Despite recent economic sluggishness in Asia and economic crises in Russia and the countries of the Former Soviet Union, global energy consumption is projected to reach 612 quadrillion Btu in 2020, according to the reference case projection in the Energy Information Administration's International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99). If that level is reached, total consumption will have nearly tripled in 50 years (see figure). Much of this growth will be driven by rising demand in the developing world (Africa, the Middle East, Central and South America, and parts of Asia), where energy consumption in 2020 is projected to be 6 percent higher than in the industrialized world.
Although its share of world energy consumption is projected to decline somewhat, oil will continue to be the dominant energy source. Oil prices in 1998 fell to levels not seen since the 1970s. Prices are unlikely to recover quickly, but the IEO99 projection of $23 per barrel (1997 dollars) in 2020 remains little changed from last year's forecast. World oil consumption should reach 110 million barrels per day, more than half of it going to fill the tanks of the world's 1.1 billion automobiles.
Use of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy is projected to expand, with natural gas posting the most rapid growth (an average of 3.3 percent annually from 1990 through 2020). Reliability and comparatively low capital costs will help fuel the boom in natural gas generating capacity. Little increase in demand for coal is foreseen in the industrialized nations through the forecast period, but strong demand in the developing world drives growth in coal use at a rate of 1.6 percent per year. Renewable energy consumption grows about 2.0 percent per year, but low fossil-fuel prices prevent any increase in its share of the total. Of the major energy sources, only nuclear power actually declines, due to public opposition, nagging difficulties in handling wastes, and competition from natural gas. Despite net additions to nuclear generating capacity in Japan and certain developing nations, world total capacity is projected to fall 0.4 percent per year as nations with long-established nuclear programs retire aging reactors.
Ratification of the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol could affect many of these projections. In particular, industrialized nations might reduce their consumption of fossil fuels by the equivalent of up to 30 million barrels of oil per day. Possible alternatives include fuel switching, emissions trading, and other types of offsets. Nuclear power might become more attractive as well. Absent reductions in fossil fuel consumption, world carbon emissions are projected to reach 9.8 billion tons per year in 2020, 70 percent above 1990 levels.
In addition to chapters on individual fuels, IEO99 discusses transportation energy use and the impact of environmental issues on world energy consumption. Appendixes detail projections under high and low economic growth scenarios and review the performance of past IEO forecasts.
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File last modified: April 27, 1999
