PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2005 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13-17 2005 . . . . . . . THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY... AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVEALL MEAN PATTERN OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... RIDGING OVER THE WEST... A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY ARRIVE AT THE MEAN RESULT... WITH THE 06Z GFS TAKING THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THE 13TH AND SWIFTLY KICKING IT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH THAT DIGS DEEPER AND FORMS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE EAST. LAST NIGHTS CANADIAN GEM SHOWS A SINGLE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE 15TH. THE ECMWF TAKES THE TWO TROUGH APPROACH. AT ANY RATE... REGARDLESS OF THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS... IT LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD FOR THE EAST COAST AGAIN AND DRY FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL REGION... AS WELL AS WESTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE EAST COAST... WITH THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN IMPLYING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AT SOME POINT THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 06Z GFS MAKES DO WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY THE 16TH. REGARDLESS OF THE CAUSE... ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND OTHER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 85 PERCENT OF LAST NIGHTS GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUN. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND... AND THE 850HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE 06Z CALIBRATED CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE BEST ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. DAILY RAINFALL OUTPUT FROM LAST NIGHTS ECMWF RUN WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21 2005 THE MEAN PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS PATTERN... WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN A FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 70 PERCENT OF THE GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE TODAY IS AVERAGE TODAY ... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND THE BIAS-ADJUSTED 2-M TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHTS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CALIBRATED 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUN AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUN. FORECASTER: D. LE COMTE . . . . . . . NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 20TH. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630917 - 19711020 - 19821001 - 19690921 - 19951001 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630917 - 19711020 - 19690921 - 19611010 - 19791020 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17, 2005 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21, 2005 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$