INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 915 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002 SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWING MUCH OF THE CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE TROF EXITING THE REGION WITH THE DISTRICT NOW UNDER A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW IS NOW GIVING US THE USUAL CLOUDS BANKING UP ON THE SOUTH END AND EAST SIDE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. WINDS IN THE DESERTS CONTINUE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY AND BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS AND MESO-SCALE MODEL ANALYSIS... WILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE DESERTS AS CURRENT WORDING STILL VALID. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO RETURNS FROM THE CLOUDS ON THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AT 9 PM. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP. MOLINA .HNX...NONE. ca WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 925 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002 CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SE U.S. AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF OVER THE W GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE OVER THE CENT GULF. 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY WITH PW JUST UNDER 1 INCH AND A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. A VERY COMFORTABLE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. BEGINNINGS OF A NE SURGE NOW APPEAR TO BE NEAR ORLANDO...MOVING ESE TOWARD THE FA. --TONIGHT--- CLOUDS DIDN'T FORM AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION LIKE EXPECTED LAST NIGHT...SO WILL NOT GO FOR IT TONIGHT. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SEEMS OK FOR NOW. CIRRUS OVER S 1/2 OF FA...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. --MARINE-- CURRENT OBS INDICATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF...AND MARGINAL SCEC OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF TPA BAY. THE RUC AND MESO ETA SHOW MARGINAL SCA (20+KTS) OVER THE GULF...AND SCEC OVER TPA BAY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL LOWER TO SCEC FOR TPA BAY...AND KEEP MARGINAL SCA OVER THE E GULF. SURGE COULD CAUSE BRIEF SCA OVER THE BAY. .TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM. ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT TAMPA BAY. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGH DISPERSION. MORALES fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 950 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002 MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CO AND WY AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL...HAS KICKED OFF CONVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FORM ON AND LITTLE SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND RUC40 SHOWS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHCENTRAL KS NEAR THE NEB STATE LINE WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. WILL LEAVE POP FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK. .TOP...NONE WOLTERS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002 CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. THIS EVENING'S RUC40 MODEL RUN AND EARLIER 18Z MESO ETA RUN...WERE BOTH CONSISTENT WITH THEIR TEMP FCST AND SFC WND FCST OVNGT. BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT EAST WNDS EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND TEMPS LOWER TO MID 30S. SO SOME FROST SEEMS A GOOD BET. FURTHER WEST ...JUST A TAD MORE SFC GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT A HAIR ABOVE ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST THOSE LOCATIONS OVNGNT... WITH TEMPS 35 TO 40 RANGE. OTHERWISE...ALL GUIDE SIGNALLING A WARMUP ON TAP FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WORK-WEEK. .SDF...FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT EASTERN ONE HALF ... OR SO ... OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STUREY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1035 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002 MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRN LAKES UNDER NW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF CNTRL CONUS RDG. VIS/IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HI PRES WAS LOCATED OVER OH RESULTING IN SSW FLOW AND WAA INTO UPR MI. MARINE LYR/FRONT HAS KEPT WINDS BACKED TO THE SE OVER THE LK SUPERIOR AND E AT KCMX. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY MID 50S TO 60 OVER MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SRLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS AT IWD AND MQT. COOLER AIR WITH READINGS IN THE 40S PREVAILED FARTHER EAST AND NEAR LK MI. PRES GRADIENT FCST TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH BNDRY LYR WINDS FROM 20-25 KT (KMQT VAD WND PRFL ALREADY SHOWED 35KTS S WIND AT 2-3K FT) PROVIDING ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR. SO...WL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT FOR AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARMING PERSISTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 230 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002 ...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... MODELS AGREE IN LIFTING THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE N ROCKIES/N HI PLAINS TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OFFSHORE AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE BRINGING AN END TO THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS TONIGHT. 18Z MESOETA AND RUC LI'S & 700MB 300K THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTS KEEPING ISOLATED EVENING THUNDER IN FROM CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EASTWARD. ONE LONE STRIKE OVER W JACKSON COUNTY AT 2130Z THIS AFTERNOON CONFIRMS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. MESOETA TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS & AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT BY THE CURRENT BROKEN CLOUD DECK ARGUE FOR KEEPING SKIES M CLOUDY OVER THE W VALLEYS OF OREGON TONIGHT (UMPQUA AND ROGUE BASIN). ELSEWHERE...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING & 700-500MB WARMING STABILIZE THE PROFILE. ON WEDNESDAY...MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE W VALLEYS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS THE 500MB UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. SEVERAL DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND MORE SUNSHINE ARGUE FOR MAX TEMPS INLAND ROUGHLY 10F WARMER THAN TUESDAY. DO PREFER THE WARMER NGM MOS TEMPS (OVER THE COOLER AVN MOS)...WITH THE ETA THERMAL FIELDS (850-700MB THICKNESSES) SUPPORTING THIS LEANING. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CUMULUS, ESP OVER THE MTNS. BUT NO SHOWERS. CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. BY FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE W OF THE CASCADES...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER N CALIFORNIA. WOLF EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND SATURDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL PUT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SISKIYOU COUNTY FOR SUNDAY AS PER COORDINATION WITH CALIFORNIA...AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ONLY MINOR (LESS 12HR) TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MRF/UKMO/ECMWF MODELS. THE US AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE OPERATION MRF SOLUTION IS A GOOD COMPROMISE. .MFR...NONE. or AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002 CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN CENTER ON WINDS AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ETA AND AVN ONCE AGAIN NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION OF UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES NOW TOWARD LATER IN THE WAVE EVOLUTION AS UPPER WAVE DAMPENS OUT. ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED BACK TOWARD TAKING UPPER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN SOLUTION. ETA LOOKING MORE LIKE ECMWF IN TERMS OF UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD ETA FOR THIS FORECAST. 18Z RUC SHOWING 35-40 KNOT 925 HPA WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN MOST AREAS ARE MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE PRESENT TIME...WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL CUT OFF ADVISORY AT 00Z ACROSS WESTERN CWA AS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CWA. BY LATE EVENING IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW EASTERN CWA TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY IN EASTERN CWA UNTIL 02Z. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. CONCERN THEN WILL BE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGGED BY ETA TO QUICKLY ACQUIRE NEGATIVELY TILTED STRUCTURE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH 300-200 HPA UPPER DIVERGENCE WORKING INTO WESTERN CWA. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO STEADILY COME UP ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KPIR AND KMBG REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN 20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED IN ETA SOLUTION IN ABOUT 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN CWA IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG IN KPIR MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDING. AS THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKS EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. LIMITING FACTOR DEFINITELY REMAINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY 18Z BEGIN TO SEE OCCLUSION PROCESS IN FULL FORCE WITH VERTICALLY STACKED HEIGHT MINIMUM. LONG ADVERTISED DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED TYPE BOUNDARY EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS WESTERN CWA AND WORKS INTO KABR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RIGHT NOW BEST PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAX OUT. SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER DEFORMATION WHICH WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT ETA HAS CONVERGED TOWARD CANADIAN SOLUTION OF KEEPING UPPER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN THIS...WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THANKS TO KFSD...KBIS...AND KFGF FOR COORDINATION. MARSILI .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE SHOWING GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO WESTERN U.S. TROF BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH UKMET SHOWING A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION. AVN AND CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BY KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WESTERN U.S. TROF SLIDES EAST LATE SUNDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND TEMPS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70 FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY. WITH UPPER TROF SLIDING OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR PCPN FOR MONDAY AND DRAG IT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS UPPER TROF IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY WITH LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT HIGHS A BIT LESS THAN NORMAL. FAUCETTE .ABR...WIND ADVISORY WESTERN CWA THROUGH 00Z WIND ADVISORY EASTERN CWA THROUGH 02Z sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002 AT 16Z...WESTERN CWA MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH FAR EASTERN CWA APPROACHING THIS CATEGORY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING UP TO ABOUT 875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON. 925 HPA WINDS OFF THE RUC IN 35-40 KNOT RANGE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z...AND LARGE PART OF MAGNITUDE WILL NOT HAVE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING SURFACE IN WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT. MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN CWA EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS RESPECT. TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. AN UPDATE IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RUC DATA AND 12Z MESOETA ALSO SUGGEST PERHAPS WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY GETS GOING. QUESTION WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS IS HOW EFFICIENTLY WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN AS GO INTO LATE THIS EVENING. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TODAY. MARSILI sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 515 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ON FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS AT MOST ALL REPORTING STATIONS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RUC H85 WINDS ALSO DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...BUT ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 40 MPH. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...A BIT OF DISCREPANCY IN THE MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES BUT WILL WEIGH TO THE WARM SIDE (MID-UPPER 70S) CONSIDERING ALMOST FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO MODERATE WINDS. TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S SOUTH FOR THURSDAY/S HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. THIS STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECEDE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST. EMBEDDED ELEVATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LET THE EXTENDED RIDE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. .LBF...NONE. 44 ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 305 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGES -- WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SYNOPSIS -- EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND LAST EVENING'S UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED, MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NWRN WY WITH DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, RICHER MOISTURE RETURN AT 850MB WAS SITUATED ALONG A OUN-LBF-UNR-GGW AXIS, JUXTAPOSITIONED UNDER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PER 00Z/22 HIGH PLAINS SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WY CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NERN MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRY TROUGH THAT EXTENDED SWD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER ERN CO. TO THE E OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, PLAN VIEW PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 60-70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH NEB. FORECAST -- ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH 36 HRS, WITH DIFFERENCES ON THE UPSTREAM 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD AND SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION THEREAFTER. IN THE SHORT TERM, OUR MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 00Z/22 ETA AND 06Z/22 RUCII BOTH INDICATE A SLOW EWD SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, OUR NWRN ZONES WILL FALL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE/850 MB TROUGHS, EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN WINDS. THUS, WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW AND ALL DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL SD, AS RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/LDS TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE AGREE WITH SPC'S DAY 1 OUTLOOK IN THAT THE ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. NONETHELESS, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 M/S, SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO, GIVEN THE LARGE BOUNDARY-LAYER T/TD SPREADS. WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER NGM NUMBERS. TONIGHT, WE WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES, WITH ONLY AN EVENING MENTION NW. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND S. PER PMDHMD REASONING, WE WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ETA SOLUTION ON THE HANDLING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID, WE WILL ONLY MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES INTO AFTERNOON. GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE DAKOTAS, SUGGESTS WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE ETA AND AVN BOTH ADVERTISE THE MOVEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE CWFA WILL BE IN A STABILIZED, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, SO WE WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE NEW AVN EXTENSION SUGGEST THAT THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OFF TO OUR W THROUGH TUESDAY. EXCEPT FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY, WE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. COORDINATED WITH DSM, LBF, GID, TOP AND EAX IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS ON THE NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION FORMAT...PLEASE E-MAIL THEM TO W-OAX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL DAVE THEOPHILUS AT 402-359-5166. .OMA...WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING WEST OF WAYNE TO COLUMBUS LINE...AND ALL DAY FOR REMAINDER OF CWFA. MEAD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1142 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2002 FCST CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE WINDS AND TEMPS. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STG SHRTWV/UPR LOW OVR LEE OF ROCKIES ROTATING SLOWLY EWD NUDGING AXIS OF BROAD UPR RDG SLIGHTLY EAST OF FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVR SE MT. SOME WAA CLDS FM MN/NW WI ADVANCING TOWARD WRN UPR MI FORMING AT NOSE OF 50 KT 850 MB JET AND REGION OF 3-5H DIFLUENCE/305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THESE CLDS TO THIN OUT AS THEY SPREAD EAST THIS AFT INTO FA AND INTO DRIER AIR OF UPR RDG AS EVIDENT FM 12Z GRB SNDG. MAGIC MIXING HEIGHT FM AREA SNDGS YESTERDAY AT 00Z LOOKS TO BE AROUND 800 MB. DON'T BELIEVE THAT THIN CLDS SPREADING ACROSS FA THIS AFT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THIS...SO WL KEEP GOING FCST OF 70 TO 75 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY TO 800 MB PER 12Z SNDGS. MARINE LYR FM LAKE MICHIGAN IN SLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP INLAND TEMPS ANYWHERE FM 5-10F COOLER OVER ERN ZONES AND AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. 12Z GRB SNDG INDICATING WINDS TO 35 KTS WITHIN MIXED LYR SO KEEP HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED DWNSLPG SHORELINE AREAS ALG LAKE SUPERIOR. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1005 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2002 A NICE DAY APPEARS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY...AS WARMING TREND JUST GETS STARTED TODAY. BNA 12Z SOUNDING WITH MIXING UP TO THE 800 MB LEVEL GETS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OR SO. 12Z RNK SOUNDING WAS NOT VIEWABLE IN AWIPS. RUC MODEL RH FIELDS AND CU RULE SHOW POSSIBLE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE FORECAST HAS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE...BUT MAY DO A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGHS TODAY FOR THE NE PLATEAU GROUP AND THE SRN MTN GROUP BASED ON YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. OTHERWISE...THE FREEZE WARNING SEEMS TO HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL BASED ON OBSERVED MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING FROM ASOS AND COOP SITES. ANOTHER RECORD SETTING MORNING FOR TRI CITIES REGIONAL AIRPORT! .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 925 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH UPDATED ZONES...UPDATED HWO...AND NPW TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DATA FROM 22/12Z KFWD RAOB...KFWS VAD PROFILE...AND RUC40 ALL SUGGEST 30-40 KNOTS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIURNAL MIXING WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR 20-30 MPH SURFACE WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. 65/DD .FWD...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 345 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INCLUDE WINDS AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA. ETA AND AVN MUCH MORE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN OUT TO 36 HOURS...ETA SEEMS TO HAVE COME AROUND TO THE AVN SOLUTION OF TENDING TO HOLD BACK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WEST OF CWA INTO THURSDAY. ETA/AVN SOLUTION IN TERMS OF UPPER WAVE ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND CANADIAN. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK BEST NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. 19Z LAPS DATA SHOWING BEST LOW LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE JUST WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. EVEN ACROSS EASTERN CWA FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH STEEPEST LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LARGEST SURFACE BASED CAPES BEING QUICKLY ACCOMPANIED BY DRAMATIC BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING. LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO NOW SHIFTING EAST OF CWA. GIVEN CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS OF FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM WORDING ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE WINDS. RUC DATA SUGGESTING MAINTENANCE OF 30-35 KNOT 925 HPA WINDS AND DO NOT FEEL WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER DIMINISHED MIXING AFTER SUNSET. WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 01Z. MID LEVEL PVA SHOULD PROMOTE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO REGION SO WILL GO FOR PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT MAINLY AM WINDS. MAIN SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN WESTERN CWA IN 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND SPREADS EASTWARD. ETA 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6 HPA/3HR AND COLD ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE AM ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG UPPER DEFORMATION FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TROPOPAUSE LEVEL PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTION SHOWER POSSIBILITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER DEFORMATION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AXIS. UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER TIME FOR FROST CONCERN. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS WITH COLD LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE. FEEL THAT FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO TAKE WEAK SHORT WAVE NORTH OF CWA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AVN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ETA WITH THIS WAVE...BUT IMPACT ON CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER FORCING. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODULES STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...IN THE BROAD SENSE. RIDGING CONTS TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW FLOW AT 5H AND 7H THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A SFC TROF APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE DRY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATER ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE FEED RESULTING FROM GULF BEING OPEN. BY MONDAY DWPTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD LOLVL JET SETTING UP. WITH MAIN SFC CONVERGENCE LINE THROUGH OUR CWA ON MONDAY...APPEARS THAT CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL EXISTS...SO WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE. FOR TUESDAY...SFC TROF PUSHES SLOWLY EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. CANADIAN/ECMWF AND AVN ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL AGREE TO THIS. WILL END PCPN BY 18Z IN IFPS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BY WEDNESDAY BUILDING RIDGE TAKES OVER BRINGING DRY CONDS TO WARMING TEMPS BACK TO REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLLOWED. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 01Z. MARSILI/HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 TWO CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WINDS AND CONVECTION CHANCES. RUC DATA SHOWING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKS EASTWARD. THE 15Z RUC STILL WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST 925 HPA WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKING A LITTLE LESS PROMISING AS TIME GOES ON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN KMBG AND KPIR NOW IN THE LOW AND MID 30S WITH EVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM. EVEN WITH UPPER SUPPORT...THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES CONTINUING IN FAR EASTERN CWA. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z FOR ENTIRE CWA. MARSILI sd DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX. A PACIFIC FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC 1000-500MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH...700MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH TX HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD ALLOWING A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE CWA. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TX WITH RETURN FLOW. CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEAKENS. WEAKNESS IN THE 700MB RIDGE OVER THE LOWER TX COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN. EXTENDED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO NORTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT. 700MB RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEARS TO KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. 700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX MAY INITIATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR FAR WEST PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. .MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN COMBO WITH RETURN MOISTURE FEED WILL MERIT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THURSDAY MORNING SHOWERS OFFSHORE. WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE SHOWERS WERE SHALLOW AND PRODUCED MAINLY SPRINKLES...SO LOOKING FOR PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS OBS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MODERATE WINDS AND 5 FEET SEAS PREVAIL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC WORDING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OFFSHORE WITH A LLJ. SEAS COULD THEN BUILD A FOOT OR SO TO NEAR SCA HEIGHT BY MORNING. THE MESOETA IS BACKING OFF FROM THE STRONGER WINDS IT FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE PREVIOUSLY. WWIII MODEL NOT EVEN CALLING FOR SCA SEAS OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST GULF NOT REALLY MAKING IT OVER TO THIS SIDE OF THE BASIN. THUS...SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY BE LOW END TO MARGINAL IN THIS FORECAST. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... BRO BB 072 088/072 089/074 00/00/00/00/00 HRL BB 071 090/071 091/073 00/00/00/00/00 MFE BB 071 092/071 093/073 00/00/00/00/00 RGC BB 069 094/069 095/071 00/00/00/00/00 SPI BB 076 084/076 084/076 00/10/00/10/00 SYNOPTIC...61/MARINE-AVIATION-MESO...54 INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...SCA GMZ130. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 217 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR WINDS/STORMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BRIEF MOISTURE RETURN...THEN SATURDAYS POSSIBLE RAIN. WATER VAPOR DEPICTING THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER DAKOTA/MT BORDER AT 18Z WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AT KUNR OF 180MB/12HR. THIS MONSTER IS SHIFTING EAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW AT THE TROUGH BASE OR EAST OF IT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO 50+F INTO ND AHEAD OF DRYLINE FROM KJMS-KABR-KHLC KS. MIDDLE 50S NOT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH SBCAPES NOW ABOUT 800J/KG ON THIS THIN AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT PER RUC. SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION HOWEVER PER RUC AND 12Z RAOB DATA. STRATOCU FILLING IN WHERE LCL IS LOWER THAN CAP AND THIS IS NEARLY OVERCAST. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH THE AVN SLOWER WITH FROPA ACROSS AREA. THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO WITH SLOWER TIMING. BOTH MODELS CONVECT ALONG FRONT IN MN/IA THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE...BELIEVE TSRA CHANCES WILL BE ALONG FRONT WITH WEAK CONVECTION DYING AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THIN SURFACE MOISTURE RIBBON AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. NO THREAT FOR SEVERE. THUS FAR WINDS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY AND ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONG...WITH CAPPING AND NOT GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP MIXING TONIGHT...WILL EXPIRE ADVISORY IN WI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO THINK A BIT OF DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. WILL MONITOR WIND SPEEDS OVER IA/MN AND I MAY KEEP THE SERN MN/NERN IA WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON REPORTS. CLOUDS CURRENTLY OUT WEST SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH FRONT. THIS AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM OVERNIGHT...5-7F ABOVE NGM GUIDANCE. THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA. AS LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL FILL/WEAKEN SO WINDS WILL BE MORE TAME THURSDAY BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD CAPES OF 1000J/KG WITH LATE FROPA EXPECTED THERE. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD CAUSE A PROBLEM BY LIMITING HEATING. IN ANY CASE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF TSRA GOING AND TIME FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW. WARMEST HIGHS WILL BE SWRN WI. SCT CLOUDS AND STABLE WEATHER FRIDAY LEADS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. THIS COULD SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHERN WI/NERN IA FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION IN PACKAGE WITH CLOUDS/CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NEXT RAIN CHANCE THEN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. KDMX/KMPX COORDINATION ON WIND ADVISORY. THANK YOU. .LSE...NONE. BAUMGARDT wi