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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 12 1998
 
THE TRACK HAS EDGED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...315/7 KT...
PRESUMABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN GEORGETTE AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTH.  GEORGETTE
HAS A SMALL...BUT GROWING...SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SW-S-E-N.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUPPORT INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 50 KT.  A SHIP ABOUT 160 NM NE
OF THE CENTER REPORTED 25 KT WINDS AND 15 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC.
 
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST HAD THE TRACK OF GEORGETTE WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH THE AVN FORECASTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD.  THE 00Z GFDL AND AVN HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS TO THAT SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN AN ACCELERATION BACK TOWARD THE NW.  IT IS NOT
CLEAR...HOWEVER...WHETHER THEY DO SO BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LOW OR...
INSTEAD...BECAUSE OF A RESIDUAL MODEL VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE AVN
NEAR 12N 119W.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF
6 HOURS AGO AND ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BETWEEN GFDL AND
P91E IN BOTH POSITION AND SPEED.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIFOR/S. 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 13.4N 111.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 112.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 113.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N 114.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.3N 116.6W    65 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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