National Situation Update: Monday, May 14, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Hazards for the Week
From May 14 - 16, locally heavy rain is possible across the central and southern Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.
On May 14, severe weather is possible across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
River flooding continues across South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri; locally heavy rain would prolong flooding.
Large wildfires continue across southeast Georgia and north Florida.
Severe drought persists for southern California, Wyoming, Southwest, central high Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast; little or no improvement is expected.
National Weather Forecast
Scattered thunderstorms for
Midwest/South
Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the northern Great Lakes to the Great Plains Monday. A few severe storms are likely over east-central Minnesota, Wisconsin and the western U.P. of Michigan. Isolated storms are possible from southern Minnesota southwestward to western Nebraska.
By Tuesday, heavy rains may affect parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa.
South
Scattered heavy rain and storms are likely over the Florida Peninsula.
Widely scattered showers and storms may appear along the eastern and central Gulf Coast as well as parts of eastern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Storms are also possible over the interior portions of Mississippi and Alabama.
West
A few showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Montana to New Mexico Monday while the remainder of the region stays dry.
Northeast
Scattered showers may move into western New York or northwest Pennsylvania toward sunset. (NWS, Media Sources)
Flood Waters Receding in Midwest
Flooding of the James, Little Sioux, Iowa, Platte, and Missouri Rivers will continue and slowly recede. However, locally heavy rainfall could aggravate ongoing river flooding and trigger additional flooding. State National Guard released from flood duties in Missouri. In South Dakota, 31 personnel continue to provide flood response. (NOAA, NWS, Region VIII)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Florida/Georgia Wildfires
Bugaboo Scrub Fire (Georgia): Fire managers report that the fire lines constructed in recent days are holding Sunday afternoon. The fire is 3-1/2 miles from Fargo, Georgia at it closest point but has not crossed Hwy 177, Perimeter or Council Roads. The fire is moving very slowly northward. An increase in smoke is possible. Structure protection is continuing around homes in the Fargo and Reeves Landing area.
Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia): The Bugaboo Scrub fire has moved off Federal wilderness and refuge areas and now entering private and industry land in Georgia. This portion of the Bugaboo Fire is located 5 miles east of Fargo, Georgia.
Florida Bugaboo Wildfire: As of Sunday morning, the communities of Taylor, Moccasin Circle, Five Points, Deep Creek, Lake City, Water Town and Benton are threatened within 12 to 24 hours. Approximately 17,000 new acres were reported on 5/12. The fire is located west of Taylor, Florida.
Acreage Update: Totals for Bugaboo: 233, 718 acres; Bugaboo Scrub (Georgia): 131,718 acres; Florida Bugaboo Wildfire: 102,000 acres.
The Florida EOC is fully activated. Florida NG is providing 84 personnel for support of wildfire response. The State reports that 225 wildfires are actively burning in 57 of the 67 Florida counties, affecting approximately 163,000+ acres statewide. Burn bans are in effect in several counties. To date, a total of 6 homes have been destroyed, 6 homes have major damage and 13 have minor damage for a total of 25 affected. Currently, one shelter is open with a population of 13.
Georgia National Guard is providing 42 personnel in support of wildfires operations in southeast GA. Currently, 41 wildfires are active in Georgia on 249,102 acres.
In the past two months, Florida and Georgia have requested and been granted four Fire Management Assistance Grants each, for active wildfires within the states. (SACC, FEMA Region IV)
Catalina Island Fire
The Catalina Island fire was at 4,200 acres and 69% contained. The fire is expected to be fully contained by May 16. There is approximately 660 fire personnel on-scene.
One residential and 6 other buildings were destroyed or damaged. Island residents are being allowed to return to their homes.
The US Navy support to this incident has ended and the Incident Team is now working with commercial barge operators to transport equipment to the mainland. (Region IX)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean: An area of low pressure, the remnant of subtropical storm Andrea, is centered about 250 miles east of Daytona Beach Florida, moving east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has not become any better organized, and is currently accompanied only by a small area of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Although no significant development of this system is expected, only a small increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. Continued movement away from the southeastern United States is expected during the next 24 hours.
Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.
Western Pacific: No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
An earthquake with a magnitude of 3.0, depth of 11 miles, was reported 23 miles WNW of Los Angeles, California, on Sunday, 5:54 pm ET. Other activity in the last 24 hours, seven earthquakes in Alaska with magnitudes of 3.0 to 4.9. No reports of damage. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
On May 11 the State of Kansas requested an additional joint FEMA/state PDA for both IA and PA for twelve additional counties. PDAs will commence on Monday, May 14.
South Dakota PDAs for IA in 13 counties should be complete by May 14. PA PDAs will begin on May 15. (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5) Initial attack activity: 103 (Light); New large fires: 3; Large fires contained: 1; Uncontained large fires: 26; Type 1 IMTs committed: 5.
Disaster Declaration Activity
On May 11 the State of Kansas requested an additional joint FEMA/state PDA for both IA and PA for twelve additional counties. PDAs will commence on Monday, May 14.
South Dakota PDAs for IA in 13 counties should be complete by May 14. PA PDAs will begin on May 15.(FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 14-May-2007 09:42:31 EDT