SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 326 AM MST THU MAR 16 2000 ...WINTER STORM SYSTEM STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING... HEAVY SNOW HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS JUST AFTER WE CAME IN THE DOOR. SOME REPORTS HAVE COME IN WITH STORM TOTALS OF 6-10" OR MORE FOR PIKES PEAK AREA AND 10-12+" FOR WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SO FAR...ABOUT 2-6 INCHES PROBABLY FOR THE PUB AREA...FINALLY METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHERE JUXTAPOSED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW! STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO CALL MANY SPOTTERS. MID-CREW WILL TRY TO GATHER ADDITIONAL TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AFTER THE SUNRISE FOR THE MEDIA. DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE GATHERING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. TDA: CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION HAD VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST RUC HAS AN EXCELLENT BEAD ON THE SYSTEM. RUC TAKES SHORTWAVE INTO CENTRAL NM BY 15Z/16 THEN INTO SOUTHEASTER NM BY 18Z/16. PUB VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING WIND BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEW DEFORMATION CLOUD STRUCTURE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO/SOUTHWESTERN KS. 700- 500MB SHOWING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL/SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO AT LEAST UNTIL 15Z-16Z/16. LATEST PUB RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RETURNS. APPEARS NEXT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ZONE SETTING UP FOR 77/79/80/81. WITH SNOW STILL FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR CONTINUITY. HATE DROPPING SNOW ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS STILL SNOWING. CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OVERALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TRENDS ARE FOR VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. STILL SOME TYPICAL MODEL BIASES ON THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING FAIRLY STABLE(3-4 C/KM)...AND RELATIVELY DEEPER DRIER AIR MASS STILL PROGGED TO ENGULF CO...SO PRECIPITATION ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING LOOKS A GOOD BET. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE. FIRST WOULD THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...BUT IN THE PLAINS ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. COOLEST TEMPS...IN THE PLAINS...COULD BE NEAR CO/KS BORDER DUE TO POTENTIAL LATE CLEARING AND RELATIVELY DEEPER COLD AIR. TNGT: MORE TRANQUIL NIGHT. DAYSHIFT WAS CONCERNED ABOUT DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AND CERTAINLY STILL COULD OCCUR. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO REPLACE CURRENT SYSTEM TNGT IN RESPONSE TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVENT DEVELOPING. DEPENDS ON ACTUAL DEGREE OF SNOW MELT TDA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW GOOD DRYING(10- 20% RH) IN THE LOWER TROP WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10KTS DEVELOPING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TO COMBAT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MIGHT BE SHALLOW DENSE FOG?? IF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP...COULD BE SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE FOG/STRATUS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. WITH SO MANY IFS...PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON HITTING THE FOG HARD IN THE ZFP. WILL LET DAYSHIFT REFINE NEXT FORECAST. WITH A CLEAR SKY...SHOULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO JUST BELOW MOS IN AR RIVER VALLEY AS MAY BE NOT LOW ENOUGH...BUT SNOW MELT COULD INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS. FRI: STILL DEALING SOME MODEL CONTINUITY PROBLEMS. PACIFIC NORTHWEST "OPEN WAVE" AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY ON TIMING OF LONGWAVE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS... BUT THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. ETA/NGM TAKES IT INTO EAST CENTRAL UT/WEST CENTRAL CO... WHILE AVN IS MUCH STRONGER AND ALREADY INTO NORTHWESTERN CO. ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRECEDE UPPER SYSTEM. CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR SAWATCH RANGE AND POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WARMUP FOR PLAINS AND NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. CURRENT ZFP IN-LINE WITH CURRENT MOS AND WILL FOLLOW. EXTENDED: CURRENT 60-72HR AVN LOOKS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY'S 84-96HR MRF. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT BASIN DIPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST?? LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST 60-72HR AVN WOULD HAVE A CORRECT TREND... EXCEPT FOR SOME POSITION AND STRENGTH ISSUES. "IF" THE AVN 60-72HR VERIFIES...DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SYSTEM. QUALITY OF DEEP MOISTURE IS POOR...EVEN FOR THE "WATER-LOGGED" AVN. COULD BE A BORA WIND PATTERN FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT NOT REAL STRONG. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WORDING AND ADD "WINDY AT TIMES" ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FOR FRI NGT/SAT. NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF EFP. THANKS FOR THE COORD. CALLS DDC/ABQ! .PUB...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 77/79/80/81 UNTIL MID MORNING. METZE co SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 230 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000 SOUTHERN AND CNTRL LA AND SOUTHEAST TX REMAINS IN THE WARM SLOT AS CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC TROF IS DEFINING THE BNDRY BETWEEN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH NLY FLOW AT SFC EXPERIENCED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERLY IN ADV OF THE SFC TROF. SFC LOW OVR CNTRL TX WITH STALLED COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL TX INTO AR WITH PRECIP OVER RUNNING BNDRY INTO THE COLD SECTOR. SHARP DEMARCATION IN FRNTL BNDRY WITH TEMPS RANGING FM 75 TO 80 IN ADVANCE OF THE FRNTL BNDRY AND 38 TO 42 BEHIND THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. COLD FRNT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER LVL SUPPORT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TMRW. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THE TRIGGER FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE THE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. OVRNGHT STORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SE TX AND SOUTHERN LA TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THOUGH FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH FEATURES ARE IN PLACE THAT FEW STORMS TMRW MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BNDRY. AS FOR MDLS... WELL THEY INITIALIZED WELL... THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH ETA AND NGM HANGING TOGETHER WHILE AVN AND RUC GO THEIR OWN WAY. BELIEVE THAT UPR LVL CLOSED CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO EASTERN TX BY TMRW AFTN. AS A RESULT... STRONG FRNTL PUSH NOT IN PLACE AND THEREFORE FRNTL BNDRY BECOMES HUNG-UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TMRW AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRNT FOR FRIDAY EVE. OVERRUNING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONT PRECIP INTO FRIDAY EVE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY SAT MRNG AS UPR LVL LOW KICKS OFF TWRDS THE NE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. .LCH... LA...NONE TX...NONE PRELIM NUMBERS... BPT 61/73/52/70 3630 LCH 61/72/48/69 3630 LFT 61/73/52/68 2630 AEX 60/69/43/65 2630 K. KUYPER la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 230 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000 CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE GOING UP ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS TWO DIFFERENT AIR MASSES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE LADEN SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE TWO LIES A SHARP COLD FRONT WHICH ACCORDING TO MY ANALYSIS WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF HOT AND PRX TO WEST OF DFW DOWN TO NEAR JCT. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR KJCT WHICH HAS HELPED TO STALL THE FRONTS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR THE TIME BEING. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT NOT THE ACTUAL FRONT...WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR FROM JUST SOUTH OF TYR...SHV AND MLU. THIS TROUGH HAS HELPED TO SWITCH OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MODELS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR PROGRESSION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO EXTREME WEST/ SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE IS WITH THEIR QPF FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE STRANGEST OF ALL IS THE NGM WITH ITS LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA FOR FRIDAY YET NO QPF GENERATED ON 12Z FOUS OUTPUT. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE MODELS CONSISTENCY IN SLOWING THE SHORTWAVE DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN WHICH WOULD TEND TO LEAVE A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOMETHING ALL MODELS AGREE WITH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND TAPER POPS LOWER TOWARDS THE EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE GETS A KICK EASTWARD DUE TO POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT BELIEVE THIS WOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO LEAVE DAY PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MRF VERY INCONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13 SHV 53/59/47/60 3651 MLU 52/61/46/60 2552 TXK 48/56/45/58 4651 TYR 52/57/47/62 7741 LFK 57/63/49/66 6741 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1130 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000 THE APX 88D SHOWS DIMINISHING RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW 700/500 MB DPVA AFFECTING NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH 06Z AS A 500 MB TROUGH/VORT LOBE SLIDES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -14C TO -15C OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED GENERALLY UNDER 60 PERCENT BETWEEN 1000/850 MB OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE DUE TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL DIMINISH THE SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST LOWER TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. FOR TRAVERSE CITY TO MANISTEE AREA AND NORTHEAST LOWER FROM APN TO OSC...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE EFFECTS. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 825 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000 APX 88D SHOWING A BAND OF RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER THE STRAITS AND MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF 700/500 MB DPVA MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A 500 MB TROUGH/VORT LOBE MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWS 1000/850 MB MOISTURE TO REMAIN AROUND 60 TO 80 PERCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS PUSH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE NORTHERN LOWER FOR MOSTLY CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF M-72 AND FLURRIES SOUTH. .APX...NONE. SWR mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 924 AM EST THU MAR 16 2000 ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS... SOUNDING DATA... AND GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. SO... WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER. THE SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO WILL PROBABLY KEEP THOSE AREAS AS MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHWEST... WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC... AND WILL BE ESSENTIALLY N-NE... SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE CBL WILL WORK TO FURTHER REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE EXISTING FLURRIES TO THE NORTH... AND THE QPF FORECAST FROM THE 00Z 6KM ETA... FEEL FLURRIES ARE WORTH MENTIONING. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY... AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES THERE. ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 1000 AM. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 503 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000 SFC ANLYS AT 0900 UTC SHWS CD FNT THRU FCST AREA. 0600 UTC INITIAL RUC CROS-SECT DATA SHWS TOP OF FNTL SLOPE ARND 850 HPA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST ON TOP OF FNTL BNDRY WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP PCPN TOGETHER OVR SE PERIPHERY OF CWA. LATEST RUC KEEPS MENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR CNTL MO THRU 1800 UTC. ENVIRONMENT OVR THIS RGN STILL WRM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PCPN BUT FCST SNDG DATA STILL POINTING TWRDS COOLING OF LYR BY MIDDAY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL PCPN TDY IN THIS AREA AND WORDED FCST -RA MIXING WITH -SN AT TIMES. FTHR TO NW AREA COVERING 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF MKC IRK LN SCT LGT PCPN INDICATED BY 88-D. SFC OBS REPORTING -RA ATTM BUT WITH ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THINK THAT HEAVIER BURSTS OF PCPN THIS AM SHLD FALL AS -SN. KEEPING AND EYE ON DEFORMATION ZN OVR S CNTL KS. MODEL QPF DRAGS RGN OF PCPN ALG AND S OF MO RVR BUT MID TROPOSPHERIC CNVGNC OF Q-VECTORS INDICATES RMNS OF THIS DEFORMATION ZN MAY TRACK FTHR N PSBLY THRU MCI/STJ AND MV INTO MUCH OF N CNTL MO. MODELS APPR TO BE PICKING UP ON WEAK PHASING BET NRN/SRN BRANCHES AS MID/UPR TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FIELDS INDICATE LIFT OVR SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA THRU TDY. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THAT BOTH NGM/ETA IN NO HURRY TO SWEEP 3-4 G/KG SPEC HUMIDITIES OUT OF CWA KEPT POPS IN FCST ALL DAY THUR. IN XTRM NW MO WHERE DRIER AIR ALREADY NOSING INTO RGN REMOVED POPS FOR TDY BUT KEPT CLDY. DUE TO XPTD SLO ADVANCEMENT OF DEFORMATION ZN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLDS HANG IN MOST OF TNGT. CLD CVR SHLD KEEP TEMPS IN NEIGHBORHOOD OF FWC/FAN GUIDANCE TDY/TNGT. THEREFORE STAYED WITH CRNT TEMPS TDY OPENED RANGE UPWARD FOR TNGT'S MINS. DRY WX STILL LKS LIKE THE DEAL FOR ST PATTY'S DAY BUT LWR TROPOSPHERIC MSTR RETURNING WITH SE FLW LATE FRI NITE AND SAT COUPLED WITH FCST PROXIMITY OT RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF LIFTING JET DURING THE DAY SAT RE-INSERTED POPS FOR SAT. MADE LTL OR NO CHGS TO REST OF EFP. WILL HIT AM SPS HARD WITH CD TEMPS TNGT SINCE QUITE A BIT OF VEGETATION HAS COME OUT IN RECENT WEEKS DUE TO WRM WX. .EAX...NONE. BODNER mo FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1027 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000 FCST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS SLIGHT MAX TEMP CHANGES. RUC UPDATES SHOWING FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER LVL SFC CONVERGENCE AND 1000-700MB RH ALG A TROF SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE CWFA. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH THICKER MID LV CIGS ACRS THE SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WELL MODELLED BY RUC. CURRENT FCSTS INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY CONDS ACRS NRN ZONES...AND WITH SOME CU ALREADY EVIDENT IN PEMBINA CNTY...WILL EXPECT SCT-BKN CU FIELD LATER TDY. 12Z ETA INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL ON VORT CNTR IN SERN MAN...MVG JUST NORTH OF MN/ONT BDR THROUGH TDY. SO SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL INHIBIT TO MUCH BUILD UP. TEMPS DVL-GFK WARMING AHEAD OF MOS HEATING CURVE SO WILL BOOST FCST MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES IN NRN AND NWRN ZONES. .FGF...NONE. GUST nd SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 145 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000 COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO RACE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS. WX BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIKE STEPPING THROUGH A DOOR INTO WINTER. 11Z ABI 61F/47DWPT 19009KT...18Z 39F/37DWPT 2.5SM-RA 36019G28KT. AT 18Z FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ADM-NW OF MWL-SJT...THE EASTERN END OF THE LINE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS N TX. EXPECT THE WESTERN END OF THE LINE TO CONTINUE SOUTH. WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW NE OF JCT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF LOW SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SE. RUC AND GOES SOUNDERS INDICATING LI IN THIS SECTOR -7 TO -10 ATTM. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A SVR WATCH SHORTLY. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST LIFT TO SWEEP ACROSS SETX TONIGHT AS UPPER VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO SETX TONIGHT (PW INCREASE TO 1.1-1.2"). 500MB TEMPS A CHILLY -16 TO -18 ACROSS SETX AT 06Z. EXPECTING A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITH HAIL BEING A SERIOUS THREAT. MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT WINDSPEEDS ARE ONLY RUNNING 10-40 KNOTS PER ETA...AVN HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELD. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. LL WINDS ARE STRONGLY VEERING BUT ARE WEAK - LOWERING THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AS YOU CAN GUESS FROM DISC SO FAR WILL MENTION SVR OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. NEXT ISSUE IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SETX FRIDAY AS 850 WINDS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 18Z THEN BECOMING SW. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS SECOND VORT LOBE IN THE WINGS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN WITH ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. 850 FRONT NEARS THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING BUT CAA WILL DROPPED OFF. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR MARINE...WILL LOWER THE WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LATEST MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. .KHGX...NONE 45/40 PRELIMS CLL RE 052/059 046/065 046 773 IAH RE 054/063 050/065 049 663 GLS RE 063/065 057/067 059 554 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1125 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000 WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON THE UPDATE. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. 15Z RUC/12 ETA SHOWED BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 85H OCCURRING FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE 85H FREEZING LINE SLOWLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SLOW TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA ATTM. ELSEWHERE...85H-50H LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85H WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OF ALBUQUERQUE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ETA WHICH INDICATED 50H-30H LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AREA. RADAR SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS AS WELL AS WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOVE EAST. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND WILL MAKE CORRESPONDING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT READINGS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR ALL SOUTH PLAINS ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TAPER THEM FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. FRIONA/TULIA 034/022/054/034 2-0 CHILDRESS 035/026/052/035 +31 BROWNFIELD 039/026/057/038 310 LUBBOCK 036/025/056/036 310 ASPERMONT 038/030/055/040 531 .LBB...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 215 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT S/W ACROSS N CNTRL TX ASSOC WITH STRONG 28 VORT WHICH IS KICKING OFF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS E TX. RUC SHOWS S/W THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WAVE THOUGH NGM IS BRINGING STRONGER SYS A BIT FURTHER S THAN THE ETA...AND ETA HAS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PROGD WITH THE NEXT SYS AND AVN THE MOST. NGM POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE LOOK TOO LOW SAT CONSIDERING UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES TRACKING OFF THE NE CST WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LYR WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE. WILL SEE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG NE-E SFC-LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SSW MOIST FLOW AT 850 MB AHEAD OF NEXT S/W. FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOSITURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EARLY THIS A.M. FOLLOWED BY SKIES BECMG PTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SRN ZONES WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN. SAT...WILL BUMP UP NGM POPS UP A BIT ON SAT WITH UPPER S/W MOVING IN AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA. MAY LIMIT TSTM CHCS TO FL ZONES BUT WILL WAIT ON SWODY2 FOR FINAL CALL ON THAT ONE...AS NGM/ETA SFC LIS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GA ZONES WITH THE "WEDGE" DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND WILL ACCEPT. MARINE: MODELS FCST WINDS TO DROP OFF TODAY BUT CURRENT BUOY WINDS BORDERING ON SMALL CRAFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 3 AND 4 AM BUOY OBS. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED: AVN FORECASTING WET SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHORTER RANGE MODELS. I KNOW ITS STILL FAR OFF...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG (SVR?) TSTMS SUNDAY IF LATEST AVN FCST PANS OUT. WILL WAIT ON NEW MRF FOR UPDTS TO MON AND TUE...IF ANY. PRELIM TEMPS & POPS... TLH 79 53 71 52 -145 PFN 75 56 71 54 -156 DHN 74 51 66 50 -156 ABY 75 50 64 49 -156 VLD 80 52 69 50 -145 TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 315 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH EASTERN WV... JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. KLWX INDICATING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MD.. WITH MORE SHOWERS ORGANIZING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AT TIME.. PER KFCX AND KRLX RADARS. 00Z ETA AND NGM HAD FRONT TIMED WELL AT 06Z... AND 06Z RUC ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND INDICATE AN ABRUPT END TO THE PRECIP SHORTLY AFTER. VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.. AND ETA/NGM BOTH INDICATE STRONG DRYING AT ALL LEVELS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY... BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE DRY. CLEARING LINE ON IR/FOG LOOPS RUNS FROM SW ONTARIO THROUGH NW OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA.... MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. APPROACH OF DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY.. AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH HIGH WORKING INTO AREA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S... WHILE CURRENT READINGS OVER OUR CWA ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WILL MENTION AN EARLY AM HIGH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 08Z READINGS.. BUT EXPECT A HEALTHY DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WITH SOME SUN... TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OUT THIS AFTERNOON. VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 10 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT... BUT STILL PLAN TO UNDERCUT FWC TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO BOTH TEMPS AND PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. AVN AND YESTERDAY'S MRF BOTH INDICATE A MOIST SE FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MENTION INCREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT... AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUN. WILL ALSO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AS SYSTEM OVER SE US MOVES CLOSER AND WE REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION/UPSLOPE PATTERN. HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN LATER PERIODS.. IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MRF AND NCEP GUIDANCE. .LWX...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGRAF! md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1015 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000 FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OR 06Z ETA...SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS INTO W CENTRAL. FORECAST ALSO HAS MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATES BASED ON CLOUDS AND LATEST RUC MODEL. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1015 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000 RADAR AND SURFACE DATA COMBINED WITH RUC FORECAST INDICATE THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DURING THE TRANSISTION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES KEPT THE SAME. REDUCED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR FRIDAY. REST UNCHANGED. ...GIORDANO .PBZ... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 900 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000 THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END BEFORE 1000 PM. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE RUC/S FORECAST OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PLAN TO REMOVE SEVERE TSTM WATCH HEADLINE IN THE E PART AND CONFINE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BEFORE 300 AM. .CAE...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 844 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000 BREAK IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE E AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE W BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT SCT TSTMS WITH THIS NEXT SURGE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH FOR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BUT MESO-ETA AND RUC SHOW AREA OF PVA THAT SHOULD BE THRU CWA BY 09Z WITH MOST OF CWA DRYING AND COOLING FRI. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER N MTNS FRI. CURRENT ZONES LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR...IF ANY...ADJUSTMENTS. .GSP...NONE. RB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1035 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS HI PRES OVR SRN ONTARIO WITH RDG AXIS STRETCHING ACRS CWA. VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES RESIDUAL SCT LK SC IN NELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI FM MQT EWD WITH APX SDNG SHOWING HIER LLVL MSTR BLO INVRN HGT AT H825. GRB SDNG A BIT DRIER IN LLVLS. SFC HI UNDER EXPANSIVE UPR RDG ACRS SCNTRL CAN E OF PAC SHRTWV MOVG THRU SW CAN. HUGE 12HR H3-5 HGT RISES WITHIN RDG AXIS INDICATE THIS SYS BLDG WITH CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/WAD AS ARCTIC AIR ACRS ERN CAN EVACUATING EWD IN STRG SLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC-H85 RDG AXIS. CONSIDERABLE HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH OVRRNG HAS MOVD AS FAR E AS H5 RDG AXIS IN NCNTRL MN...BUT LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLD HAS TENDED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN RDG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS RDG AXIS MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON CWA TDAY. AS UPR RDG SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD BY THIS AFTN INTO CWA...XPCT HI CLD TO GRDLY OVRSPRD CWA W-E BUT NOT TO REACH ERN ZNS UNTIL LATE. WITH SFC RDG IN PLACE MOST OF DAY...RUC SHOWS SFC-H85 WAD AFFECTING ONLY WRN ZNS AFTR 21Z. BUT STRG SUBSIDENCE FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS 2-3C. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHUD ALSO DSPT ANY LINGERING LK CLD...BUT XPCT SOME DIURNAL CU OVR ECNTRL ZNS INTO AFTN GIVEN RATHER MOIST LLVL APX SDNG. 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS LTL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT AND DRY AIR WITHIN LGT ACYC FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NO LOW CLD OVR WRN CWA AFTR ANY LINGERING LK SC DSPTS THERE. NEEDED TO ADD ABOUT 12C ON TO H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM YDAY FOR HI TEMP. SINCE RUC SHOWING SUBSIDENCE WRMG H85 TEMPS TO ARND -12C TDAY... XPCT MAX TO REACH LO 30S MOST ZNS. IWD WL BE A BIT WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE SELY FLOW. 06Z MESOETA PERSISTS IN FCSTG SSWLY 45-50KT H85 WNDS INTO LK SUP OVRNGT...SO HAVE KEPT GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP. .MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 600 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 UPDATE IS IN ORDER WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BREAKING OVR KEWEENAW AND INVADING MOST OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ATTM. IR SAT AND METARS SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON OVR ERN UPR MI NOW ADVANCING INTO SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. BELIEVE LK CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THERMAL TROF EVADES WHICH IS 18Z PER RUC. THEREFORE WL ADD MORNING CLOUD WORDING. MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC HIGH TO NORTH HAS CALMED WINDS WHICH LIMITS ANY FLOW OVR LK TO HELP SUSTAIN CLOUDS. IN ADDITION EARLIER QVECTOR FORCING IS OFF TO EAST. THUS...SUN FADING BEHIND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON NOW WL BE THE STORY. .MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 940 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000 COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS FROM CAE EASTWARD WERE IN THE 50S AT 13Z AND APPROACHING THE 40S OVER EXTREME NW SC. 12Z SOUNDINGS EVEN OVER CHS AND GSO SHOW W TO NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS TO 30 KTS AT CHS BLO 900 MB. THE LATEST RUC PUSHES FRONTAL TROUGH THRU THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW LAKE WINDS ADVSY CRITERIA...ALTHO WILL PUT NW 15-20 AND GUSTY. PATCHY SC CLOUDS OVER THE CWA SHOULD NOT PREVENT PRETTY GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. 850 CAA KICKS IN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 40S LOOK GOOD FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. .CAE...NONE. BLP sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1042 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 UPDATED ZONE FCSTS MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS CNTL AND N CNTL SD. 16Z MSAS ANALYIS SHOWS TIGHT GRADIENT...ABOUT 16 MB...ACROSS CWA. WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING EAST...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING CNTL AND N CNTL BY AROUND NOON. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MCPHERSON-EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE AND EAST THROUGH TODAY. WINDS NOW PICKING UP ACROSS THE EAST...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KTS AT ABR...AND EXPECT AREAS EAST TO FOLLOW SUIT BY EARLY AFTN. RUC AND ETA 925 WINDS 35-40 KTS...AND WITH SUN OVER E 1/2 OF CWA...THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN IN LINE WITH LATEST ROUND OF FLP AND NEW FWC GUIDANCE. WITH CLOUD COVER ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION 850 AND 925 MB...THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM MCPHERSON-EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE...AND EAST THROUGH W CNTL MN THROUGH TODAY. LORENS sd SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 940 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000 LATEST RUC INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTG ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU 21Z..SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THRU THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SFC GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND VAD WNDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE IN THE LOWER COUPLE THOUSAND FEET SO WILL LOWER WINDS A CAT AND DROP THE CAUTION FOR LAKES. LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO CREEP BACK NWWD OVER THE WRN CWA AND MAY HAVE TO CHANGE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS THEY ADVANCE. APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF FROM THE NW SHOULD HELP KICK OUT THE UPR LOW OVER N TX/OK..BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME EVER LEAVING AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT VIEW OFF THE ETA. .EWX...NONE. 01/19 tx SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 920 AM MST FRI MAR 17 2000 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DRY...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND MOST OTHER PLACES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA OR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DISCUSSION... SOUNDINGS CONTINUED DRY AT 12Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT RH INCREASES BTWN 20K AND 30K...MNLY ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS DUE TO TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NW AT 12Z. RUC AND ETA SIMILAR ON INITIAL HEIGHTS AND BOTH SHOW MEAGER RH ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING. NGM BEST RH AT 700MB LATE TODAY REMAINS ALONG A GLOBE-DOUGLAS LN AND DCREASES BY MDNIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS SFC WINDS. 12Z DATA IS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN GRADIENT...BUT ONLY FOR NRN PORTIONS OF AZ AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT AFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS ALONG THE RIVER AND WESTWARD...BLH ALREADY AT 15KTS. WINDS TO KEEP BLOWING TONIGHT...BUT A QUICK COMPARISON BTWN OLD AND NEW 850 WINDS FOR 12Z SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS FOR LOWER COLORADO RVR AREA...WITH "CORE" STILL REMAINING BTWN BLYTHE AND THERMAL FOR 12Z SATURDAY. MOS SFC SPEEDS ALSO BACKING OFF A BIT FOR YUMA AND PHX. ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE ON 500MB HGTS THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BY SUNDAY MRNG NGM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM EDGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LVL RH FOR EARLY NEXT WK. NO UPDATES. SIPPLE N az