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National Situation Update: Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  Strong, gusty winds will whip over the Northeast tomorrow in the wake of a polar cold front. Peak gusts of 50 or 60 mph, especially from Pennsylvania southward, aren’t out of the question. The blustery winds will be accompanied by snow or snow showers in many interior locations. At some spots in the West Virginia mountains, extreme northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York, localized snowfalls could approach a foot. From northern Pennsylvania and New York state into New England, a dusting to a few inches of snow are possible as a storm center cranks up off the eastern New England coast.

Midwest:  Strong, blustery northwest winds will continue from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley tomorrow in the wake of today's cold front. Southwesterly winds will begin to kick up over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as mild air makes a return. Snow showers and flurries, including some lake-effect snows, will fly over Michigan, parts of Indiana, Ohio and eastern Kentucky. Sunny weather will grace the Great Plains.

South:  Dry weather will dominate the South tomorrow. Isolated showers or sprinkles could drag across the southern tip of Florida during the morning; a few snow showers or flurries might dust the higher Appalachians; and a stray shower or two could sneak into West Texas. Gusty winds will prevail in the Deep South following the passage of a dry cold front.

West:  Wet weather will assault the West from two different directions tomorrow. A Pacific front will carry rain (and mountain snow) back into western Washington, western Oregon and northwest California. Farther south, an upper-air low from Baja California will spin showers and mountain snow into the Southwest, specifically Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah and southern Colorado. Phoenix stands a decent chance of ending its long rainless spell.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Last Year Was Warmest In Century

Last year was the warmest in a century, nosing out 1998, a federal analysis concludes.

Researchers calculated that 2005 produced the highest annual average surface temperature worldwide since instrument recordings began in the late 1800s, said James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.  The result confirms a prediction the institute made in December.

In a telephone interview, Hansen said the analysis estimated temperatures in the Arctic from nearby weather stations because no direct data were available. More important, he said, is that 2005 reached the warmth of 1998 without help of the "El Nino of the century" that pushed temperatures up in 1998.

Over the past 30 years, Earth has warmed a bit more than 1 degree in total, making it about the warmest it's been in 10,000 years, Hansen said. He blamed a buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.  Jay Lawrimore of the federal government's National Climatic Data Center said his own center's current data suggest 2005 came in a close second to 1998, in part because of how the Arctic was factored in. But he said a forthcoming analysis "will likely show that 2005 is slightly warmer than 1998."  (NOAA/NCDC, Media Sources)

Oklahoma Requests Wildfire Disaster Declaration Be Expanded

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) has requested 14 additional counties be made eligible for Individual Assistance under the Major Disaster Declaration for wildfire damages.

The state’s request for add-on counties comes after joint damage assessment teams from FEMA, the Small Business Administration (SBA), OEM and local emergency management departments completed work in the identified 14 counties finding 268 homes damaged due to the wildfires. Of those, 64 were destroyed, eight had major damage, 167 had minor damage and 29 were affected.

Statewide, a total of 786 homes have been damaged by wildfires. Homes with major damage include those in need of heavy repairs to the exterior of the home. Minor damages are primarily interior including those to the electrical system. The affected category identifies homes mainly with smoke damage. As additional homes are destroyed or damaged in wildfires, more damage assessments will be completed.

The state has been experiencing a slight respite from the extreme wildfire activity. This down time has allowed firefighting resources a much-needed chance to rest and prepare for the continuing winter fire season. While the weather has moderated a little during the past few days, it is important to remember that the vegetation throughout the state has been cured by the drought and remains very easy to ignite.

The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) remains activated and continues to work in conjunction with the Incident  Command Post (ICP) to support local fire departments and other first responders battling wildfires across Oklahoma.  Since Dec. 27, the EOC has received wildfire reports from 43 of the state’s 77 counties.  (OK OEM)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A light earthquake occurred at 2:40 am EST on Wednesday, January 25, 2006. The magnitude 4.1 event has been located in Kenai Peninsula approximately 85 miles SW of Anchorage.  The magnitude was such that a tsunami will not be generated.  There have been no reports of damages or injuries and no requests for Federal assistance.. (United StatesGeological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level II – One region of the country is experiencing high fire danger. Wildland fire activity is occurring, and there is a potential for escapes to larger fires.

Current situation:  Initial attack activity was light. One new large fire was reported in the Southern California Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Nebraska and South Dakota.

California:  Plunge (San Bernardino National Forest): 400 acres at an unknown percent contained. The fire is burning eight miles northeast of San Bernardino. High winds pushed the fire toward residences of East Highland

Oklahoma:  Eastern Oklahoma IA (Oklahoma State): 123,331 acres at an unknown percent contained. An Oklahoma State Type 2 Incident Management Team (Smith) is assisting local, federal, and state jurisdictions in managing fires and initial attack in Oklahoma. Two new fires were reported totaling ten acres burned.

Texas:  North Central Texas (Texas Forest Service): 23,341 acres at an unknown percent contained. A Unified Command between a Florida State Type 2 Team (Holman) and a Texas State Type 2 Incident Commander (Hannemann) is in Granbury, Texas. The Unified Command is assisting local jurisdictions in managing existing fires and initial attack within the 220,000 square mile West Zone fire management response area. No new fires were reported.

East Texas (Texas Forest Service): 12,573 acres at an unknown percent contained. A Texas State Type 2 Incident Management Team (Rose) is assigned to assist local dispatch zones in managing existing fires and initial attack in east Texas. No new information was reported.  (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)