FXUS64 KOUN 071535
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT SUN SEP  7 2003

A RATHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ADVANCING STEADILY EAST 
TOWARD OKLAHOMA.  A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED 
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS ALSO TRAVELING TOWARD THE EAST.  THE 
GENERAL TREND SO FAR THIS MORNING IS FOR STORMS TO DWINDLE AND DIE 
AS THEY APPROACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PANHANDLE REGION.  THIS IS 
DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOW- AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS EAST OF 
THE PANHANDLES.  THE MORNING MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND 
NORTH TEXAS QUITE DRY AND SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HAVING LITTLE 
SUCCESS IN DEVELOPING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BEYOND PERHAPS THE 
FIRST ROW OF WESTERN COUNTIES.  WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALONG OUR 
BORDER WITH THE PANHANDLES... BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST AS IS.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

23 = CMS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
208 AM CDT SUN SEP  7 2003

A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ADDED TO THE NEW FORECAST 
THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE WEST DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE 
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND MID-CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN OK. 
TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. LOW POPS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY 
EAST THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN FIFTH OF OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH 
TX. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVING AROUND THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX LATER TONIGHT MAY ENHANCE LIFT IN 
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK AS WELL. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
LINGER THROUGH OK IN WEAK FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW POPS 
CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL IN THE WEST AS LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. 

OTHER AREAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RAINLESS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT 
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL AFFECT AT 
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OK. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR 
RAIN CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BASED 
ON EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 9

OKC  86 60 87 64 / 00 00 00 00 
HBR  86 61 87 65 / 10 20 20 10 
SPS  88 61 88 65 / 00 00 00 10 
GAG  86 60 84 63 / 20 20 20 20 
PNC  86 60 86 63 / 00 00 00 10 
DUA  87 62 88 64 / 00 00 00 00 

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE