FXUS66 KMFR 140300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH JET ARE 
LIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING. SO MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT. 
EXCEPTION WILL BE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL 
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT..THEN DISSIPATE WED MID-MORNING. NOTICED AVN 
WANTS TO BRING A 90KT JET STREAK THRU WED AFTERNOON. THIS IS SIMILAR 
TO WHAT OCCURED MON EVE WHERE TSTORMS BROKE OUT IN THE COASTAL AREA 
IN LFQ OF JET. 



CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OF DAILY CONDITIONS WILL BE 
SUBTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN 
OREGON. THE RESULT IS LATE NIGHT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO 
THE UMPQUA BASIN VERY LATE AT NIGHT THEN CLEARING IN THE 
MORNING...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 
LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  

IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH 
MOVES INLAND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES INLAND SATURDAY EVENING BUT GFS INDICATES SUFFICIENT STRENGTH 
TO WARRANT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COAST AND IN 
DOUGLAS COUNTY.

GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A ZONAL PATTERN EARLY 
NEXT WEEK CONTINUING A STABLE AIR MASS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&