FXUS64 KHGX 081547
AFDHOU

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2003

WHILE THE FOG HAS LIFTED...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH. HOWEVER 
WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LOCAL SOUNDINGS. THE 
DEEP AND VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS AS 
THE STRONG CAP KEEPS THE REGION RELATIVELY POP FREE. THAT BEING SAID 
HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A SMALL CHC 
OF TSRA FOR OUR FAR NERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN. PROGGED MOVEMENT OF A 
STRONG S/W OVER NC TEXAS APPEARS TO CLIP PARTS OF THE FA AS IT RACES 
EWD. THE MAIN BUGABOO FOR PCPN MAY BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...DESPITE 
THE FORECASTED LAPSE RATES/LEVEL OF DESTABILIZATION. SO FOR NOW WILL 
LIKELY KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE MAIN CHANGES FOR 
THE UPDATE WILL BE TO CLEAN UP THE FOG WORDING FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. 
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE ZONES WILL BE LEFT AS IS. A QUICK PEEK AT 
THE INCOMING NUMBERS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOWISH POPS FOR 
TONIGHT ARE STILL VALID. 41/45

.HGX...NONE.

PREVIOUS PRELIMS...
CLL BE 075/055 076/052 076 022
IAH BE 075/055 076/052 076 022
GLS BE 068/061 070/060 070 022

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUD DECK CONTAINING SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY 
NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS AS THE INITIAL BOUNDARY MOVES 
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH. WILL TAKE A CHANCE AND PLAN ON CANCELING 
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT PACKAGE ISSUANCE TIME. WILL BE CURIOUS 
WHAT THE NEXT CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST DOES WITH 
THE VISIBILITIES. ANY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND SKIES 
WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ALLOW 
FOR SOME RAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE ACTIVE JET OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH MONDAY IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD 
FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. BY TUESDAY...MODEL 
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE EXITING SUBTROPICAL JET 
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE 
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES 
OFF TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON A 
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS 
LEAVES FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS RATHER LOW FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THANKS TO THE COAST GUARD VTS FOR THEIR HELP WITH BAY AREA 
VISIBILITIES. 42/46