WTPA41 PHFO 261430
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052006
500 AM HST WED JUL 26 2006

A FRESH BATCH OF CB...THE FIRST IN OVER 24 HOURS...HAS BURST TO LIFE 
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF 
DANIEL. THESE CB ARE OVER 100 NM FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER...KEEPING 
DATA T NUMBERS LOW IF THEY CAN BE DEFINED AT ALL. INITIAL INTENSITY 
IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THE 1130 UTC PHFO CI NUMBER OF 2.0 AND THE 
ADMITTEDLY OLD 0500 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SMALL 
HANDFUL OF 30 KT WIND BARBS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN TO 
DISSIPATION...WITH THE NEW CB LIKELY THE RESULT OF NIGHTTIME CLOUD 
TOP COOLING AND LOCAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT 
DANIEL WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND 
MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD. TAU THREE MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT BUT 
FOR MOST OF THE PAST 12 HOURS DANIEL HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH 
THE 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 40N150W EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOURS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FAULT THIS PERSISTENT TRACK 
GUIDANCE TREND. INDEED...SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS SHOW 
THAT DANIEL MAY BE BEGINNING TO MOVE AGAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE 
BETWEEN GFS AND CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOTION IS SLOWER AT 
ALL TAU STEPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DANIEL/S APPARENT SLUGGISHNESS. IT IS 
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MOST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO 
THE LEFT SINCE THE LAST ROUND. THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO 
DISSIPATE AT TAU 36 BEFORE REACHING 150W.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 16.1N 143.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.2N 144.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N 146.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER POWELL