Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 120945 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 345 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CA/UT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KS BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SHALLOW MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL GET PULLED UPSLOPE TO THE WEST AS CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY IN WEST TEXAS AND MIGRATES INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THIS COULD RESULT IN FOG PER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. FAIRLY WARM LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND A BRIEF, POST-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE SURGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MAXES WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THIS REASON. TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN COOLER AIR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB TROUGH IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO BE OVER HYS/HLC AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND THIS SOLUTION WAS ACCEPTED. A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS 800MB WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL KS. SNOW AMOUNTS ON ALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY ANY OF THE MODELS JUST BASED ON PRIOR EXPERIENCE WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY EVEN BE MET IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MINS WERE NUDGED UP A LITTLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS, 5 TO 10 KT LATE NIGHT WINDS, AND THE LACK OF A VERY COLD AIRMASS. FINCH DAYS 3-7... NEARLY ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE CONUS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE TRACKS OF THESE WAVES WILL TAKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE DODGE CITY CWA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND THE CURRENT POP GRIDS HAVE THIS DEPICTED PRETTY WELL. IF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TO COME OUT SLOWER THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW THE MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION... A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY AT THE TAF SITES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 33 43 20 / 0 0 10 0 GCK 49 29 37 19 / 0 0 20 0 EHA 50 28 42 19 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 53 29 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 48 31 35 17 / 0 0 70 20 P28 57 37 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN24/02
