FXUS61 KALY 040903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EST SAT DEC 4 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SKIES SKC TO PRTLY CLDY ACRS 
BULK OF FA AS LAKE EFFECT HAS ENDED. AS A RSLT TMPS HAV FALLEN 
RAPIDLY WITH RDGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A FEW LCTNS IN WRN 
ADIRONDACKS MAY DROP BLW 10 BFR DAYBREAK. FOR TDY A RDG OF HIGH PRES 
WL BUILD FM THE TN VLY NE INTO OUR RGN GIVING US MSTLY SUNNY CNDTNS 
XCPT FOR CLDS INCRG DURG THE AFT N AND W AS FST MOVG CLIPPER SYS 
MOVS INTO ERN CAN AND DRAGS A CDFNT INTO ERN GRTLKS BY 00Z. SNOW WL 
BRK OUT AHD OF THE FNT BUT BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS FM THE MHWK 
VLY N. ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHLD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SRN 
ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE 
TONIGHT. CDFNT WL PUSH THRU FA OVRNGHT AND ANOTHER RDG OF 
HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN ON SUN THIS TIME FM SRN CAN. SOM MINOR LAKE 
EFFECT MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE SUN MRNG ACRS NRN AND WRN ZONES WITH 
INCRG SUN DURG THE DAY. AS FOR TMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TDY...20S 
TNGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S ON SUN. WNDS WL INCREASE THIS AFT AND 
RMN UP THRU ERLY SUN AFT WITH HIGHEST SUSTAINED WNDS AND GUSTS ACRS 
NRN HIGHER TRRN.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A VRY COLD NIGHT SUN NGHT 
WITH SOM LCTNS IN WRN ADIRONDACKS WELL BLW 10 DEG...SRN AREAS WL HAV 
THEIR LOWS HALTED FM FALLING TOO LOW BY INCRG CLDS SCND HLF OF THE 
NGHT. VRY DFFCLT FCST FOR ERLY NXT WEEK. EASIER PART OF THE FCST IS 
PRE-WRMFNTL AREA OF PCPN WHICH WL OVERSPREAD THE RGN LATE SUNDAY 
NGHT AND MON. QPF AMTS LOW...GNRLY FIVE TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS AND 
PCPN TYPE THRU ERLY MON AFT SHLD BE SNOW. AFT THIS PD LCTN OF WRMFNT 
AND THICKNESS VALUES COULD SUPPORT ALMOST ANY PCPN TYPE DEPENDING ON 
MDL CHOSEN. STG WAA WL TAKE PLC MON AFT INTO ERLY TUE AND QSTN IS WL 
ENOUGH COLD AIR BE DISPLACED TO HAV A QUICK TRANSITION FM SNOW TO 
RAIN. SINCE AIRMASS MON MRNG WL BE VRY COLD TO START THERE WL MORE 
THAN LIKELY BE SOM MIXED PCPN BY LATE MON OR MON NGHT. MDL SNDG AT 
KALB OFF GFS AT THIS POINT WLD SUPPORT SNOW ON MON WITH SOM SLEET 
MIXED IN ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ALL RAIN BY TUE MRNG. WL AT THIS 
POINT CALL FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT 
WITH TEMPS RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNGHT. HIGHS ON TUE WL DEPEND ON 
IF ANY PTN OF FA GETS INTO THE WRM SCTR. IF THIS HAPPENS 60 DEG RDGS 
ACRS SRN PTN OF FA WLD BE PSBL. QPF AMTS ARE OF CONCERN AT THIS 
POINT AS SOM HVY PCPN PSBL LATE MON NGHT INTO ERLY TUE AFT.   
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET 
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK...BECOMING CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.  
VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING 
TO NEAR CALM BY DAYBREAK.  AFTER DAYBREAK...SKY CLEAR AND VISIBILITY 
UNRESTRICTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.  CLOUDS INCREASING AROUND 20 
THOUSAND FEET TOWARD NOON WITH MAINLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS 
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS LOWERING TO 6 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET 
SHORTLY AFTER DARK...VISIBILITY CONTINUED UNRESTRICTED.  SOUTHERLY 
SURFACE WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  
TONIGHT...CEILINGS LOWERING TO 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET FROM THE CAPITAL 
DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH AREAS OF SNOW VISIBILITY 3 TO 4 MILES IN 
SNOW. SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT CEILING AT OR ABOVE 5 THOUSAND 
FEET...CLOUDS MAINLY BROKEN AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED.  SURFACE 
WIND SOUTH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITHIN 3 HOURS OF DAYBREAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG 
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND 
INTO OUR RGN ON TUESDAY COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...GREAT UNCERTAINTY 
STILL EXISTS WITH LOCATION OF WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 
AT THIS POUINT IN TIME HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$