Notes for Meso-conference Poster Poster size: AMS allows up to 4' by 8' Title Intro Denver Cyclone LGM Anticyclone MODELS characteristics model terrain image for each Show examples For all compare to sfc stations DEN, BJC and APA where TAFS are made Could also be added later I suspect -Could ask questions (table?) like this table would take time, could tape it on later in a blank area! Den cyclone CYS cyclone Pub cyclone Run Date time Fcst | Obs Fcst | Obs Fcst | Obs 18z 5 June 3h | | | | | | | categories would be for DEN Cyclone W M S CZ (- or + as needed) or N for none for LGM Anti W M S or N Cases LGM Anticyclone 1) 6 Nov 2000 MM5 and Mesoeta saved, no RUC -could compare 3 and 6 h fcsts fm 18z runs -good turning to se at BJC; neither captured this but both have general turning 2) 15 Nov 2000 ONLY MM5hot saved; 2 runs, 12z and 18z -good anticyclone with nice verification on top of 18z initial fcst -good turning on MM5hot fcst, but details don't all agree (wind too light at 6 h fcst fm 12z run for AKO, for example, but good turning at BJC. -5h fcst valid 23z: tremendous (classic) turning PREDICTED by the model, obs show tho that wlys had broken through BJC to DEN area. -Even 12h fcst valid 00z had very nice turning predicted **decent example 3) 17 Nov 2000 Saved runs from MM5hot and Mesoeta initialized at 18z -General: Perhaps not quite a classic LGM Anti with a big, broad turning, as AKO has more NNE wind, but slowing turning near Front Range like typical case. Both models seem to capture flow decently. **probably have better cases to show 4) 30 Apr 2001 Have 18z runs from all 3 models for 0-6h fcsts. -impressive turning of W to WNW general flow to 09005 GXY and FNL and working twds DEN area by 21z. -MM5 captures much better than RUC and Mesoeta for 3h fcst; tho breaks down flow too soon (by 23z) out east fm prevailing wlys. -Fair to say other models never really predict this one, tho RUC indicates turning more towards Palmer Divide. **since this is the only complete case, should show. +++perhaps show some of case 2, more of case 4 for LGM Anti DEN Cyclone 1) 24 Mar 2001 -Have all 3 models, but longer range fcsts for NEXT DAY from 18z runs **Only case I think with such long range fcsts fm all the models, as during special period of RUC runs. Showed this case for paper, recommend showing again, perhaps after shorter term forecast examples. ++++LONGER RANGE FCST EXAMPLE++++ ALSO, a very nice wrapped up Den Cyclone 2) 17-18 April 2001 Have some longer range stuff from only mesoeta and MM5hot, but main stuff is good collection from all 3 models from 12z run. -more of a DCVZ and not a circulation -MM5hot has the most turning, RUC the least but slowing and some turning, Mesoeta mainly slowing of sly flow. -by 21z and beyond BJC comes around to nly so get an S- type sitn, with MM5hot prob best. +++Example of a weaker case+++ 3) 5 June 2001 Fairly complete set of 2 model runs (12 & 18z) from all 3 models. PLUS, appears this goes over to a LGM anticyclone on/after 12z/6 June, with some longer range (18-24h) fcsts saved. -12z runs: -MM5hot: No Den Cyclone, and doesn't really develop much of a DCVZ either, mainly sely flow tho by 03z do get a CYS and Den cyclone (not real strong, but there). Appears that flow is too nely in sern CO, even at 21z, whereas mesoeta more ESE there. -Mesoeta: 9h has a Den Cyclone; 15h valid 03z/6 J has nice Den Cyclone DID get an S1 or S2 Den Cyclone by 21z in obs. ALTHOUGH, by 22z and beyond looks mainly sely. Unfortunately don't seem to have any obs saved from BJC after 21z!!!!!!!! -RUC has good Den Cyclone at 21z, then weaker, but broad turning to nely flow, by 00z/6 J. -18z runs: -MM5hot: nothing til DCVZ at 23z, then weak Den cyclone by 00z/6 J. Trouble with the LGM Anti part....MM5hot 18z run dvlps LGM Anti by 15z/6th, but obs show winds still SW attm at AKO, whereas fcst was for NW, so prob NOT a good one to verify. -Mesoeta: has good DCVZ thru 00z, whereas DEN area goes all sely by then. -RUC: Appears to have too good of a Den Cyclone compared to reality. +++SUMMARY: RUC likes this case for a Den Cyclone for some reason, more so than reality. MM5hot prob not enough, Mesoeta may be the best, or slightly overdone. 4) 7 June 2001 Good set of 12z runs with verification Great PUB cyclone case, with excellent vis imagery and obs. -best image might be 2001_06_07_12zmm5hot_4hsfcwindwvis_forpubcyclone_v16z7jun.gif, the 16z image with MM5hot fcst on it. NOTE that later it is more of a good CZ in sern CO, and 18z image shows good tstm dvlpmnt along the CZ. Slow to dvlp DEN cyclone, get first cyclone in sern CO as sly flow established there first. -MM5hot does well with Pub area, Mesoeta not so good, RUC strong CZ (but 13z run), with the time for comparison the 6h fcst valid 18z (19z for RUC). +++Summary: Good example of a Pub cyclone event+++ for poster 15z MM5hot state scale edit 16z vis w/mm5hot over PUB edit 17z same edit <<<<<