AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. LOOKS KIKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST WORDING ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. WILL ADJUST TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON MIXED OUT TEMPS. AS FOR PRECIP...LATEST TRENDS AND RUC SUPPORT NO PRECIP UNTIL TONIGHT. MAY ALSO NEED TO ADJUST PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIDDLE GA AND HOLD RAIN OFF UNTIL TUE. .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. $$ NOEL ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 940 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 SHRA ROAMING ACROSS THE LMK FA ATTM AHEAD OF EWD MVG 500MB WAVE. CLUSTERS OF STG/SVR CONVECTION TRANSLATING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES, WHICH GIVEN THE 850MB WIND FLOW, MAY BE INHIBITING NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FA. SOME SCT TSRA NOW DEVELOPING NW OF BNA, WHERE HIGHER MUCAPES AND 3KM SHEARS EXIST. THEY APPEAR ELEVATED, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM. 18Z RUNS OF GFS/ETA SUGGEST A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN QPF ACROSS CEN KY, WITH A REL MAX OVER SRN IND AND ANOTHER DOWN INTO TN RIVER VALLEY INTO GULF STATES. PERIODS OF SHRA, WITH EMBEDDED TS, LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD ACROSS FA, AS 3HR PRESSURE FALLS FROM 1Z ARE MAXIMIZED OVER CEN KY. PER 0Z RUC, MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH NOSE OF LLJ OVERSPREADS LMK FA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2, ALSO POINTING TOWARDS WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPMENT. .LMK...NONE. XXV ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 110 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003 SHORT TERM CONCERN IS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. 17Z RADAR IMAGES INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. AT 17Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF SGF. WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ETA/RUC INDICATE THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 03Z...PRECEDED BY STRONG MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES THE LOUISVILLE AREA AROUND 12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STORY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE 12Z SUNDAY EUROPEAN MODEL TIMING IS 24 HOURS FASTER. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE 12Z GFS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. EUROPEAN/GFS BOTH STALL THE FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL EXTEND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .PAH...NONE. $$ MY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1012 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 .UPDATED... UPDATED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2/5/6. STORM SYSTEM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SOME GUST POTENTIAL TO 45 MPH TODAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER ALL ZONES AND REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES. .SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES TODAY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN MAINE BY MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION... NWP GUID IN DECENT AGREEMENT PER LATEST RADAR/SATL IMAGERY AS STACKED LOW THRU 250 MBS CHURNS THRU THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAFL ATTM RIGHT OVER THE NERN 3RD OF THE CWFA W/DRYING STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SW. RAFL ESTIMATES FROM 88D SHOWING 1-2IN/HR ACROSS THE NERN TIP OF ME. RAFL WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRES CONTS TO MOVE THRU THE MARITIMES. SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE DRYING TREND WORKING ITS WAY NE TODAY. HERE GOES: TODAY...WILL KEEP RA ALONG NERN CORRIDOR OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WRAPAROUND WILL STILL AFFECT THIS AREA. FURTHER S...THINGS WILL DRY OUT. SHEARED VORTICITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE N W/SKIES GOING PC FROM GNR-BGR-BHB. I WILL GO PC FOR THE N AFTER 18Z TIME FRAME. SHEARED VORTICITY WILL HELP TO KICK UP THE WINDS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF THE ETA BUFKIT SHOWING 30 KTS BTWN 500-1000 FT FROM MID-MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST OBS INDICATING ALL GUID ESP ETA/FWC RUNNING HIGH BY 5 TO 10 KTS. SO...WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GO WINDY W/20-30 MPH & MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH & STAY BLO ADVISORY CRIT. I WILL ADJUST MAXES UP A NOTCH. CAA NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE ON NW FLOW. TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES FOR SRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE N TO START & THEN PC SKIES AS S/WV MOVES INTO THAT AREA LATE. THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON SATL IMAGERY OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. CLOUD DECK HOWEVER APPEARS TO MID-HIGH LEVEL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALL MOS PUSHING FOR MINS NEAR 40 UP & LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. I LIKE THE DAYCREW/S THINKING OF KEEPING MINS A TAD WARMER W/CONTD GRADIENT. TUESDAY...S/WV WILL HELP TO KEEP GRADIENT GOING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN HITTING NEAR 30 MPH IN SOME LOCALES ESP ACROSS DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. WILL GO AHEAD TO PUSH WINDY W/20-30 MPH. SOME LLVL CAA PROGGED BY THE GUID. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV MOS W/STG JUNE SUN & DOWNSLOPE. TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHELTERED AREAS HIT MID 30S (SCATTERED FROST). WINDS DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES RIDGES OVER THE CWFA. EXTENDED PD: LONG RANG PROGS SHOW HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS LOOK DRY. WEAKER GEM/ETA & EVEN ECMWF SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES PASSING THRU THE GULF OF ME ON THURSDAY. GFS LOOKS TOO AMPLIFIED ATTM. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A THREAT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS UP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA & WEAK LOW PRES RIDES ALONG IT. COASTAL WATERS: WINDS RUNNING AT STG SCA ATTM. THERE IS A CHC OF SEEING BRIEF PD OF GLW TODAY AS NW WINDS KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES. THINK GALES WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL CARRY GUSTS TO 35 KTS. GRADIENT TO LET UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON W/LOW PRES MOVING FURTHER AWAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP SEAS IN SCA RANGE INTO TUE DUE TO SWELL. THANKS TO GYX FOR GREAT COLLABORATION. .CAR...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ZONES 2/5/6 SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. JAH/TD me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 ANOTHER TRANQUIL EVENING ACROSS FCST AREA. TEMPS ARE THE ONLY FCST CONCERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS...CLEARLY-DEFINED SHORTWAVES MOVING ESE THRU CNTRL CONUS. FIRST IS OVER ERN IA AND SECOND IS OVER SE MT. FIRST SHORTWAVE IS SENDING CI SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES WITH CLOSEST SHRA WELL TO THE S OVER SRN WI. WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AND VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT...TYPICAL DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE SETUP HAS COLLAPSED WITH EVENING COOLING. RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH CALM OR VERY LGT WINDS UNDER 5 MPH. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST AS RUC/ETA ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NE...INDICATED BY LOWERING OF PWAT. ETA LOWERED PWAT FROM ABOUT 0.5 INCHES THIS EVENING TO AROUND 0.3 LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS DROPPING BLO CURRENT OBSERVED DWPT READINGS. THIS POTENTIAL PROBABLY WON'T BE REALIZED AS CI SHIELD WITH SLOW MOVING IA SHORTWAVE LINGERS. ALTHOUGH THIN...THE CI SHOULD HAVE A VERY MINOR IMPACT ON TEMP DROP OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING LOWER THAN CURRENT LOW END DWPT READINGS. BELIEVE GOING FCST MINS BTWN 37 AND 42 LOOK ON TRACK AND FROST WON'T BE A CONCERN. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER ERN FCST AREA...WHERE CI THINNEST AND AIRMASS A BIT DRIER. UPDATE WILL FEATURE MINOR CHANGES TO WIND FCST AND A SLIGHT CHANGE TO SKY CONDITION OVER SRN COUNTIES. ROLFSON DISCUSSION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR TUE THRU MON... BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW LTL CHG IN AIRMASS/H85 TEMP TMRW VS TDAY. MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD TDAY ON FCST SDNGS FOR TMRW YIELD MAX TEMPS OVR INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING IN 70 TO 75 RANGE. ONLY CHG MAY BE SLGTLY HIER ENE SFC-H925 FLOW FCST BY BOTH GFS/ETA...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LK MODERATION AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE COOLING S OF ESC AND W OF MQT NR LK SUP. MODELS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF LK BREEZE CNVGC AND WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE... NO MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF LLVL CNVGC/FCST INVRN HGT ARND H75-8 AND KINX < 10 WARRANT REMOVAL OF ISOLD -SHRA...WITH JUST SCT CU DVLPG INLAND OF LK BREEZES. WITH ANY DIURNAL CU FADING AWAY AT SUNSET AND MOCLR SKIES TUE NGT WITH SIMILAR PWAT/FVRBL RADIATION CONDITIONS...XPCT NR PERSISTENCE ON MIN TEMPS. SIMILARLY LTL CHG FCST BTWN TUE AND WED WITH INLAND TEMPS LOOKING 70 TO 75 FOR MIXING TO H75. ENE FLOW IS FCST SLGTLY WEAKER WITH SFC RDG DVLPG RIGHT OVHD. SO MORE EVEN LK BREEZE COOLING WITH LESS MODERATION IN FVRD NE LK BREEZE AREAS THAN ON TUE. ETA BCMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS/CNDN TRYING TO PUSH DVLPG UPR TROFFING IN THE NRN PLAINS WED E INTO THE WRN LKS WED NGT/THU. BUT CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS FOR SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS/CNDN MODELS. GFS ADVERTISES ANOTHER GOOD RADIATION NGT WED NGT WITH RDG AND PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCH AXIS OVR CWA. DRY AIRMASS/RDGING HOLD IN PLACE AGAIN THU...BUT THEN A RETURN SW FLOW WITH INCRSG PWAT IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY MOVG SHRTWV TAKES HOLD THU NGT. INCRSG SWLY FLOW/HI CLD WL HOLD MINS THU NGT HIER THAN THE NXT FEW NGTS. H85 TEMPS ON THU ABOUT 2C HIER THAN ON WED...SO ADJUSTED INLAND FCST MAX UP ACCORDINGLY. WITH MORE OF A WNW FLOW FCST...XPCT LESS LK MODERATION OF TEMPS. 00Z EXTENDED MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND 06Z/12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN PROGRESSING THE FCST TROFFING IN THE UPR MIDWEST EWD LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE BROUGHT IN SHRA/TSRA ON FRI AS MAIN UPR TROF/UPR JET FORCG GRDLY EDGES EWD. SHRA CHCS WL CONT ON SAT/SUN WITH LINGERING LO HGTS/LO MSLP/CYC FLOW...BUT THEN A DRYING TREND ON MON WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING RISING HGTS/SFC RDGING. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THRU THE PD...WITH MAX TEMPS LOWEST DUE TO CLD COVER. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. KC .MQT...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1010 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 ...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LOWERED TUESDAY HIGHS... COMPARING MODEL QPF TO ACTUAL RAINFALL AREA AS OF 00Z THE GFS IS ON TRACK...EVEN WITH ALL THAT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS! MSAS DATA AND SFC DATA SHOW THE SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FORECAST AT 00Z TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD OVER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AT 00Z. IN FACT...COMPARING SOUNDING AND MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS (BTL TO CGI) TO ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS AT 00Z IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN IS SHOWN ON THE MODELS BETWEEN PIA AND CHI SINCE RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND THERE. LOOKING AT THE ETA/GFS FGEN FORECAST NEAR 700 MB FOR TUESDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 24Z THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. I BELIEVE THAT WHILE THE GFS IS TO DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS A TAD FARTHER NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL THEN THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE... AN AVERAGE OF THE ETA AND GFS QPF IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE 21Z FSL RUC (OUT TO 48HRS). GIVEN ALL OF THAT... THERE IS TO MUCH CLOUDINESS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT... ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. SO I INCREASED THE LOWS ABOUT 10F. ALSO THE ETA AND RUC (FLS RUC) SHOW HIGHS ONLY 50S OVER MOST OF SRN MI TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG NE WIND THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF LWR AND THE DENSE MID LEVEL CLOUDS... EVEN OVER CNTRL LOWER... HARD TO IMAGINE TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 50S WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING OVER FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH. EVEN WHERE IT DOES NOT RAIN THE CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH THAT THE SUN WILL DO LITTLE GOOD. HIGHS IN THE GRR TO LAN AREA WILL BE LUCKY TO GET TO 62F. SO I DECREASED HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE CWA 5 TO 10F TOO. I LEFT THE QPF ALONG... BUT I BELIEVE A STRONG LIKELY WOULD BE WARRANTED IN THE JXN TO AZO AREA TUESDAY. ZONES ALREADY OUT. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 900 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 SATELLITE IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST MI IS CAUSING WARMING OF IR TOPS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA HAVE THICKENED ENOUGH...AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING REST OF NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...BASED ON PRESENT MODEL TRENDS SHOWING SLUGGISHNESS IN SATURATING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LATEST RUC...CANADIAN AND 18Z ETA SHOW DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BELIEVE GFS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS PER QPF. 18Z ETA BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY EVEN FROM THE 12Z ETA. FULL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER IOWA...BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW INTO A REX-ISH BLOCK WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH DRY AIRMASS WITH MAINLY CIRRUS AND A FEW CU ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MAIN QUESTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES AS THE IOWA LOW MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. ETA HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT FROM MISSOURI LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. IN ADDITION WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN...THEN TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION DOWN EVEN MORE. ALL THIS LEADS TO AN INTERESTING FORECAST...ONE THAT LOOKS WETTER THAN BEFORE. CURRENTLY VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CIRRUS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NOT ALL THAT THIN TO BEGIN WITH. GOOD CU FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER/UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT JUST PANCAKE-ISH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...THICKEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. ETA/GFS TRY TO BRING PRECIP IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. GOOD DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OVERCOME...IN ADDITION TO THE GENERAL SLOWDOWN TO THE PATTERN. DESPITE HAVING A VERY SIMILAR AIRMASS AND AGAIN A RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD...THE CLOUDS AROUND SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY /LONGER IN THE ETA/...BUT ALSO INDICATE VERY STRONG LIFT. MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR...AND WILL ADD A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MORESO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE PRECIP. GFS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH TEMPS NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S. SHOULD HAVE THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME REBOUND ESPECIALLY THIS CLOSE TO THE SOLSTICE...AND WILL ONLY CUT BACK HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. UPPER WAVE WOBBLES AROUND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HOLDS BACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO LAKE ERIE/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE CWA...WILL ADD CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA. BETTER MOISTURE MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS IN FROM THE EAST CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ITSELF...ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA /GENERALLY PHN-TTF/. SYSTEM SLOWLY CLEARS EASTWARD BY THURSDAY...WITH UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TREND WITH THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...GOING FROM UNDER THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT 12Z/01...TO JUST AHEAD OF IT 00Z/02...TO UNDER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF 12Z/02. THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKED PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER PATTERN...AND MAY CONTINUE IN FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL PULL PRECIP FROM THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS...HOLDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING INTO THE REGION. GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND INTERNALLY BETWEEN DIFFERENT RUNS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS A DECENT SHOT OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME FLAVOR OF A SURFACE REFLECTION /STRONGER IN THE GFS/ETA-XX...WEAKER IN THE CANADIAN...SOMEWHAT FASTER IN THE 12Z/01 ECMWF/. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE THE GENERAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELATED TO AMPLITUDE BUT ALSO QUESTIONS AS TO TIMING. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH AT THE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. LI/SHOWALTER/LAPSE RATES SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER FOR THE DAY. MAIN FRONT CLEARS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH/UPPER WAVE HOLDING BACK UNTIL SATURDAY. INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER POP AND A MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND HINTS AND CARRYING PRECIP OVER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE THE CASE. ETA-XX MUCH COLDER THAN OTHER WITH THERMAL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT /DROPPING 850MB TEMPS DOWN NEAR -2C AT 168H/00Z MONDAY/ WITH HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WARMER...CLOSER TO 6C. WITH RUN-TO-RUN QUESTIONS...WILL PLAY TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH SOME DEGREE OF A THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST BEFORE SOME MODERATION INTO NEXT WEEK. .DTX...NONE. $$ EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) BRAVENDER mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 250 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW CWA DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALF BTWN A DEEP TROF IN ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG IN THE W. PATTERN HELD UP BY HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN THE NATLANTIC/NW EUROPE. SFC-7 RDG AXIS UNDER NW FLOW ALF STRETCHES FM FAR NW ONTARIO SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY. LOCAL 12Z SDNGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WITH WELL MIXED PBL UP TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN H7-75. FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG E THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE S OF UPR RDG...AND CWA ON NRN PERIPHERY OF HI CLD SHIELD. OTRW... JUST FEW-SCT CU POPPING UP OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH SFC DWPTS GENERALLY 37-45. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV HAS MOVED INTO THE PAC NW AND IS BEATING DOWN THE RDG IN THE NRN ROCKIES. 12HR H3 HGT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 100M OBSVD WITH SHRTWV PASSAGE. FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TEMPS TNGT...THEN WHETHER OR NOT TO RETAIN GOING MID WEEK PCPN CHCS. 12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC-H5 RDGING REMAINING DOMINANT OVR THE UPPER GRT LKS WITH AXIS OF DRY AIR/PWAT AOB 0.5 INCH REMAINING IN PLACE ACRS CWA. CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY E THRU THE OH VALLEY DURG THIS TIME WHILE NRN ROCKIES SHRTWV DRIFTS ESE RIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CWA IS A PCPN-FREE PD TNGT INTO AT LEAST WED NGT...WITH ETA FCST SHOWING RH < 30 PCT THRU MOST OF THE TROP AND HINTING AT NOTHING MORE THAN DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT...SO HAVE PULLED PCPN FM FCST MON NGT-WED NGT. UNDER XPCTD CLR-PCLY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR LARGE DIURNAL CHGS IN TEMP...WITH LK BREEZES FRMG DURG THE DAY UNDER RDG/WEAK PRES GRADIENT. AS FOR TEMPS TNGT...WISPY CI ON NRN PERIPHERY OF SHRTWV MOVG THRU THE OH VALLEY WL HAVE LTL IMPACT ON RADIATION LOSS WITH SLACK PRES GRADIENT/LGT WNDS SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...FCST PWAT BY DAWN TUE IS LWR THAN THIS MRNG. SO WL GO PERSISTENCE ON MINS. SINCE SFC DWPTS HIER THAN YDAY AND NO RPRTS OF FROST THIS MRNG...WL NOT INCLUDE FROST IN FCST FOR TNGT AS DEW FORMATION MORE LIKELY THAN FROST...WITH LATENT HEAT OF CONDENSATION PREVENTING SFC TEMP FM FALLING MUCH FURTHER ONCE DWPT IS REACHED. BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW LTL CHG IN AIRMASS/H85 TEMP TMRW VS TDAY. MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD TDAY ON FCST SDNGS FOR TMRW YIELD MAX TEMPS OVR INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING IN 70 TO 75 RANGE. ONLY CHG MAY BE SLGTLY HIER ENE SFC-H925 FLOW FCST BY BOTH GFS/ETA...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LK MODERATION AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE COOLING S OF ESC AND W OF MQT NR LK SUP. MODELS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF LK BREEZE CNVGC AND WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE... NO MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF LLVL CNVGC/FCST INVRN HGT ARND H75-8 AND KINX < 10 WARRANT REMOVAL OF ISOLD -SHRA...WITH JUST SCT CU DVLPG INLAND OF LK BREEZES. WITH ANY DIURNAL CU FADING AWAY AT SUNSET AND MOCLR SKIES TUE NGT WITH SIMILAR PWAT/FVRBL RADIATION CONDITIONS...XPCT NR PERSISTENCE ON MIN TEMPS. SIMILARLY LTL CHG FCST BTWN TUE AND WED WITH INLAND TEMPS LOOKING 70 TO 75 FOR MIXING TO H75. ENE FLOW IS FCST SLGTLY WEAKER WITH SFC RDG DVLPG RIGHT OVHD. SO MORE EVEN LK BREEZE COOLING WITH LESS MODERATION IN FVRD NE LK BREEZE AREAS THAN ON TUE. ETA BCMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS/CNDN TRYING TO PUSH DVLPG UPR TROFFING IN THE NRN PLAINS WED E INTO THE WRN LKS WED NGT/THU. BUT CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS FOR SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS/CNDN MODELS. GFS ADVERTISES ANOTHER GOOD RADIATION NGT WED NGT WITH RDG AND PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCH AXIS OVR CWA. DRY AIRMASS/RDGING HOLD IN PLACE AGAIN THU...BUT THEN A RETURN SW FLOW WITH INCRSG PWAT IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY MOVG SHRTWV TAKES HOLD THU NGT. INCRSG SWLY FLOW/HI CLD WL HOLD MINS THU NGT HIER THAN THE NXT FEW NGTS. H85 TEMPS ON THU ABOUT 2C HIER THAN ON WED...SO ADJUSTED INLAND FCST MAX UP ACCORDINGLY. WITH MORE OF A WNW FLOW FCST...XPCT LESS LK MODERATION OF TEMPS. 00Z EXTENDED MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND 06Z/12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN PROGRESSING THE FCST TROFFING IN THE UPR MIDWEST EWD LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE BROUGHT IN SHRA/TSRA ON FRI AS MAIN UPR TROF/UPR JET FORCG GRDLY EDGES EWD. SHRA CHCS WL CONT ON SAT/SUN WITH LINGERING LO HGTS/LO MSLP/CYC FLOW...BUT THEN A DRYING TREND ON MON WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING RISING HGTS/SFC RDGING. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THRU THE PD...WITH MAX TEMPS LOWEST DUE TO CLD COVER. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 ONLY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TEMPS AND WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY AFTN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALF. PLAINS SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING TOWARD THE SE...AND PCPN WITH THIS IS ONLY REACHING AS FAR N AS IA/SRN MN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXTENDED ACROSS THE MI/WI BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY AT 14Z...W/ TEMPS GENERALLY IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER A REASONABLY COOL MORNING. AS H8 TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 7-8C...WITH GOOD MIXING (MESOETA/RUC SHOW AFTN MIXING TO ABOVE 800MB)...SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING LOWER 70S INLAND TODAY. W/ A NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK FLOW ALL THE WAY THROUGH 500MB...DAY WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY LAKE BREEZES. IN FACT...ALREADY SEEING THESE FELT ALONG BOTH LAKESHORES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK. AS FAR AS AFTN SHRA GOES...AGREE WITH MID SHIFT THAT MID LEVEL CAP WILL NOT ALLOW THEM. THOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN... CAPE VALUES WILL BE INHIBITED BY WARM LAYER AT 650-700MB. THOUGH THE RUC DOES GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PCPN BY 21Z...BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AS SFC DEWPTS ARE FORECAST IN UPPER 40S...AND EVEN THIS WOULD NOT BREAK THE CAP. A MORE REASONABLE 72/44 (PER MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDINGS) YIELD UNDER 200J/KG OF CAPE WITH LIS APPROACHING ZERO. ALL OF THIS SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER DIMINISHED BY ANY HIGH CLOUD AROUND. SO...HAVE NO DOUBT THAT AFTN CU WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH TOPS HALTED AT AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S...SO SHOULD START SEEING THAT CU BY AROUND NOON. WILL SEND MINOR UPDATE SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ONSET OF LAKE BREEZES...AND TO MENTION SOME AFTN CLOUDS INLAND. .MQT...NONE. JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2003 SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO ATTENTION FOCUSES ON MESOSCALE PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS SHIELD W/SW OF FORECAST AREA IS THINNING AS IT PUSHES DEEPER INTO DRY NW FLOW REGIME OVER LAKES...SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SMOKE FROM DISTANT FOREST FIRES REMAINS SUSPENDED ALOFT PER HAZY APPEARANCE OF SKY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON INSOLATION. MEANWHILE...12Z APX SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEPER 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES/MORE 850-700 MB MOISTURE THAN WAS THE CASE SUNDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED COVERAGE/DEPTH OF CUMULUS FIELD AS COMPARED TO CUMULUS THAT MANAGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON SKY COVER IN SOME AREAS...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE CUMULUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER MI (INLAND FROM LAKE HURON). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS WHERE CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...LIBERAL MODIFICATION OF 12Z RUC 40 SOUNDINGS (USING 70-75 TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S) YIELD CAPES AS HIGH AS 100-200 G/KG AND LIS AS LOW AS -2 BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...06Z MESOETA/12Z RUC40 PRODUCE A BUT OF PRECIP IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S...AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP DEPICTED BY 12Z AREA RAOBS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY RUC40. THUS...RAISED GRIDDED POPS TO 10% IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT CANNOT YET JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS/MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STAY TUNED. FINALLY...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS LOOK GOOD. .APX...NONE. $$ ROWLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 312 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR JOPLIN...IN AREA OF DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN OK...WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. .AVIATION... DECK OF STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS...EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. .SHORT TERM... EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EAST OF LOW THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST RUC HAS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERING INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 06Z. DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW KEEPING STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIZZLE IN FORECAST ALSO. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE LOW NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THINK LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOK OKAY FOR MINS TONIGHT. ALSO KEPT MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S GOING FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA. WILL MAINLY HINGE PRECIP FORECAST ON GOING SURFACE PROGGS...WITH BEST CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN MO AND LEE TROUGH SETS UP WITH FAIRLY RAPID MOISTURE RETURN. WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE THE STRONGER DISTURBANCES WILL CLIP THE AREA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT FROM THE KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN MO. .REST OF THE EXTENDED... ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER TROUGH CLOSE TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BEFORE BUILDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND LEAVE MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN EXTENDED ALSO. ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED. .SGF... .MO...NONE .KS...NONE $$ TERRY/CRAMER mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1137 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003 BOTH MESO ETA AND GFS ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON QPF PROGS THIS AFTERNOON. RUC HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP FORECASTED. MAIN COMPLEX OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA - KANSAS BORDER JUST WEST OF PARSONS AND COFFEYVILLE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE RED RIVER NEAR ARDMORE. WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MO. WITH THE PERSISTENT PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS UPSTREAM...FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. MORNING RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE NEXT BAND OF SLIGHT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAS BEEN LIFTED. WARM FRONT IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE ARKANSAS TERRAIN. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM PRESSURE ADVECTION ACROSS ARKANSAS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVER OVER MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING OCCUR. AFTERNOON SOUNDING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS IN ALL ZONES AND TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE FROM WESTERN ZONES. .SGF... .MO...NONE .KS...NONE $$ CRAMER mo NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 845 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2003 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS VORTICITY MAX MOVING THROUGH E MT VERY WELL THIS EVENING. WELL-DEPICTED BY RUC...MUCH BETTER THAN 18Z MESOETA. 00Z MESOETA BETTER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGH. AIRMASS UNSTABLE...AND NOT THAT MOIST...BUT MOISTER IN OUR EAST. MOST LIFT AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX AND AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA. WITH LOSS OF STABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED...THUNDERSTORMS ENDED. UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE NW AND MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CYPRESS HILLS CANADA TO MOVE SE ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT. MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH UPPER SUPPORT TO THESE AND WITH LOSS OF STABILITY EXPECT JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS LIGHT IN EAST...BUT HAVE PICKED UP OVER WEST HALF OF CWA BEHIND COOL FRONT AND INCREASING NW SURFACE GRADIENTS. UPDATES WILL BE FOR MORE CLOUDCOVER AND TO FRESHEN UP POPS. MOST LOWS FORECAST LOOK GOOD...ZORTMAN DOWN TO 46 8PM THOUGH. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY SHARP UPPER TROF IS FIRMLY IMPLANTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START OFF THIS PERIOD. E MT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE TROF AXIS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WORKING EAST INTO THE AREA (SURFACE PRESSURE SNAPSHOT AT THIS TIME SHOWS A HIGH OVER ALBERTA AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR IOWA). SURFACE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER TROF DEEP TO OUR EAST. NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW PUSHES A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW BY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA (WHILE AN ALBERTA SURFACE HIGH PROVIDES UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW). THEREFORE...BUMPED POPS UP AND KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN FOR SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE TROF INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MAYBE MONDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL. JAMBA KGGW TRR 047/063 044/055 042/055 82232754 RWBE 043/063 045/067 046/072 047/076 7643330000 KGDV TRR 049/066 041/061 042/061 82232554 RWBE 043/060 045/066 044/072 045/076 7644330000 .GGW...NONE. $$ mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 SFC RDG TO OUR NW WL MV E DURING THE DAY TDY AND BE OFFSHR BY SS. THIS WL ALLW MS SKIES TO CONT TDY. WNDS WL CONT ARND 10 KTS OVR THE WTRS THIS AFTN...ALTHO RUC DOES SHO SUM HIER WNDS IN SRN WTRS DUE TO TITER THAN FCST GRAD. WONT BUY INTO IT. WL PIDDLE WI WNDS AND TEMPS BUT NO MJR CHGS XPCTD AS CRRNT FCST LUKS GUD. .MHX...NONE CGG-G nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 300 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003 MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FCST THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS ADVERTISE OVERALL PATTERN CORRECTLY SINCE LATE LAST WEEK AND TODAY HANDLE THE 50H FEATURES RATHER SIMILARLY. BUT DIFFERENCES ARRIVE BTWN ETA/GFS AND OTHER MODELS REGARDING MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH EAST THRU ERN ND/NW MN TUES NIGHT/WED AM. ATTM BELIEVE 12Z ETA TOO FAST AND STRONG WITH SFC TROUGH IN PUSHING IT EAST THRU AREA TUES NIGHT AND WITH STRONG DRYING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN/MM5/UKMET GENERALLLY FOLLOW GFS WITH WEAK TROUGH HANGING UP OVER FCST AREA AND GENERAL WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE THRU WED. FCST GRIDDS TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS TREND. .SHORT TERM... 50H SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SRN MN/NRN IA IS THROWING BACK MOISTURE INTO ERN SD WITH S-SE SFC FLOW BRINGING AREA OF 50+ DEW PTS UP INTO FAR SRN AND WRN ND...GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A MOT-FAR-AXN LINE. PIECE OF ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING NORTH INTO SE ND CAUSING AREA OF -RA...WITH MOVEMENT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. ISOLD SHOWER MAYBE THUNDER DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN WHERE TEMPS REACHED THE LOWER 70S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 50H TEMPS PREVAILED. LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH RUC/ETA/GFS SHOWING IT REACHING GFK AREA BY 03Z. KABR SHOWING DRYING ALREADY IN NE SD WITH DECREASE IN ECHOES. FCST GOES FOR EVENING SHOWERS SE ND AND LATE EVENING SHOWERS IN NE ND AND SCT TSRA IN WCNTRL MN THIS EVENING. DRY FOR NOW OVER TVF/BDE/BJI AREAS. DONT THINK MUCH WILL HANG AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT SO DID DROP PCPN MENTION AFTER 05Z. EVE SHIFT WILL DEVELOP BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND CAN ADD IF NEEDED. .LONGER TERM... SFC TROUGH NOW IN ERN MT WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL ND BY MID TUESDAY AFTN. NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE WILL EXIST FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL/WRN ND TUESDAY...WITH FAR WRN CWFA GETTING INTO THE ACTION POSSIBLY TUES AFTN. NEW SWODY2 DID DROP SVR THREAT FOR ND AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. DID BREAKOUT FAR WRN STRIP BORDERING WFO BIS FOR THUNDER. OTHERWISE...85H THETA E AIR DRIES OUT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DONT SEE ANY NECESSARY DYNAMICS FOR PCPN TUESDAY RED RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO MN. WILL CARRY CHC THUNDER TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT WITH TROUGH HANGING UP OVER THE FCST AREA. EXTENDED...WRN U.S. UPR RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO A MID CONTINENTAL TROF THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED MARKEDLY ON END WEEK SCENARIO...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT GFS AND KEEP SCT POPS FOR EARLY FRI AND AGAIN LATE ON SAT. WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH GFS HINTS AT NEXT UPR SHRTWV BY MON PM. TEMPS STAY GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TIL SUNDAY. .FGF...NONE. $$ RIDDLE/GUST nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 850 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF PCPN AND WHETHER TO INTRODUCE A CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z KILN ILN SOUNDING WAS DRY BELOW 11K FT. KILN RADAR WAS SHOWING LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT MOST OF IT WAS EVAPORATING ...AIDING IN THE SATURATION OF THE CURRENT DRY AIR COLUMN...OR MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS SPRINKLES. 00Z SFC MAP INDICATED LOW PRES OVER SE MO...CLOSE TO THE 23Z RUC40. THIS LOW WAS BEING PERTURBED BY AN UPR LVL S/WV OVER NRN MO. THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO TRACK NE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BEING LOCATED NEAR SDF BY 12Z TUE. ABUNDANT MOIST...STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCD WITH LOW AND LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LVL S/WV WILL COMBINED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST TO EAST ACRS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. ONE WOULD THINK THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE A GOOD BET GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR AND STRONG LOW LVL MOIST FORCING. HOWEVER...ALL ELEVATED LIS REMAIN ON THE NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SIDE (0 TO -2) FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE DAWN HOURS THAT ELEVATED LIS GO 0 TO -1 OVER THE SRN CWFA. AS A RESULT...LEAVING THUNDER OUT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT STILL LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PCPN ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR ANY HINTS OTHERWISE. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WELL IN HAND...BRINGING 100 POP TO ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THEN RAIN COOLED AIR TO FOLLOW. .ILN...NONE. HICKMAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED - NO UPDATE TO BE ISSUED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 906 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003 .SHORT TERM...THE AFTN CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH AS MOVED WELL INTO THE CSRA AND SC MIDLANDS PER KCLX RADAR IMGRY. 03/00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STNRY FNT/MOISTURE BNDRY LAYING ACROSS NE FL SNAKING BACK THROUGH SW GA INTO N-CNTRL AL WITH LOW PRES CNTRD OVR SRN MO. SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTS TO FIRE ALONG THE BNDRY THIS EVNG WHICH WL LIKELY DELAY ITS NWRD MOVEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE NGT. THIS IS BEST REFLECTED IN THE LATEST RUC BRINGS THE BNDRY INTO SE GA OVRNGT. OVRALL THIS SOLN IS PREFERRED AS BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ETA LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FNT INTO S-COASTAL SC OVRNGT. EXPANDING MID-LVL DECK NOTED ACROSS WRN GA IS INDICATIVE OF INCRG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SFC BNDRY BUT THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE CWFA WL HOLD OFF UNTIL TMRW. PC SKIES STILL ON TRACK. FOG STABILITY INDEX FM THE 00Z KJAX ROAB SHOWS ONLY A MODERATE CHANCE OF LGT RADIATION FOG OVRNGT AND WITH FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS IN PLACE ANY FOG IS XPCTD TO VRY PATCHY AND LIKELY NOT SIG ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE EITHER THE GRIDS OR FCST PRODUCTS. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER LTR TNGT AS SPEED CONVG INCRS ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT FCST HAS 20 POPS WHICH LOOKS FINE BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WL BE CONFINED TO THE GA ZONES AND PSBLY THE SC COASTAL WTRS. THE ZFP AND CURRENT SET OF GRIDS LOOK GOOD SO AN UPDATE WL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVNG. .MARINE...NO REAL CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE AS THE CURRENT FCST HANDLES TRENDS WELL. OTHER THAN A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS...NO CHANGES. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. $$ sc INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2003 ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RIDGE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST OFF SHORE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...24 HOUR DEW POINT TREND UP THIS EVENING BY A FEW DEGREES. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED ON THE FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THE SURFACE... THERMAL TROF WELL IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH STRATUS PUSHING UP THE COAST LINE. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING MAX TEMP/S SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP NOW WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...SO NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER KNOCKING HEIGHTS DOWN SOME 20 TO 30 METERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. .HNX...NONE. $$ MOLINA ca EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 235 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2003 CURRENT...STILL SOME SCRAPS OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVHD WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20-60NM MARINE ZONES ATTM. LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND NWD... AS EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPMENT/INLAND PENETRATION OF ECSB MONDAY. MOST METAR SITES ARE STILL REPORTING A LIGHT S-SW DRAFT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO BE GRADUALLY BACKING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS/AL WITH EWD MOVING SQLN SHOWING UP ON THE KMOB 88D. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A STRONG H50 VORT LOBE AS WELL AS A SOMEWHAT COUPLED LOOKING H25 JET STRUCTURE... SO SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM CONTRIBUTIONS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY ARE QUITE STRONG ATTM...ESP FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. NOSE OF ATLC DLM RIDGE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF FL. TODAY-THU...RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ATLC TODAY WHILST A GULF SFC LOW TREKS NE...STAYING WELL NW AND N OF FL. THIS WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS FROM ACTUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE THIS FAR NORTH ...AS LIGHT-MODERATE S-SW FLOW PGRAD WILL PREVAIL. ANTICIPATE THE ECSB TO FORM...BUT NOT MAKING SIGNIF INLAND PENETRATION NORTH OF THE CAPE. ABUNDANT MEAN PWAT IS IN PLACE AND THE SYNOPTIC UVM PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE ASCENDANT AS THE GULF COAST TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND UP AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE... RESULTING IN ~20M H50 HEIGHT FALLS BTWN 18Z-00Z. CURRENT FCST OF SCT STORMS LOOKS ON THE MARK AND WOULD EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FOR WED...RESIDUAL H50 TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHER MEAN PWATS TO THE NW PUSHING SE TWD ECFL. MEAN DLM FLOW PATTER DOESN'T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...THUS EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS TODAY. OP-GFS IS EVEN WEAKER WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST...A SOLN NOT SHOWN BY ETA/NGM/UKMET GUIDANCE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ETA SOLN OF NIL SFC REFLECTION WITH WEAKENING SFC FRONT GETTING STONEWALLED BY THE ATLC RIDGE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SCT CONVECTION - WELCOME TO THE WET SEASON. ONLY SHORT TERM CHANGE I CAN SEE MAKING IS TO PERHAPS NUDGE EVENING POPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SW STEERING FLOW. FRI-MON...MED RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING NWD EXPANSION OF THE DLM SUBTROP RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND FL...BUT THEN DISAGREE ON SPEED/EXTENT WITH WHICH THE AXIS GETS SUPPRESSED SWD BY ANOTHER H50 TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECM/UKM AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CNDN GGEM AND NGPS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BTWN. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FRI-SUN SHOULD BE ABREAST OF THE MID-PENINSULA ...WHICH WOULD FAVOR EQUAL COVERAGE...BUT EARLIER-MID AFTN ALONG THE COAST AND LATE AFTN-EVE INLAND. BY MON...WE MAY TREND BACK TWD THE CURRENT REGIME WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE EAST COAST...ESP LATE. MARINE...FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH @ 10-15KT...OCNLY TRENDING TWD SW OVER THE FLG-COF LEG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRC EACH AFTN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. PRELIMINARY CCF... DAB TT 091/073 088/072 088 43444 MCO TT 091/072 089/072 089 42434 MLB TT 089/073 088/073 088 43444 60= .MLB...NONE. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI AVIATION/FIRE...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 255 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN ONE OF THE TOUGHEST FORECASTS I HAVE DONE IN QUITE SOME TIME. AT 09Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ONE HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANALYSIS OF ONE HOUR LIGHTNING DATA/MOSAIC RADAR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS OCCURING IN AREA OF RUC 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE/700 OMEGA. LOOKING AT THE QPF AND 700-500 OMEGA REVEALS THAT THE ETA AND GFS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES. TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SUGGESTS THAT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY. ONE WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHWEST CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY 500 SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...OMEGA FIELDS AT 700-500 MB COME ALIVE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL FAVOR GFS/ETA REPRESENTATION HERE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES EAST. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY PER OMEGA FIELDS WITH WHAT I WOULD EXPECT TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ETA GIVE ME SOME GRIEF AS TO WHERE TO PLACE PRECIP. GIVEN THE FLOW MY THOUGHTS ARE TO FOLLOW THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR HIGHEST POPS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE HEADS THAT WAY. OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS WEDNESDAY. AVN MUCH COOLER GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP. THIS COULD BE RIGHT GIVEN SIMILAR SETUP A WEEK OR SO AGO. ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS NOT MUCH HELP EITHER. 2M ETA MATCHES ETA/FWC MOS NUMBERS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOW WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .GLD...NONE. $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL UPDATE... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 610 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 FCST PROCESS COMPLETE AND NEW GFS SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF BACKING DOWN FROM THE 00Z GFS QPF AND MAV MOS. 06Z ETA ROCK SOLID ON EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS AND COMPARABLE TO 06Z RUC. EVAP CONTS TOL/DET AREA AND WE THINK THIS TREND WILL CONT AS QPF ATTEMPTS NE PUSH INTO OUR DRY AIRMASS LATE TDY/THIS EVE. THERE WILL B NO MENTION OF PCPN IN SNE TODAY (12Z TAF WILL DROP IT AT BDL) WITH A DELAY TNGT. MAIN SHOW APPEARS WED AND LATER BOX FCSTS MAY NEED TO BACK OFF ON THE START TIME THIS EVE. CAN EASILY SEE EVENING ACTIVITIES IN CT DRY. 00Z/3 GFS ENS CONT SUPPORT OF 12Z/2 GFS ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG (THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA). TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKENING CI LATE. TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN. MARINE: LEFTOVR SEAS SCA TDY IN OUTER PVC-ACK. MAY HAVE SCA IN SRN OUTER WATERS WED? GRIDS: WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LOT MORE OCNL VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG FRI-SUN IN THE CW DUE TO HIGHER TDS. WARMEST DAY NEXT 6 SHUD B SATURDAY. .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN. IT ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US COOL. MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST, AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THE ETA MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING. BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. .BOX... CT...NONE MA...NONE RI...NONE NH...NONE MARINE...PVC-ACK OUTER WATERS SCA FOR SEAS. MTK-ACK SCA MAY B REQ WED. $$ SHORT TERM..DRAG LONG TERM...FRANK ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE #2 ANOTHER UPDATE IN 90 MIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 433 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 FCST PROCESS COMPLETE AND NEAR FINAL COORD. 06Z ETA ROCK SOLID ON EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS AND COMPARABLE TO 06Z RUC. WE'RE OFF THE 00Z GFS SOLN AND THERE WILL B NO MENTION OF PCPN IN SNE TODAY (12Z TAF WILL DROP IT AT BDL) WITH A DELAY TNGT. MAIN SHOW APPEARS WED. FOR STARTERS: WE CONTINUE IN SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS 00Z GFS QPF SOLN. 00Z/1 BUST OF OP RUN GFS QPF IN SNE LENDS SUPPORT TO DEPARTING FM ITS CURRENT AGGRESSIVE NEWD MVMT STMT. ADDITIONALLY 06Z RUC AND 06Z ETA ARE INDENT ON NEWD PROGRESS AND CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT 00Z/3 GFS IS GOING TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ITS .10 AS LEADING EDGE OF .01 FOR 12Z THIS MORNING....SO WHILE NOT YET IN THE BAG SO TO SPEAK...WE/RE THINKING DRY. WE SHUD HAVE MORE CONFIRMATION ON THIS VIA 06Z GFS IN THE NEXT 90 MIN AND ALSO A BETTER READ VIA 00Z/3 GFS ENS. WHILE NOT HAVING SEEN THE 00Z/3 GFS ENS BUT RUNNING OFF THE 12Z/2 GFS ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG (THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA). TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKG CI LATE. WE TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN. MARINE: LEFTOVR SEAS SCA TDY IN OUTER PVC-ACK. MAY HAVE SCA IN SRN OUTER WATERS WED? GRIDS: WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LOT MORE OCNL VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG FRI-SUN IN THE CW DUE TO HIGHER TDS. .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN. IT ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US COOL. MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST, AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THE ETA MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING. BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. HAVE INSERTED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S, HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT IT INTO THE FORECAST. .BOX... CT...NONE MA...NONE RI...NONE NH...NONE MARINE...PVC-ACK OUTER WATERS SCA FOR SEAS. MTK-ACK SCA MAY B REQ WED. $$ SHORT TERM..DRAG LONG TERM...FRANK ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE #1 ANOTHER UPDATE IN 90 MIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 327 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 THIS AFD AND FCST PROCESS STILL INCOMPLETE BUT TO GET OUT A COORD MESSAGE FOR SHORT TERM WE HAVE ISSUED. MORE ON ALL THIS LATER. FOR STARTERS: WE CONTINUE IN SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS 00Z GFS QPF SOLN. 00Z/1 BUST OF OP RUN GFS QPF IN SNE LENDS SUPPORT TO DEPARTING FM ITS CURRENT AGGRESSIVE NEWD MVMT STMT. ADDITIONALLY 06Z RUC AND 00Z ETA ARE INDENT ON NEWD PROGRESS AND CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT GFS IS GOING TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ITS .10 AS LEADING EDGE OF .01 FOR 12Z THIS MORNING....SO WHILE NOT YET IN THE BAG SO TO SPEAK...WE/RE THINKING DRY. WE SHUD HAVE MORE CONFIRMATION ON THIS VIA 06Z MODEL TRENDS IN THE NEXT 2 HRS. NOT HAVING SEEN THE 00Z/3 GFS ENS BUT RUNNING OFF THE 12Z/2 GFS ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG (THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA). 06Z ETA TREND MAY SWAY US TO A GFS SOLN BUT ITS OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE GFS WILL BACK OFF ON ITS 06Z RUN. TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKG CI LATE. WE PROB30 BDL AT 23Z IN DEFERENCE TO THE AGGRESSIVE GFS/UK BUT WE THINK THATS TOO QUICK. OTRW VERY DRY AIRMASS SHUD EAT UP ANY MID LVL QPF IN OUR CWA. TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN. .LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN. IT ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US COOL. MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST, AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THE ETA MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING. BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. .BOX... CT...NONE MA...NONE RI...NONE NH...NONE MARINE...NONE AT 4 AM. $$ SHORT TERM..DRAG LONG TERM...FRANK ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...APPEARS TO BE MORE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WHILE CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...IS MORE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NEITHER COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AIR...HOWEVER HIGH POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHES OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN... SHOWING A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE OUR CHANCES OF RENEWED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS AM/PM...AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS UNSTABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING AND/OR AMPLIFYING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL DIFFICULTIES IN RESOLVING THESE SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGHS ALONG WITH MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM INSTABILITY AND LIFT...MAKES THIS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT..SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA/KF SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INFLUENCE A LARGER PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...SO HIGHEST POPS STILL LOOK WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF POPLESS FORECASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH NO MAJOR LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES SHOWN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...THIS FRONT MAY SIMPLY OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS FOR NEXT SUN/MON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING THEM. OKC 78 62 79 69 / 30 30 30 50 HBR 80 62 80 69 / 80 40 30 50 SPS 83 65 82 69 / 80 40 30 50 GAG 79 57 79 66 / 90 40 30 50 PNC 73 59 76 67 / 20 20 30 50 DUA 84 65 81 69 / 30 20 30 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 415 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF UPPER LO NR CHICAGO. LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW ENTERING EXTREME SW PA...AND EXPECT RAIN WILL REACH ALL BUT OUR NE ZONES BY AROUND NOON BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THEN LL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. GFS FCST 1+ INCHES OVER MOST OF CWA WITH TOTALS APPROACHING FFG VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...SREF DATA SUGGESTS MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS...WITH LIKELY PROB OF 1+ INCH RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT PER CONVERSATIONS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SEEMS LIKE ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS WOULD BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY...AND BEST HANDLED WITH AN FLS...RATHER THAN FLOOD WARNINGS. LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE DAMP...CLOUDY AND COOL WX DURING WED...WITH LITTLE RAIN. A BETTER CHC OF RAIN WED NITE AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LO PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A SOMEWHAT BRIGHTER DAY SEEMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN PLENTY OF SC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. EXTENDED...HI PRES WILL LIKELY BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WX FRIDAY...THEN MREF DATA TRACKS SFC LO NORTH OF PA ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING WE COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY APPEARS DRY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER MIDWEST IS AS STRONG AS MONDAYS ECMWF OR CMC SUGGEST...RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MONDAY. .CTP... PA...NONE. $$ FITZGERALD pa DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 THE TAIL END OF A SQUALL LINE RESULTED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING LATE LAST NIGHT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY. THE CONVECTION DIED OUT QUICKLY AT THAT POINT HOWEVER...WITH CONDITIONS NOW QUIET FOR THE CURRENT SHIFT. THE RUC...CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE...SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CLEARING THE AREA...WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SPARKING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE RECORD HIGH AT BROWNSVILLE TODAY IS 98...BUT WILL FORECAST MID 90S AT BEST...SHY OF ANY RECORDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS...RESULTING IN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH...TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY INTERACT WITH ANY WEAK SEA BREEZE. UPPER WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL NOT SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE CAPPING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ACTS AS A FOCUS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALSO LEAD TO STORMS MIGRATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH TO ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTLINE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AVN ADVERTISING AN AREA OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING RAINFALL MOVING UP ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTLINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE MENTION OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ITS RETREAT DECREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MARINE...SEAS 4 FEET OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAY ISSUED SCEC OFFSHORE FOR WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS APPEAR TO BACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BOUNDARY (LIKELY CONVECTIVE) MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX TUES NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TX THURSDAY PROVIDING ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND. IN ADDITION... 700MB LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST ENHANCING LAPSE RATES WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AT 1300 FT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT IF ANY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AT 1500 FT. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BRO BE 095/078 094/078 090 00/00/20/20/30 HRL BE 098/077 096/077 091 00/00/20/20/30 MFE BE 100/078 098/078 092 00/00/20/20/30 RGC BE 103/076 101/076 094 00/00/20/20/30 SPI BE 091/078 091/078 088 00/00/20/20/30 BRO...NONE. 54/61 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 FCST FOCUS IS ON EXTENT OF PCPN TODAY...AND TIMING OF PCPN THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVR SW WI...WITH RUC ANALYZING 500 MB LOW CENTER IN VCNTY OF DBQ AT 07Z...IN LINE WITH 00Z ETA. WIDESPREAD PCPN SE OF STATE CLOSER TO SFC LOW WITH BETTER LOW LVL MOISTURE COUPLING WITH CVA. MODELS KEEP SOME MID LVL QG CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE OVER SRN WI TODAY AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH E-NE FLOW... REFLECTED IN 1000-850 MB LAYER RH FCSTS AND BUFKIT SNDGS BELOW 800 MB. SCT -RW MAINLY THIS AM DIMINISHING TO PATCHY DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CURRENT FCST OF A DRY WED AS SFC LO MOVS UP OHIO RVR VLY... BUT PROXIMITY OF MID LVL LO AND WRAP AROUND WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVR CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH PCPN JUST ACROSS LAKE IN LWR MI. NEXT CHC OF PCPN WILL COME THUR NGT INTO FRI AS NEXT SHRT WAVE DROPS TWDS RGN IN NW FLOW. GFS HINTS THIS SHRT WAVE WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR RGN AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO CNTRL PLAINS AND CLOSES OFF. .MKX...NONE. $$ REM wi EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 .DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE QUITE MOIST....WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. H50 TEMPS WERE NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY AT MINUS 9 DEGREES AND DO NOT SEE MUCH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE WERE STARTING TO SHOW THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE TO STORM CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY... INLAND PENETRATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. H25 ANALYSIS/MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW HELPING TO FUEL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL START TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT CONVECTION WILL GET GOING EARLIER TODAY. THESE DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE STATE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING WELL PAST SUNSET. DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT NEEDS CHANGING IN CURRENT FORECAST. .MARINE...GRADIENT FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY SO PLAN TO BUMP UP THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. .PREV DISCUSSION... CURRENT...STILL SOME SCRAPS OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVHD WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20-60NM MARINE ZONES ATTM. LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND NWD... AS EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPMENT/INLAND PENETRATION OF ECSB MONDAY. MOST METAR SITES ARE STILL REPORTING A LIGHT S-SW DRAFT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO BE GRADUALLY BACKING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS/AL WITH EWD MOVING SQLN SHOWING UP ON THE KMOB 88D. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A STRONG H50 VORT LOBE AS WELL AS A SOMEWHAT COUPLED LOOKING H25 JET STRUCTURE... SO SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM CONTRIBUTIONS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY ARE QUITE STRONG ATTM...ESP FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. NOSE OF ATLC DLM RIDGE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF FL. TODAY-THU...RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ATLC TODAY WHILST A GULF SFC LOW TREKS NE...STAYING WELL NW AND N OF FL. THIS WILL KEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS FROM ACTUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE THIS FAR NORTH ...AS LIGHT-MODERATE S-SW FLOW PGRAD WILL PREVAIL. ANTICIPATE THE ECSB TO FORM...BUT NOT MAKING SIGNIF INLAND PENETRATION NORTH OF THE CAPE. ABUNDANT MEAN PWAT IS IN PLACE AND THE SYNOPTIC UVM PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE ASCENDANT AS THE GULF COAST TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND UP AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE... RESULTING IN ~20M H50 HEIGHT FALLS BTWN 18Z-00Z. CURRENT FCST OF SCT STORMS LOOKS ON THE MARK AND WOULD EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FOR WED...RESIDUAL H50 TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHER MEAN PWATS TO THE NW PUSHING SE TWD ECFL. MEAN DLM FLOW PATTER DOESN'T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...THUS EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS TODAY. OP-GFS IS EVEN WEAKER WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE GULF COAST...A SOLN NOT SHOWN BY ETA/NGM/UKMET GUIDANCE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ETA SOLN OF NIL SFC REFLECTION WITH WEAKENING SFC FRONT GETTING STONEWALLED BY THE ATLC RIDGE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SCT CONVECTION - WELCOME TO THE WET SEASON. ONLY SHORT TERM CHANGE I CAN SEE MAKING IS TO PERHAPS NUDGE EVENING POPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SW STEERING FLOW. FRI-MON...MED RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING NWD EXPANSION OF THE DLM SUBTROP RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND FL...BUT THEN DISAGREE ON SPEED/EXTENT WITH WHICH THE AXIS GETS SUPPRESSED SWD BY ANOTHER H50 TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECM/UKM AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CNDN GGEM AND NGPS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BTWN. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FRI-SUN SHOULD BE ABREAST OF THE MID-PENINSULA ...WHICH WOULD FAVOR EQUAL COVERAGE...BUT EARLIER-MID AFTN ALONG THE COAST AND LATE AFTN-EVE INLAND. BY MON...WE MAY TREND BACK TWD THE CURRENT REGIME WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE EAST COAST...ESP LATE. MARINE...FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH @ 10-15KT...OCNLY TRENDING TWD SW OVER THE FLG-COF LEG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRC EACH AFTN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. PRELIMINARY CCF... DAB TT 091/073 088/072 088 43444 MCO TT 091/072 089/072 089 42434 MLB TT 089/073 088/073 088 43444 60= && .MLB...NONE. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 545 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003 WELL...AFTER WAITING AND WAITING FOR PRECIP TO GENERATE WHERE MODELS KEPT POINTING AT IT TO GO ITS FINALLY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG TAIL END OF VORT MAX GENERATING PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. WILL TWEAK A FEW ZONES IN ITS WAKE AND BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ---------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW----------------------- FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN ONE OF THE TOUGHEST FORECASTS I HAVE DONE IN QUITE SOME TIME. AT 09Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ONE HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANALYSIS OF ONE HOUR LIGHTNING DATA/MOSAIC RADAR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS OCCURING IN AREA OF RUC 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE/700 OMEGA. LOOKING AT THE QPF AND 700-500 OMEGA REVEALS THAT THE ETA AND GFS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES. TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SUGGESTS THAT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY. ONE WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHWEST CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY 500 SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...OMEGA FIELDS AT 700-500 MB COME ALIVE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL FAVOR GFS/ETA REPRESENTATION HERE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES EAST. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY PER OMEGA FIELDS WITH WHAT I WOULD EXPECT TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ETA GIVE ME SOME GRIEF AS TO WHERE TO PLACE PRECIP. GIVEN THE FLOW MY THOUGHTS ARE TO FOLLOW THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR HIGHEST POPS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE HEADS THAT WAY. OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS WEDNESDAY. AVN MUCH COOLER GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP. THIS COULD BE RIGHT GIVEN SIMILAR SETUP A WEEK OR SO AGO. ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS NOT MUCH HELP EITHER. 2M ETA MATCHES ETA/FWC MOS NUMBERS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOW WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY-MONDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. .GLD...NONE. $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 907 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 .UPDATED... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. THEREFORE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION THESE ZONES. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AS WELL AND MENTIONED BREEZY AS RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT TIME. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TOWARD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH BROUGHT OUR RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS LABRADOR. COOL AIR PULLING SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...BUT AS THE DAYS HEATING BUILDS THE MIXING LAYER UP TO ABOUT 5000 FEET A LAYER OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM RESULTING IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AWAY EARLY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING CONSIDERABLY IN THE TRACK AND OUTCOME OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THURSDAY. THE ETA AND UKMET AGGRESSIVELY PULL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION UP INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE OUT TO SEA. IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO WAVES OF ENERGY...ONE COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ALLOW THE NORTHERN SYSTEM TO BE MORE INFLUENTIAL WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WEAK ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PASS OUT TO SEA WITH THE DOMINANT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WED NIGHT DRY AND TREND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL IN THE VICINITY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COASTAL WATERS: NO HEADLINES. W WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT. .CAR...NONE. MCB/TD me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 940 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP/RUC ANLSYS SHOW AN UPR LVL RDG OVR NW ONTARIO N OF A CLOSED UPR LO OVR THE SRN GRT LKS. SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHES ENE-WSW FM JAMES BAY THRU NW LK SUP INTO SRN MN UNDER UPR RDGING WITH CWA IN GENERAL NE FLOW BTWN THIS SFC RDG AND SFC LO PRES IN OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO TO THE S. 12Z APX AND GOES DERIVED SDNG FM CYXZ DEPICT A VERY DRY LWR TROP BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN H75-7...SFC DWPTS ARND 40 TO THE E OF FA. 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS A SIMILARLY DRY LWR TROP BUT WITH MORE MID LVL MSTR CLOSER TO CLOSED LO TO THE S...AND SAT PIX SHOW SCT-BKN MID CLD CIGS INTO NCNTRL WL. BUT FURTHER N OVR CWA...JUST SCT-BKN CI ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LO. EVEN MORE MSTR NOTED ON 12Z INL SDNG...WITH SFC DWPTS AS HI AS THE LWR 50S ACRS NW MN. MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS FOR CLD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS. 09Z RUC SHOWS UPR/SFC RDG PRETTY MUCH REMAINING STNRY THRU DAY WITH CLOSED LO TO THE S DRIFTING ONLY SLOWLY ENE. FCST LLVL ELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF SFC RDG WL ADVECT DRIER AIR OBSVD IN THE LO LVLS OF APX/CYXZ SDNGS OVR CWA TDAY AND KEEP SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR ON GRB/INL SDNGS AT BAY. XPCT SCT-BKN CI TO REMAIN OVR CWA ALL DAY...WITH THIS HI CLD SOMEWHAT THICKER ACRS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO UPR LO. OTRW...LOOK FOR ONLY FEW-SCT CU TO DVLP INLAND OF LK BREEZES THAT WL FORM IN RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TDAY WITH INSOLATION ONLY DIMMED BY HI CLDS. MODIFIED 12Z SDNGS WITH MIXING UP TO H7 (AS OBSVD IN HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS YDAY) WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OVR INLAND AREAS ARND 73...ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE HI CLD WL BE THICKER. WITH LLVL ENE FLOW...XPCT LK MODERATION MAINLY NR LK SUP W OF MQT AND DOWNWND OF LK MI S OF ESC. IN GENERAL...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM. KC AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS... ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPR LVL PATTERN WITH THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA. SO...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH CLDS BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S MINS WITH COMPARABLE DWPTS. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. MDLS START TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER E IOWA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREV SOLNS OF SLOWLY MOVING THE LOW E ACROSS NRN IL AND IN TO E LK ERIE BY 12Z THU MORNING. THE ETA SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NE MOVEMENT...BRINGING THE LOW TO CENTRAL LK HURON BY THE SAME TIME. THE ETA SOLN WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS OVER THE E AND S CWFA FOR WED AFTN/NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SOLN WOULD KEEP THE FCST FOR WED/WED NIGHT DRY. LOOKING AT MDL TRENDS...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS. HOWEVER...THE ETA ACTUALLY AGREES WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET RUNS MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING ABOUT SOME SMALL POPS OVER THE FAR E...BUT DECIDED AGAINST DUE TO THE DRY AIR BELOW 800MB PER ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND ELY FLOW WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE OFF ON ONTARIO FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PLUS...THE GFS STILL HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND CANNOT DISMISS THAT FACT. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE CLDS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS GENERALLY THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS AROUND +10C. ALTHOUGH THE ETA SHOWS COOLER 850MB TEMPS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. NO CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST. THE GFS AND ETA ARE ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE CURRENT ONE...WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRY FCST FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE MOISTURE AND A MORE NLY ROUTE AS A TRAILING S/WV DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND MORE NE TRACK FOR THE UPR LOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE EXTENDED WITH THIS PKG. MRD .MQT...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRECIP IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS...BUT IT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY INTO DRY AIR MASS. RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP FIELD...AND BRINGS RAIN INTO SW ZONES AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW RUC FOR THE SHORT-TERM AND HOLD THE PRECIP BACK A LITTLE. WILL ALSO GO TO CAT POPS OVER WYOMING VALLEY. TWEAKED WX AND POP GRIDS OVERNIGHT ALSO...BUT SHOULD NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE ZONES. MJC ----- EARLY AM DISCUSSION ----- HIGH AND MID LVE MOISTURE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IN LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR SE KY. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND LOCATION OF LOW CENTER, ALTHOUGH MODEL IS A TAD TOO DEEP WITH LOW. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ETA ALSO INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP BUT IS A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW STRENGTH. EITHER WAY, THE MAIN MODEL DIFF AT LEAST IN TERMS OF FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THE ETA BEING THE SLOWER MODEL AND KEEPING THE PRECIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. OUR FORECAST ALREADY TRENDED TWD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND I HAVE STAYED WITH THIS IDEA. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FAR NORTH, CHC POPS MHWK VALLEY WITH LIKELY SRN TIER NY INTO NE PA FOR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY ATMOS IN PLACE. UP TO 1 INCH PSBLE ACRS NE PA WITH AMTS DECREASING TO THE NORTH. NOT CONCERNED ATTM WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS 1 INCH SHOULD NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. MUCH HEAVIER RAINS WERE HANDLED WELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND GRND WILL HAVE HAD A CPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT. PSBLY SOME LOCALAZED NUISANCE PROBLEMS, BUT DO NOT SEE NEED FOR FFA. AFTER THE SHOT OF WAA PRECIP PASSES THIS EVENING, GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THURS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SFC LOWS AND APPROACHING 5H LOW. .BGM...NONE. JML ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1014 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 FORECAST AREA BEING "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SHOWN NICELY BY 12Z KBUF SOUNDING. MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WILL HAVE A HARD TIME WORKING TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ETA/RUC SUGGESTING NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. WILL RAISE POPS IN CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE AREAS NORTH OF BUFFALO TO BATAVIA DRY. .BUF...NONE TMA ny FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 NEAR TERM/ANALYSIS...SURFACE TROF HAS PROGRESSED NEARLY TO THE MOT-BIS-PIR LINE...WHILE THE UPR LVL VORTICITY CENTER IS JUST NORTHWEST OF KPHP. RAIN SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE TWO WEAK ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE AREAS (RUC 295-300K SFCS) ...THE FIRST FROM CNTRL TO SOUTHEAST ND AND THE SECOND IN NORTHEAST ND. BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ND THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. MOTTLED SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE RRV AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH MIDDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOCALIZED WARMING AND DEVELOPMEMT OF A TEMP GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR VORT. CONVECTIVE TEMPS NER 70F IN THESE AREAS SHOULD E REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMICS WITH UPR SYSTEM SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN CWFA WITH SCT SHWRS INTO NRN CWA...WHILE THERMODYNAMICS WILL KEEP MOST TSTM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FGF AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR TEMP...WINSHIFT AND AND WORDING TWEEKS. .LONG TERM... NO CHANGES. .FGF...NONE. $$ GUST nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 NEED TO RAISE POPS TEMPORARILY FOR SOME OF THE W ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATER ON AND WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THAT HAPPENS. CLOUDS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY IN NC OK BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...ELSEWHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS. COMPLEX SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...LARGELY DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PICKING UP A BOUNDARY FROM N TX PANHANDLE E-SE ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK DRIFTING S. THIS BOUNDARY PROGGED BY MODELS TO WASH OUT LATER TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-NE AREAWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MESOETA BREAKING OUT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AGAIN BY 00Z SO WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ANYWHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 24 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003 CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...APPEARS TO BE MORE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WHILE CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...IS MORE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NEITHER COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AIR...HOWEVER HIGH POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHES OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN... SHOWING A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE OUR CHANCES OF RENEWED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS AM/PM...AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS UNSTABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING AND/OR AMPLIFYING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL DIFFICULTIES IN RESOLVING THESE SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGHS ALONG WITH MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM INSTABILITY AND LIFT...MAKES THIS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT..SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA/KF SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INFLUENCE A LARGER PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...SO HIGHEST POPS STILL LOOK WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF POPLESS FORECASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH NO MAJOR LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES SHOWN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...THIS FRONT MAY SIMPLY OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS FOR NEXT SUN/MON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING THEM. OKC 78 62 79 69 / 30 30 30 50 HBR 80 62 80 69 / 80 40 30 50 SPS 83 65 82 69 / 80 40 30 50 GAG 79 57 79 66 / 90 40 30 50 PNC 73 59 76 67 / 20 20 30 50 DUA 84 65 81 69 / 30 20 30 40 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1150 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TIER AS RAIN STRUGGLING TO MOVE NORTH. ALSO DROPPED THUNDER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPS/WINDS UNCHANGED. NO CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT. PRELIM DAY 3-7 ISC GRIDS OUT. DIRIENZO ---PREVIOUS AFD--- REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF UPPER LO NR CHICAGO. LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW ENTERING EXTREME SW PA...AND EXPECT RAIN WILL REACH ALL BUT OUR NE ZONES BY AROUND NOON BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THEN LL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. GFS FCST 1+ INCHES OVER MOST OF CWA WITH TOTALS APPROACHING FFG VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...SREF DATA SUGGESTS MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS...WITH LIKELY PROB OF 1+ INCH RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT PER CONVERSATIONS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SEEMS LIKE ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS WOULD BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY...AND BEST HANDLED WITH AN FLS...RATHER THAN FLOOD WARNINGS. LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE DAMP...CLOUDY AND COOL WX DURING WED...WITH LITTLE RAIN. A BETTER CHC OF RAIN WED NITE AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LO PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A SOMEWHAT BRIGHTER DAY SEEMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN PLENTY OF SC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. EXTENDED...HI PRES WILL LIKELY BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WX FRIDAY...THEN MREF DATA TRACKS SFC LO NORTH OF PA ON SATURDAY...SUGGESTING WE COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY APPEARS DRY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER MIDWEST IS AS STRONG AS MONDAYS ECMWF OR CMC SUGGEST...RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MONDAY. .CTP... PA...NONE. $$ FITZGERALD pa SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 213 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY). MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTORMS SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CURRENTLY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND IS LOCATED ALONG A KRTN TO NEAR KAMA LINE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING UP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM KPUB TO KLAA. SOME POST FRONTAL VFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS LOCATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WV PICS SHOW NEXT UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NW WY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT..THOUGH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS PRETTY WEAK. SO MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING/EXTENT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FCST TO INCREASE BY BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA AS MINOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE WY GLANCES ACROSS NRN CO BETWEEN 00-03Z. STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS HAS DELAYED SFC HEATING SOME...AND LATER TIMING OF SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER LATE START TO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...CAPES OF AROUND 500-1500 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEARS OF AROUND 60KTS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AREA WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE POINTS FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT... THINK BEST MCS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WHERE LOW LVL JET WILL INTERACT WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. WILL BUMP UP POPS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OUT WEST...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT BEST. MESO-ETA POOLS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. AGAIN...0-6KM SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WILL ALL DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE... AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING OF ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SCATTERED POPS OUT EAST...AND THIS LOOKS FINE AS MAIN ACTION MAY COME MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE COOLED OFF MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. FOR WESTERN AREAS...STILL LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS OVER THE HIGHER AREAS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER APPEAR WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAS ADVERTISED...THUS THINK THAT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. MIN RHS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10-20% WITH HAINES INDICES OF AROUND 6. -KT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-NEXT TUESDAY) ...MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND IMPACT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CWA UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUING PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...REINFORCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND RENEWING THE CONVECTION...AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. ONE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL GENERALLY BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS MAY KEEP IT TOO STABLE ON THE PLAINS FOR MUCH CONVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION...THE AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED ON THE PLAINS...SO THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE BETTER DAY CONVECTIVELY. THEN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. 700 MB TEMPS WERE FORECAST TO DROP TO -4C OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...BUT THE 12Z RUN IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER... DROPPING TEMPS TO ABOUT 0C. ORIGINALLY...LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 7K ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE ABOUT 9 OR POSSIBLY 8K. ANYWAY...DUE TO STRENGTH OF STORM...COOLED TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND RAISED POPS JUST A LITTLE. SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TO WANE. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT KIND OF LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PATTERN CHANGE WITH A DRIER, WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP. ~LW .PUB...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 545 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION... .OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MAIN CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LULL IN THE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DRY US OUT AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. .SHORT TERM...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC HINTS AT A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FRIDAY...GETTING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. .EXTENDED...DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT OF TEXAS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT GFS AND NCEP HAVE FRONT ABOUT BNA MONDAY MORNING AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THUS WILL PUT POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND DRY TUESDAY...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN ABOUT 24 HOURS COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECAST. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KATL 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 00 00 KAHN 65 81 63 82 / 40 20 00 00 KGVL 62 79 62 81 / 40 10 00 00 KRMG 63 81 58 82 / 30 10 00 00 KCSG 67 84 65 86 / 40 20 00 10 KMCN 67 85 65 86 / 50 20 00 00 .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. .AVIATION DISCUSSION... GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN AREA OF WARM MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 180 TO 230 DEGREES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL POSITION AND PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FORECAST AVIATION SITES. CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH PRESSURE FRONT...INDICATED IN LASTEST VIS IMAGERY...FROM HSV TO JAN. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ALABAMA BUT WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA NEAR 12Z. MID LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERS IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS OUT OF IFR EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL BE ISSUE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. $$ ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 305 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 .OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MAIN CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LULL IN THE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO DRY US OUT AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. .SHORT TERM...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC HINTS AT A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH FRIDAY...GETTING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. .EXTENDED...DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT OF TEXAS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT GFS AND NCEP HAVE FRONT ABOUT BNA MONDAY MORNING AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THUS WILL PUT POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND DRY TUESDAY...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN ABOUT 24 HOURS COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECAST. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KATL 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 00 00 KAHN 65 81 63 82 / 40 20 00 00 KGVL 62 79 62 81 / 40 10 00 00 KRMG 63 81 58 82 / 30 10 00 00 KCSG 67 84 65 86 / 40 20 00 10 KMCN 67 85 65 86 / 50 20 00 00 .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. $$ 26 ga SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 351 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR LOUISVILLE KY. THE 12Z RAOBS SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES REGION AND SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 5K FT. THIS DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DETROIT AREA. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND CHICAGO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST INTO NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND GIVEN THE TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE DEEPER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. 850 TO 700MB THETA-E WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MESO ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. I WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR TOLEDO. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST ASCENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW 10 MB. THEREFORE...I WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB REGION. AT THIS POINT...I WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR PORT HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR AS THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS PROGGED. I WILL TAPER POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO PULL EAST. A SURFACE-700MB RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING DRYER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS. I WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AS THE ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER 6 C/KM. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. SCATTERED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS. I DID HOWEVER LOWER THEM A COUPLE DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY EVEN KEEP SOME LOCALS NEAR LAKE HURON IN THE 40S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS ACTUALLY LIFTS THIS WAVE EAST BY SUNDAY AND DEVELOPS A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS THIS WAVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW...WHICH THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPELL A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP ON MONDAY. THE UKMET...CANADIAN AND ETAXX DO NOT DEVELOP THIS WAVE. INSTEAD...THEIR SOLUTIONS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM THE WAVE ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER THIS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE GFS AND GIVEN SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ETAXX/UKMET/CANADIAN...I AM NOT READY TO ACCEPT THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ETAXX/CANADIAN/UKMET IDEA AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRY A DRY FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. .DTX...NONE. $$ EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) CONSIDINE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 239 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003 KBUF RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD NEAR A JAMESTOWN TO WELLSVILLE LINE. RAIN SHIELD HAS A SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST DRIFT. RUC/ETA/MM5 KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE JUST BRUSHING SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING AND THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY. SURFACE WAVE OVER THE LOWER VALLEY WILL GENERATE WEAK AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS LIFT AREA STAYS GENERALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLAN ON MENTIONING POPS ONLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A BUFFALO TO BATAVIA LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WAVE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED LIFT DIMINISHING. GFS/ETA IN GENERAL AGREEMENT KEEPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING IT AND LIFTING IT EAST. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE OVER OHIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOW THEREFORE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...IF NOT EARLIER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WORK ACROSS THE AREA. .BUF...NONE. $$ TMA ny SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2003 DAY ONE... SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED BY MORNING SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORTED BY LATEST UA DATA AND WV IMAGERY. IN FACT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN NM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL WX FEATURES REASONABLY WELL. AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH PERHAPS A MESO-LOW SITUATED BETWEEN TCC AND CVS. A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ERN NM MESO-LOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN TX PANHANDLE...FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO SOUTH OF CDS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT NEARLY BI-SECTS THE LBB CWFA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS CREATED MODERATE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...PULLING DEEP BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WWD. INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM NE TO SW ACCORDINGLY WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE NE ZONES TO GREATER THAN 3500 J/KG ACROSS THE SW ZONES. COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE HAS CREATED A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST SWODY1...SWOMCD AND HWOLBB FOR DETAILS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COALESCE INTO MCS BY LATE EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS...BRINGING MOST AREAS AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL. QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH RESPECT FOR WEDNESDAY/S TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANY OUTFLOW-INDUCED CLOUD COVER LIKELY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO NEAR 140W-145W BY TUESDAY WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A WEAK/FLAT RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE RELIGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL PUSH A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEAR ZONAL BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WITH THUS KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. FCSTID = 08 FRIONA 59 78 58 79 / 60 20 40 20 TULIA 60 77 59 77 / 60 20 30 20 LUBBOCK 66 81 62 81 / 60 20 30 20 BROWNFIELD 66 85 64 83 / 60 20 40 20 CHILDRESS 63 75 64 80 / 60 20 30 20 ASPERMONT 68 80 67 83 / 60 20 30 20 .LBB...NONE. $$ tx