AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE CLOUDS COMING DOWN INTO AREA ONCE AGAIN. BASICALLY SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS ROTATING N TO S OVER AREA. AGAIN MORE NE AND LESS SW PER STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN. BIG DIFFERNCE IS THIS IS LAST TIME AS MAJOR TROF PUSHES INTO PICTURE FROM THE NW. TRENDS OF LAST FEW DAYS OF ETA FASTER THAN AVN STILL HOLDS. NCEP SAYS A OTHER MODELS FAVOR SLOWER AVN SO WILL GO THAT WAY WITH UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES. THIS FIGURES WITH A DIGGING FALL LATITUDE TROF WHICH IS USUALLY SLOWER. ALSO IN THIS SITUATION SOME LEAD SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME TIMING PROBLEMS. AVN TREND OF 24 HOURS AGO TO HAVE CLOSED LOW S OF US STILL HOLDS BUT NOW BY 12Z MON IT IS NE AR INSTEAD OF SE MO. STILL CLOSE ENOUGH. AVN DIGS A SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW SO LOOKS LIKE A ROTATING DUMBBELL SITUATION BV 12Z TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM UP EAST AND TROF DIGGING IN S PLAINS. THIS ALL TRANSLATES INTO COOLEST FALL WX SO FAR COMING UP. IN SHORT TERM AVN PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS USUAL WITH THE COLUM RH TOMORROW EVE, NGM PROBABLY THE BEST. HOWEVER TREND OF ETA NOW TO BE SLOWER AND SHOW MORE RH CLOSER TO THE AVN FROM YESTERDAY. SO FORECAST WILL BE SHADED CLOSER TO AVN FOR THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS BEST PRECIP CHANCES SE AND LEAST NW THRU MONDAY. SATL PICS SHOW CLOUDS COMING SE MORE DIURNAL LOOKING AND WITH TROF MOVING E THINK WILL SEE LOT LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT. ALL MODLES SHOW STRONG OMEGA AND DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. LOOKS LIKE BEST "CHANCE" AREAS TO BE OVER IL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN HIGHER POPS TOMORROW NIGHT, ESPECIALLY E. ETA AGAIN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS. WILL GO WITH AVN/NGM BLEND. AF && .AVIATION... THE CROSS SECTION FROM THE MID POINT OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PEORIA ON THE WORKSTATION ETA...MESOSCALE ETA AND RUC40 MODELS SHOW THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION. HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...THERE IS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FORECASTED THROUGH 06 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEEN ON THE OMEGA AND VERTICAL CIRCULATION FIELDS. THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL FORECAST LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 06 UTC. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 1723 UTC SHOW LIGHT WINDS UP TO 850 MB. WILL FORECAST THE WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH 12 UTC. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES .IL... NONE. .IN... NONE. .LK MICH... NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF KMLI EARLY THIS AM TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING OVER LK MI. HIGHS WED ONLY IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE IS TODAY...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIP INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS THEN DEVELOPS MUCH MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER VORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN ONTARIO. ALL THIS MIND...EXPECT FRIDAY DURING THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY WITH PRECIP KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT RFD BY LATE PM. THEN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND DRYING SAT MORNING AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COLDEST AIR DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C. SO BY SUNDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CWA WITH LK EFFECT SHOWERS CRANKING UP TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY. CMS && .AVIATION... THE CROSS SECTION FROM THE MID POINT OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PEORIA ON THE WORKSTATION ETA...MESOSCALE ETA AND RUC40 MODELS SHOW THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION. HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...THERE IS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FORECASTED THROUGH 06 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEEN ON THE OMEGA AND VERTICAL CIRCULATION FIELDS. THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL FORECAST LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 06 UTC. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 1723 UTC SHOW LIGHT WINDS UP TO 850 MB. WILL FORECAST THE WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH 12 UTC. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES .IL... NONE. .IN... NONE. .LK MICH... NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2003 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST 3 HOUR MSL PRESSURE RISE FORECASTS FROM THE RUC II AND MESOETA ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE 6 MB+ ON THE RUC II...WHICH WAS THE THRESHOLD FOR ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE LAST TWO SIMILAR EVENTS EARLIER THIS MONTH...BUT THE VALUES ARE MAXING OUT AT 4-5 MB BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS IT STANDS NOW WESTERN ZONES...WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE...WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND WILL AIM FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THERE WITH GUSTS TO 38 KT. FRIDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD MOTION PULL AWAY. GFS 700 MB TEMPERATURES MIXED TO THE SURFACE COME CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE AND BLEND WELL WITH OTHER OFFICES. SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET MAX ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING LIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. ETA EVEN GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF. THINK THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...JET LIFT...AND TROUGH DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE LIQUID OR FROZEN BASED ON THE FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH. WILL CARRY SILENT POPS FOR NOW BUT RE-EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30. SATURDAY...AREA WILL BE UPSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS WITH SUBSIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH ALL LEVELS. 850 TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +3 TO +6C IN THE ETA TO -1 TO +3C IN THE GFS. WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ETA HERE WITH PLENTY OF SUN OFFSETTING COLD ADVECTION ON BREEZY NORTH WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO WEST. MAV MOS LOOKS TO COLD (LOWER 20S) WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. EVEN SO...ADDING A CATEGORY TO ITS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN FIRST AREAWIDE HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENTAL US. DEEP TROUGH WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE 590 DM RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ETA FORECAST STREAM OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING JET MAXIMUM ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES FORECAST BY THE ETA...GFS...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY AS CORE OF COLD AIR WILL BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN JET INDUCED LIFT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED. JET WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEST COAST RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONTS LOOK TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON 850 TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WEEK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEST COAST RIDGE GRADUALLY ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. && GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SULLIVAN AND GRAFTON COUNTIES. UPSLOPING THE LIKELY CAUSE. WILL UPDATE TO SPLIT OFF THESE ZONES TO UP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHER SPOTTER REPORTS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. && .MARINE... WINDS/SEAS ARE IN THE LOWER END OF THE SCA RANGE NOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THESE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SCA OPPROUNITY EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPEN N OF THE AREA AND MIXING TO 25 KTS OCCURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GOING WITH A SLOWER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BUMP UP WINDS FOR MONDAY AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE A POTENTIAL STRONG SCA/LOW END GALE SE FLOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... THIS EARLY SEASON EVENT IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS PLANNED. RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH ARE PRIMARILY FALLING AS SNOW (PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST). LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA IS LIKELY CAUSED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION (AND AIDED BY UPSLOPE) TO THE NORTH OF THE 850 MB LOW. THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 850 LOW STRETCHES OUT...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF AUG-LEB. THE NEXT AREA IS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN MAINE AND WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. FEEL THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS THE TROWAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RUC/ETA/GFS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL EXPAND AND CIRCLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE SOURCE OF MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES IN ME ZONES 7>9 AND NH ZN 1 WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO SNOW SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING. THIS JUSTIFIES LIKELY OR BETTER POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE DOWNSLOPING BRINGS A PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH. GFS/ETA/GEM/UKMET ALL BUILD IN HIGH PRES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY STICK CLOSE TO MAV MATCHMOS TEMPS...EXCEPT GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW IT FRIDAY NIGHT LEANING TOWARDS THE COLDER ETA. LOOKING AHEAD...WILL USE GFS/UKMET/GEM BLEND (ETA IS ALONE AND QUITE STRONG AND FAST). FOLLOWING THIS...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN GOING FORECAST...WILL BLEND WITH 12Z RUNS...AND WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN EXPAND THEN SUNDAY...THEN RETRACT THEM SUNDAY NIGHT (FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE FRONT). GENERALLY LEFT MON-WED ALONE...BUT DID TWEAK GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SCA. NH...SCA. && $$ APFFEL me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1048 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .UPDATE... DTX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING THE THUMB THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. NEXT BATCH UPSTREAM SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI. SOME BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN CLOUDS MOVING INTO SAGINAW VALLEY...AS SEEN IN 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY...AND TO LESSER EXTENT IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. SATELLITE SHOWS COLDER/HIGHER CLOUDS PIVOTING ON OUT TO THE EAST...AND RUC SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING COLLAPSING MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE BENEATH INVERSION TO SUPPORT QUITE A GOOD DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THUS...THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED JUST TO REFRESH WORDING ONCE THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXIT THE THUMB. && DWD .PREV DISCUSSION... THE LAST BIT OF FAST NW FLOW ALOFT TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESPECTABLE LOW OVER THE U.P AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SUPPORT. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP OVER NORTHERN LOWER ALL DAY, BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD ON WHILE MOVING DOWN THE HILL INTO SE LOWER. SO FAR, SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE MODELS DURING THE EVENING. PLAN TO CARRY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT OUR LOWER ELEVATION. THE PRECIP WILL BE OUTTA HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND LEAVE THE QUESTION OF CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS LEAVE LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND THE ETA HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN. THE SLOWLY FILLING SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, AND WITH 850 MB FLOW SLOWLY BACKING WITH TIME, IT WILL TAKE TOO LONG TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE. A STRONG UPPER JET IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GET HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TONIGHT SO THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER SE MICHIGAN TOMORROW. PLAN TO STICK WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST AS A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MID AND HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FORMIDABLE WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB TAKING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON TO OVERCOME. THIS LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GET SWEPT UP IN THE SW FLOW WITH MOISTURE TAKING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE. PLAN TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION GIVES WAY TO INCREASED UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD FRONTAL FORCING ON SATURDAY. PREFER THE GREATER GFS QPF IN LIGHT OF THE OPENNESS OF THE GULF AND SIMILAR, IF NOT IDENTICAL, FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH OUR AREA. IN TRYING TO DECIDE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ETA IS TOO FAR EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER TO US, MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, EVEN THE GFS GIVES US A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A PAUSE IN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER TROF. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE STATE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY MONDAY WITH A VERY DEEP TROF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THE GFS, UKMET, AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS IN DOUBT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGH. THE LATEST 06 AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING TOWARD LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AS UPPER JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF. WARM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON MONDAY WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THE GFS THEN PROCEEDS TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WITH A COUPLE OF CONTOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S EURO MODELS BUT TODAY'S EURO RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AS HAS THE CANADIAN. NCEP ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD THE MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK TROF/NW FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROF OVERHEAD, CONTINUES TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HEADS TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THE TROF TO OUR EAST. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WE'LL START OUT THURSDAY DRY AND WARMER AS TIMING ON THE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BT EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TRENDS ALONG WITH TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES WHILE UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM SASK/MT. AT THE SFC MESOLOW FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR HAD MOVED ONSHORE LEAVING CYCLONIC NNE FLOW INTO UPR MI AS A LINGERING TROF EXTENDED N INTO ERN LK SUPERIOR FROM LO PRES OVER NRN LK MI. RADAR SHOWED PCPN BANDS MOVING INTO N CNTRL UPR MI. CAA BEHIND THE TROF AXIS HAS LOWERED FRZG LVL ENOUGH TO CHANGE -SHRA OVER TO SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (AT THE NWS OFFICE). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -4C GIVING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ETA AND RUC SNDGS 900-700 LYR LIKELY A BIT TOO DRY GIVEN PCPN TRENDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MORE IN LINE WITH KAPX SNDG LINGERING NEAR THE LOW LVL TROF. EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRES AND DRIER 850-700 AIR(PER 00Z KINL SNDG)TO FILTER INTO UPR MI AS UPSTREAM PROGRESSIVE PATTERN GRADUALLY OVERCOMES LAKE INDUCED TROFFING. SO SCT -SHRASN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE REST OF UPR MI...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE WAA HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH READINGS AGAIN STAYING ABV GUIDANCE VALUES. JLB .PREV DISCUSSION... LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRI AS APPROACHING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA (FAVORABLE POSITION OF 100KT H3 JET AND H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE). THOUGH AMS IS FAIRLY DRY...GFS/ETA/NGM DO SHOW PWATS INCRG TO NEAR 2/3RDS OF AN INCH...OF WHICH WE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT SOMETHING. PCPN TYPE IS AN ISSUE THOUGH. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW WBZERO HEIGHTS OF NEAR 1500FT MSL FRI MORNING...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING DRY AMS SETTLING IN TNGT (UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN 20S). AS PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING FRI...LOOKS LIKE A MIX W/ SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST HALF. MAY EVEN GET A LITTLE ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER WX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAIN UPR TROF COMES IN SAT. INTRODUCTION OF SHRA SAT AFTN IN WEST STILL LOOKS GOOD DUE TO BETTER PV ADVECTION AND COLD AIR ALF (H5 TEMPS TO -27C OR SO). AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -3C OR SO IN WEST...WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE INVOLVEMENT. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT MILD. W/ GOOD MIXING (TO 800-850MB)...H8 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE ZERO AND WLY FLOW...HIGHS INTO LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EAST... ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE. MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS THE U P SAT NIGHT IN THE TROF'S WAKE...AND ETA/GFS SHOW H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C OR -10C OVERNIGHT. IN FACT... AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MAY BE SETTING UP...ONE THAT INVOLVES LES. ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ALL AGREE IN SHOWING SOME DYNAMICS W/ A SHORTWAVE LATE SAT NIGHT...GOOD LLVL CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW AND MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB. ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THE WEST SHOW TOP OF MOIST LAYER TO NEAR -18C AS WELL. CONSIDERING DELTA-TS MAY REACH NEAR 16C...AND MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...W/ NLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C. IN THE EXTENDED (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES LOW WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK FROM THE GULF TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AS A DEEP UPR LOW DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AGREED W/ MID SHIFT THAT BRUNT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MISS US TO THE EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS DELTA-TS AND CYCLONIC NLY FLOW WILL BE THERE. THEN...A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH WRN FLANK OF LONGWAVE TROF INTO TUE...LOOKING TO WRAP UP ENTIRE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS DAY (TUE) HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN... GIVEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM UPR LOW. SO... WHEREAS HAVE MADE WEST DRY LATE SUN AND MON...HAVE KEPT W/ CHC RASN WEST/CENTRAL TUE AND UPPED POPS TO LIKELY RASN EAST. GIVEN STRONG MAGNITUDE OF FLOW...EVEN W/ PURE LAKE EFFECT WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO REACH THE SOUTH. FLOW BACKS NW WED...AND WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN DAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. PER ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS...HAVE GONE W/ DRY WX WED NIGHT/THU AS FLOW BECOMES WLY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PLENTIFUL...AND INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE FRI...TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR LES INTO SUN...AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT US DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. SAT IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW MESOLOW LOCATED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR... HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROF AS SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR NE (IN NW FLOW ALF). LGT SHRA ON MQT RADAR ALONG WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL PROPAGATE SWD OVER NEXT HOUR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF EVNG PERIOD. DUE TO LOCATION OF MESOLOW THOUGH...WILL INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA IN EAST EARLY THIS EVNG. DEEPER MOISTURE ON RUC SOUNDING AT ERY CONCURS WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...LINGERING 925-800RH (W/ DRYING ABOVE) AND NLY FLOW WARRANT KEEPING POSSIBLE DZ OR FLURRIES IN NCENTRAL AND EAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. CELLULAR CLD UPSTREAM UNDER SFC HIGH IN NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT AS WE LOSE ANY DAYTIME HEATING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING MUCH DRIER INL SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL GO WITH PTCLDIES WEST AND SOUTH TNGT. FURTHER WEST...SHARP UPR TROF IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WON'T IMPACT US TIL TOMORROW...HIGH CLOUD HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRI AS APPROACHING TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA (FAVORABLE POSITION OF 100KT H3 JET AND H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE). THOUGH AMS IS FAIRLY DRY...GFS/ETA/NGM DO SHOW PWATS INCRG TO NEAR 2/3RDS OF AN INCH...OF WHICH WE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT SOMETHING. PCPN TYPE IS AN ISSUE THOUGH. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW WBZERO HEIGHTS OF NEAR 1500FT MSL FRI MORNING...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING DRY AMS SETTLING IN TNGT (UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN 20S). AS PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING FRI...LOOKS LIKE A MIX W/ SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST HALF. MAY EVEN GET A LITTLE ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER WX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAIN UPR TROF COMES IN SAT. INTRODUCTION OF SHRA SAT AFTN IN WEST STILL LOOKS GOOD DUE TO BETTER PV ADVECTION AND COLD AIR ALF (H5 TEMPS TO -27C OR SO). AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -3C OR SO IN WEST...WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY LAKE INVOLVEMENT. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT MILD. W/ GOOD MIXING (TO 800-850MB)...H8 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE ZERO AND WLY FLOW...HIGHS INTO LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EAST... ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE. MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS THE U P SAT NIGHT IN THE TROF'S WAKE...AND ETA/GFS SHOW H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C OR -10C OVERNIGHT. IN FACT... AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MAY BE SETTING UP...ONE THAT INVOLVES LES. ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ALL AGREE IN SHOWING SOME DYNAMICS W/ A SHORTWAVE LATE SAT NIGHT...GOOD LLVL CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW AND MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB. ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THE WEST SHOW TOP OF MOIST LAYER TO NEAR -18C AS WELL. CONSIDERING DELTA-TS MAY REACH NEAR 16C...AND MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUN. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...W/ NLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C. IN THE EXTENDED (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES LOW WHICH IS FCST TO TRACK FROM THE GULF TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AS A DEEP UPR LOW DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AGREED W/ MID SHIFT THAT BRUNT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MISS US TO THE EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS DELTA-TS AND CYCLONIC NLY FLOW WILL BE THERE. THEN...A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH WRN FLANK OF LONGWAVE TROF INTO TUE...LOOKING TO WRAP UP ENTIRE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS DAY (TUE) HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN... GIVEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM UPR LOW. SO... WHEREAS HAVE MADE WEST DRY LATE SUN AND MON...HAVE KEPT W/ CHC RASN WEST/CENTRAL TUE AND UPPED POPS TO LIKELY RASN EAST. GIVEN STRONG MAGNITUDE OF FLOW...EVEN W/ PURE LAKE EFFECT WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO REACH THE SOUTH. FLOW BACKS NW WED...AND WOULD EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN DAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. PER ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS...HAVE GONE W/ DRY WX WED NIGHT/THU AS FLOW BECOMES WLY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1025 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE SLIDING SE WITHIN ERN TROUGH IS PUSHING SHIELD OF PCPN W TO E ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED AS IT CROSSED WRN/CNTRL UPR MI...WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS POINT TO -SN FALLING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS...WITH A COATING OF ACCUM IN SPOTS SO FAR. WV LOOP SHOWS DARKENING (NVA) SPREADING INTO MUCH OF UPR MI ATTM AND EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO END AROUND NOONTIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. VIS SAT/SFC OBS INDICATE GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS LEFTOVER IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE (GENERALLY BASES OF CLOUD FM 015-030 WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN NRN UPR MI. ALHTOUGH RADAR ESSENTIALLY SHOWING PCPN SHIFTING EAST OF MQT-SAW-ESC LINE...FEW BLIPS ARE SHOWING UP OVR BARAGA COUNTY AND OUT OVR LK SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT IS RIDING ACROSS NRN LK MI ATTM CONTINUES E...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE N/NNE DIRECTION ACROSS UPR MI. THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED ON SUPERIOR AND AT P59 (COPPER HARBOR). NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE AND LOW SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS OVERHEAD AND N/E OF LAKE SHOULD KEEP MOIST FLOW OVR MUCH OF CWA FOR DAYTIME HOURS. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS OVR SWRN INTERIOR WHERE THICKNESS OF MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN OFF KINL SOUNDING (THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 900MB) VERSUS CWPL (SATURATED THROUGH H85). A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME DRIZZLE AS RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE FALLING SHORT OF -10C ICE NUCLEATION ISOTHERM. WILL ONLY PLACE THIS IN GRIDS OVR BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE BLYR FLOW UPSLOPES AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL STAY LOW. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FEW SPRINKLES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DRYING TREND E AND INLAND. MAX T IN GRIDS LOOK FINE WITH WARMEST READINGS S CNTRL. PLAN TO JUST TWEAK WINDS/TEMPS. UPDATED ZFPMQT OUT BEFORE 11 AM. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1014 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 .SHORT TERM...500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING TO THE SSW AND BRING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NW LOWER. CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z AND WEST OF M-33 LOOKS GOOD FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN FLOW COUNTIES AND AS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA AND RUC AGREE WITH THIS AS WELL. SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY UPDATED FORECAST ZONES. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 LONG TERM...TONIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL BREAK AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW INVERSION BUT STILL BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT THINKING OF CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT AND ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO LOW TEMPERATURES THOUGH. FRIDAY...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WARM ADVECTION (MOSTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) CRANKS UP DURING THE DAY AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWATH SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOT IN PHASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING BUT WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY MOISTEN UP IN THE AFTERNOON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY (WITH MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT -7C OR SO). THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE PM POPS ACROSS THE WEST. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BRING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW (PREVIOUSLY ONLY HAD RAIN) TO THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD FARTHER SOUTH IN ORDER TO LINE UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. 00Z EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE LACKED CONSISTENCY UP TO THIS POINT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ SULLIVAN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1055 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003 UPPER LOW MOVG ACRS SRN NEW ENG ATTM WL MOVE TO CENTRAL NEW ENG COAST THIS PM/EVEN. SFC LOW MOVG NORTH THRU CANADIAN MARITIMES. NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS ACRS VT...MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NRN NY. SNOW AMOUNTS TO THIS POINT GENEALLY AN INCH OR TWO EAST OF THE CHMPLN VLY...LITTLE IF ANY MSRBL SNOW FROM CHMPLN VLY WEST. AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST OF FA THIS PM...MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACRS HIR TRRN OF NRN VT DUE FAVORABLE H8 FLOW AND PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR ALG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS IN 30S TO NEAR 40. GOING FCST HAS IT ALL COVERED PRETTY WELL...SO NO UPDATE ATTM. RJS ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HI PRESS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON FRI/FRI NITE. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. 00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U20S TO AROUND 40F TODAY WITH N-NW SFC WINDS AT AROUND 10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 35-45F TODAY. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE (LEAST ACRS THE ST LAW VLY TODAY). PW VALUES TO BE AOB 0.5" ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE ACCORDING TO RUC AND NH/NY IPW DATA. RUC SHOWS SN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FA TODAY (WITH MAYBE SOME RA IN THE CHAMP VLY). QPF TO BE BLO 0.25" TODAY... WITH BLO 2.5" OF SN (MOSTLY ACRS THE NE KINGDOM). BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS BEST PCPN OCCURRING ACRS NE VT ATTM. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK WAA TO DEVELOP ON FRI/FRI NITE...WITH GOOD WAA ON SAT. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA ON FRI. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ACRS THE FA ON SAT/SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY AND EARLY TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY... THEN MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE AGAIN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST LATE ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AROUND 0.75" ON SAT/SAT NITE. FACTORS AGAINST A DECENT UPSLOPE SN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACRS THE FA INCLUDE LOW DELTA THETA-E VALUES BLO H85...WK H925 FLOW...POOR POSN OF H5 CUTOFF LOW...AND WK CAA. FACTORS LOOKING DECENT FOR UPSLOPE SN TODAY INCLUDE GOOD NW FLOW AT H85...PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR...HI LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND POTNL LENGTH OF THE EVENT (> 12HRS). WILL CONT WITH SOME NW FLOW/ELEVATION PCPN ZONE SPLITS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE AND KEEP ANY SN AMTS BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. PCPN SHOULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONITE AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY AND BE SOMETIME ON SAT NITE/SUN. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M40S ON FRI. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. $$ MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY-SUNDAY) COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH WINDS AND TEMPS THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. AS FOR THE WINDS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF JUST A BIT ON A FEW FACTORS INCLUDING 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND THE WINDS THEMSELF. WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE DAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD BE CLOSE BEFORE 18Z AS RUC/ETA HAVE 45 TO 50 KTS AT 850 OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS... GFS/ETA/NGM PRETTY CLOSE TO EACHOTHER AT 850 WITH GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT KEEPING WINDS FROM TOTALLY DROPPING OFF. FWC/MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINS RANGING FROM MID 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST. FOR SATURDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME WIND TO DEAL WITH AND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS PER 850 GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/UKMET NEAR 50 DEGREES OR SO. IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OR EVEN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WINDS LIGHTEN UP A BIT MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS WEVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN...FWC/MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE MINS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER SO NO LARGE DEVIATIONS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP WITH THE ETA THE MOST BULLISH FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE UKMET AND THEN GFS. AVERAGING THE 3 WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...NOT REAL EXCITED AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PERIOD. APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP IF AT ALL WOULD BE JET ENHANCED AND THIS WOULD HAVE TO FALL FROM THE SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. OMEGA FIELDS SHOW DOWNWARD MOTION AS WELL AND NOT SAYING THAT ITS IMPOSSIBLE THE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM. FOR THAT REASON WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE GRIDS. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY-THURSDAY) NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST INLINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. && GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .SHORT TERM... OUR MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT 06Z THE SFC WX MAP SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST OF JAMES BAY SOUTH OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, AT THE SFC, A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. THE KGRR 88D AND SFC OBS INDICATED A FEW SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE UP AROUND LUDINGTON, BIG RAPIDS AND MT. PLEASANT ONE TO TWO HOURS AGO. HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THESE SPRINKLES HAVE ENDED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. HI RES MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS LAKE MI AND WI. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN AND GRADUALLY THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ETA GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR NW CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SE CWA, BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS DRIER AIR IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ON SUNDAY IT APPEARS A SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WILL SWING IN FROM THE NW. IT WILL TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. HOWEVER, THAT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, CAUSING SFC WINDS TO BECOME N TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA AND CAUSING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. IT'S A TRICKY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH. AS WINDS GO N TO NE SKIES MAY TRY AND CLEAR OUT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, AND MOST OF THE STRATOCU AND SPRINKLES MAY BE PUSHED OUT OVER LAKE MI. IF THIS OCCURS MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO OBVIOUSLY BE COLDER THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW THOUGH, WE WON'T GET TOO FANCY WITH IT, LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... LOOKS LIKE WINTER WILL RULE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS START OFF IN THE MINUS 6 TO 9C RANGE ON MONDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER THAT TO PERHAPS 0C BY DAY 7 AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW...AND THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE SHOWING UP ALREADY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA NOT TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE WAS TO DROP POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INLAND AS SYNOPTIC LOW DEPARTS AND LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AS WAA DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT ARRIVES ON TUE. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST ETA DOES NOT SUPPORT THE FASTER MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL START OFF LIQUID ON TUE IN WAA BUT THEN HEIGHTS LOWER BY EVENING AND SOME WET SNOW SHOULD MIX IN AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C BY 12Z WED. NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ARE PROGGED FOR THU...BUT WAA SETS UP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END BY 12Z THU...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ LAURENS OSTUNO mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 302 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE. FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT/SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON SUN THRU MON. UPR TROF TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA TODAY. ANOTHER UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN THRU MON. 00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U20S-L40S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-10G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M30S-M40S AND LOOK A LIL BETTER THAN RUC TEMPS FOR TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL DRYING TO START TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES TO BE AOB 0.4" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME SHSN IN THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN CONTINUING TO ROTATE DOWN ACRS THE FA ATTM. WK H85 WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH GOOD WAA FOR MUCH OF SAT THRU SUN. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA LATE ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE BASICALLY RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SAT AND LINGER ACRS THE FA RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI TODAY ACRS THE FA. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AND ON SAT AND THEN LINGER THRU AT LEAST SUN. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AOB AN INCH FOR SAT THRU SUN NITE. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN TO THE MTNS ACRS THE FA TODAY. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON SAT. ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA LOOK TO STAND THE BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY ON SAT. CHC POPS STILL LOOK LIKE THE WAY TO GO ON SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. WILL MOST LIKELY GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTER SOME COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR TEENS-M20S TONITE AND T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-M50S ON SAT. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. $$ MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE SE AREAS...A BIT STRONGER SSE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FROM I-74 NORTH AND NEAR 70 SW AREAS. 10 AM TEMPS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 WITH MILDEST READINGS SW AND SSE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 8 TO 18 MPH. RUC AND MESOETA DELAYING SHOWERS TO AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD SUNSET. WILL LEAVE PROB30 CHANCE FROM PEORIA NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND SPRINGFIELD. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE IA/IL BORDER AROUND 00Z...TO I-55 BY 06Z AND THRU LAWRENCEVILLE JUST AFTER 12Z/SAT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SURFACE RIDGE LETTING GO OF THE AREA AS SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT... NOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...IS STILL SLATED TO COME INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. LATEST UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MEAGER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS. CONSIDERING THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE COMING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY UNTIL LATER TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE MOISTURE TO GET THIS FAR NORTHEAST. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND PERIOD. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS YESTURDAY GOT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST AREAS...AND WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THAT TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH ILLINOIS TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS/ETA/CANADIAN HAVING SIMILAR MASS FIELDS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE WETTER GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER ALSO THINK THAT IT IS LINGERING SHOWERS TOO FAR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING LAPSE RATES ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK THAT THE CHANCES ARE TOO MEAGER TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE ETA BRINGS DOWN A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MUCH WEAKER. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CLIPPER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES/850MB TEMPS SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIXTURE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTH...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENERIO...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY QUITE YET. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. && $$ 04/HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... PTYPE AND PCPN TIMING/COVERAGE ARE PRIMARY UPDATE ISSUES. RADAR LOOPS FM KMPX/KDLH/KMQT SHOWING BROAD AREA OF PCPN FM SCNTRL MN INTO NE MN AND ARCING TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GENERAL MOVEMENT OF PCPN IS EWD. OVERALL PCPN IS RAIN...BUT SNOW IS FALLING OVR NRN PORTION OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH KCMX REPORTING LGT SNOW RECENTLY AND REPORT FM MOHWAK TURNING UP A QUICK INCH OF WET SNOW. HOUGHTON WEBCAMS FM MTU SHOWING ONLY RAIN AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE LOWERING OVER REST OF UPR MI SKIES ARE FREE FM PCPN AT THIS POINT. PRIMARY DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN ARE POSITIVE PVA ADVECTION FM APPROACHING VORT MAX EDGING INTO NW MN AND DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT FM 290-295K (H85-H7). 06Z ETA HAS GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN COVERAGE BASED ON 290K ISENTROPIC SFC. INITIALLY...PCPN OVR UPR MI WILL BE BASED ON THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS PVA ADVECTION OF SIGNIFICANCE DOES NOT SPREAD INTO REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO...EXPECT RAIN OVR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AND GRADUALLY SPREADING OVR CWA FM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ON RIGHT TRACK...BUT WILL SLIGHTLY DELAY PCPN FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS FOR PTYPE...THINK THAT SNOW TRENDS OVR KEWEENAW THIS AM MAY BE SIMILAR OVR INTERIOR OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. 00Z ETA BUFKIT FM LAST NIGHT PEGGING PCPN TYPE TO THIS POINT WITH 24/00Z LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA ALSO DOING SUPERB JOB. BOTH INDICATE THAT PCPN DEVELOPING OVR CNTRL ZONES NEXT FEW HOURS WILL AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY...AND POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS SNOW EXCLUSIVELY. AT SAME TIME...LATEST RUC/ETA 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ONLY POINT TO CURRENT KEWEENAW SNOW TO BE IT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE CURRENT PTYPE IN GRIDS/ZONES AND HANDLE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AT ONSET VIA THE NOWCAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...POSITIVE PVA SLOW TO ARRIVE AND ITS ALSO SLOW TO DEPART (NVA BEGINS ONLY BY LATE THIS EVENING). LIKELY-CATAGORICAL POPS CNTRL/ERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT PERIOD COVER SITUATION WELL AND WILL NOT NEED ANY CHANGES BEYOND TODAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 805 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003 .UPDATE...WIND ADVISORY OUT BASED ON UPSTREAM SFC OBS OVR LBF CWA AND FAR WRN PORTION OF NE GID CWA ALG W/SHRT TERM RUCII PROJECTIONS OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE POST FRONTAL DESCENT...ALREADY APPARENT W/10 DEGREE TEMP RISE AT LXN...HDE AND ODX. THIS STRONG MIXING COMBINED W/GRADIENT SURGE AND 1K METER PROFILER WINDS NR 45 KTS AT MRRN1 PROFILER POINTING TO THAT NEED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE SLATED ADVISORY ALG/W OF 281 AND ALL NRN KS COUNTIES. WILL CONT TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF 281 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && 312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003 .PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS EARLY MORNING SHOWS DECENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BACK SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 3-5 MB HAVE BEEN COMMON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT WITH SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG WAVE SPINNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA REVEALS 100+ KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. THIS ALL LOOKS TO EQUATE TO LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE OVER REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET HELPS CARVE OUT A FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST INVOLVES EXTENT OF WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MERRIMAN PROFILER IS ALREADY SHOWING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IN THE FIRST GATE ABOVE THE GROUND. THIS CORE OF WINDS IS SHOWN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MORNING. BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT AS THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH BY THE TIME LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. OTHER PROBLEM WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY IS SLIGHT PRECIP THREAT AS FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW AND ANY RESULTANT CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGH BASED. BASED OFF THIS PRECIP THREAT LOOKS RESTRICTED TO SPRINKLES AT BEST. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY BUT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR ORD TO MID 60S ACROSS N. CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK REASONABLE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR THEN SLIDES INTO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER REGION. THIS WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM ESCAPING THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS SMALL AS LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE DESPITE GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO RIDGE INTO FORECAST UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND WINDS UNDER 15 MPH EXPECT A KILLING FREEZE AS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THEN SHOWN TO SLOWLY PUSH COLD AIR OUT OF AREA WITH DECENT WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COLD DOME PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. MODELS LOOK OVERDONE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON MONDAY GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES COMING OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BASED OFF THIS SETUP EXPECT A NICE VIRGA SHOW BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. REST OF FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AWJ/T ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1103 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AT 14Z...THE SURFACE WAVE WAS CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SOUTH OF AUGUSTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL OF OUR CWFA...BUT DO EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STIL PROGD BY THE RUC TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AHEAD OF EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF EAST COAST TROF THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RUC ALSO INDICATED A SHORTWAVE WOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE CUMULUS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE RUC. THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTS A WIDE RANGE OF AFTERNOON MAXES WILL BE OBSERVED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 45 M DIFFERENCE IN 1000/85H THICKNESS BETWEEN FFC AND GSO. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOME RESIDUAL DOWNSLOPE EARLY THAT GOES NEUTRAL BY LATE AFTERNOON...WE WILL RAISE MAXES ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LOWER 60S FOR THE NORTHWEST...TO MID 70S EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY OR WIND...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 72 46 72 54 / 00 00 10 40 AND 73 46 74 55 / 00 00 10 30 CLT 70 45 72 52 / 00 00 10 20 HKY 68 44 70 51 / 00 00 10 30 AVL 66 43 69 51 / 00 00 10 40 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ BURRUS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 16Z THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MORTON TO PLAINVIEW TO CLARENDON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE GRIDS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE LUBBOCK AREA AROUND 1 PM AND THEN CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THEM HOLDING STEADY OR BEGINNING A SLOW FALL. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. 12Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FREEZE WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT ZONES 21>24 AND 27>29. && $$ FCSTID = MM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 ULVL TROF CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM NORTH COUNTRY. AREA OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY DOESN'T CLR RGN TILL LATER THIS PM. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLDS FOR MUCH OF PM ALG WITH CHC SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS THRU MID PM...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER...SO EXPECT CLRNG LATER PM WITH DIMINISHING NW BREEZES. WILL ISSUE UPDATE WITH SOME MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES. RJS ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE. FRONTAL SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT/SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS THE FA ON SUN THRU MON. UPR TROF TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA TODAY. ANOTHER UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN THRU MON. 00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U20S-L40S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-10G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M30S-M40S AND LOOK A LIL BETTER THAN RUC TEMPS FOR TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL DRYING TO START TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES TO BE AOB 0.4" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME SHSN IN THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN CONTINUING TO ROTATE DOWN ACRS THE FA ATTM. WK H85 WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH GOOD WAA FOR MUCH OF SAT THRU SUN. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA LATE ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE BASICALLY RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SAT AND LINGER ACRS THE FA RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI TODAY ACRS THE FA. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AND ON SAT AND THEN LINGER THRU AT LEAST SUN. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AOB AN INCH FOR SAT THRU SUN NITE. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN TO THE MTNS ACRS THE FA TODAY. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON SAT. ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA LOOK TO STAND THE BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY ON SAT. CHC POPS STILL LOOK LIKE THE WAY TO GO ON SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. WILL MOST LIKELY GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTER SOME COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR TEENS-M20S TONITE AND T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-M50S ON SAT. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW. WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. $$ MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .DISCUSSION FOR THE 4 PM ZONES/GRIDS: THE RUC MODEL SHOWS STRONG THERMAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SOME ARE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE LAPSE RATE FROM 900 MB INCREASES AT 00 UTC AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS DECREASING THROUGH 03 UTC AS SEEN ON THE RUC MODEL. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GOES SOUNDER SHOWS TOTAL PRECIPITAL WATER INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE ETA MODEL FOR THIS WAVE MOVEMENT. THE ETA IS HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOTION OF THE WAVE BETTER THAN AVN. AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE THICKNESS FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE AVN AND ETA SHOWS RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WOULD BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHW && .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE ALL MODELS SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN UP OMEGA OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP NOW DEVELOPING OVER NE IA IN STRONG WWA ZONE. WILL INTRO PRECIP ACROSS TAFS TOWARD EVE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL RAIN MOST OF NIGHT BEFORE ENDING MOSTLY BEFORE 12Z. NGM HAS EXTENSIVE IFR CONDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH LO LEVEL MOISTUE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR N SO JUST HAVE MVFR CONDS IN THE RAIN. CONDS IMPROVE DURING TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME NO TS IN TAFS AS LOOKS LIKE THAT TO HOLD S OF THE TAF SITES. GYY WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE AND NOW THAT STILL LOOKS A STRETCH. WOULD BE MID LEVEL STUFF ANYWAY WITH JUST A FLASH OR TWO. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT MOST OF NIGHT AND THEN NW BY MORNING. AF .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES .IL... NONE. .IN... NONE. .LK MICH... NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 536 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .UPDATE... AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN ...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IOWA IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER LAKE MI...SO SHIFTED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS THUNDER IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. SINCE THE LATEST RUC BRINGS THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THUNDER APPEARS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND THE NEARSHORE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003 .SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES INHIBITING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT SYSTEMS ARE IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO WESTERN KANSAS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN E KANSAS AND N TEXAS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE/COL REGION BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE IMPETUS OF THE FIRST PROBLEM OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TONIGHT. TONIGHT...12Z ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT/500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER DIV Q SHOWING GOOD UPWARD LIFT AND THE 850 MB AND 700-500 MB MOISTURE BOTH ABOVE 95% WITH THE MOISTURE SATURATED TO ABOVE -10C. SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS. THIS LASTS UNTIL ABOUT 08Z THEN THE UPPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE ON AND THE MOISTURE IS NO LONGER SATURATED THROUGH -10C. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE -RA WEST AND LIKELY -RA EAST AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. -DZ WOULD BE MOST LIKELY THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. LUTZ .LONG TERM...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD INCLUDE IMPACT OF UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIT FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT. ETA SHOWS LINGERING QG SUPPORT AND MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 700 MB THROUGH MID MORNING OVER E/SE AREAS...BEFORE DRY SLOT SWEEPS INTO AREA FROM THE SW BY MIDDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY MEAGER (MAINLY WARMER THAN -8C)...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY ALONG BOUNDARY E OF I-75 CORRIDOR. FEEL THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE ETA IS OVERDONE FOR THE AFTERNOON (DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WITH CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG). AS A RESULT...AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY MIDDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT MIXING...WITH LOWER/MID 50S EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AUTUMN AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. HOWEVER...AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH... QG SUPPORT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT -- NW OF A CADILLAC TO ROGERS CITY LINE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LATE TO THESE AREAS. THICKENING CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS REMAINING LIQUID. SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST UPSTREAM...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE -- UP TO ABOUT 700 MB. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION STILL A GOOD BET. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 0 TO -4C RANGE AT 12Z...TO -4 TO -8C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL RESIDE. WILL CONSEQUENTLY INCLUDE A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW MIX E UPPER IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ETA/GFS START TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY. THE ETA IS FASTEST IN BRINGING NEXT SHORT WAVE SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY...AND WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS FAST. PREFER THE TIMING OF THE GFS. WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP MONDAY JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND BANK ON PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING (ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER) WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WERE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER WRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THOUGH NEWER GFS RUNS AND THE ECMWF SEEM TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND/OR FARTHER E SOLUTION. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES BY THU/FRI. RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL WARRANTED TUE -- AS SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE LOWER LAKES -- THOUGH CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NRN MI APPEAR LOW. WILL CONTINUE RISK FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO WED/THU...AND TRY TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS IN FOR FRI (THOUGH WITH VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE WEEK). SMITH && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ mi