROPAGATE AND AFFECT AFTN REDVLPMT. 12Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N DURG DAY ALLOWING SCT AFTN TSTMS TO DVLP OVR OUR FCST AREA APPARENTLY FM OUTFLOW FROM THE N...BEFORE A LINE OF TSTMS DVLPS AND SWEEPS ACRS OUR AREA LATE FRI/FRI NGT. GFS BASICALLY SAGS MOISTURE AND CNVCTN ACRS AREA DURG DAY. EITHER WAY...FRI SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE CNVCTV DAY ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA...AND ACRS SRN SECTIONS EITHER FRI AFTN OR NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES FM 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND K VALUES FM 35-40 SUGGEST VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTMS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOT FCST TO BE TOO STEEP...BUT STEEP ENOUGH COMBINED WITH MDT-TO-STG LOW-LVL INSTABILITY FOR SOME STG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SAG SEWD FRI NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP PSBL SAT OVER ERN/SERN SECTIONS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR EWD DUE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SEWD INTO OH VLY SUN/MON. EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK WWD...IS NOT SO WITH 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF MODELS (AND HINTED AT BY 72 HR UKMET) SHOW UPSTREAM SYS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN LATEST GFS. THUS...WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVER ERN/SERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA ON MON AS DIGGING TROF PULLS MOISTURE BACK TOWARD BLUEGRASS REGION. BY TUE/WED...EFFECTS OF THIS SYS SHOULD BE TO OUR E ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGHOUT AREA. CURRENT EXTENDED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS WERE TWEEKED SOME BUT MAJOR CHANGES REALLY NOT NEEDED. EXPECT COOLEST TEMPS OVER ERN AREAS SUN/MON ESPCLY IF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY. TWF && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 315 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM... SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. FARTHER NORTH...A TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TOMORROW. SEVERAL MINOR FEATURES MOVING EAST ALONG GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ARE PRODUCING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL STRETCH FROM IOWA THROUGH MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL FARTHER MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. OUR AREA FIRMLY WITHIN PERHAPS THE MOST HUMID AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOTH NAM AND RUC SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS WEAKER. ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AFTER ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION...SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS A STICKY NIGHT WITH PROBABLY OUR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES YET THIS YEAR. TOMORROW...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN. AGAIN CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...WHERE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND A WEAKER CAP WILL BE LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTH...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. JSD .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS EXIST IN EXTENDED PD OF FCST. FIRST...IS FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWD ACRS OUR FCST AREA ON FRI AND ATTENDANT PRECIP. SECOND...IS INTERACTION OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD OH VLY. SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRI SYS. EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCS'S TO BE IN PROGRESS TO OUR N OR NW...AND AT LEAST SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PROPAGATE OR DVLP INTO S-CNTRL IN LATE THU NGT/FRI MRNG. S-CNTRL KY SHOULD BE CAPPED AND DRY THU NGT/FRI MRNG. QUESTION EVOLVES AROUND HOW MRNG MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N WILL COMPLICATE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION AND CNVCTV OUTFLOW BNDRIES...AND HOW MRNG CNVCTN WILL PROPAGATE AND AFFECT AFTN REDVLPMT. 12Z NAM KEEPS MUCH OF MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR N DURG DAY ALLOWING SCT AFTN TSTMS TO DVLP OVR OUR FCST AREA APPARENTLY FM OUTFLOW FROM THE N...BEFORE A LINE OF TSTMS DVLPS AND SWEEPS ACRS OUR AREA LATE FRI/FRI NGT. GFS BASICALLY SAGS MOISTURE AND CNVCTN ACRS AREA DURG DAY. EITHER WAY...FRI SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE CNVCTV DAY ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA...AND ACRS SRN SECTIONS EITHER FRI AFTN OR NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES FM 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND K VALUES FM 35-40 SUGGEST VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTMS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOT FCST TO BE TOO STEEP...BUT STEEP ENOUGH COMBINED WITH MDT-TO-STG LOW-LVL INSTABILITY FOR SOME STG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SAG SEWD FRI NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP PSBL SAT OVER ERN/SERN SECTIONS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR EWD DUE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIG SEWD INTO OH VLY SUN/MON. EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK WWD...IS NOT SO WITH 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF MODELS (AND HINTED AT BY 72 HR UKMET) SHOW UPSTREAM SYS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN LATEST GFS. THUS...WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF PRECIP OVER ERN/SERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA ON MON AS DIGGING TROF PULLS MOISTURE BACK TOWARD BLUEGRASS REGION. BY TUE/WED...EFFECTS OF THIS SYS SHOULD BE TO OUR E ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGHOUT AREA. CURRENT EXTENDED MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS WERE TWEEKED SOME BUT MAJOR CHANGES REALLY NOT NEEDED. EXPECT COOLEST TEMPS OVER ERN AREAS SUN/MON ESPCLY IF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY. TWF && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1043 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT ABOVE THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. ON GOING CONVECTION IS FOUND TO THE NORTH OVER OHIO...JUST BRUSHING PAST THE CWA. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEND OUT ITS OWN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MIX WITH OUR PRE- EXISTING BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE IN A HOLDING PATTERN...WAITING FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL PROBABLY HINDER THE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC FEATURES TO KEY ON...AM INCLINED TO RUN WITH THE CURRENT POPS AND UPDATE THE TEXT ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING WORDING AND FOG. WILL FINE TUNE THE GRIDS FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATES TO TEXT PRODUCTS...IFPS GRIDS...AND WEB GRAPHICS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THE CURRENT HWO IS WELL WRITTEN AND ADDRESSES THE SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT QUITE WELL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 450 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND TRAVERSING IMPULSES AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED STORMS TODAY. TRIGGERS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY MAKE UP FOR THIS ONCE AGAIN. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN MORE FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH BOUNDARY HELD NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH A 20 INSTABILITY POP AND HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 90. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SAG SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. BEEFED POPS UP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING ALONG BETTER MID-LEVEL TRIGGERING. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTACT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 1143 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DROP SE ACROSS CENTRAL KY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF COUNTIES...AND VIS ALREADY AT 4SM AT SME...PATCHY FOG OR EVEN AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VALLEYS SHOULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED. MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY NOW OVER NORTHERN KY. INCREASING HEIGHTS ON WED...SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO A MIN...WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT OR EXCEEDING 90 IN ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. 341 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE HAVE BEEN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. RUC SHOWS A WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH ERN KY ATTM. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...TAKING THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT. RUC AND WRF MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. I WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. INSTABILITY DECREASES OVER OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINS RATHER HIGH OVER ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FUEL SOME CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS COULD MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY GOOD TRIGGER FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...SO GENERALLY DID NOT FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE. WRF SEEMS TO BE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF AROUND -7 ARE LIKELY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S...SO WHEN THESE TEMPS ARE REACHED AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY...WITH THE H5 HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WITH THE INSTABILITY...KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MIXED DOWN 850 MB TEMPS...AND USED MOS FOR HIGH TEMP FORECAST. USED A COMBINATION OF MOS GUIDANCE AND KNOWN LOCAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS FOR MINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... GENERALLY USED DGEX DATA FOR A START WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WAS ALSO CLOSE TO THE HPC PROGS. GFS STILL CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. GENERALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP PUSH A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY AND WEAK VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. AGAIN USED MIXED DOWN 850 MB TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS...AND USED DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER INFORMATION TO DERIVE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GREIF ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF STATES. A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE A MOVE VIGOROUS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH 80-100KT FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM A TRIPLE POINT IN UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS WHERE IT STALLS. A TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THE RESIDUAL CIRRUS AND DIURNAL HIGH BASE CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE VIGOROUS MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR DETROIT. WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE MCV EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM (WRF-NMM) ALLOWS THIS ENERGY TO BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN A WEAKNESS IN THE 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN THE TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...RAISING DEW POINTS TO NEAR THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS IN TURN COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MCS TRACK TO DEVELOP A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON WEAKNESS IN MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. BELIEVE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORCE STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DISRUPTING TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH. SEVERAL DEGREE C OF WARMING IS EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS AS A RESULT OF MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WHEN COMBINED WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 100F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (WBCSPSLWX). && .AVIATION... PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT TO LAY A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST LIKELY THE PREFERRED MOTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE... EXPECTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CHANNEL UP THE BAY OVERNIGHT ONCE THE BAY BREEZE BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY REACH 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...GIVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LAND AND LOWER 80S FORECAST OVER THE WATERS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MARGINAL (SYNOPTIC GRADIENT) FOR A BAY BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AT PREDICTED VALUES. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WANING TO A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...ROGOWSKI md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .UPDATE... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRG SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SVR WX ACRS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FA MOVING QUICKLY ACRS ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT IS STILL JUST W OF ERY/ISQ...BUT ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION S OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC RDGING BEHIND THE FNT HAVE ENDED THE SHRA OVER THE ENTIRE CWA EVEN TO THE E OF THE SFC FNT. SECOND COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA IS NOW MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCT CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BNDRY...AND CNDN THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS SOME SCT -SHRA TO THE NW OF YQT. UPDATED TO END SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FA THIS EVNG AND TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHRA CHCS LATER TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FNT. 00Z RUC INDICATES THIS BNDRY WL ARRIVE OVER THE NW ZNS ARND 09Z...SO ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA CLOSER TO THE FROPA GIVEN RATHER UNEVENTFUL WX OBSVD AHEAD OF THE FNT THIS EVNG. KC .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 428 PM)... MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND PCPN POTENTIAL THRU THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NRN BRANCH FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SHARPLY S INTO NRN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/KBIS INDICATED 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 50/70M RESPECTIVELY. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE... DEEP LAYER FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SPREADING OVERTOP SFC TROF HAS LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN NE MN EARLY THIS AFTN. STORMS HAVE SINCE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI/CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. MLCAPE AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS. STRONGEST FORCING IS SPREADING OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO WHICH MAY KEEP SVR THREAT A BIT MORE LIMITED THIS EVENING ACROSS UPPER MI. SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WHICH THE MODELS SHOW EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA BTWN 03-05Z. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC TROF. MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA FOLLOW ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA UNDER SHORTWAVE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING S THRU NRN MANITOBA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI VERY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. A FEW SHRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SRN MANITOBA TO SRN HUDSON BAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW CHC POPS ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. HAVE CONFINED ISOLD TS MENTION TO THE FAR S AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED TIME TO DEVELOP INSTABLITY BEFORE FROPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY SUNNY. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS CHILLY WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE N HALF OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN (12Z CHURCHILL RAOB SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -4C). CORE OF COLD AIR WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER MI WILL STILL GET CLIPPED WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS BRIEFLY THU/THU NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COOL AIR...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. GFS COOP MOS HAS MINS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS THU NIGHT (AS LOW AS 36 AT CHAMPION). THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5 INCHES). DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR W THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE AFTN CONVECTION AS GFS PUSHES MLCAPES TO 600-800J/KG. NAM ONLY SHOWS UPWARDS OF ABOUT 200J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW. ON SAT...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ESE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND SUGGESTS POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE WRN FCST AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN SLOWER ECWMF/CANADIAN TIMING. SUN THRU WED...00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. NW/WNW FLOW WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY... FIRST PCPN CONCERN IS ON SUN AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW PATTERNS THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING GENERALLY LOW COVERAGE SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. HAVE THUS EXPANDED GOING CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL/SW UPPER MI ACROSS ALL BUT THE ERN FCST AREA FOR SUN AFTN/EVENING (ERN FCST AREA SHOULD SEE LESS INSTABILITY WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE). IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A DRY DAY ON MON. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SHORTWAVE TIMING SEEN IN YESTERDAYS 00Z/06Z RUNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS DECREASED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AS ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER AS IT DROPS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TO NEAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED. TIMING-WISE...EXPECT FRONT TO CROSS THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT THE BEST TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...WILL SPREAD LOW CHC POPS FROM W TO E...STARTING IN THE EVENING W AND REACHING THE E BY TUE MORNING. WILL LINGER CHC THRU TUE AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL/SE IN THE EVENT FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS... WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION NOW FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA INSTEAD OF PERSISTENT TROFFING. WILL NEED TO REASSESS THIS SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CONTINUITY IN LATER SHIFTS. ROLFSON && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1015 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .UPDATE...INITIAL FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE AREA OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTION WHICH RAVAGED SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO NRN INDIANA AND NRN OHIO...AND IS STILL PACKING QUITE A PUNCH. NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IMPACTED PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS MOVED NE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ONLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WHITEFISH BAY AREA IN ERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE REST OF THE CWA IS NOW DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. UPSTREAM RADARS OVER WISCONSIN SHOW NO RETURNS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBS OVER SW ONTARIO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VCNTY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW THRU SW ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE VIA A SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE ERN UPR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WITH IT. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT END THIS CHANCE BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL ALLOW THE SCA FOR WHITEFISH BAY...ST MARYS RIVER AND MOST OF THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS TO EXPIRE AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 DISCUSSION...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. CLOSER TO HOME...WE FINALLY SAW A BIT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CU QUICKLY FOLLOWED AS DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN WI WAS LIFTING ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS STILL IN FAR SW LOWER...SEPARATING MID 60S DEW POINTS AND SE WINDS TO THE NE AND NEAR 70 DEWS/SW WINDS TO THE SW. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING IWD...WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NOW IN NORTHERN WI. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. TONIGHT...STILL A FEW AVENUES FOR POTENTIAL SVR...THOUGH NONE ARE CERTAIN. WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WI/LAKE MI CONVECTION. WELL-DEFINED SWIRL SEEN IN RADAR ECHOES IN WI...INDICATING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX ABOUT WHERE IT SHOULD BE. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING (500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 30KT TO 50KT BY 03Z...EARLIER IN EASTERN UPPER MI). SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION TO INCREASE...PERHAPS COMPENSATING FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SPECIAL 18Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM 900MB TO 700MB THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT MUCH MORE HEATING. IF WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION GETS GOING...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE MAIN THREAT...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RATHER HIGH FOR HAIL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LACK OF AN E-W ORIENTED WIND SHIFT LINE ALSO WORKS AGAINST ORGANIZED SVR AND ANY POTENTIAL TOR THREAT. MY BIGGER CONCERN IS NOW TO THE NW. NAM/RUC BOTH BRING MUCAPES TO 1.5-2K J/KG (LIFTING FROM 925MB) IN A NARROW BAND JUST AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A WIND THREAT AND MAYBE HAIL....DESPITE BECOMING NON-SURFACE BASED AS IT HITS THE MARINE LAYER EAST OF ESC. THIS SVR THREAT DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WANES AND COLD FRONT GETS FARTHER FROM PARENT DYNAMIC FORCING (SHORTWAVE GRAZING BY LAKE SUPERIOR). WILL STILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. OTHERWISE...EASTERN UPPER MI (AND EVENTUALLY NW LOWER) WILL DRY/ CLEAR OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S FAR NW TO MID 60S FAR SE. ZOLTOWSKI LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER IN THE BEGINNING THAN THE GFS. LOOKING AT OTHER MODELS THE GFS LOOKS MORE ON THAN THE NAM. HAVE BLENDED THE FORECAST, BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS A BIT. THURSDAY...THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB, BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW. SO HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. THEN WITH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON, THE COLUMN DRIES OUT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT THE 850 MB LEVEL, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY TO AROUND 25%. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS GETTING PRETTY FLAT AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AROUND 30% AND THE MOISTURE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL AROUND 50% WOULD EXPECT THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE, BUT WITH IT IN MINNESOTA BY 12Z, THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST. EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE PRETTY CLOSE. THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE, HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MEAN AND GEM MEAN. READING THE HPC DISCUSSION AND LOOKING AT THE FRONTAL POSITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT IS A PRETTY GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO. THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST VERIFYING THOUGH IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE, AS STATED BEFORE, ALL OVER THE PLACE. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE THIS...SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SFC LOW IN NE IOWA WHICH SINKS SE. MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE REGION DRY. TUESDAY, THE GREAT LAKES GET INTO A SANDWICH PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH W UPPER BY 12Z AND A SECOND SFC LOW MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SW ONTARIO SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH N LOWER BUT STALLS OUT ON A KMKG TO KDET LINE, SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LUTZ && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 428 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND PCPN POTENTIAL THRU THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. NRN BRANCH FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SHARPLY S INTO NRN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS FROM KINL/KBIS INDICATED 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 50/70M RESPECTIVELY. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE... DEEP LAYER FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SPREADING OVERTOP SFC TROF HAS LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN NE MN EARLY THIS AFTN. STORMS HAVE SINCE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI/CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. MLCAPE AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50KT HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS. STRONGEST FORCING IS SPREADING OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ADJACENT ONTARIO WHICH MAY KEEP SVR THREAT A BIT MORE LIMITED THIS EVENING ACROSS UPPER MI. SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WHICH THE MODELS SHOW EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA BTWN 03-05Z. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC TROF. MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA FOLLOW ACROSS THE NRN FCST AREA UNDER SHORTWAVE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING S THRU NRN MANITOBA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI VERY LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. A FEW SHRA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SRN MANITOBA TO SRN HUDSON BAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW CHC POPS ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. HAVE CONFINED ISOLD TS MENTION TO THE FAR S AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED TIME TO DEVELOP INSTABLITY BEFORE FROPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEHIND FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY SUNNY. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS CHILLY WITH SFC OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE N HALF OF MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN (12Z CHURCHILL RAOB SHOWED 850MB TEMP OF -4C). CORE OF COLD AIR WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA...BUT UPPER MI WILL STILL GET CLIPPED WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS BRIEFLY THU/THU NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE COOL AIR...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. GFS COOP MOS HAS MINS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS THU NIGHT (AS LOW AS 36 AT CHAMPION). THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5 INCHES). DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR W THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE AFTN CONVECTION AS GFS PUSHES MLCAPES TO 600-800J/KG. NAM ONLY SHOWS UPWARDS OF ABOUT 200J/KG. WITH LACK OF SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW. ON SAT...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ESE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH SHORTWAVE AND SUGGESTS POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE WRN FCST AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN SLOWER ECWMF/CANADIAN TIMING. SUN THRU WED...00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. NW/WNW FLOW WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY... FIRST PCPN CONCERN IS ON SUN AS ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW PATTERNS THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING GENERALLY LOW COVERAGE SCT CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. HAVE THUS EXPANDED GOING CHC POPS FOR SCNTRL/SW UPPER MI ACROSS ALL BUT THE ERN FCST AREA FOR SUN AFTN/EVENING (ERN FCST AREA SHOULD SEE LESS INSTABILITY WITH MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE). IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A DRY DAY ON MON. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SHORTWAVE TIMING SEEN IN YESTERDAYS 00Z/06Z RUNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS DECREASED WITH TODAYS 00Z RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AS ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER AS IT DROPS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW TO NEAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED. TIMING-WISE...EXPECT FRONT TO CROSS THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT THE BEST TIME OF DAY FOR CONVECTION...WILL SPREAD LOW CHC POPS FROM W TO E...STARTING IN THE EVENING W AND REACHING THE E BY TUE MORNING. WILL LINGER CHC THRU TUE AFTN OVER THE SCNTRL/SE IN THE EVENT FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS... WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION NOW FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA INSTEAD OF PERSISTENT TROFFING. WILL NEED TO REASSESS THIS SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CONTINUITY IN LATER SHIFTS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 332 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. CLOSER TO HOME...WE FINALLY SAW A BIT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CU QUICKLY FOLLOWED AS DEW POINTS ROSE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN WI WAS LIFTING ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT WAS STILL IN FAR SW LOWER...SEPARATING MID 60S DEW POINTS AND SE WINDS TO THE NE AND NEAR 70 DEWS/SW WINDS TO THE SW. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING IWD...WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NOW IN NORTHERN WI. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. TONIGHT...STILL A FEW AVENUES FOR POTENTIAL SVR...THOUGH NONE ARE CERTAIN. WILL CERTAINLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WI/LAKE MI CONVECTION. WELL-DEFINED SWIRL SEEN IN RADAR ECHOES IN WI...INDICATING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX ABOUT WHERE IT SHOULD BE. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING (500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM 30KT TO 50KT BY 03Z...EARLIER IN EASTERN UPPER MI). SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION TO INCREASE...PERHAPS COMPENSATING FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SPECIAL 18Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM 900MB TO 700MB THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT MUCH MORE HEATING. IF WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION GETS GOING...HIGH WINDS WOULD BE MAIN THREAT...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RATHER HIGH FOR HAIL GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LACK OF AN E-W ORIENTED WIND SHIFT LINE ALSO WORKS AGAINST ORGANIZED SVR AND ANY POTENTIAL TOR THREAT. MY BIGGER CONCERN IS NOW TO THE NW. NAM/RUC BOTH BRING MUCAPES TO 1.5-2K J/KG (LIFTING FROM 925MB) IN A NARROW BAND JUST AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTION WITH A WIND THREAT AND MAYBE HAIL....DESPITE BECOMING NON-SURFACE BASED AS IT HITS THE MARINE LAYER EAST OF ESC. THIS SVR THREAT DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY WANES AND COLD FRONT GETS FARTHER FROM PARENT DYNAMIC FORCING (SHORTWAVE GRAZING BY LAKE SUPERIOR). WILL STILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. OTHERWISE...EASTERN UPPER MI (AND EVENTUALLY NW LOWER) WILL DRY/ CLEAR OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S FAR NW TO MID 60S FAR SE. ZOLTOWSKI LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER IN THE BEGINNING THAN THE GFS. LOOKING AT OTHER MODELS THE GFS LOOKS MORE ON THAN THE NAM. HAVE BLENDED THE FORECAST, BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS A BIT. THURSDAY...THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE MOISTURE AT 850 MB, BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW. SO HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORNING AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. THEN WITH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON, THE COLUMN DRIES OUT. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT THE 850 MB LEVEL, THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY TO AROUND 25%. THE 500 MB TROUGH IS GETTING PRETTY FLAT AND THE SFC HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AROUND 30% AND THE MOISTURE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL AROUND 50% WOULD EXPECT THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE, BUT WITH IT IN MINNESOTA BY 12Z, THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST. EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE PRETTY CLOSE. THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE SCATTERED ALL OVER THE PLACE, HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MEAN AND GEM MEAN. READING THE HPC DISCUSSION AND LOOKING AT THE FRONTAL POSITIONS LOOKS LIKE IT IS A PRETTY GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO. THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST VERIFYING THOUGH IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE, AS STATED BEFORE, ALL OVER THE PLACE. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE THIS...SUNDAY, THE SFC HIGH REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SFC LOW IN NE IOWA WHICH SINKS SE. MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE REGION DRY. TUESDAY, THE GREAT LAKES GET INTO A SANDWICH PLAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH W UPPER BY 12Z AND A SECOND SFC LOW MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SW ONTARIO SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH N LOWER BUT STALLS OUT ON A KMKG TO KDET LINE, SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LUTZ && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1245 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... STRENGTH OF CONVECTION FOR AFTN IS MAIN CONCERN WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE STRONG SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY OVR SE MANITOBA AND NW MN. H3 JET OF 100KT IS PUSHING INTO N MN. BOTH THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY EWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY SFC TROUGH OVR W MN. DLH HAS ISSUED SOME WARNINGS FOR ACTIVITY OVR MN ARROWHEAD. NOT SURE IF CONVECTION OVR UPR MI LATER TODAY WILL COME DIRECTLY FM THE NE MN ACTIVITY OR IF THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVR NW WI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT (TEND TO FAVOR THIS SECOND SCENARIO ATTM). MODIFIED SOUNDINGS (INL/MPX/GRB) AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALL POINTED TO MLCAPES BY LATE AFTN OVR W UPR MI BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE NEG AREA (T/TD OF 84/58). PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ONLY CONCERN EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS LACK OF MOISTURE IN H9-H5 LAYER...HOWEVER INL SOUNDING SHOWED A BIT MORE MOISTURE CLOSER TO APPROACHING WAVE AND THIS SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT AS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVR NE MN. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO UPR MI...EXPECT THEM TO PROCEED EWD ACROSS CWA. INSTABILITY MAY BE LESS OVR E CWA WITH LINGERING UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE (SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE CAPPING) DUE TO EARLIER MORNING MCS THAT PASSED OVR WI/LWR MI. HAVE INCREASED CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT DUE TO 0-6KM LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50KT AND SUFFICIEINT INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT REGION. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREAT. FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12.5KFT AND WBZERO HEIGHTS AT 11.5KFT ARE ALS FAVORABLE FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED INITIALLY. UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS AND ZFPMQT (HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS LATE AFTN INTO EVENING) ARE ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT)... EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY DIE OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING ISOLD SHRA OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI THU MORNING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS SSE INTO ONTARIO. TIMING OF FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE MAY BE AN ISOLD TSRA OVER THE FAR S WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR EITHER LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND SBCAPES WILL RISE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA ALONG FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH ONLY MENTION OF TSRA OVER THE FAR S. SFC HIGH AND COOL/DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING UNDER 0.5 INCHES PER NAM FCST) WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT. GOING FCST OF LWR 40S MINS STILL LOOKS GOOD UNDER EXPECTED EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS MAY EVEN DROP A BIT MORE FOR FAVORED COOL SPOTS BASED ON GFS COOP MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE UPPER LAKES. GFS STILL TRIES TO BRING MLCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE WI BDR WITH MIMINAL/NO CIN BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHRA AT THIS POINT. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1045 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .UPDATED... THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AT 1045 AM. FOR THAT I UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO HAVE LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE MORNING FROM I-96 NORTH FOR THOSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MCS OVER SRN WI AND NRN IL IS DISSIPATING AS OF 1045 AM THIS MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS AND DEEP STABLE LAYER AS SEEN ON TAMDAR...AROUND 880 MB. THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE IOWA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. BY THEN THE CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE. AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. 12Z RUC40 SOUNDING SUGGEST EQ LEVELS NEAR 40000 FT. CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG... AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL. THE SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS OVER 400 J/KG AT 14Z IN THE -10 TO -30C RANGE. SFC BASED LI VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE. 3 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 200 RANGE SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR ROUTE 10 IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GOING EAST OF US-131 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS WE WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST LARGELY AS IS. .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 541 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN QUITE SOME TIME. BOOKBINDER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 325 PM... FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MJ UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. WEBBER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STOFLET && 915 AM... WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AS ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN KS IS TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A SHEARED VORTICITY PATTERN SUPPORTING IT. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NE IS SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH NEW CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG AND CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS FOR MORE SUN ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 915 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION... WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AS ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN KS IS TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A SHEARED VORTICITY PATTERN SUPPORTING IT. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NE IS SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH NEW CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG AND CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS FOR MORE SUN ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 417 AM... CHALLENGING FORECAST AS UPPER PATTERN IS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONE WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE THIS MORNING MOVING INTO IOWA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EVENING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SURFACE FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SO THAT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THIS POINT...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH GFS FOCUSING CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS UPPER SHORT WAVE LESS OF A COHERENT FEATURE AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PRODUCES MULTIPLE VORT MAXES IN THE FLOW. NAM/WRF MODEL KEEPS SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MCS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND BUMP UP POPS INTO A LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PHASES WITH STRONGER UPPER WAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA...EXPECT MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. STILL WITH FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MAKE A QUICK RECOVERY. AFTER TODAY...READINGS SHOULD HEAD BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AS FRONT SAGS THROUGH AREA. CONVERGENCE ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT 850 WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS ALOFT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MID LEVEL COOLING STARTING TODAY WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. IF A STRONGER WAVE OCCURS AS NAM/WRF SHOWS...WILL BE CONCERNED FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE STORMS BUT ALSO HEAVY RAIN AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 355 PM CDT TUE... NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN IL SNAKES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MO TO EAST CENTRAL NE BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO NORTHEAST MO WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY. A VORTICITY LOBE IS GUIDING THIS PRECIPITATION. GFS/NAM-WRF/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL PICK UP ON CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SIGNALS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES COME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN A PSEUDO ZONAL TYPE FLOW. TIMING IS ONE ISSUE WHILE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION IS THE OTHER. 18Z NAM-WRF AND 20Z RUC PROG A VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL CO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FRONT RANGE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE LINKED TO THIS FEATURE. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION SPREAD/FORM EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE KS/NE PORTION OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACT AS A CAP FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD OUTFLOWS FROM THE IA/NE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO TOMORROW WHILE THE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL ACT TO COOL THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE IDEA LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY. 0-6KM SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER. THINK LOWER 90S PRETTY REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. FIRST DAY OF NAM-WRF SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHILE THE ABNORMALLY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH PLAGUED THE PREVIOUS NAM HAVE BEEN CORRECTED....YEA. MJ FOR THURSDAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT 12Z. THE NAM/WRF LIFTS THE TROF NE WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE BASE OF THE TROF FURTHER SOUTH...PREFER THE NAM/WRF SOLUTION WITH STRONGER WINDS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JETSTREAM...WHILE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ERN KS/NWRN MO DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP FIRE CONVECTION ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT...HOWEVER LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ALONG FRONT MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. WEBBER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POLAR VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS A JET MAX TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. ON THE GFS...THE FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK GENERATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SLOWER DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTH. FOR EITHER SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SHOW ME STATE. SO I HAVE INTRODUCE 40 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH LESSER CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES JET MAX PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUT KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERATE A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL OVER THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH BASED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...SO FOR SATURDAY I HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI COUNTIES...CARRYING THE CHANCE INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NEBULOUS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW IS SELDOM DRY THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS TOO TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS...AND INCLUDING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST SEEMED TO BE TOO MUCH OF A BROADBRUSH AT THIS TIME. KOCH FIRST DAY OF NAM-WRF SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS WELL AS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 532. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE. DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING... TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NW OHIO THROUGH SE OHIO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO WITH MORE FIRING BACK WEST TOWARD CHICAGO. HAVE LEFT ALL TERMINALS DRY AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN NORTH OF SITES THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. WITH MOIST AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...KLUK COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE. WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HAVE CB MENTION AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG. AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING 20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT. TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID THRU THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE. DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING... TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NW OHIO THROUGH SE OHIO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO WITH MORE FIRING BACK WEST TOWARD CHICAGO. HAVE LEFT ALL TERMINALS DRY AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN NORTH OF SITES THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. WITH MOIST AND MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE...KLUK COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE. WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HAVE CB MENTION AT ALL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RLG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG. AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING 20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT. TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID THRU THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 735 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .AVIATION(00Z-00Z)... FIRST WAVE DEVELOPING AND THEN MORE SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE. A BREAK THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN TIMING OF HOW MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON A SHORT WAVE BUT THE FRONT IS STILL REAL FAR NORTH. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL WITH WATCH BOX. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN WESTERN OHIO. LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KIELTYKA oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 615 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL WITH WATCH BOX. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN WESTERN OHIO. LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY WEAKEND LAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ON BACK EDGE BEFORE GETTING EAST OF YNG AND ERI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GRTLKS AND MIDWEST TODAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PRETTY MUCH FORCE ME TO INCLUDE STORMS IN TAFS AND MY BEST GUESS IS THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN MOST TAF SITES. SOME STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT KEEP THEM IN TAF ALL NIGHT LONG. MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENED UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY FROM GOING TOO LOW. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KOSARIK oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 249 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN WESTERN OHIO. LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY WEAKEND LAST FEW HOURS BUT SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ON BACK EDGE BEFORE GETTING EAST OF YNG AND ERI LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GRTLKS AND MIDWEST TODAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL PRETTY MUCH FORCE ME TO INCLUDE STORMS IN TAFS AND MY BEST GUESS IS THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN MOST TAF SITES. SOME STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT KEEP THEM IN TAF ALL NIGHT LONG. MVFR FOG/HAZE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENED UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TONIGHT TO KEEP VSBY FROM GOING TOO LOW. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KOSARIK oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 845 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006 .DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE INCREASING ACRS ERN WY IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU WRN WY ATTM. BOTH 00Z NAM/RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SWRN ZONES THRU 18Z TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK FOR SVR STORMS. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/WIND FCST. && .AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU ACRS NERN WY AND SWRN SD/NWRN NEB AS SCT -TSRA/-SHRA SPREAD ACRS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. $$ JOHNSON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1055 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINT VALUES SOMEWHAT IN THE WEST PART OF THIS AREA TO REFLECT VALUES IN THE 12Z RUC MODEL OUTPUT. IT IS NOTED THAT EVEN THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH IN SOME CASES. THIS AREA IS AROUND 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THIS YEAR TO DATE. HAVE USED THESE NEW VALUES TO AMEND THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. NEW PRODUCTS ARE OUT. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A SMALL AREA OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SW SD...AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PUSHING THROUGH JONES...LYMAN...AND BUFFALO COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT. SOME LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THAT LINE OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AS CAA CONTINUES ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. STRONGER UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SLIDING ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS H85 TEMPS HOVER IN THE TEENS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL...WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND 25-30KT. DO FEEL THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH MODELS INDICATING BETTER PRES GRADIENT TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER WAVE IMPACTS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE CWA...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.6 INCHES THURSDAY TO WELL ABOVE AN INCH BY LATE FRIDAY. LATEST NAM INDICATES A STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT ORIENTED TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MADE NO OTHER CHANGES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AGAIN THIS TIME AROUND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP GOING TO CATCH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION FROM THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL GO DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING IN THE TEENS...RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 268 THROUGH 270. MN...NONE. && $$ KEEFE/ALBRECHT/PARKIN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 355 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SHORT TERM... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BENDING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ALL DAY AND MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOWER 50S REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION. THE LATEST RUC HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND CORRECT SHOWING THESE MIXED DEWPOINTS AND BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS INDICATES THE BATCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL...PERHAPS HAVING AN IMPACT INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND EVEN WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN THE EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANYWAY...WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE CAPES AND LOW SHEAR WITH HIGH BASES STILL SPELL A WIND GUST THREAT...AND A LOWER HAIL THREAT...AS IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. RIDGE HEIGHTS SHOULD DIP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO REFORM FURTHER WEST...ALLOWING A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THICKNESS COOLING ALSO SHOULD ALLOW ABOUT 3 DEGREES COOLING FROM TODAY MOST AREAS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS. MCQUEEN .LONG TERM... RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD AS THURSDAY EVENING PROGRESSES WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING HRS. FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND COMPLEX OF STORMS SOUTHEAST WITH BEST CHC OF WETTING RAINS ACRS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL EARLY THEN OUTFLOW WINDS LATER AS MCS MATURES. WILL BUMP UP POPS IN THE KCDS VCNTY TO NR 60 PERCENT. OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVING FOR FRI AND SAT. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS GFS/NAM WRF NUMBERS...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP. BEST PRECIP CHANCE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WHICH FEATURES SLOW WARM-UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW POPS DURG THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS LOOK FINE WITH POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING IN FROM NEW MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 65 94 65 88 / 40 30 40 20 TULIA 66 90 66 86 / 30 20 50 30 PLAINVIEW 66 93 67 88 / 30 20 40 30 LEVELLAND 66 94 66 90 / 30 20 20 30 LUBBOCK 70 94 68 90 / 20 20 30 30 BROWNFIELD 66 94 67 91 / 30 20 20 30 CHILDRESS 70 92 69 89 / 20 20 60 30 SPUR 68 93 70 89 / 10 10 30 30 ASPERMONT 69 93 73 90 / 10 10 30 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/21 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 820 PM MDT WED JUN 21 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL UT...WITH 16C ANALYZED BY RUC ACROSS SOUTHERN UT...WHILE 700MB TEMPS NEAR THE ID BORDER ARE AROUND 8C THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER OVER THE UINTAS...HOWEVER DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN A MARKED DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE THERE IS SHIFTS EAST INTO CO. FURTHER WEST AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR SURFACE TROUGH EARLIER OVER EAST CENTRAL NV HAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST UT THIS EVENING. THUS FAR NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT NEAR ANY VIRGA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS UT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND...AND NO UPDATED ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AT KSLC AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY EARLY LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY DUE TO PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEE THE LATEST SLCTAFSLC FOR TIMING. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE MANAGED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON BUILDUPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN UT...WITH A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE UINTAS. ADDITIONAL BUILDUPS NOTED SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST UT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY VIRGA...OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS SUN SETS. OTHERWISE HAINES INDEX WILL RUN VERY HIGH THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS WELL...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF WELL DEVELOPED FIRE COLUMNS ON ACTIVE FIRES. VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO CRITICAL DAYS NOT EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SEAMAN ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 455 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE FCST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30 PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM... THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS ACRS NRN INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z. THUS...HAVE REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC ATTM. AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF. FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BML in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 150 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS ACRS NRN INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z. THUS...HAVE REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC ATTM. AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF. FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS HAS RECOVERED QUITE WELL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WERE NEAR 90 JUST UPSTREAM AND DEW POINTS 70 TO 75. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF OVER 5200 J/KG...AND 17Z LAPS CAPE NOT FAR BEHIND AT 4000-4500. HOWEVER...GIVEN EARLIER CANOPY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND EARLIER CONVECTION...EXPECT INITIATION TIME TO BE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. ACARS SOUNDING FROM BMI INDICATED A SMALL CAP JUST BELOW 800 MB...ALSO SUGGESTING A LATER INITIATION TIME. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED A CAP. A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WAS NEAR DSM AT 18Z...AND SHOULD REACH NW INDIANA/FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ONGOING FORECAST FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO APPEARS ON TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHTER WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT FRIDAY DRY THIS PACKAGE AS NCEP MODELS SHOWING MIXED SOLUTIONS. MAIN FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS WAS SHOWING A MUCH DIFFERENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTED WEST A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ANALOGS SHOWED A PATTERN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO WITH ALL CONSIDERED...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HICKMAN SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....SKIPPER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 120 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 .AVIATION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN THROUGH IA AND BACK INTO NE/KS WHILE A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED UP NORTH OF BOTH SBN AND FWA. MAIN FEATURE TO KEY ON EXPECTED TO BE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN IA WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP INTO NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS TO INTERACT WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LAID OUT OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TO TRIGGER TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND IMPACT BOTH TAF SITES. WILL INTRODUCE AS VCTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BRINGING PREVAILING -SHRA TO BOTH SITES...BUT STILL LEAVING CIGS VFR. EXACT TIMING STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL BRING IN A 1 HR TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO INDICATE TREND EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDL MCS CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT FOR THIS TO UNFOLD AND LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM... N-S ELEVATED CONVN ALG ERN EDGE OF PLAINS EML PLUME THIS AM FM WRN LWR MI DOWN INTO CNTRL IN. DOUBT THIS WILL POSE MUCH OF A SHRT TERM PROB AND MORE CONCERNED W/UPSTREAM DVLPMNT TAKING PLACE FM SE IA INTO NRN IL ATTM. THESE STORMS CONT TO UNDERGO ORGANIZATION AND ASSUMING CONV COLD POOL FORMS SUFFICIENTLY...THEN A MORE COHERENT SVR THREAT IN FORM OF HAIL/WIND SHLD MATERIALIZE YET BFR DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...WARM FRONTAL BNDRY CONTS TO MIX NWD AND NOW ARCHING FM CNTRL IL INTO SW OH. DOES NOT APPEAR MORNING CONV DEBRIS WILL POSE PROBLEMS IN TERMS OF ATTAINING ROBUST AFTN DESTABILIZATION W/ML CAPES APCHG 3K J/KG AND TREMENDOUS DEEP LYR SHEAR IN ASSOCN/W MCV AND MID LVL JET STREAK PROGRESSING OUT OF NEB. SUSPECT WKNG MCS OVR ERN NEB WILL REDEVELOP BY MID AM OVR IA AND THEN QUICKLY GO UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO NRN IL BY EARLY AFTN. DEGREE OF MSTR POOLING UNDERNEATH STEEP EML AND PROGGED INTENSITY OF MID LVL SPEED MAX SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD HIGH END WIND EVENT POSSIBLE W/MATURE SQUALL LINE AND VRY LARGE HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT W/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. SVR THREAT WILL CONT WELL INTO THIS EVENING ALG QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY OR COMPOSITE BNDRY MODULATED BY MCS INDUCED OUTFLW W/BACKBUILDING DVLPMNT XPCD ALG SW FLANK OF MCS. && .LONG TERM... WITH A COLD FRONT BEING IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO OCCUR. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND YET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG...LI VALUES TO -4...SOME MODERATE LAPSE RATES ALSO. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. GFS IS SHOWING QPF/MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS MOVING IT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN FURTHER AWAY ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING THAT MUCH QPF ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWS QPF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND DOESN'T SHOW THE HIGH SHOWING ITS INFLUENCE AND BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR TIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS DOES. FOR EXAMPLE AT 12Z FRIDAY THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT CUTTING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS IT AROUND SOUTHERN INDIANA. NO CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO SATURDAY TO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO BE OVER THE AREA FOR THEN WITH A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS SHORTWAVE TO BE DRY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL/HOLSTEN LONG TERM....LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 520 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 MAIN CONCERN IS ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES WAS UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE A SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING INTO ONTARIO AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. CANADIAN RADAR JUST NORTH OF THUNDER BAY SHOWS SHRA GENERALLY DISSIPATING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT INDICATING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH NRN COUNTIES BY 12Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND WILL PASS THROUGH KMNM BY 18Z. GIVEN DISSIPATION OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD WILL TRIM BACK SHRA TO ISOLD OVER THE NRN COUNTIES. LATE MORNING TIMING OF FRONT FOR SRN COUNTIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THERE (CAPES RISE TO OVER 400 J/KG ON KMNM NAM BUFR SNDG). THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY SUNNY. MIDDAY 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5C OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS 10-11C OVER THE SE. MIXING THESE TEMPS DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SFC WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS OF LOW 60S NW AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE MI. CLEARING SKIES...WITH SFC RDG AND ASSOC PREC WATER AXIS OF AROUND .5 WILL BUILD OVER UPR MI TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT WITH GOING FCST FOLLOWING COOLER GFS COOP MOS WHICH HAS MINS REACHING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. 00Z NAM AND GFS TRY TO BRING IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROF AND PUSH MLCAPES TO 200-400J/KG ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH STILL NO DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TRIGGER AND VERY DRY MID-LVLS NOTED ON 06Z NAM SNDGS WILL STAY WITH DRY FCST FOR NOW. ON SAT...MODELS DO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING IN NW FLOW TOWARD EVENING. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE A BIT QUICKER TIMING THAN THE NAM. GIVEN THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND THE FACT THAT THE NAM BUFR SNDGS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...WILL KEEP WITH GOING DRY FCST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED FURTHER BY DAY SHIFT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONTINUING MODEL TRENDS WOULD WARRANT CHC POPS FOR THE WRN HALF COUNTIES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN SHOWS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AREA...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MCV TYPE CIRCULATIONS THAT ARE THE RESULT OF ONGOING CONVECTION. ONE OF THESE MCV CIRCULATIONS IS MOVING ALONG THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AT THIS TIME...AND ANOTHER IS NOTED IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO THIS MORNING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG JET MAX OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WRF/NAM MODEL HAS THIS UPPER JET INCREASING TO AROUND 100 KTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THUS WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...IN AREA WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MCS COMPLEX THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE UPSWING ONCE AGAIN AFTER DIMINISHING SOME THIS MORNING. WRF/NAM MODEL IS SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD POOL EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE REMAINING AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES DOWN A BIT. EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH THIS EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ALL THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RETURN DRIER WEATHER TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE STAYED UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH ONLY THE RAIN COOLING OFF SOME AREA. RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY STAYING PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BUT RAIN MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP ANY BIG WARM UP FROM OCCURRING. SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR TODAY. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 541 PM CDT WED... CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN QUITE SOME TIME. BOOKBINDER 325 PM... FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MJ UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. WEBBER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 300 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)... WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT. LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW OH. ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC. CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS. GFS INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z. RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING. LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z. IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6 HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT INTO FA TODAY. THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE. H8 LLJ HAS ALSO FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH. SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. 00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT. DRYING ALOFT WILL WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE. THIS WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. GFS STILL FASTER WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS. OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN THESE AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF. 00Z WRF ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PB && .AVIATION (22/06Z TO 23/06Z)... SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR... WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER 16Z AND WILL MENTION A CB IN THE CLD GROUP TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO TAF SITES WILL BE HIT BY A STRAY STORM. MSE && .LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)... FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY. POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARMFRONT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SETTLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS DEPICT LARGE MCC OVER NORTHEAST OHIO MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAFS. THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS IN. HANDLED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON BY USING CB WORDING. THEN ADDED TEMPO FOR TIME PERIOD WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DUE TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. FELT PRECIPITATION WOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES KCVG AND KLUK, THUS NO MENTION. HIGH DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR FOG TO FORM VICINITY KLUK A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. HAYDU && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 532. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 530. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW S/W TO TRACK ACRS SRN GRTLKS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS NRN IN/NW OH/SRN MI WHERE CAPES ARE BTWN 3500-4000 J/KG. ILN 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 50MB AVG CAPE AROUND 2600 J/KG BUT A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE. DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING THIS CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS STORMS ACRS NRN INDIANA AND NRN OH WORK EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BUILD SWD INTO ILN/S FA. HAVE FOLLOWED LATEST RUC SOLN AND HAVE SLOWED TSTMS TIMING... TAKING STORMS INTO CNTRL FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SRN OH LATE TNGT. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACRS THE NW WITH STORMS ACRS NRN IN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION RESULTING IN AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. S/W OVER MID MS VLY TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN GRTLKS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTBY IN PLACE WITH 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATING A CAPE OF 2200 J/KG. AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPR DIV TO WORK INTO NW OH LATE THIS AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAPE WL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO SPREAD E ACRS FA WITH BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N. DELTA THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES APPROACHING 20 DEGS INTO THIS EVENING WITH WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 12K FEET. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL S/W. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LOOKS LKLY ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AFTN HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. AN AXIS OF LO LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW DURG THE AFTN SHUD FOCUS STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS ACRS THE NW TO CHC SE. HAVE EXPANDED THESE LKLY POPS SE WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ENTIRE FA THU NIGHT. TEMP WISE...HAVE GENERALLY GONE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUID THRU THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS. THUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EXPECT EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGHOUT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 140 AM EDT THU JUN 221 2006 .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... LARGE MCS ACROSS AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING BUT SCT TSTMS STILL BUILDING BACK TO W. WILL GRADUALLY END PCPN FROM W TO E BY ARND 12Z. SHOULD BE A BREAK THEN LATER THIS MORNING. FRONT JUST N OF AREA TOMORROW EVENING EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT LEAT OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. WESTERN OH COUNTIES RECOVER AS SUN BREAKS OUT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GOING CATEGORICAL WITH WATCH BOX. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. DEW POINTS WERE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN WESTERN OHIO. LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING CEILINGS TO THIN OUT AND ALLOW SOME SUN DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RUC MODEL INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 J/KG OVER WESTERN OHIO AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND IT WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF NVA MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS WILL GIVE US A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PRIMED AND UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. I WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND WITH CLOUD COVER WE WILL NOT SEE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN TOMORROW SO HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN MORE THAN TODAY SO WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL FORCE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SKIES FROM BEING CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO MODERATE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL UP MINS AND MAXES BY ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...WCR oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WHAT TO DO WITH THE MCS? THE GFS SEEMS THE FARTHEST FROM REALITY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP RIDING INTO NEW YORK STATE. BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM ARE TOO SLOW, BUT AT LEAST THEY DO SHOW A SOUTHEAST DRIFT. WE'LL RUN WITH THE NAM THIS MORNING, BUT BASED OFF SAT PIX TRENDS SPEED THINGS UP BY ABOUT THREE HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING INTO STABLE AIR, WHATEVER MAKES IT OVER THE CWA WILL BE IN A WEAKENED FORM. IR IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME WARMING CLOUD TOPS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO STARTING TO WANE. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD EFFECT US MORE THIS MORNING THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SHOW SOME DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THIS. THE MORNING MCS WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE HAD FULL SUN TODAY, MID 90S WOULD BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE WARMEST LOCALES. ALTHOUGH, MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, OUR BELIEF IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AROUND TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL AS DEWPOINTS INCH TOWARD 70 DEGREES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THE LAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HEAT, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE CAPE/LI VALUES. THEY LOOK MORE LEGITIMATE THAN IN THE RECENT PAST WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE NAM, AS OF LATE, HAS BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH CAPE DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE TOO HIGH. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROF IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN A BOUNDARY STEMMING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION, THE SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK. THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE POCONOS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES AND LI'S ARE ONCE AGAIN INDICATING A RIPE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE PW'S THAT ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TOPS OUT AROUND 2.25", WHILE THE NAM CLIMBS UP TO 2.60". WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOADS OF INSTABILITY, AND WITH A COLD FRONT INVOF, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PUT THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK (PER SWODY2). AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS OUR CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE REGION CONTINUING THE ALREADY WET CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA COULD CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO GET CLOSE TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN (THIS IS IN ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS TODAY AND FRIDAY). IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF. && .AVIATION... BY 3:00 AM, SOME MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS HAD BEGUN TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. THE CLOUDS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED IN NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, TSTMS WERE REGENERATING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE WE'RE NOT TERRIBLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WE'VE MENTIONED SOME CUMULONIMBUS FOR RDG AND ABE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE'VE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR TODAY ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .MARINE... WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OUR MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD BUILD GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PERHAPS GETTING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (5 FEET) ON SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...IOVINO MARINE...IOVINO pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .PUBLIC... 13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH JUST A FEW KINKS IN THE FLOW RELATED TO PROPAGATING MCS CLUSTERS ACROSS PA AND ANOTHER OVER IL. SOUTHEAST CONUS UNDER CONTROL OF LARGE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE AREA WITH VERY WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STILL EXPECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR AL & GA ZONES MAY ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK. MEAN 1000-700 MB FLOW REMAINS A WEAK E-NE FLOW OR A TYPE 2 REGIME. CURRENT POPS AROUND 20% ARE JUSTIFIED WITH THIS REGIME...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODIFIED 12Z KTLH SOUNDING IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. MODIFYING TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST CONDITIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON YIELDS BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE...AN LI OF AROUND -6...AND A PW OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES (NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). TWO FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA (AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO SURFACE FEATURES FROM YESTERDAY). AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS AS UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL HAVE SOME SUPPRESSING EFFECTS ON THE DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS...AND WITH THE WEAK FLOW MAY BE RATHER SLOW MOVERS. && .MARINE... SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WINDS STARING OUT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER MONTHS...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITHIN ABOUT 10 MILES OF THE COAST. && .AVIATION... AFTER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT TLH AND VLD THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEIR MENTION IN OUR TAFS. BRIEF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY...AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT...WILL OCCUR IN THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND FAIRLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR INCREASING MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...FOURNIER REST OF DISCUSSION...BAM fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 837 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 ...ANOTHER ACTIVE SVR WX DAY FROM LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO... .UPDATE... ANOTHER COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION DVLPG THIS AM W/UPSCALE TRENDS NOTED IN SMALL BUT SVR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW INTO WRN IL. LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED W/STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME STILL IN PLACE ACRS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OVERTOP SEASONABLY MOIST BNDRY LYR. QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS FM CNTRL LK HURON BACK SW INTO WK SFC FNTL WAVE ANALYZED OVR NE MO AS A REFLECTION OF ROBUST MCV ACRS NE KS SPAWNED FM LAST NIGHTS CONVN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF IL ACTIVITY WILL HEAT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH THIN CIRRUS SHIELD AND WARM START. GIVEN WELL DVLPD COLD POOL IN PLACE AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR XPC THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT TO INTENSIFY AS IT GRAVITATES EWD ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IL THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS XPC ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACRS IN/OH PORTIONS OF CWA BY LT MORNING INTO MID AFTN. WILL UPDATE RELEVANT PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MICHIGAN INTO NRN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. LOOKING TO THE WEST...WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MCS OVER ERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO WRN ILLINOIS. THIS MCS WAS ASSOCD WITH A MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACRS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. IT APPEARS THAT THE MCS HAS CAUSED A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN IOWA ON THE SOUTH END OF THE COLD FRONT. AM CONCERNED THAT THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONT MORE THAN CURRENT RUC AND NAM-WRF ARE INDICATING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO SHOWER WITH A CB MENTION AT KSBN. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS KSBN BY MID AFTERNOON...DWINDLING THE THREAT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR KFWA...THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THUS WILL EMPLOY A TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KFWA BY THIS TIME...SO WILL GO DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EXPECTED AT KSBN TOWARD MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE FCST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30 PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LONG TERM... THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOLSTEN SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BML in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 710 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MICHIGAN INTO NRN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. LOOKING TO THE WEST...WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MCS OVER ERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING EAST INTO WRN ILLINOIS. THIS MCS WAS ASSOCD WITH A MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACRS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. IT APPEARS THAT THE MCS HAS CAUSED A WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN IOWA ON THE SOUTH END OF THE COLD FRONT. AM CONCERNED THAT THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONT MORE THAN CURRENT RUC AND NAM-WRF ARE INDICATING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO SHOWER WITH A CB MENTION AT KSBN. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS KSBN BY MID AFTERNOON...DWINDLING THE THREAT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR KFWA...THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THUS WILL EMPLOY A TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z...THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTH. BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KFWA BY THIS TIME...SO WILL GO DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH EXPECTED AT KSBN TOWARD MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE FCST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30 PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LONG TERM... THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST INTO SE WISCONSIN...THEN INTO ERN IOWA AT 05Z. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING LOW LVL AC/STRATOCUMULUS ACRS NRN INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING SUSTAINED BY A MOIST LOW LVL WAA FLOW PATTERN. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF KFWA...AND THESE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KFWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KSBN BY 16Z. THUS...HAVE REMOVED CHC/S OF THUNDERSTORMS HERE AS IT LOOKS TO BE A SLIM CHC ATTM. AS FOR KFWA...FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NEAR 22Z...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A VCTS IN THE TAF. FOR THURSDAY EVENING...ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BML in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1120 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATE... MORNING MCS HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING... WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MO LIKELY TO MISS THE CWA TO THE SOUTH. 15Z OBS INDICATE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MO/IL... THOUGH CONVECTION IN IL IS MUDDYING THE SFC ANALYSIS. DISTINCT MCV WAS OVER NE KS/NW MO... AND 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP SHORTWAVE OVER NE KS. THESE FEATURES WILL PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL HELP FUEL STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/MCV. QUESTION FOR CWA IS WHETHER STORMS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RUC PROGS INDICATE VIRTUALLY NO CAPE NORTH OF HWY 34... EVEN ELEVATED... AND ONLY MINIMAL THERE... THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME SBCAPE AROUND 18Z IF TEMPS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EASTWARD... WITH RIGHT-MOVERS MOVING ESE. BELIEVE CHANCE EXISTS FOR STORMS TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT AREA WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TOO LITTLE CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS THIS FAR NORTH. DESTABILIZATION IN CLEARING AREA SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DRYING AT LOW/MID LEVELS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS... THOUGH MAY SEE PULSY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF STRONGEST HEATING... AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN AS MCV AND SHORTWAVE PASS BY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAINTAIN LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL POPS SOUTH BUT TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT TO NO PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 AS BELIEVE AREA IS TOO FAR POST-FRONTAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD AND TEMP GRIDS... BUT OTHER THAN CHANGES TO WEATHER AND POPS... CHANGES WERE MINOR. ..MAYES.. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 AM... LATEST SFC/MSAS ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INITIAL SFC BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER...AND UP THRU NORTHEAST IL AND WI. MORE DEFINED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST ACRS CENTRAL IA AND WESTERN WI GATEWAY TO DRIER AIRMASS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT WILL ROLL ALONG SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND MAKE IT RIGHT ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LOCAL FA THRU MIDDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MCS JUST UPSTREAM IMPACTING THE SAME AREA THIS MORNING. WILL COVER THE SOUTH HALF WITH CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS TO THE NORTH FOR MORE SCTRD AND ELEVATED TYPE CONVECTION. SOUTHERN 2-3 TIERS OF COUNTIES MAY BE SUSPECT TO ISOLATED SVR IN WAY OF WET MICROBURSTS UP TO 65 MPH...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL UP TO AN INCH. H25 MB JET STREAK INCREASING TO AT LEAST 100 KTS JUST NORTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER WILL ALSO ADD SUPPORT THIS MORNING TO STORM ACTIVITY. BETTER THERMODYNAMIC...INSTABILITY...AND LLVL CONVERGENCE OF THTA-E FIELDS ALL MIGRATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MO AND SOUTH HALF OF IL LOOKING PRIME FOR SVR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/IGNITED BY REMNANTS OF CURRENT MCS/. AS LARGE HUDSON BAY REGION UPPER LEVEL VORTEX TAKING HOLD...MAIN BELT OF UPPER WESTERLIES WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND MORE CYCLONIC IN NATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GRT LKS WILL SHUNT MAIN BOUNDARIES AND HIGHER SFC DPT POOLS SOUTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY...AND WILL TREND FCST POPS TO DRY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BETS POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FEEDING ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RE-INVIGORATED LLVL THTA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE FIELDS ACRS MO. GRT LKS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LK EFFECT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEEPEN ACRS THE CWA AS FRI PROGRESSES...MAKING FOR A DRIER/LOWER RH AND PLEASANT DAY TO END THE WEEK. WITH INSOLATION AND MIXING IN DEEPENING NORTHEAST FETCH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR FRI HIGHS. RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRI NIGHT SHOULD SET UP IDEAL RADIATION COOLING...AND WITH DPTS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S WILL BE IN STORE. QUICK LOOK AT LONGER RANGE SUGGEST TROUBLING NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE THE EARLIER INTRODUCED CHC POPS. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ MAYES ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 535 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH 18Z TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z WRF/NAM ARE CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SLN TO ICT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. NOTICED THAT THE RUC ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING AROUND 1500J/KG OF MU CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF I 135 ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 700MB WARM ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. THEREFORE AM HESITANT TO YANK POPS OVER CENTRAL KS...BUT DID LOWER QUITE A BIT FROM ORIGINAL ZONE ISSUANCE. LAWSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TODAY-TONIGHT: LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE. LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER WESTERN KS EARLIER THIS EVENING GENERATED AN MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR GBD AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY. 850MB FRONT WILL BE LINGERING AROUND THIS AREA PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE LIKELY DOWN THERE IF SOME SUN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS CAN GET TO AROUND 80 IN SE KS...THERE WOULD BE AROUND 2500-3000J/KG OF CAPE...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF BELOW 700MB. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SO ADJUST POPS IN GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IF WE GET SOME SUN TODAY...SATURATED GROUNDS WILL NOT ALLOW TO MUCH OF A WARM UP...SO WENT WITH HIGHS A TAD BELOW GFS MOS. FOR TONIGHT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE REGIONS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE SW KS/SE CO WHERE UPSLOPE WILL BE VERY PREVALENT TODAY. THE SECOND WOULD BE OVER EXTREME SE KS/NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO ALONG FRONT AS LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SE KS. FRI-SAT: BY FRI MORNING THERE SHOULD BE STORMS OVER ONGOING OVER WESTERN OK AND THE OZARKS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS OVER SW KS MAY GENERATE ANOTHER...WEAKER...MCV. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS PANNING OUT. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/WY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TO OUR WEST...WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL SET UP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN FOR FRI NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS AND GO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT AS STORM INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO HOME...IE NW KS. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS STILL IN PLACE...MUCH OF HEATING WILL GO TOWARDS EVAPORATION...THUS KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK. SO WILL GO UNDER GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. SUN-WED: BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE TO TRACK FROM WI AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUN. EVEN WITH WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA...THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO GET PRECIP FOR SUN. WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MON...WILL SHUT PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SUN...EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON-WED KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS ANTICIPATED. LAWSON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 64 85 64 / 60 20 20 10 HUTCHINSON 84 63 86 64 / 60 20 10 10 NEWTON 84 64 85 64 / 70 30 20 10 ELDORADO 85 64 84 64 / 70 40 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 86 65 85 65 / 60 30 20 10 RUSSELL 82 62 87 63 / 40 20 10 20 GREAT BEND 83 62 87 63 / 40 20 10 20 SALINA 84 63 85 63 / 70 30 10 20 MCPHERSON 84 63 85 63 / 60 20 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 86 65 83 64 / 80 60 30 10 CHANUTE 84 65 84 62 / 90 70 20 10 IOLA 84 65 83 62 / 90 70 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 85 65 83 64 / 80 60 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1150 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATED... I UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST THE 30 PCT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TO INTERSTATE 96. LOOKING RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN VARIOUS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THERE IS AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT THE MCV MOVING OUT OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WRN IL HAS ACTIVATED. AS THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 9 AM...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPED AND IS NOW MOVING ON SHORE. SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR BY...FROM FNT TO GRR AT 14Z... THE MCV MAY ACT TO INDUCE A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE MCS EVEN SO I WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REPORT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CONVECTION WITH THAT BOUNDARY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. GIVE THE JET ENTRANCE REGION IS OVER CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY... IT MADE SENSE TO ME SO I PUT A 30 PCT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 700 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WE'VE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS TRYING TO MOVE AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS KICKS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ALONG. FRONTAL POSITION IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THIS MORNING SINCE THE MCS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS...NEBRASKA...AND IOWA IS MUDDYING THE WATERS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI...INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOVES THE FRONT IN FITS AND STARTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TRYING TO TIME FROPA AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE DUE TO THE FICKLE NATURE OF WHERE AND WHEN THESE MCS'S WILL FORM. HAVE BASICALLY THROWN THE GFS IN THE TRASH DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE NEW NAM/WRF MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT HANDLE ON WHAT'S GOING ON OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME...SO I'VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS SOLUTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO 60-70 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA. I'M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY CATEGORICALLY THAT IT WILL RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DURING THAT TIME-FRAME DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT IT SURE SEEMS LIKELY THAT A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND SMALL SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT. BUT AGAIN...SIGNALS ARE VERY WEAK...SO HAVEN'T HIGHLIGHTED ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. MAY MENTION IT IN THE HWO LATER... THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES. THIS FINAL PUSH SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. THIS SHOULD PUT THE MIDWEST BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING OUR AREA RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CARNEY && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MCS CENTERED OVR SE IA IS MOVING TO THE EAST WITH CONVECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS CNTRL MO ON ITS SW FLANK. THE CELLS ON THE SW FLANK ARE MOVING TO THE NE. THIS MOTION ALG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MCS SHOULD BRING SHRA/TSRA INTO UIN THIS MRNG. THE INITIAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MCS. THERE IS A RATHER PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BNDRY AND THE RUC SHOWS DECENT H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THRU CNTRL MO...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THIS MRNG IN THE COU TAF IN LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL. THIS OUTFLOW IF IT LASTS COULD MORE OR LESS BECOME THE EFFECTIVE FORCING MECHANISM FOR PCPN TDA. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING A THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA TO COME WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM BUT STILL APPEARED TO BE DRAPPED ACRS IA INTO NRN KS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FRONT...BUT THE GREATEST CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE FRONT TO AROUND I-70 BY 00Z AND THEN SLOWLY SINK IT SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT. I HAVE PROB OR TEMPO GROUP TO ACCT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN REMOVED THE PCPN CHANCES FEELING THE BEST CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. GLASS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 935 AM MDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPDATES TO INCREASE CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUN OF WRF...AND RUC...INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS CHANGE LATE IN FIRST PERIOD...EXPANDED CHANGES INTO EVENING PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. INCREASED SKY GRIDS COMMENSURATE WITH CHANGES TO POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE TO DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST. WINDS AND MAXIMA LOOK OK. PREVIOUS SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BLAND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL NOT NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY LINGERING AT THE SURFACE...COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT MUCH AT LOW LEVELS TO FOCUS LIFT OTHER THAN POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LEE TROF DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MONTANA. STRONGER WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO DAKOTAS...SHOULD SEE RISING DEW POINTS ACROSS THE EAST IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING UPPER VORTICITY STREAMS FURTHER NORTH FOR DRY FORECAST. EBERT .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST FROM A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE DGEX MODEL PARTS WAYS WITH GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ECMWF THEN IS MUCH QUICKER IN BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD INITIATE COOLER FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...A TREND NOT SEEN IN THE GFS. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN LARGE CHANGES IN MODELS...WILL POSTPONE CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY IN HOPES OF SEEING GREATER MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH FUTURE RUNS. THEREFORE IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLES. SCT && .AVIATION... VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS. EXPECT JUST FEW TO SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS TO FORM AROUND 7-8K FT AGL FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTRUBANCE WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE KGGW AREA WESTWARD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. -MDP && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1040 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)... UPDATE...MRNG SHWRS HAVE NOW PULLED EAST AND WE ARE NOW AWAITING SCT AFTN CONV TO DVLP. WRF DERIVED MODEL SNDGS CAPES A BIT HI AS THE MODEL SEEMS TO STILL HAVE TOO MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND DEW PTS ARE TOO HIGH. STILL...MODIFYING 12Z RAOBS GIOVES CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG SO AFTN CONV SEEMS LIKELY WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAP. WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGER...WLD IMAGINE LAKE BNDRIES AND TERRAIN WILL FOCUS INITIAL BLD UPS. MAIN CNCNR FOR ANY SVR WLD BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH A BIT OF A MID LVL DRY PUNCH MVG IN. WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LVL CONV DEBRIS ARND...AND PLENTY OF CU...BELIEVE FCSTD MAX TEMPS A BIT HIGH SO HAVE LWRD. OTRW...JUST ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CRNT CONDS AND REISSUED. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO. MORFORD WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT. LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW OH. ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC. CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS. GFS INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z. RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING. LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z. IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6 HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT INTO FA TODAY. THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE. H8 LLJ HAS ALSO FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH. SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. 00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT. DRYING ALOFT WILL WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE. THIS WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. GFS STILL FASTER WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS. OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN THESE AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF. 00Z WRF ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PB && .LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)... FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY. POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY. RRM && .AVIATION (22/12Z TO 23/12Z)... VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS FIRST 2 HOURS. CIGS DROP TO 4 OR 5K FT...THEN MOVE EAST MIDDAY. SOME TS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR EVEN A TEMPS. WINDS OUT OF SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO W. WINDS TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAC && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 820 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .AVIATION (22/12Z TO 23/12Z)... VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS FIRST 2 HOURS. CIGS DROP TO 4 OR 5K FT...THEN MOVE EAST MIDDAY. SOME TS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY FOR EVEN A TEMPS. WINDS OUT OF SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO W. WINDS TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAC && .SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRI NGT)... WHAT LOOKED LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TURNED INTO ANYTHING BUT. LARGE SCALE COMPLEX RAKING NORTHERN OH IS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO WV/PA WITH BACK-BUILDING INTO NW OH. ADDNL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC. CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF MAIN MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EVOLUTION FROM THERE IS MURKY...AS IS ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. 00Z MODELS ALL HAD HARD TIME WITH INITIALIZATION OF QPF FIELDS. GFS INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH COMPLEX AND AS A RESULT...IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOCATION BY 12Z. RUC ALSO DID POOR JOB WITH INITIALIZATION BUT HAS SO FAR CAUGHT ONTO TREND OF DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST THRU MORNING. LOCAL AND OPERATIONAL WRF ALSO DID NOT PICK UP ON NORTHERN OH CONVECTION BUT DID INITIALLY SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS EXPLODE CONVECTION AND MOVE IT EAST INTO FA BTWN 10-12Z. IN REALITY...WHAT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED HAS LONG SINCE WEAKENED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLN IS EXTREMELY LOW FOR THE FIRST 6 HRS AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDNL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. WRF BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT INTO FA TODAY. THIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MODELS WERE INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE WOULD BE IN PLACE. H8 LLJ HAS ALSO FAILED TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MAIN CORE BEING SHOWN BY RUC ACROSS SEPA RATHER THAN UPSTATE NY AS INDICATED WITH PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST POSSIBLE MINUTE BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE WHETHER ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THEN TAPERING TO LO CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH. SCTD STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. 00Z WRF HINTING AT PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY EVENING WITH CONVECTION SPREADING AHEAD OF IT. DRYING ALOFT WILL WORK IN...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. MODEL DEWPTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT STILL THINK MID-UPPER 60S REASONABLE. THIS WOULD YIELD CAPES ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND -5C. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LOW WET-BULB ZEROES FVRBL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS IF IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WEREN/T BAD ENOUGH...MODELS DIVERGE RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. GFS STILL FASTER WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT...BUT STALLS IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...DEVELOPING WAVE THAT RIDES UP FRI NIGHT WOULD DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 00-12Z SAT...WITH GFS INDICATING 3.00+ INCHES ACROSS CATSKILLS. OPERATIONAL WRF SAGS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER QPF IN THESE AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BTWN GFS/WRF. 00Z WRF ALSO SHOWING SPURIOUS HEAVY PCPN BAND TO NORTHWEST OF SFC FRONT 00Z SATURDAY IN REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR IF FEATURE MAY BE REAL...BUT WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. IF GFS VERIFIES...EXTREMELY WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASED FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PB && .LONG RANGE (SAT - WED)... FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH MONDAY. POP GRADIENT THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AREAS OVER SRN PTN OF CWA POSSIBLY RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY, BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR AREA TO RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR FOLLOWED BY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1032 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ATOP THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIKELY CLIMBING ABOVE -10C THROUGH THE DAY. THE MCS TRACK WILL HOLD TO OUR NORTH AND NO LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM FOR NC IS EVIDENT IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSES... ASIDE FROM VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 925 MB. DESPITE A WEAK CAP ALOFT... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH ADJUSTED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OVER 1700 J/KG... BUT TOTAL TOTALS ARE A MINISCULE 39. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL EXCEED 6 C/KM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA... AND GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS AND ANY POSSIBLE GROUND MOISTURE FLUX DIFFERENTIAL... FEEL JUSTIFIED LEAVING IN THE CURRENT ISOLATED POPS. WE ARE STARTING THE DAY TRENDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST PACE OF TEMPERATURES... BUT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S STILL APPEAR REACHABLE. -GIH && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 653 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006) SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT AND CONFINE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. -RFG PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 140 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR DESTINED FOR MID 90S AND COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 68-71 DEGREE RANGE WILL YEILD HEAT INDICES NEAR 102. A SPEACIAL STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT STRESS TODAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH BY SATURDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW ALOFT IN FAVOR OF A MORE SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BACK DOWN BUT STILL MAX ABOVE 90 ON FRI AND CLOSER TO NORMAL UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME CLOUDINESS ON THE INCREASE. -RFG LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS SUGGEST A PREDOMINANTLY WET PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES FROM AN INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. EACH OF THE MODELS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH AN AXIS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NE OF BERMUDA PRODUCES A FLOW OF AIR WITH A LONG FETCH OFF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY WITH WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONS FIXED OVER THE WEST COAST AND CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND BASICALLY SETS UP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE EAST COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND GREATEST RAINFALL COVERAGE YET TO BE DETERMINED. BUT FOR CENTRAL NC...EACH 12 HOURS SEGMENT WILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DEW POINTS FAVORING THE 70 DEGREE MARK SHOULD KEEP NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 70. -RFG AVIATION... HIGH HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 BUT RADIATION IS BEING BLOCKED A BIT BY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. STILL EXPECT IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG IN THE PREDAWN AT FAY AND RWI WHICH HAD RAIN YESTERDAY AND HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO MVFR AT ISSUANCE. TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT AS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. -MLM && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1152 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 HAVE UPDATED TO SPRUCE UP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPS/POPS/WX FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS SPREADING DOWN FROM THE N AND NW, SO AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO FORECAST LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COULD BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE, SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX TO FIT MORE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL REEVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. RPW PREVIOUS DISC... .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WHAT TO DO WITH THE MCS? THE GFS SEEMS THE FARTHEST FROM REALITY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP RIDING INTO NEW YORK STATE. BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM ARE TOO SLOW, BUT AT LEAST THEY DO SHOW A SOUTHEAST DRIFT. WE'LL RUN WITH THE NAM THIS MORNING, BUT BASED OFF SAT PIX TRENDS SPEED THINGS UP BY ABOUT THREE HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING INTO STABLE AIR, WHATEVER MAKES IT OVER THE CWA WILL BE IN A WEAKENED FORM. IR IMAGES ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME WARMING CLOUD TOPS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO STARTING TO WANE. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS SHOULD EFFECT US MORE THIS MORNING THAN THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SHOW SOME DECREASING CLOUD TRENDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BECAUSE OF THIS. THE MORNING MCS WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE TROF THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE HAD FULL SUN TODAY, MID 90S WOULD BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE WARMEST LOCALES. ALTHOUGH, MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, OUR BELIEF IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AROUND TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL AS DEWPOINTS INCH TOWARD 70 DEGREES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THE LAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HEAT, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE CAPE/LI VALUES. THEY LOOK MORE LEGITIMATE THAN IN THE RECENT PAST WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE NAM, AS OF LATE, HAS BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH CAPE DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE TOO HIGH. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE. WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE TROF IN THE VICINITY OR EVEN A BOUNDARY STEMMING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION, THE SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK. THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE POCONOS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES AND LI'S ARE ONCE AGAIN INDICATING A RIPE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE PW'S THAT ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS TOPS OUT AROUND 2.25", WHILE THE NAM CLIMBS UP TO 2.60". WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, LOADS OF INSTABILITY, AND WITH A COLD FRONT INVOF, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PUT THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK (PER SWODY2). AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS OUR CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE REGION CONTINUING THE ALREADY WET CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE CWA COULD CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO GET CLOSE TO OR OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN (THIS IS IN ADDITION TO WHAT FALLS TODAY AND FRIDAY). IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF. && .AVIATION... BY 3:00 AM, SOME MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS HAD BEGUN TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. THE CLOUDS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED IN NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, TSTMS WERE REGENERATING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AS MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE WE'RE NOT TERRIBLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RESULTING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WE'VE MENTIONED SOME CUMULONIMBUS FOR RDG AND ABE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE'VE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR TODAY ON AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .MARINE... WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OUR MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD BUILD GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PERHAPS GETTING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA (5 FEET) ON SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...IOVINO MARINE...IOVINO pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1048 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATE...TODAY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU FIELD ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA AND A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RUC/HI RES NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LI VALUES FROM -2 TO -4 OVER THE AREA AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TT sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 940 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATE... SEVERE TSTM IN SOUTHWEST KY OVER BENTON KY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL POOL AROUND 500 MB ON LATEST RUC RUN WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LURKING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM CONVECTION THAT COLLAPSED LAST EVENING ALONG PLATEAU AND FAR EASTERN MIDDLE. BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM LEWISBURG TO LEBANON TO LAFAYETTE. HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS WORK NORTH THROUGH THE PULASKI AREA THIS MORNING BUT THESE HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY HERE IN MIDDLE TN WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 90S. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006) DISCUSSION... A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS. AN WEAK TROUGH LIES FROM NRN OK TO NRN MO TO NRN OH. FURTHER N...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIES FROM NORTH DAKOTA EWD ACROSS MN TO A STRONG SFC LOW IN E CNTRL CANADA. 500MB HGHTS DROP FROM THEIR CURRENT 591 DM DOWN TO 585 DM BY SAT AM AS THE H5 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DEEPENS A BIT. AS THE ASSOCD CANADIAN SFC RIDGE PRESSES THE 2 TROUGHS SWD THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A FAIRLY INTENSE SFC LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY THU NGT AND MOVES IT EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE 48 HR TIME STEPS ON THE 20 KM NAM AND THE 80 KM NGM HAVE NO SUCH FEATURE. THUS IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM HAS REARED ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN. THUS THE SHORT RANGE GFS WAS MOSTLY TOSSED AND THE NAM/NGM WAS USED FOR INITIALIZATION. AS THE FRONT GETS PUSHED SWD POPS DECLINE INTO THE 20S OR LOWER FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER S AND DRIER AIR OCCUPIES THE MIDSTATE. MOS TEMPS WERE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. MOS POPS...DESPITE THE GFS SHORT RANGE PROBLEMS... SEEM TO BE FAIRLY REASONABLE AND INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE FRONT/TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THEN DECLINE AFTERWARD. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 309 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZFP/GRIDS... MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS PULLED OUT OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN...WITH SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN IL/NW IND. 18 UTC SOUNDING FROM ILX AND RECENT ACARS OBSERVATIONS OUT OF KRFD/KORD INDICATE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SINKING AIR...WITH WARMING IN 750-850 HPA LAYER KEEPING CAP ON ANY RENEWED CONVECTION AS WELL AS PREVENTING FULL POTENTIAL OF AFTN WARMING AT SFC. MAIN QUESTION NOW IS DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO REGION AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM MN...AND ALSO FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AS SHORT WAVE/MCS OVER MO MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS IL. FOR THE FORMER...LATEST SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS TOOLS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG SRN WI SOUTHWEST THROUGH IA...WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. VIS SAT PICS SHOW SOME ENHANCED CU DVLPG OVER WRN IA...AND OVER ECNTRL WI. GIVEN THAT THIS BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NRN IL/NW IND UNTIL LATE EVENING AT DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND CAPPING ALREADY NOTED DURG AFTN HOURS AHEAD OF IT WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NRN PARTS OF CWA. FOR SRN PARTS ALSO NOT IMPRESSED WITH ABILITY TO RECOVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH AM CONCERNED THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF CURRENT MCS PRECIP WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST INTO TAIL BROAD UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVRNGT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI. MID LVL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTN...DECREASING PCPN THREAT THERE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS GRTLKS FRI AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY QUITE WX FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP THREAT OCCURS SUNDAY AFTN...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MS VLY/WI IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALFT. APPEARS AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL WOULD MAINLY BE DIURNAL ISOLATED/SCT TRW SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL WAA ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS GFS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LLVL WIND FIELD IN VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC RIDGE AXIS. BASED ON THIS WILL ONLY HAVE LOW CHC POP MAINLY NRN 1/2 OF CWA SUN AFTN THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. OTHERWISE GOING FCST APPEARS TO BE HOLDING UP VERY WELL...AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TEMP TWEAKS WERE MADE. ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NOAM...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING DRY FCST ATTM. RATZER && .AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS... 100 PM CDT MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE ON SHORT TERM WINDS...AND THEN POST-FRONTAL WINDS TONIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MVFR CIGS. MESO-HIGH HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER CHAOTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. WILL CARRY A VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND THEN BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOME CONCERN THAT AN EASTERLY LAKE ENHANCED COMPONENT COULD HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER INSTABILITY SETTING UP WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF FEW CU BASED AROUND 5K FT THIS AFTERNOON...JUST EXPECTING SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM THE REMANTS OF THE MORNING MCS. CONCERN TONIGHT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REGION. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CAA SHOULD AFFECT NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF 2K FT STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE ANY CIGS. DURING TIME OF PEAK LOW LEVEL CAA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 15 TO 20 RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS. NDM && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 ...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON... .UPDATE NUMBER 2... FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 541 INCLUDING ALL OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES. EXTENDED LIKELY POPS INTO THIS EVENING FOR OHIO COUNTIES AS WELL. && .AVIATION... COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THRUST IS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...BUT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY AT FORT WAYNE TERMINAL. KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN FORT WAYNE TAF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SOUTH BEND TERMINAL BY 18Z WITH NO MORE THUNDER EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE TIME PERIOD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL DROP TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. && .UPDATE... ANOTHER COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION DVLPG THIS AM W/UPSCALE TRENDS NOTED IN SMALL BUT SVR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW INTO WRN IL. LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED W/STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME STILL IN PLACE ACRS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OVERTOP SEASONABLY MOIST BNDRY LYR. QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS FM CNTRL LK HURON BACK SW INTO WK SFC FNTL WAVE ANALYZED OVR NE MO AS A REFLECTION OF ROBUST MCV ACRS NE KS SPAWNED FM LAST NIGHTS CONVN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF IL ACTIVITY WILL HEAT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH THIN CIRRUS SHIELD AND WARM START. GIVEN WELL DVLPD COLD POOL IN PLACE AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR XPC THIS CLUSTER WILL CONT TO INTENSIFY AS IT GRAVITATES EWD ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IL THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS XPC ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACRS IN/OH PORTIONS OF CWA BY LT MORNING INTO MID AFTN. WILL UPDATE RELEVANT PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE. THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO FINE TUNE FCST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30 PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LONG TERM... THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 537 INZ006-007-008-009-012>016- 017-018-020-022>024-025>027-032>034 .OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORN WATCH 541 FOR OHZ 002-004-005-015- 016-024-025 MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...GLL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BML in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 446 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE GOING FCST SHORTLY FOR PRECIP AND POPS IN THE SRN CWA. SHORTWV TRACKING E THRU IA/MO HAS FLARED UP AN AREA OF PRECIP NR IA/MO BORDER MORE WIDEPREAD THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE RUC I EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ 50 ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 334 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... MAIN QUESTION THIS CYCLE WILL AGAIN BE CONVECTION. CONVECTION ALREADY BLOWING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OUT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT. NONE OF THE 12Z OR 15Z MODELS HAD FORECAST ANY OF THE HUGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, NORTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS GREATLY DISTRESSING. EVEN THE USUALLY GOOD FSL RUC13 AND RUC20 MISSED IT ENTIRELY. THE MUCH VAUNTED 12Z WRF IN PARTICULAR WAS HORRIBLE IN BOTH INITIALIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 18Z WRF DID INITIALIZE THE CONVECTION BUT IMMEDIATELY LOST IT IN ITS FORECASTS. PER DISCUSSION WITH GLD WILL HOLD ON TILL THE LAST MINUTE IN HOPES WE CAN DEDUCE ANY TRENDS FROM IT THAT WILL HELP WITH THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE ABOVE FOR TONIGHT WILL PLAY WHAT THE MODELS DID FORECAST, NAMELY ANOTHER MCS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND COS TO BETWEEN EHA AND LBL AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE. MUCAPES IN THAT AREA WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SPIN UP SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES. AGREE COMPLETELY WITH SPC WATCH 545 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LATER WATCH INTO THE PANHANDLES. HAVE ALSO GONE CATEGORICAL FOR PRECIP FROM DDC WEST WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT IN MY FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AFTER TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP SUPPORTS A FEW MORE NIGHTS OF LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FIRING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE LEFT SOME SMALLER POPS IN PLACE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. GIVEN THE MODELS PERFORMANCE AND THEIR HUGE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE KEPT POPS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER BOTH NIGHTS AND ALSO ON SATURDAY AS THE MOS SEEMS TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH WARMING IN SPITE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR REINFORCING THE POLAR FRONT TO OUR SOUTH EACH NIGHT. DAYS 3-7... LATE IN THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC LOW AND LOCATION OF OUR UPPER RIDGE AXIS AROUND THE CNTL CONUS. AM THEREFORE LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7. UNTIL THEN ANY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN SOMEWHERE IN WRN KS. AT THIS TIME AM UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OR LOCATION DOWN DUE TO HOW MODELS HANDLE THESE WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE WITH THIS SO WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND DRYER PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS FOR HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK SINCE SEE LITTLE REASON TO GO MUCH WARMER BASED ON PROGGED EC OR GFS 85H TEMPS. DID LOWER OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE ACTUALLY NOT LOOKING TOO BAD THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 85 62 85 / 90 10 10 20 GCK 61 86 61 85 / 90 10 20 30 EHA 61 84 61 87 / 100 10 20 10 LBL 62 86 62 87 / 100 10 20 10 HYS 62 85 62 84 / 30 0 10 20 P28 63 85 63 86 / 30 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SVR TSTM WATCH 545 TIL 11PM CDT. && $$ FN08/18 JOHNSON/BURGERT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 230 PM MDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS. THIS WILL PROBABLY HERALD THE CHANGE TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. THREE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. FIRST ONE IS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SECOND ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIRD ONE IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOW THE MODELS NOT TOO BAD. UKMET/GFS WERE CATCHING THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE PACIFIC THE BEST WITH THE GFS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON THE LOW POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND RUC LOOK TO BE CAPTURING THE SECOND AND THIRD SHORTWAVE POSITIONS THE BEST. ALSO THE RUC AND UKMET ARE CATCHING THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING SHORTWAVE THE BEST. HOWEVER...THE UKMET DAMPENS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT. MODELS HAVE TROUBLE WITH TROUGH POSITIONS AND STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST/NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH SYSTEMS. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST THAT BROUGHT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE GFS WAS THE CLOSEST BUT IT WAS TOO FAR EAST. THE PROBLEMS WERE NOT AS BAD OUT WEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...THE UKMET WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE GFS. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS DOING VERY WELL WITH CURRENT SITUATION. NAM IS DOING THE BEST RIGHT NOW ON THE WIND FIELD. GFS INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST ON TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/NAM FOR THIS FORECAST. TONIGHT...INTERESTING COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING/APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WYOMING SHORTWAVE. ALSO...EITHER ANOTHER FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OR BOTH PROVIDING SURFACE CONVERGENCE HELP TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET IS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY ON. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE TRENDS OF THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION MAY HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERN PORTION RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THIS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHUT OFF QUICKLY WITH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE SEEING SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NAM/NGM SHOW A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/UKMET DO NOT SHOW THIS. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH EARLY...AND RAPIDLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OVER THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS ONE HAS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AFTER IGNORING IT YESTERDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS FEATURE...AND THE POPS HAVE INCREASED. ALSO SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WILL START THE CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN THE WEST...AND THEN PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WARMEST IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE SURFACE...POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL AGAIN GO CHANCE STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO WET GROUND AND UPSLOPE WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR GOOD PERFORMANCE AND PREVIOUS TRENDS. IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE MAKING THE WESTERN RIDGE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW THE FLOW IS TRANSITIONING RIGHT NOW. OVERALL THE GFS DOES THE BEST WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF NOT TOO FAR BEHIND UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TOO FAST AND IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. ALMOST STRAIGHT NORTH FLOW ALOFT THEN WE START TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. AGAIN HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THIS PATTER WITH THE DETAILS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT ON THE PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THIS FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT WARM TOO MUCH...AND GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL PROBABLY GO CLOSE TO. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .UPDATE... THIS AFTERNOON: NEARLY ALL FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST APPEAR INTACT...AS BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REMAIN SLATED FOR SE KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO 850-MB COLD FRONT THAT'LL SURGE SE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MOISTURE- RICH ENVIRONMENT. PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AC & CUMULIFORM DEBRIS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY & WITH SFC & 850-MB DEWPOINTS OF ~65F & ~15C RESPECTIVELY AIRMASS SHOULD QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPES REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...SO A FEW SVR TSRA POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO "UPGRADE" THE WX DESCRIPTOR FROM "TRW-" TO "TRWM"...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/ UPDATE... WILL UPDATE TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH 18Z TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE 09Z RUC AND 06Z WRF/NAM ARE CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SLN TO ICT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. NOTICED THAT THE RUC ANALYSIS IS STILL SHOWING AROUND 1500J/KG OF MU CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF I 135 ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 700MB WARM ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. THEREFORE AM HESITANT TO YANK POPS OVER CENTRAL KS...BUT DID LOWER QUITE A BIT FROM ORIGINAL ZONE ISSUANCE. LAWSON && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TODAY-TONIGHT: LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS I TYPE. LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER WESTERN KS EARLIER THIS EVENING GENERATED AN MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR GBD AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY. 850MB FRONT WILL BE LINGERING AROUND THIS AREA PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE LIKELY DOWN THERE IF SOME SUN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IF TEMPS CAN GET TO AROUND 80 IN SE KS...THERE WOULD BE AROUND 2500-3000J/KG OF CAPE...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF BELOW 700MB. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AREA CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SO ADJUST POPS IN GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IF WE GET SOME SUN TODAY...SATURATED GROUNDS WILL NOT ALLOW TO MUCH OF A WARM UP...SO WENT WITH HIGHS A TAD BELOW GFS MOS. FOR TONIGHT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A COUPLE REGIONS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL BE SW KS/SE CO WHERE UPSLOPE WILL BE VERY PREVALENT TODAY. THE SECOND WOULD BE OVER EXTREME SE KS/NORTHERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO ALONG FRONT AS LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SE KS. FRI-SAT: BY FRI MORNING THERE SHOULD BE STORMS OVER ONGOING OVER WESTERN OK AND THE OZARKS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WITH THE THINKING THAT STORMS OVER SW KS MAY GENERATE ANOTHER...WEAKER...MCV. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS PANNING OUT. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/WY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TO OUR WEST...WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL SET UP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN FOR FRI NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS AND GO SLIGHTS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT AS STORM INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO HOME...IE NW KS. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS STILL IN PLACE...MUCH OF HEATING WILL GO TOWARDS EVAPORATION...THUS KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK. SO WILL GO UNDER GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. SUN-WED: BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER WAVE TO TRACK FROM WI AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUN. EVEN WITH WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA...THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA TO GET PRECIP FOR SUN. WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MON...WILL SHUT PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SUN...EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON-WED KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS ANTICIPATED. LAWSON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 64 85 64 / 60 20 20 10 HUTCHINSON 84 63 86 64 / 60 20 10 10 NEWTON 84 64 85 64 / 70 30 20 10 ELDORADO 85 64 84 64 / 70 40 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 86 65 85 65 / 60 30 20 10 RUSSELL 82 62 87 63 / 40 20 10 20 GREAT BEND 83 62 87 63 / 40 20 10 20 SALINA 84 63 85 63 / 70 30 10 20 MCPHERSON 84 63 85 63 / 60 20 10 20 COFFEYVILLE 86 65 83 64 / 80 60 30 10 CHANUTE 84 65 84 62 / 90 70 20 10 IOLA 84 65 83 62 / 90 70 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 85 65 83 64 / 80 60 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 357 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN CHANCES INTO FCST FRI-SUN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROF HAS AMPLIFIED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKED THRU ONTARIO. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS CLEARED THE FCST AREA (JUST RECENTLY KMNM) AND IS INTRODUCING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS INTO UPPER MI. 12Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 3/0C AT KINL/CWPL WHICH ARE 8/10C LWR THAN THE 00Z READINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM BOTH SOUNDINGS WAS LOW AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES...WHICH IN THE CASE OF KINL IS 43PCT OF NORMAL. STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE ERODING FROM THE NW...AND IN FACT SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR OVER THE KEWEENAW SINCE ABOUT 18Z. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER UPPER MI. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE NOT CLEARED OUT YET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BATCH OF CLOUDS TO THE NW AROUND KINL THAT ARE NOT GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING. CANADIAN RADARS EVEN SHOW ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA. SPRINKLES WON'T SURVIVE THIS FAR E INTO THE DRY AIR...BUT SCT MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT PLAN ON THE CLOUDS REALLY AFFECTING COOLING TONIGHT (EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF CLOUDS MAY BE A FACTOR TO KEEP TEMPS UP). WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER (DEPICTED BY 12Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING)...TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET. GOING FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. PROBABLY WON'T QUITE BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE ANY FROST. 38F RECORD FOR THE 23RD AT THE OFFICE IS WITHIN REACH. HIGH PRES JUST DRIFTS TO THE SE FRI. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (MORE CLOUDS SW WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS INDICATED)... MIXING UPWARDS OF 750MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS AS HIGH AS 75F AT THE TOP END WHICH IS INLINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. NAM INDICATES MLCAPE INCREASING TO 400-600J/KG OVER THE FAR W (VCNTY OF KIWD) LATE IN THE AFTN WHILE GFS SHOWS MLCAPE INCREASING TO 600-800J/KG. MODELS SEEM A BIT QUICK TO INCREASE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LATE AFTN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LACK OF FORCING. WILL ALSO STAY WITH A DRY FCST SAT NIGHT DESPITE GFS CONTINUED INSISTENCE ON SOME PCPN ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCING IS MEAGER AT BEST AS IS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ESE TO THE SW OF UPPER MI. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS INDICTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SAT AND INTO THE WRN LAKES ON SUN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR S THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WITH THE CANADIAN/UKMET FARTHER S THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT THIS TIME RANGE... DIFFERENCE DOESN'T REALLY IMPACT FCST HERE SIGNIFICANTLY AS ALL THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN WOULD STAY S OF FCST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE GREATER. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS SAT AFTN OVER THE SW/CNTRL AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN AFTN. MON THRU THU...THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT TODAY BTWN THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. CHANGE THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP IN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS CONTINUES WITH MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS TODAY. ECWMF SHOWS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST 2 RUNS (12Z/21 AND 00Z/22). IT HAS THE SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS INTO THE WRN LAKES SUN BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST MON-THU AS MAIN FLOW ABANDONS IT BY SHIFTING WELL TO THE N. AFTER THE GFS (12Z/21 RUN) SHOWED SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE ECWMF YESTERDAY...THE RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE GONE BACK TO THE PATTERN IT HAD BEEN SHOWING FOR SOME TIME (NAMELY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REESTABLISHING THE TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD). THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH TROFFING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. SO...WILL FAVOR SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS GIVEN ITS OVERALL CONSISTENCY ON THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE LAST MANY RUNS AND SINCE IT STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE GOING FCST. SIMILAR TO THE DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DAY MON... ASSUMING THE SHORTWAVE FROM SUN SLIPS FAR ENOUGH S AND E. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE AREA TUE...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS MON NIGHT/TUE. WILL LEAVE WED DRY AND EXTEND INTO THU WITH NO CONSISTENT INDICATIONS OF ANY SHORTWAVES APPROACHING THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...WNW/NW FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR UPPER MI WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 328 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ATTM WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL SPREAD INTO WI BY DAYBREAK WITH LOWS NEAR 50 OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS US THIS EVENING... KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO OUR NW HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BEST LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE PROGGED BY THE RUC TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. EVENING CREW CAN HANDLE A SHOWER OR TWO WITH A NOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. AFTER SEEING THE 09Z SREF...SIDED MORE WITH THE NAM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THE 50 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS SEEN ON THE NAM ALONG WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAYER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE MN CWA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT COULD BE INTERESTING IF WE CAN RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. SHEAR PARAMETERS FORECAST BY THE NAM ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. BUT AGAIN...MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. .LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE ACCEPTED GFS40 GUIDANCE AS MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS RECENT DEPICTION OF LAST TWO COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH EXITING OF 50H SHORT WAVE OVER SE CWA. HAVE KEPT SLT POPS OVER EXTREME SE PORTION OF CWA DUE TO WEAK FORCING PER 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND POSSIBILITY COOL FRONT MAY BE SLOWER THEN ANTICIPATED DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE UNTIL TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING RATHER MOISTURE LIMITED COOL FRONT DIVES INTO CENTRAL MN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AN IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE COUPLET DOES DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN THIS TIME FRAME. DP/DT INDICATING MOISTURE AXIS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUN. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB JET MAX PROGGED OVER SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES THROTTLED BACK AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY DURING REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOSED 50H LOW ORBITING JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ RAH/AZ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 430 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 DISCUSSION... MCV LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER KS REFIRED RATHER QUICKLY BY MID MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ORGANIZED INTO ANOTHER MCS. THIS FEATURE IS NOW JUST NORTH OF SZL. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD EXIT THE CWA IN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN IT WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO TRUE COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH WITH A BOUNDARY STILL LYING FROM SOUTHEAST NE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM EAST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST KS. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY WILL GUIDE ANOTHER MCS WHICH IS ONGOING OVER NORTHWEST KS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY AND A LACK OF DRYING WITH LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT. SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. MINOR COOLING AT 850MB FOR TOMORROW AND HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES US SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE GENERAL TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...LEAVING US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY TRYING TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS NOT FOLLOWED AS IT HAS HAD SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES. UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR TO SEE THE ATMOSPHERE CLOSE OFF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THEN STALL IT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAKE ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 318 AM... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN SHOWS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AREA...WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...THERE IS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE MCV TYPE CIRCULATIONS THAT ARE THE RESULT OF ONGOING CONVECTION. ONE OF THESE MCV CIRCULATIONS IS MOVING ALONG THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AT THIS TIME...AND ANOTHER IS NOTED IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO THIS MORNING...WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG JET MAX OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WRF/NAM MODEL HAS THIS UPPER JET INCREASING TO AROUND 100 KTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THUS WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...IN AREA WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MCS COMPLEX THAT PRODUCED THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE UPSWING ONCE AGAIN AFTER DIMINISHING SOME THIS MORNING. WRF/NAM MODEL IS SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD POOL EFFECTS EXPECTED TO BE REMAINING AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIES DOWN A BIT. EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. WILL PULL CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH THIS EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ALL THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RETURN DRIER WEATHER TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE STAYED UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH ONLY THE RAIN COOLING OFF SOME AREA. RAIN SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY STAYING PRETTY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BUT RAIN MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP ANY BIG WARM UP FROM OCCURRING. SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGES AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR TODAY. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 541 PM CDT WED... CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEGUN IN THE VICINITY OF CONCORDIA KS WHERE 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK LOW CENTER. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAXIMIZED ALONG A GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM FAR NRN MO INTO SW KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF MUCH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REGIONWIDE...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH HAS LOCALLY BEGUN TO CONGEAL AND TOWER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING AND RUC/NAM-WRF PROGS SHOW THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE REGION BENEATH A NARROW PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING NNE FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN KS/NRN MO WILL DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AIDED BY AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL JET...ALONG WITH AMBIENT INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD ALLOW CURRENTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO STEADILY GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BACK BUILD...HOWEVER GENEROUS DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND FORWARD PROPAGATION...BRINGING AN EXPECTED MCS INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THINK THE NAM-WRF HAS GENERAL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...BUT LIKELY MUCH TOO SLOW ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY OF THE MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN ENHANCED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREA OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO TO TRENTON. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR WRN MO/ERN KS IN QUITE SOME TIME. BOOKBINDER 325 PM... FORECAST CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIED TO A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THE KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF MOST IMPORTANCE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE IA/NORTHWEST MO PORTION OF THE FRONT IS PASSING BY...SO THE FRONT WILL STALL AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MO. PLENTY OF CU HAS FORMED ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING MUCH MORE DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE FIELD. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM SOON FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF CO THIS EVENING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS KS. NAM-WRF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WHILE THE CANADIAN SHOWS TWO CENTERS BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE UKMET IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT A BIT FASTER. FAVOR THE NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WITH CONVECTION INITIATING THIS EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MO LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RESULTING COLD POOLS WILL SHIFT THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY REACHING THE KC METRO BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER KS ON THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION EVEN IF THE MCS MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA IN THE MORNING. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED STORMS. AM STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A HYDRO PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORTWAVE. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH 850MB WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MJ UPPER LVL TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. WEBBER THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE DAYS 4 TO 7 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ONE SUCH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT: HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY ON TARGET THIS AFTERNOON... TOPPING OUT IN THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS POPPED UP EARLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ALONG A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS BEEN DIFFLUENT TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC... AND THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HOLDING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAH CWA INTO THE EVENING. LAPS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER STILL INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH WITH A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD... ANY CELLS SHOULD GO UP AND DOWN QUICKLY. WILL HOLD ONTO A MENTION OF SCATTERED STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS EVENING. GROUND MAY HAVE DRIED SUFFICIENTLY TODAY TO MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL HAVE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE... ABOUT 68-70. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY THEN REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT STALLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS... PLACING NC IN A PATTERN OF INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE SE TO S FLOW. ALSO TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO 3-4 KM... AN INDICATOR OF GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND WILL PROBABLY NEED LIKELY POPS AT SOME POINT ONCE WE ARE BETTER ABLE TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD NARROW... WITH INITIAL LOWS GOING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 70-73 AND HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...AND AROUND 90 THURSDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -RHJ && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE TAF AREA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS UNTIL DARK. OTHERWISE CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. AFTER 09Z FRIDAY MORNING VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 5 MILES IN HAZE AND FOG. EXCEPT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FAY TO RWI 09Z TO 12Z. -RHJ && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...RHJ AVIATION...RHJ nc