WTPS31 PGTW 012100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ELLIE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 145.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 145.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 18.1S 145.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 18.0S 145.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.9S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.9S 146.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 145.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (ELLIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOWNSVILLE
AND CAIRNS RADARS INDICATE THAT TC 12P MADE LANDFALL SOUTH OF CAIRNS
AT APPROXIMATELY 01/14Z AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND TRACKED FURTHER
INLAND OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE WITH BANDING REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND STRONG INFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK.
THE MAJORITY OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, HOWEVER, COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM LUCINDA,
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, REMAIN STRONGER AT 30-35 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE REMNANTS LIKELY TO TRACK BACK OVER
WATER IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE AFTER 24-36 HOURS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS AFTER TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 10 FEET.//