000 FGUS72 KJAX 060412 ESFJAX FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125- GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-280000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1215 AM EST WED JUN 06 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA... SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL STORM BARRY BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE JACKSONVILLE CWA ON JUNE 2ND THROUGH THE 3RD. PERSISTENT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNT...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 15 TO 18 INCHES OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO END LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. LONG TERM DROUGHT EFFECTS STILL PERSIST. EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS RAGING AND PERSISTENT WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE JACKSONVILLE CWA. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2007 ALSO CONTINUE TO WORSEN AT ALL OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES. SITES SUCH AS LIVE OAK FLORIDA AND ALMA GEORGIA NOW HAVE RAINFALL DEPARTURES OVER 10 INCHES FOR 2007 WITH SITES SUCH AS HOMERVILLE GEORGIA AND SAINT SIMONS ISLAND GEORGIA APPROACHING THE 10 INCH DEPARTURE MARK AS WELL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30 YEAR NORMALS... ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR 2007 FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MAY 27TH. STATION OBSERVED 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL JACKSONVILLE FL 9.07 16.84 -7.77 54 YEAR 2007 GAINESVILLE FL 10.34 16.61 -6.27 62 YEAR 2007 LAKE CITY FL 9.85 17.71 -7.86 55 YEAR 2007 GLEN ST MARY FL 8.64 17.49 -8.85 49 YEAR 2007 LIVE OAK FL 8.01 18.93 -10.92 42 YEAR 2007 FEDERAL POINT FL 10.30 15.35 -5.05 67 YEAR 2007 ST SIMONS GA 6.58 16.28 -9.70 40 YEAR 2007 ALMA GA 7.39 19.23 -11.84 38 YEAR 2007 WAYCROSS GA 8.72 17.65 -8.93 49 YEAR 2007 HOMERVILLE GA 9.92 19.91 -9.99 50 YEAR 2007 FOLKSTON GA 8.97 17.08 -8.11 53 YEAR 2007 BRUNSWICK GA 8.46 16.12 -7.66 53 YEAR 2007 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. OF FIVE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES INCLUDING JAX...GNV...AMG...SSI...AND CRG...DEFICITS RANGED FROM 2.17 INCHES AT SAINT SIMONS ISLAND TO 2.67 INCHES AT ALMA GEORGIA. THE GREATEST ONE DAY RAINFALL TOTAL RECORDED WAS 0.54 INCHES AT GAINESVILLE ON MAY 17TH ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASED TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH...ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TROPICAL STORM BARRY BROUGHT SOME RECOVERY IN THE FIRST PART OF JUNE. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. STREAMFLOWS HAVE MADE SOME RECOVERY WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY. FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...OF 9 RANKED USGS SITES...5 ARE RUNNING AT 15% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. THE REMAINDER ARE 50 TO 60% OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...THREE QUARTERS OF THE RANKED SITES ARE RUNNING AT LESS THAN 25% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WHILE THE REMAINDER ARE RUNNING AT 50 TO 60% OF NORMAL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES ARE STILL BURNING IN THE JACKSONVILLE CWA. CAUSES RANGE FROM DOWNED POWER LINES TO LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ARSON. AS OF JUNE 4TH...THESE ARE THE FIRES AND ACRES BURNED IN THE JACKSONVILLE CWA: BIG TURNAROUND COMPLEX, GA...402,500 BUGABOO SCRUB, GA...5,600 SWEAT FARM ROAD, GA...82,050 DAIRY ROAD, FL...15,000 FLORIDA BUGABOO...109,000 THE FLORIDA BUGABOO FIRE IS NOW CONTAINED. THE DAIRY ROAD FIRE...SWEAT FARM ROAD...AND GEORGIA BUGABOO SCRUB FIRES ARE OVER 90% CONTAINED. FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO CONTAIN THE REMAINDER. RESIDENTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE FIRES ARE ADVISED TO HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. PLUMES FROM THE WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND MAKE FOR POOR AIR QUALITY DOWNWIND OF THE WILDFIRES ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST IN GEORGIA. WITH EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS AND A BELOW NORMAL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING SEASON...RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REDUCE FIRE RISKS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. REMOVE YARD DEBRIS AND CLEAR GUTTERS. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN USING BURNING ITEMS OUTDOORS. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... CROP MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS CATEGORIZED BY NOAA/USDA AS EXCESSIVELY DRY. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ALSO INDICATES THAT SOIL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. IN GEORGIA...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO HAMPER PLANTING AND PASTURE ESTABLISHMENT OR RENOVATION. CROPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EMERGE...AND THOSE THAT DO SUFFER FROM EXTREME DROUGHT STRESS. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS HAVE CONTINUED CULLING THEIR HERDS DUE TO LACK OF HAY AND GRAZING. IN FLORIDA...WINDY WEATHER HAS ACCELERATED THE DEHYDRATION OF ALREADY DRY TREES. RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO ASSIST TREES IN MAINTAINING MOISTURE FOR NEXT YEARS CROP. CITRUS GROWTH HAS BEEN SEVERELY AFFECTED. PASTURE FEED IS 80% VERY POOR TO POOR. CATTLE CONDITION IS 70% VERY POOR TO POOR. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (NEXT 10 DAYS)... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SEASONAL OUTLOOK... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE MONTHS OF MAY THROUGH JULY CALLS FOR A GREATER CHANGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A NEAR EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SINCE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF INCREASED RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA...IT IS LIKELY THAT PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY MAY BRING NEEDED RAINFALL. ALSO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS THAT WEAK LA NINA OR ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE PACIFIC THIS SUMMER...WHICH DOES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THE LATE SUMMER INTO THE EARLY FALL MONTHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX...OR VISIT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. $$ HURLBUT/MCALLISTER/ENYEDI