000
FGUS73 KAPX 102049
ESFAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-
097-101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-111200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...INCREASED FLOOD THREAT STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNOFF FROM BOTH THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 
RISES ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE 
THAT...BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MOST RIVERS WILL REMAIN 
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER...IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS END UP HIGHER THAN 
FORECAST...OR SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS MORE EXTENSIVE...THEN THE THREAT 
FOR FLOODING BECOMES MORE LIKELY. 

IN ADDITION...THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN 
INCREASED ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS. BLOCKAGES DUE TO ICE JAMS 
FORMING WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT...BOTH UPSTREAM OF THE 
JAM DUE TO BACKWATER FLOODING...AND DOWNSTREAM WHERE THE POTENTIAL 
FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES IF THE JAM BREAKS SUDDENLY WITH A 
CORRESPONDING FAST RELEASE OF WATER.

PERSONS LIVING OR WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  BE SURE TO
MONITOR CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR SELECT GAGING STATIONS CAN BE FOUND
ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD WEB SITE AT THE FOLLOWING 
ADDRESS:  

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
CLICK ON THE LINK FOR "RIVERS & LAKES AHPS".

$$

SMITH