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FXUS04 KWBC 130953
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
452 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
06Z UPDATE..
INCREASED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION BASED ON
WETTER TRENDS OF 00Z ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET.
ELSEWHERE..ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRELIMS BASED PRIMARILY ON
RADAR/SATL TRENDS.
...GULF CST/SE U.S...
SHWRS AND EMBDD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CNTL GULF
COAST AND SPREAD EWD IN RESPONSE TO COMBO OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MSTR FLUX AND RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS DVLPG OVER THE
REGION. UPR LEVEL FLOW PATRN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY
FLAT..WHICH SHOULD KEEP BULK OF MID/UPR LEVEL SUPPORT ACRS THE SE.
GENLY LIKE THE IDEA OF NAM AND GFS IN TAKING ONE ORGANIZED AREA
OF MDT RAINS EWD WITH VEERING 85H FLOW ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE U.S. WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ALONG RETURNING WARM FRONTAL BNDRY. WHILE THIS AREA
STREAKS EWD LATE DAY 1..EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHWRS TO DVLP BACK
TOWARD THE CNTL GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO APCHG E/W JET STREAK.
MANUAL QPF DID NOT GO AS FAR NORTH WITH .25 AND .50 INCH AMOUNTS
AS THE GFS ACRS THE SE..OTHERWISE A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS WAS USED.
...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
MODELS GENLY SUPPORT THE RAPID SHEARING OF S/WV TROF FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CNTL PLAINS WITH WEAKENING ENERGY MOVING INTO
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST BY SAT MORNING. HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNTS ACRS
THIS REGION FROM EARLIER PROGS GIVEN VERY DRY INITIAL CONDS LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF MSTR INTO THE SYSTEM. RATHER CHANNELED
VORTICITY AND WEAKENING 85H CIRC WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A RATHER
NARROW AREA OF .25 INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS ACRS SRN NEB/SW IA INTO
EXTREME NRN KS/NW MO.
...WRN U.S....
VERY POTENT UPR LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST AT 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SWD TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST BEFORE OPENING UP AND GETTING
SHEARED EWD AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM KICKER. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY AT
ODDS WITH THE GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH A LEAD VORT THAT IT SWINGS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPR LOW INTO NRN CA BY 18Z AND CONSEQUENTLY
HAS MUCH HIER AMOUNTS THAN EITHER OF THE TWO MODEL SOLNS OVER THE
MTNS OF NRN CA. THIS IMPULSE IS NOT READILY APPARENT ON SATL ATTM
AND THUS THE NAM WAS GIVEN LESS WEIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS GENL
SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND HIER ELEV SNOWS THAT WILL DVLP SWD THRU
MUCH OF CA AND PARTS OF OREGON WITH UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCD
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION. BEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PD ACRS NW CA AND PARTS OF THE NRN SIERRA
BUT WILL SHIFT SWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN CA LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT AS JET SHIFTS SWD ACRS THE AREA. BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL CARRY
LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND INTO THE GT BASIN AND PARTS OF CO WITH
TIME. FOR MOST AREAS..FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN THRU THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE...
WEAK BNDRY/UPSLOPE WL SUPPORT SOME VRY LGT PCPN OVR NWRN MT. UPR
LOW DROPPING SWD ACRS ERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN NWLY FLOW AND
LIGHT SNOW/SNOWSHOWERS ACRS NW MAINE WWD INTO NRN VT. WEAK TROF
AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF HIER RH WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOWS ACRS PORTION OF NRN MN INTO THE UP OF MI. MODEL QPFS GENLY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE..SO NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...GULF COAST STATES...
VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CARRY WEAK SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ACTUALLY
STALL ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST REGION. EACH IMPULSE WILL INVOLVE
A SURFACE LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...CAPABLE OF INTERACTING WITH A SURGE
GULF MOISTURE AND LIKELY ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FOR LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN/CONVECTION. IN FACT...MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE IN THE 2 TO
3 STD DEV RANGE...SO GULF STATES CAN EXPECT TWO ROUNDS OF MDT
PRECIP WITH A STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. ON SAT... EXPECT THIS
WAVE W/ HEAVY RAIN TO PROGRESS FROM SERN LA/SRN MS TO SERN GA/NERN
FL WITH QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.75 INCHES IF NOT MORE IN
LOCAL SPOTS. BY SUN... THIS WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER WAVE
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS FROM A SIMILAR LOCALE... PERHAPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NERN GULF... AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND
NRN FL PENINSULA.
...WESTERN U.S....
MULTIPLE STREAMS OVER THE ERN PAC WILL BEGIN TO PHASE ON SAT AND
FORM A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF CA ON
SUN. THE RESULTANT OVER THE TWO DAY FCST PERIOD WILL BE A WAVE OF
PAC MOISTURE EITHER JUST REACHING AND IMPACTING NRN CA AND DOWN
THE COAST OR REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO
THE SPREAD WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND HI RES ECMWF SHOWING
SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS W/ THE 12Z/12 ECMWF ON SAT AND GENERALLY THE
21Z SREF MEAN ON SUN WITH THIS MASSIVE SYSTEM AND QPF EXPECTED. SO
ON SAT... EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME TO SURGE INTO
NRN CA AND SPREAD DOWN THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF SUN... COVERING MUCH OF
NRN/CENTRAL CA AND ARRIVING INTO SRN CA. THIS PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS NRN CA AND ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL RANGES IN CENTRAL
CA COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS... THUS THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS ON SUN.
SULLIVAN/MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
0.01 494656 490642 483636 481630 478628 474628 472631 472643
472652 472665 471674 469679 466684 461691 458697 454701
451704 448710 447718 448725 451728 455728 459726 467726
472725 477721 483717 491711 494707 496702 496697 495690
493682 493679 495666 494661 494656
0.01 517940 518936 517933 514928 511925 508922 506919 507918
511914 510908 508901 504892 501889 497888 490887 484888
480890 473888 468887 466883 464877 462870 458857 456848
453840 450834 440817 436810 430800 426790 423779 418768
416768 414770 413776 412794 411800 413806 416813 419818
428835 437853 446870 456890 464908 475924 480930 486936
492942 499946 503949 508948 514946 517940
0.01 518148 518143 515138 507129 502121 495113 488103 482095
479094 476098 476107 476111 477116 476119 477124 479129
483134 486136 489139 495142 503146 511153 518148
0.01 466222 466215 464211 462209 459211 456211 448211 442211
432210 430207 429202 430199 432200 436202 439201 443195
446191 449188 454186 459182 460178 459175 455170 452164
447152 443145 438141 428132 423126 420122 419117 417110
416105 417099 420093 425089 427088 427082 425073 425068
427064 430059 434055 441054 446049 448047 448041 448033
446028 441023 436018 431013 428007 426000 424997 424993
423985 424974 423962 423942 423926 424920 424914 423908
420901 418895 419890 422882 424872 422863 419852 416847
413844 410844 403848 398853 393858 389867 385879 384893
382903 382913 384920 383927 385949 387961 388971 388986
387995 387003 386011 386020 386025 388030 391035 400039
402041 399045 393047 389048 387050 385053 384058 384062
383066 379067 376066 371070 369075 370080 372090 374101
371106 366108 362109 358107 354107 350109 346113 342119
341125 342129 343137 346153 349158 352162 362170 365172
369173 375173 382174 386176 396185 399189 399192 397195
395195 380185 374181 366179 352176 348172 346166 344163
340161 334158 323153 317154 315157 314162 314171 317179
320185 321190 320196 321201 324207 326213 329217 332220
334224 335229 340234 345239 352242 359243 363243 367244
374249 381254 390258 398261 407261 411261 418258 422255
426251 430244 428237 429231 435229 443232 447232 452230
461227 466222
0.01 378844 376837 374831 370824 366820 361818 356817 348813
340810 332802 325791 321787 317784 314784 308786 303790
299794 295805 294814 293825 294831 293838 288846 284857
282865 280878 280886 281892 284905 282915 279928 278933
278939 280947 283953 284957 286966 287969 290970 296969
300966 304963 308958 313951 323945 331937 339931 341927
343923 342920 341913 346909 357904 362901 366896 367892
365888 359885 354884 350883 352879 358876 362872 367867
373859 377850 378844
0.25 449221 448220 445219 443219 442219 441223 442223 444224
445224 448222 449221
0.25 417248 420244 419240 416234 416226 417221 416217 414212
408208 404204 398202 392199 387196 376189 371187 365185
360185 354187 353190 350187 348182 344171 341167 337165
333165 328165 325168 325171 328176 330183 335194 340202
345213 349217 354222 365227 376233 380237 383242 388246
393249 401252 407252 414251 417248
0.25 413991 412981 411972 410962 409953 407942 407923 404919
403920 399925 398931 398940 398946 399955 398970 397980
398989 397995 397000 399004 402008 408009 411004 413995
413991
0.25 409164 410160 409156 406153 403153 402155 400159 402162
405162 408164 409164
0.25 376140 377137 377133 378130 378126 376124 374123 371123
368124 365125 362127 361128 360132 362134 363135 364136
367137 370139 373140 375140 375141 376140
0.25 336846 334838 332833 328827 324822 319822 313826 306833
303838 301845 299855 297866 294877 291890 290900 290914
290926 290934 290938 292941 297942 304941 309939 314935
317930 319926 327904 330893 331886 329879 329871 330865
335854 336846
0.50 409245 412242 413236 413227 413218 411214 400206 389200
379193 374191 368189 365190 366194 369200 377208 384217
387222 386231 386238 391242 397245 402247 409245
0.50 374220 372218 371216 370214 368211 368210 365208 362207
359207 356209 354212 355213 356216 358217 360219 363220
366220 369222 371223 374220
0.50 328845 327838 323833 319831 314832 307839 305843 304848
302871 302875 300881 297889 295901 293913 293924 295931
298934 303935 308932 313929 315925 321906 322893 322882
320876 320873 321861 328845
0.50 344185 345182 345178 344175 344174 342171 341169 339168
336168 333169 330169 329169 330169 333171 335172 337173
337177 337178 337180 339184 339185 342187 344185
1.00 409230 410226 410222 410221 407220 405221 404224 403226
402228 399230 399231 396233 396234 396238 398239 401240
402239 404236 407233 408231 409230
1.00 401216 400212 399211 397209 394207 393206 391205 389204
386204 383203 381200 381199 378198 377199 378200 380201
382204 383205 386206 386208 388210 391212 393214 396216
399216 401216
1.00 315850 315846 312845 310847 310848 310851 309853 309855
310858 312855 312854 314852 315850
1.00 315890 315885 313881 312877 309875 306876 305886 303891
300898 299905 298911 298921 300924 303923 309921 312915
313908 314901 315892 315890
1.50 309905 309902 308899 307899 306903 306906 304910 306913
307913 307912 308909 309907 309905
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
0.01 485665 482656 477647 474640 469635 460632 454632 448636
444643 443649 441657 442664 442669 444673 450681 458688
462693 466696 472699 478701 482702 487699 487684 485667
485665
0.01 513142 515138 513133 510128 507125 504122 499118 493119
489121 486125 487130 492135 495138 499140 503142 509142
513142
0.01 495909 493900 491895 488889 483884 478879 474872 470866
465863 454859 450854 448849 448843 444837 440834 435831
431830 424831 420828 416824 413817 411814 410810 410807
411802 412796 411790 407786 401785 391788 386792 379797
373800 369803 357809 355805 355801 355796 366772 368765
367759 360749 357742 352736 348733 342734 327720 320723
313727 306736 302745 299755 296766 294780 294803 294811
293818 292824 290828 287833 285838 282848 280861 279873
277883 277888 277896 279903 279911 277918 276923 272933
268945 266954 263969 262979 262982 265986 281001 285999
288996 294987 297980 301977 308977 316974 323968 326963
326958 322955 319950 321938 324935 330932 335929 340926
341924 342918 338913 335908 332903 332899 333896 336896
342896 347896 354893 367886 377882 390879 401879 406881
410885 416889 422889 427889 432892 441898 460915 469921
475920 476927 478940 481943 483945 490943 491940 491933
491918 495909
0.01 483249 485247 485244 483241 480235 477231 473229 470228
471223 475220 478215 479212 464204 463198 464193 464182
464176 463173 456169 457164 459161 465160 468158 471155
471149 469145 451126 455117 456114 459110 462109 464103
464099 461076 457069 453063 448055 447048 447040 445031
438019 434013 432010 431005 431999 433990 432984 430982
425978 418977 417979 415983 407992 402995 398992 394986
391983 388982 385988 387994 390999 393005 393008 390011
387018 386024 389029 394033 398033 400035 403044 402049
400051 394056 388059 382061 377062 374061 367058 358059
355061 353064 353073 352079 348081 346083 344088 344092
341092 338097 338102 335102 333107 333111 337116 344122
350125 353127 356128 360127 361122 360120 354115 350110
349104 352103 357103 362100 376102 382097 386098 389105
389109 386112 380108 376108 374111 371110 368117 365121
364126 364132 364139 369143 375144 377142 378136 379133
382131 390130 398132 401138 404144 407153 410161 413168
407172 404176 403180 403186 403191 401197 396196 392193
381185 374182 369181 364182 363182 362187 361193 360195
357197 353196 350193 348187 344182 340181 337184 336187
336194 340205 340211 337218 334222 330230 326237 324242
328248 336251 348256 364257 377258 379263 382266 386268
394269 399268 406268 411270 414274 418275 426275 430275
434274 437273 439269 443263 444257 445252 445243 445237
446233 451228 453226 457227 467239 476247 483249
0.01 450213 451205 451200 449195 445191 442186 440181 439179
436178 430179 430187 428191 428195 431200 434204 435209
441211 446212 450213
0.01 445084 444084 441083 439084 441085 444085 445084
0.25 426255 427247 426241 422229 422221 422215 418209 415207
405206 392203 387205 386214 382216 376214 364211 360209
356209 353212 349217 342225 339229 337233 337239 341243
348245 361248 371248 377247 381248 384249 390254 394256
399258 403258 410261 417263 422262 426255
0.25 416072 417064 414060 410060 407062 401064 398066 395069
389069 386072 387076 392079 395082 398084 401082 407083
410080 414076 416072
0.25 322777 320772 318768 312769 309773 305780 301790 300797
299808 299819 298826 293844 291853 291862 290883 289891
286902 283920 282929 281941 282949 282962 283969 288969
295964 304949 308943 310932 311928 314925 317920 318917
319908 321895 319879 319870 319862 320858 324840 325830
324819 322809 322798 322777
0.50 417256 417246 414235 413232 413225 414218 413216 411215
404212 399209 394210 395216 392219 387219 379220 372216
366215 359212 348222 344228 342234 345238 350237 356237
358242 362245 378243 386245 393249 402254 413255 417256
0.50 317811 315803 310798 305803 304810 302824 298837 295850
295857 295867 294880 293887 291894 288907 287914 287923
285937 286945 288949 291951 296947 301942 302938 302933
300929 301924 305920 308916 308910 309907 311901 314895
315887 315879 315870 317856 317842 319835 320827 317811
1.00 405248 406242 406233 409226 410220 407220 405222 400226
396227 388227 384227 376227 374221 373219 369217 362215
358217 356220 357223 359226 362227 376229 384238 390242
397245 401248 405248
1.00 313816 311810 308811 307819 305830 304837 301846 300855
299860 300865 303867 306867 309865 310860 312856 312851
311841 314830 315826 314819 313816
1.00 306889 307886 307883 305880 303879 301881 300885 299886
299888 297891 297892 296896 296898 296899 297902 297903
299905 300905 300904 301901 302899 302897 304895 304893
306891 306889
1.50 372223 372222 369219 367222 368223 371224 372223
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
0.01 477687 475679 471672 465667 457665 447664 443664 440665
439670 440675 441679 442682 445684 452693 456697 461700
468702 472701 475701 477698 477687
0.01 492221 492215 490212 486207 483205 479205 474207 461206
453210 446212 441211 428210 420213 415201 408198 404196
395191 386185 380181 375178 364173 358172 354173 336161
325162 319163 315165 312169 310175 309185 311192 315196
321203 327212 334221 337225 336228 333234 334240 337244
344248 354252 378258 405265 412270 415272 424279 428280
433278 437273 440268 444261 448256 452254 458254 463253
469253 473250 476242 476233 472229 470226 473221 476219
483219 492221
0.01 477893 478887 477882 474875 469864 464860 460858 452854
446851 444847 440839 438831 435827 431825 425827 419827
415823 413820 408812 403816 398826 396832 399839 407845
411850 413856 415862 418867 422873 426877 432884 437888
440889 447887 453885 459886 462890 464894 466895 471895
477893
0.01 321792 320787 318783 315779 311775 305775 298775 293780
290784 287790 273807 272813 276819 278825 277830 276837
274841 271851 272857 275861 276870 275876 276884 275890
276895 275902 273913 271927 267938 264948 259959 257970
256979 256983 257988 259994 263998 268001 271000 274998
277993 278965 282953 287944 294935 300927 303923 310918
319912 324908 326905 328902 329897 330892 330876 327870
324864 321858 320852 321839 321826 320819 320811 321801
321792
0.25 429264 431261 431257 431252 428246 423240 417232 412216
406210 400205 387197 381192 375187 369183 362180 358181
354183 354187 364197 357198 352197 353190 349185 343179
341177 338177 335178 332181 332191 333198 336207 343219
346234 351238 355240 360242 369245 379248 394251 404253
412257 422262 429264
0.25 311793 309788 307786 303786 298791 294795 286804 284808
283815 283838 284864 285889 283902 284906 286910 290911
294907 297903 302894 305888 306883 308872 309859 310848
312834 313823 313810 313803 312796 311793
0.50 407241 409233 409226 409221 406217 400210 394208 388208
384216 378215 373213 366207 362204 357203 353201 350197
348193 345189 339188 337191 336194 337200 341208 346216
349220 350225 348232 352235 360238 370241 391246 397247
402247 406244 407241
0.50 378199 375195 373193 370191 369194 370195 372198 375200
378199
0.50 308808 306799 302793 294802 290807 287813 286820 285827
285834 286843 289859 290868 291873 294877 296878 299875
301871 304857 307843 308828 308811 308808
1.00 399238 400224 398221 392219 383221 378220 372217 367215
364213 359210 353209 351211 352214 354219 357223 358227
360231 364234 375238 386241 391242 396241 399238
1.00 346203 347199 346198 345196 344194 342195 342198 343201
344202 345204 346203
1.00 302820 301818 297816 294817 292821 291825 290829 290835
291841 293847 295853 298856 299852 300848 301845 301838
302834 302829 302824 302820
1.50 393237 394231 394228 390224 383225 377225 372220 367220
363217 358213 357217 359220 362224 369230 375233 384236
388237 392237 393237
$$
