SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 930 AM MST MON MAR 6 2000 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME WARMING TO THE AREA DURING MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. .DISCUSSION... RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON OVERALL PATTERN AT 12Z WITH CURRENT MOIST TONGUE N-S FROM MEXICAN BRDR UP THROUGH SRN GILA CO THROUGH NRN AZ. SECONDARY LOW/VORT MAX IDENTIFIED ALONG BAJA COAST AT THE SAME TIME WITH INCREASING MEAN RH TO THE SE AND E OF PHX. PHX HAS ALREADY HAD 1.81 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL THRU 830 AM AS FIRST SURGE LIFTED OUT. SNOW HAS STARTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN GILA AND UPDATES WIBIS TO COVER SHORT TERM CHANGES. TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT IN THOSE HIGHER ELEVS AS PCPN IS STILL SHOWERY. AN INCH OR 2 SHOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE GLOBE-MIAMI TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS MOVE ACROSS SE ARIZONA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PHOENIX SOUNDING PUT FREEZING LEVEL AT 850 MB THIS MRNG. AVN/ETA STILL INSISTS ON A SLOW PROGRESSION OF MAIN UPR TROF. NEW ETA TURNS OUR 700MB WINDS TO THE WEST BTWN 12Z AND 18Z AND DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL TOMORROW. SIPPLE N az WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 910 PM MST MON MAR 6 2000 REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) ARE LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH RAIN STILL OCCURRING BELOW 7500FT. MONDAY ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDE 6 INCHES SILVERTON...8-10 INCHES MONTICELLO. 00Z ETA/NGM SHOWING 700MB WARM ADVECTION SOUTH...ENDING AFTER 06Z WITH GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING BEFORE SUNRISE (06-12Z). DUMBBELL LOW...IN EASTERN NV AND NORTH BAJA...SLOWLY PROGRESSING. IR ENHANCEMENT TO THE NE OF BOTH OF THESE LOW CENTERS...THOUGH TOPS ARE COOLING AT 03Z OVER SW COLORADO WITH A GOOD SHRA HERE IN GJT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS BEST ENHANCED TOPS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE FA LATE TONIGHT. 02Z RUC SHOWS A 700MB CIRCULATION CLOSING OFF OVER THE 4-CORNERS BY 09Z THAT SHOULD HELP WITH GOOD ACCUMULATION. CONCERN IS LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS CORTEZ AND DURANGO...MAY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET VARIOUS SOUTHERN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES RIDE. 700MB TROF PASSES BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH 500 MB TROPA BY 00Z. ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THERE. .GJT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR CO ZONES 17 18 19 21 22 23 AND UT ZONES 22 AND 28. SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR CO ZONE 20 AND UT ZONE 29. RAMEY co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 855 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000 WILL BE UPDATING FOR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA AND TO BREAK OFF AREAS W OF HAVANA/SPI TO HAVE MILDER LOWS NEAR 50. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL UPDATE PIA GROUP FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE. UNSEASONABLY MILD HIGHS TODAY REACHED AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL IL AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 W OF THE IL RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF IL AT 0245Z THANKS TO STRONG H5 RIDGE IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING S ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF. 8 PM TEMPS IN THE MID 50S FROM LINCOLN E AND LOWER 60S FROM SPI/PIA WEST. S WINDS 6-12 MPH HAVE HELPED ELEVATE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S LATE TODAY. ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING RH FIELDS ABOVE 75% FROM 925-800 MB. UPSTREAM...IR SAT LOOP SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM 3-6 KFT TRACKING NE ACROSS S MO TOWARD STL. RUC 850 MB RH INCREASES TO 50-70% ACROSS CWA THROUGH DAWN AND COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN. FWC/FAN CLOSE WITH LOWS AROUND 50 WHILE COOLER 2M ETA NEAR 45. COOLER 2M ETA HAS VERIFED BEST PAST 3 NIGHTS. CURRENT LOWS OF MID 40S NE CWA AND UPPER 40S SW SEEM OK GIVEN INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARRIVING. SSE WINDS 6-12 MPH TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SFC HIGH EASING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL BREAK OFF 4 COUNTIES W OF HAVANA/SPI FOR MILDER LOWS AROUND 50 WHERE S WINDS A BIT STRONGER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. .ILX... IL...NONE. HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1015 PM EST MON MAR 6 2000 TEMPERATURES WILL REQUIRE SOME TWEAKING THIS EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA...SLACK GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE TO NEAR 40. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTH STRENGTHENING GRADIENT IS SLOWING TEMPERATURE FALL. EXPECT GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH PUTTING AN END TO TEMPERATURE FALL AND CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH. SO...WILL RAISE MINS ACROSS NORTH AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTH. 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF LOW TD DEPRESSIONS STRETCHING FROM ILX SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL. 12Z NCEP SUITE AND 18Z MESOETA MODEL SEEMED INTENT ON DEVELOPING HIGH 850 MB RH AROUND 12Z TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. NOW 00Z RUN OF RUC MODEL WHILE STILL INDICATING LOBE OF HIGHER RH TO CROSS CWA AROUND 12Z...SUGGESTS RH FIELD TO BE CONSIDERABLE LESS THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. GIVEN LACK OF ANY CLOUDS AT 850 MB NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CI STREAMING ACROSS MN AND WI NOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT...AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY PERIODS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR GOING OVERNIGHT. .DTX...NONE. OKEEFE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 935 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WILL BE OUT OF CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA... BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS OKAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CWF...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHGS IF ANY. WINDS ARE BCMG MORE NLY ACRS SC WATERS THIS MORN. RUC MODEL SHOWS WINDS VEERING TO N ACRS ENTIRE WATERS BY 18Z...AND TREND OF WINDS BCMG NE DURG THE AFTN SEEMS RSNBLE WITH RDG AXIS RMNG W OF WATERS. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. JH/JAC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 925 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 UPPER RIDGE STILL DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH WITH DRY AIR OVER CAE CWA TODAY. RUCII SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE STILL WEST OF AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. RUCII AND MESOETA FORECAST RAOBS GIVE CAE A HIGH OF 77 TODAY AND THIS IS STILL IN ORDER WITH THE MORNING FORECAST OF 76 AT CAE AND 78 AT AGS. EASTERN PART OF CWA MAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS A TAD COOLER IN THE MIDDLE 70S BUT CSRA IN UPPER 70S. SO NO SIGFNT CHANGES EXPECTED. .CAE..NONE. TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1027 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000 SFC LOW PRES STRENGTH OVER W SD THIS MORNING UNDERESTIMATED BY THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MDLS. THEREFORE...THE WINDS ARE UNDERDONE. WITH A TIGHTER SFC PRES GRAD AND STRONG ABOVE THE SFC MIXING WINDS...THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN. AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NE INTO ND THROUGH THE DAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW MEAH RH THROUGH THE DAY AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...RECORD HIGHS ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO GO WITH SUNNY SKIES...INCREASE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS. .ABR...WIND ADVISORY...NE SD AND BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE MN...REST OF TODAY. MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 925 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000 A FEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE UPDATE TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. 03Z SFC MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATES 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG A P07-KSJT-KMWL LINE AND MOVING STEADILY NW. WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION CURRENT FCST LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE CURRENT PKG TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. IN ADDITION A FEW LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG A STRONG DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. U/A CHARTS INDICATE THIS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DECENT JET IN THE H5-H2 LAYER. 00Z SOUNDING FROM KAMA INDICATES NO CAP AND SOME INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH H8 MOISTURE LACKING WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 PERCENT POP FOR WESTERN ZONES AS RUC IS INDICATING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST. TUE COULD BE QUITE WINDY WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE DRY FUELS AND INCR THE GRASSFIRE DANGER. I MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A SPS LATER TNGT TO ADDRESS HIGH FIRE THREAT AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BLDU. WILL WAIT UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA AND MAKE FINAL DECISION. NEW ZFP TO BE ISSUE AROUND 945 PM. .LBB...NONE. TAYLOR tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 235 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000 WATER VAPOR INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN ATTM WITH LEAD SHRTWV TROF NEARING BAJA. RUC INDICATES AN ASSOCD STRONG UPSTREAM 130KT JET LOCATED OFF CA COAST. SFC DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MSTR IS IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF WITH DWPNT STILL IN L50S. BACKING WINDS TONIGHT TO ALLOW MSTR TO MOVE W TO THE MTNS. 40-50KT LLJ TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WITH SOME WAA WILL KEEP A MENTION OF POPS OVERNIGHT. REAL THREAT WILL BE TMW AS AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO W TX. POPS IN WRN AREAS WILL BE MAINLY EARLY AS DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO PRECLUDE POPS W OF PECOS IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE PECOS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRYLINE AND HEATING ALONG WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WILL ALLOW SB PARCELS TO REACH LFC. QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT ALL COME TOGETHER. NO REAL SURPRISE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FAR ERN AREAS AS THESE SRN STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE IF ANYTHING AND DESPITE RECENT UNUSUALLY EARLY SEASON W TX SVR CONVECTIVE EVENTS IT IS HARD TO HOLD MSTR IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF IN MARCH. WILL LEAVE IN POPS WRN/CENTRAL PB TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THREAT AND WILL WORD SVR NE CWFA TMW WITH IMPRESSIVE VWS. A MORE LIKELY THREAT ACROSS CWFA IS WIND. DEPENDING ON RAIN COULD BE ANOTHER "DUSTER" TMW AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IF ETA VERIFIES WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACROSS KMAF. NO REAL CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED AS LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL FCST. COORD WITH KSJT. MAF 56/75/40/71 1200 LSA 55/72/39/70 1200 E41 57/76/41/71 1200 6R6 60/77/45/74 1200 MRF 45/68/32/64 1200 CNM 53/71/39/68 1200 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. GPM tx SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 937 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000 VAD WINDS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIFORM ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS A ILL DEFINED BROAD LOW ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS MAY HAVE SET OFF THE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH. THE MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW HAS A VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH AT 27 KTS. ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORT LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. APPEARS THE WINDS WILL STAY UNIDIRECTIONAL PUMPING (OR AT LEAST KEEPING) HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN PLACE FOR THE ONSLAUGHT OF THE DRY LINE/NEXT COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFTING CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN GOING NEUTRAL OR SINKING OVER WESTERN MOST COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST GOOD TO GO. .EWX...NONE. 06/08/CA tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 954 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000 HI PRESS RIDGE TO CREST ACRS THE FA INTO OVRNITE TONITE. WK CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TONITE. 09Z RUC SHOWS NW SFC FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY (STRONGEST ON THE VT SIDE) WITH TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE U20S (IN EXTREME NE VT) AND INTO THE U30S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS SEEMS A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. RUC ALSO SHOWS JUST SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE MOVING DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...DRY BLO THAT. SAT PIX SHOW THE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING SE ACRS ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM. THESE CLDS SHUD CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SFC RIDGE...BUT THEY MAY START TO IMPACT THE ST LAW VLY BY AROUND 20Z AND THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMP VLY BY AROUND 23Z. LOWER CLDS CURRENTLY ACRS CENTRAL QUE APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF PESKY LOW CLDS STILL HANGING TUFF ACRS EXTREME NE VT ATTM...BUT THESE CLDS SHUD DISSIPATE BY ZONE ISSUANCE. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE (AND INCREASE WITH TIME) ACRS THE FA THRU 12Z TUE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA FROM THE NW BY LATER TONITE...BUT DEEPER LYR MOISTURE (AND ANY PCPN) TO STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER. HAVE BUMPED TODAY/S MAX TEMPS UP A LIL ON THE VT SIDE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER (IN SRN VT) AND WIND SPEEDS (ACRS EASTERN/SRN VT) BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL. REMAINDER OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PURELY COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST OBS AND LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 915 PM PST MON MAR 6 2000 SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 135W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CLOUDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND WITH THE COOL AIR SITUATED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL...FROST IS OF CONCERN. SATELLITE AND METARS INDICATING SOME AREAS OF BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE FA THIS EVENING. THE RUC FORECASTS A LAYER OF HIGH RH FROM 850 TO AROUND 700 MB THROUGH 06Z THEN DEPICTS DRYING. CURRENT IR IMAGERY TREND SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE FA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THIS SCENARIO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY IDEAL THROUGHOUT THE SJV ALL NIGHT BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE SJV RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP TO ABOUT 32 DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO CLEAN UP SOME EVENING SHOWER REFERENCES IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. .HNX...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. LINDQUIST ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1050 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2000 ...RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TODAY... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING FROM DTX...APX...GRB AND ETA/RUC OVER GRR CWA... HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 70 OVER MOST OF AREA. ACTUALLY ALL OF ABOVE SOUNDING METHODS SUGGEST NEAR 75... BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH GIVEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FCST AROUND 5000 FT. WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNTS BELOW HEIGHT OF INVERSION WILL ASSURE GUSTY WINDS TODAY. HOLLAND WAS 20 WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 AT 10 AM. WITH WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST... AREAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAJECTROY OVER LK MI WILL BE COOLER TODAY. MKG FELL TO 50 A FEW HOURS AGO AND AT 1030 AM HAD ONLY WARMED BACK TO 54. THERE IS AN AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD EDGE OF HIGHER DWPTS FROM SFC THROUGH 850 MB. THAT WAS OVER SE PART OF THE CWA... SOUTH OF LANSING. USING THE CU PROCEDURE FROM THE RUC...IT SUGGESTS THAT ARE WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO... LEFT THE BECOMING SUNNY IN THAT AREA. BOTTOM LINE... FORECAST RECORD HIGHS / BREEZY / SUNNY / HIGH NEAR 70. NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WILL HAVE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SW LAKE SHORE... NEAR 60 TO MID 60S W AND NW LAKE SHORE OF CWA. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 225 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000 TYPICAL WRN SD SPRING STORM CAUSING TYPICAL HEADACHES. BEST THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF EVENTS. MAIN DIF IS AVN BEING FURTHER NW...THUS WARMER. HAVE GONE WITH NGM/ETA SOLNS GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD COOLER TEMPS...AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG H2O CONV ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR NE/SD BORDER...AND RUC-PROGGED CAPE GREATER THAN 1000...+TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE IN FAR SRN CWA...ALONG AND S OF A IEN TO SFD LINE. WINTER WX-WISE UPPER VORT WILL EJECT WITH VERY STRONG NEGATIVE TILT OVR CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER JET STRUCTURE SHOWS TREMENDOUS JET DYNAMICS/COUPLING BULLSEYED OVR WRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. ISENT LIFT AROUND N SIDE OF LOW PROGGED TO GO GONZO IN NW SD WED AS WELL. THIS LIFT MUST BE STRONG SINCE PERSISTANT WAA AT H7 IS LEADING TO A COOLING OF TEMPS AT H7 BY 6 TO 8C. MOISTURE WILL ALSO NOT BE A PROBLEM...AT LEAST NOT AVAILABILITY OF IT. THE ONLY PROBLEM THAT H20 MAY PRESENT IS THAT THEIR MAY BE TOO MUCH...NOT ALLOWING US TO COOL VERY FAST IN WRN SD DURING THE DAY WED...CHANGING PRECIP TO SN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ETA AND 18Z ETA SHOW PRECIP AT RAP CHANGING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. FURTHER W AND HIGHER UP...NE WY...BLK HLS...AND FAR NW SD THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CD AIR TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. IN THESE AREAS WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE WARNINGS FOR THESE PERIODS. FURTHER E WHERE TEMPS STILL A QUESTION WILL GO JUST WATCH FOR WED/WED EVE. AT RAPO...WITH LOWER LVL WNDS N-NE RATHER THAN NW...DOWNSLOPING SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM...ALLOWING RAP TO SHARE IN SNOWFALL ACCUMS. TOUGHEST CALL THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FAR SRN COUNTIES. SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN NE WY TO AROUND 60 MPH IN NW SD...CREATING BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES IN NE WY TO NW SD...12 TO 24 INCHES IN THE BLK HLS WITH THE NRN AND ERN SLOPES FAVORED. FURTHER E IN THE RAP AREA...I WOULD SAY THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY THE DECIDING FACTOR. IN FAR SW SD HAVE GONE WITH A WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL WINDS. FURTHER E IN SCNTRL SD PRECIP SHOULD TURN LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT. NO HILITES IN WESTON CO WY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL RETARD PRECIP. ALSO IT LOOKS AS IF WNDS WONT GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WND WARNING TONIGHT IN WRN SD...SO WILL CANCEL. .UNR...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED MOST OF NE WY AND BLACK HILLS. ...BLIZZARD WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED FAR NW SD ...WND ADVY PART OF NW SD LATE TONIGHT ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AND WED EVE PART OF NW AND WCNTRL SD ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVE FAR SW SD BAILEY sd